Trump f**ks EU on trade | stocks sad

Taco Trump is back at it again now with

a push for a minimum of 15 to 20% tariff

on all European Union goods as well as

rejecting the potential of reducing

sectoral tariffs on European Union cars.

You have to remember this bottom line

with Trump. Donald Trump wants the

money. He wants the income. They brag,

brag, brag about the federal revenues

from tariffs. And yes, they are up. The

monthly tax receipts for revenues are

excellent. 27.2 billion in June.

Incredible. Let's be real, though. We

also just passed $3.2 trillion worth of

debt over the next 10 years, which more

than offsets the annual potential income

that you would be getting from tariff

revenues. Also worth remembering that

somebody's got to pay for these. We're

already seeing the damage show up under

the hood on the underlying goods side of

CPI, PPI, company earnings. Yes, we

still have delayed tariff impacts

because of inventory buildup, which

keeps getting delayed because of taco.

But the higher the stock market goes,

the more the market gives Donald Trump a

license to implement higher tariffs,

which at some point the economy is going

to absorb and get hit with. So far, Q2

was good. Q1 not so great. Q2 good

because of the offset of uh our trade

pull forward. Where are we going to go

from here? Who knows? 102 yield curve.

If we go look at the yield curve

suggests ah we're in shock territory

again 56 basis points. But what's the

news here? Donald Trump has escalated

his demands in trade negotiations with

the European Union pushing for a minimum

tariff of 15 to 20% in any deal with the

European Union. That's the entire

European Union. Uh which as a whole I

want to say they're our largest trading

partner. Eura, um, Canada and Mexico are

pretty big, but you, the entire European

Union, let me see, trade with United

States, if you put them in as a block,

you had $851 billion uh, billion euros

of bilateral trade with the European

Union. Uh, that would work out to about

a trillion dollars of trade. Trade with

Mexico, United States, that sat at $839

billion. So the European Union beat

Mexico. China sits at roughly 600

billion and Canada sits at about 762

billion. So the entire block is our

largest trading partner above China,

above Mexico, above Canada individually.

The US president's hardened stance aims

to test the European Union's pain

threshold. Keep in mind, they keep

suggesting that they're going to delay

their reciprocal tariffs and reduce sort

of the goods that they're going to

reciprocally tariff us on uh until at

least August 1st. Taco really doesn't

begin until right after the Fed meeting.

Fed meeting is scheduled for July 30th.

Mr. Too late coupon code expiration for

the Meet Kevin courses on building your

wealth is today. So, you've got the

lifetime access uh either price going up

or we'll just go remove the lifetime

access and go back to the monthly option

for all the courses, trade alerts, the

alpha report like our strategies this

morning. Talked a lot about hood this

morning, open door, all the others. You

know this already. Uh mark your calendar

for that. So, that's today. The 30th is

the Fed meeting and then on the 1st is

Taco August. So, we'll have to see. Now,

Waller obviously pushing for a rate cut

on July 30th. It's unlikely we're

actually going to get it. We'll be

covering it live. Uh but August 1st is

the next big deadline because that's the

end of the extension post the 90-day

pause which has continue to allow uh

countries to pick up inventories uh at a

10% rate. Right? Inventory buildup

before April

had a 2.2% trade weighted average tariff

rate. After April and following the

pause, we sat at about an average 10%

tariff rate. Trump really wants tariffs

to be probably at somewhere an average

of about 18 to 22%. You're seeing that

here with the EU deal. And really, the

market at all-time highs gives him this

license. I mean, it's no surprise that

on this news, the cues are falling, but

you're literally falling off all-time

highs we just made this morning. The

trend has been absolutely incredible on

the cues. straight up breaking through

all-time high after all-time highs. Uh

and and this gives Trump a silver

platter of a license to keep being more

aggressive on trade deals because mostly

we think taco will end up coming through

and there'll be some lastminute

negotiation or another delay or a pause

blahy blahy blah. People familiar with

negotiations say Trump has also been

unmoved by the EU's latest offer to

reduce car tariffs and would be happy to

keep duties at 25% as planned. EU trade

commissioner gave a downbeat assessment

of his recent talks in Washington with

US EU ambassadors on Friday. Not good.

