$h*t

hey everyone me Kevin here oh my gosh

this Market is just insane Tesla's down

five percent while the nasdaq's up one

percent it was vacillating plus or minus

this morning you got to whack up 65

you've got indicators saying after the

inversion of the threes and tens and

after elections things should go green

and Peak capitulation tends to come

right before elections you've got a lot

of drama about drum Powell being at

overly peacockishness and that just wait

until CPI rotates you've got the hopium

that China's gonna open up you've got

opium that Russia is finally gonna solve

you got opium that the winter is gonna

be a okay in Europe there's a lot of

hopium there's a lot of weirdness

everything's just kind of a disaster or

it's just another normal day in the

stock market you see my view here is

because obviously we're in a situation

where you know we're kind of skidding

along bottoms for many different stocks

and even stocks that are green like to

act up 66 that darn things down to 29

back when I went on uh Newsmax I told

them when it was 145 dollars that the

thing was gonna Trend back to ten

dollars and probably go to ten dollars

Now it only made it back to 15 but still

it's at 29 now that's almost double

since it hit 15 okay so what's the

madness that's going on what's driving

the insanity in the markets today

because quite frankly it doesn't seem to

be any kind of like massive news in one

sector that is moving uh other sectors

as well and so sure you've got

corporations dumping Bonds on the market

like crazy which when they dump Bonds on

the market you see uh all of a sudden uh

bond prices fall bond yields go up as

bond yields go up what do you have you

have more of an attractiveness to buy

bonds rather than stocks right because

you have to then assign a greater risk

premium to stock let me clarify that

simply if you could get four and a half

percent on treasuries right now risk

free and they just went up again today

why would you invest in stocks for a six

percent return potentially right maybe a

nine percent return but still you have

to assess that risk premium that you're

willing to assign the difference between

four and a half and six or seven or

eight or whatever you expect the market

will actually return now hopefully

stocks will give us a sweet old twenty

percent fifty percent maybe even a

double trouble for certain stocks over

the next year but hope is not an

investing strategy but I will tell you

something that seems to be very

consistent and as much as I've done so

many statistics and reports and prior

videos I want to keep this one really

simple and just straight between us

right before an election you are always

going to get Peak Insanity literally

Peak Insanity every fund manager would

be a complete idiot to buy right before

the before an election if they had to

answer to Pension funds or corporations

or or other fund managers like managing

fund managers why would that be why

would that be think about that for a

moment why would institutions want to

maybe sit this week out no it's not just

the election okay we'll talk about that

but why would institutions want to sit

this week out and how could things

actually turn

over the next week or so now we'll see

no guarantees I'm not calling for a

bottom but why could some of the

insanity we're seeing today be temporary

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welcome back so my thought dwac is up 66

at the time of this recording why

because there's the belief that Donald

Trump is going to announce his candidacy

for president a lot of folks thought he

would make way for Ron DeSantis but

apparently Donald Trump is already

working out nicknames for Ron DeSantis

like Ron Des sanctimonious

yeah so Donald Trump is already

preparing his fight against Ron DeSantis

but that could actually be okay within

the Republican party because even if the

Republican Party chose to elevate Donald

Trump during the sort of primary season

leading up to the primaries and

throughout debates over the next eight

months that we'll see Ron DeSantis could

actually set up his own platform for a

potential post uh uh other Republican

nominee which could be Donald Trump

right uh election in 2028 so this is

actually a very typical strategy

generally you don't pull off with the

Democratic party pulls off where they

just collude and say no no we will only

have one candidate nobody will fight

anyone else that's kind of what they do

in California just look at Gavin Newsom

and the campaign I ran against him no no

we shall have no other options there is

only one the party has decided and

everyone has one choice that is it yeah

that's literally what happened in

California last year uh during the

recall election pretty disgusting but

enthusiasm over Donald Trump's SPAC dwac

and the stock leading to a basically a

2X rally is such that Donald Trump is

willing to accept his invite back to

Twitter however he says he's found home

at truth social and therefore if you

want to be a part of all of the well

let's just say Madness that happens in

the election cycle over the next uh oh

sorry it's not eight months 18 months uh

actually more be eight months plus a

year right so about over the next 20

months the crazy Madness that we're

gonna see over the next 20 months then

you're gonna have to be on Truth social

so you're going to see a lot of

reporters flock to truth social when a

lot of reporters are on Truth social

they're going to report what Donald

Trump said on Truth social and that is

going to literally be the greatest free

advertising for Donald Trump's social

media platforms or social even I'm

talking talking about it I think if you

took a shot every time I just said truth

social you'd probably die don't do that

so that's one thing so you know when we

go over here and when we look and we're

like oh yeah okay truth social dwax at

the top at 66 sure is it a money-making

business is it a good investment

probably not but it leaves you know then

again I don't want to say that at 29

because look you know this is the kind

of stock that has low liquidity uh and

fundamentally it might not make sense

but even you know low liquidity stocks

that are terrible with fundamentals will

do very very well because they just get

more attention think about it just the

fact that it's up 66 is going to lead to

more people you know talking about oh

Donald Trump's stock is up double in the

last few weeks and then more people Pile

in it's the crazy herd and sheep

mentality this is just so typical so why

then are we seeing for example Tesla

down five percent this is a year over

year low a 12 month low for Tesla why

folks it's simple this is a referendum

on Elon Musk Bloomberg all day long

really over the last about 20 hours

because they started this yesterday

afternoon Sunday afternoon uh basically

the entire 20 uh uh hours we have had

the Elon Musk lamb basted on Bloomberg

suggesting that Elon Musk is somehow

insane because he fired thousands of

workers and now he's calling some of

them back

he's apparently only calling back like

maybe a few dozen which is like yeah I

mean if you just type in I mean let's

just type in a few dozen 48 divided by

3750 right that's one percent hey

sometimes groups get fired and you're

like oh no that person was actually good

you know like we'd actually take them

back and we know we'll pay him a little

bit more like that's not a terrible

thing but what everybody's trying to do

is blast Elon Musk to make him look like

an idiotic leader oh let's fire

everybody oh look you're losing

advertisers left and right in my opinion

it's just straight up slander like give

the man a chance obviously I think

things should be run a little bit

differently at Twitter I think Elon Musk

should have come in and said listen all

advertisers done nobody gets

advertisements on Twitter now all of a

sudden all the users are happy it's

temporary it's just a temporary gift and

you tell all the advertisers we'll let

you know when we get our stuff back

together because the problem is if you

want to go back to the advertisers in

three months and they already said I'm

done with your platform you go back to

the advertisers like hey we have this

new system will you come back there like

dude we made a public statement that

we're done with you like maybe in a few

years it's hard for people to save face

and actually come back after they made a

public statement that they're leaving

your platform sure they can flip-flop

but we all know that flip-floppers get

land-basted even more you know I had

this great idea that I was going to

become a pilot over the next three

months and I promptly flip-flopped on

that idea although I learned a lot

[Laughter]