In other words, negotiations not looking

good. This is where you kind of start

putting together like

Trump really hasn't negotiated a trade

deal with China. We're at 55% tariffs

now threatening even more tariffs.

Although the the framework around the

edges keep shifting now we want battery

tariffs but we're going to give H20s and

we kind of keep moving on threatening

pharmaceutical tariffs. Are we going to

get the death penalty for fentanyl

tariffs? Maybe. Does that make a

difference over here? Who knows? Uh then

you know we got the UK trade deal.

Indonesia. Uh, and some of these deals

are are great. Vietnam, but they're also

at relatively high levels for Vietnam,

uh, for example, uh, and, uh, what

you're seeing with, uh, Indonesia. Uh,

the United Kingdom is probably the

lowest at 10%. But that's a trade

surplus country. All the others are

really, unless you're willing to take 18

to 22% tariffs, you're not getting a

trade deal with us. You're just going to

get assigned these higher levels. And

this makes us wonder, okay, how are

these negotiations going?

Negotiation with Putin didn't go well.

See, uh, one US, uh, and now there's

obviously there's reporting coming out

that even our deals with Iran or our

strikes against Iran weren't as

successful as potentially thought with

maybe only one of three facilities being

completely destroyed, the other two

still being active, but or or

potentially able to be active within the

next few months again, which isn't

great. which also comes after US Sentcom

reported on the seizure of a bunch of uh

military equipment to the Houthies from

the Iranians.

That's not great. Uh this was actually

just reported a few days ago. You can

follow him on uh Twitter, US uh let me

see, was it this one? No, I can't

remember exactly where it was, but it

was uh US Sentcom showed uh the seizure

of um deliveries from the Iranians to

the Houthies just a few days ago. And

then it makes you wonder like, "Wait a

minute. I thought I thought the Iranians

were talking and negotiating with us.

What's going on? Y'all are actually

still secretly arming the Houthies."

US Sentcom reports that Yemen partners

successfully intradict uh massive

Iranian weapon shipment bound for the

Houthies. Here you could find the

weapons arsenal. Uh you could find the

ship where it was found on. You could

see the rockets, the warheads. Not

great.

Going back to this piece over here, the

position puts the EU in a bind as it

approaches the August 1 deadline where

Trump said he'll be willing to impose a

30% tariff. The U EU has indicated would

retaliate over such a move, but is

divided over taking counter measures and

may be forced to accept a baseline of

more than 10% in any deal. At some

point, somebody's going to pay for that.

likely corporates in higher uh uh you

know expenses and therefore lower EPS.

Whether we can still create sectoral

rules, whether we can treat individual

sectors differently from another from

others is still an open question. Trump

seems to insist on permanent reciprocal

tariffs of 15 to 20%. Which would

basically be as high as they were in

April and end up leading to EU

retaliation. You've also got sectoral

tariffs as high as 50% on aluminum. We

don't want a trade war, but we want to

know uh if the US will leave us a

choice. Second EU diplomat said that the

mood has clearly changed in favor of

retaliation. Trump sparked global stock

market turmoil in April. Now we're

actually potentially starting to see the

the real impacts of we're going to land

on some of these.

The US plans several packages of counter

tariffs but has repeatedly pushed back

its implementation as Donald Trump is

trying to push back his implementation.

So both of nobody wants these tariffs to

go into effect except well frankly Trump

cuz he wants that revenue. Uh and so uh

in other words we'll see where it goes.

Uh a person familiar with the latest

proposal said it would include levies on

digital services and online advertising

revenue for counter tariffs. So far

those some of those countermeasures on

digital service taxes like from the

United Kingdom at least against US

companies have been dropped. But the

United Kingdom also trade surplus nation

struck a deal with the US. That doesn't

mean the entire European Union will

follow suit especially after Brexit. So

I guess we'll see. But uh I guess we

have to make a bet. Do we go for more

taco?

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes. Congratulations, man.

You have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you.

>> Kevin Papra there, financial analyst and

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

get your take.