um true story

anyway so

um yeah look I mean we're in a we're in

a very painful era right now does it

make logical sense that open doors down

14 yeah that's one of the few that makes

logical sense does it make logical sense

that carvana's down 98 okay probably a

little overstretched I mean the used car

market has popped right you had no cars

to Sally so you weren't making any

commissions now we're seeing used car

values plummet so your margins are

getting even Tighter and you spent all

these money all this money on used car

vending machines and now people are

demanding more customer service not less

see back when there were no cars your

model worked great carvana because

people didn't care to test drive they

just wanted a car now buyers have buying

power and you have to support test

drives which you didn't build into your

infrastructure before as well as you

could have or as well as you would have

expected uh with with you know what was

deemed to be this sort of changing

consumer Dynamic that they'll buy cars

from a vending machine and uh yeah oops

Yeah no but look across the board it's

paying main end face phenomenal freaking

earnings down to 270. now and phase I'm

a little bit concerned about going into

uh residential and Investments declining

as we saw in the last GDP report and we

expect that to continue for q1 Q2 Q4

will probably actually do very well for

end phase because you get the end of the

year tax credit rush but uh q1 Q2 are

the ones that I'm concerned about for uh

for for end face but it this is a very

very very difficult time and what I

would say for those of you who are in

the market first of all if you're

shorting the market like congratulations

you've just continuously been killing it

all year long because you haven't been

fighting the FED right you're patiently

waiting you're doing the right thing

which is you're patiently waiting for

the Federal Reserve to actually U-turn

we're not talking about pivot we're not

talking about going from straight to

left which is a pivot or from straight

to 45 degrees which is a pivot think

basketball we're talking about full long

got the ball out of here right that's a

180. uh that's that's a U-turn that's

what we're looking for u-turns are 180s

so uh it's gonna be another hot minute

so earlier in this video I said that I

don't actually think if you're a fund

manager you should be investing before

this week so why is that well think

about it folks you've got an insane

amount of earnings coming out you've got

consumer data coming data coming out

like crazy uh you're gonna have data on

for example a firm how are those buyers

doing uh in terms of uh their buy now

pay later how's gen Z doing a huge

consumer base using buy now pay later

like crazy how are you going to buy a

firm or really any companies in consumer

discretionary without knowing how those

buying Trends are doing in the latest

reports why would you buy those right

now you wouldn't because not only are

you waiting for that earnings data but

you're also waiting for the election

tomorrow what if Democrats maintain in

some fluky way full control I mean you

could trust the polls and say no it's

definitely going to be split but we

tried that in 2018 uh sorry we tried

that in 2016 and trusting the polls just

didn't work y'all remember 538 I'm

surprised they haven't rebranded

themselves to 5 30 lie but anyway

look

we have no idea what's going to happen

with the election if we get a split

election it should be good for stocks

that's why Elon Musk is now as the CEO

of the Free Speech platform that costs

you eight dollars coming out and

tweeting that you should vote for

Republicans to purposely split Congress

so nothing happens

again the referendum on Elon Musk as a

leader because he's now all of a sudden

becoming a political figure

anyway it's fine it's fine I I don't get

me wrong like I never want to come

across as an Elon hater because I'm a

big Elon fan I think most people know

like heaven you're one of the farthest

things from Elon hater uh but I I think

of myself as like

slightly to the Elon side of the middle

but I'm not like oh Elon could do no

wrong there he makes mistakes he's human

totally normal understandable the things

I think he could do better if he had

somebody by his side you know just to

kick him in the butt every so often

that's okay I'm probably like that

myself anyway uh to some degree I see a

lot of similarities in that and so I I

love Elon don't get me wrong but you

know why are you seeing Tesla stock down

Elon

okay it's that simple so uh I mean

fundamentally it's not like okay okay

well okay well well well fundament I was

gonna say fundamentally it's not like

we're not expecting to sell all of the

vehicles that Tesla's manufacturing but

I will say those delivery time frames

have basically compressed to like zero

the lead times and that's something that

I've always said is like a red flag I

hate saying this but Peloton when I when

I sold it like really high at like 113 I

sold because the lead times compressed

to like zero and now pretty much every

model on the Tesla website is November

delivery with the exception of the uh

model three long range

which they're just not offering

deliveries on right now and the model y

uh long range which gives you uh

December delivery the model y

performance is available for delivery in

November maybe that's because they're

getting ready to slash the price and

they probably will have to and the

market is pre-pricing that in but I

think a lot of the action we're seeing

now is a referendum on Elon Musk and

that just happens to be adding the story

because if growth does slow down for

Tesla

okay yeah then then we got even more

oopsie-doopsies but we'll see uh I'm

optimistic that uh tassels will continue

to be sold I do expect a price cut at

some point here in the near future and

uh that'll that'll prop us right back up

I would assume when the backlog gets to

you know if we need to do if we're doing

450 000 vehicles in the next quarter 450

000 vehicles uh divided by three is uh

on Pace to about 150 000 Vehicles a

month I would say we're probably good

through the end of the year with order

backlog uh which is fine because it's

tax credit season anyway I would think

that in January there's a good shot at

seeing a price drop and that'll really I

think Propel Demand right after that

sort of tax benefit lapses it doesn't go

away but it's just the benefit is

realized really at the end of the year

uh for the next tax season coming up so

if you take it in January you're not

really getting that until the April

following which is like 15 months later

right so you do the price cutting

January probably the most strategic and

ideal time but otherwise this is just

this is a market that should not be

investing at the moment with expression

especially because you have CPI data

coming out on Thursday Thursday we're

expecting a 0.6 month over month a bump

in CPI which is like a 7.2 percent Pace

really really strong very very high and

so again going back to the manager

mentality why would you be investing

this week you have an election tomorrow

you have earnings coming up you have

uncertainty about CPI it's a disaster

you have nothing good to look forward to

this week until you actually get the

facts and if the facts say it's good

news maybe then we can actually have a

sustained bottom under this Market but

if we get bad news you go into the

downside and you look like an idiot if

you bought this week

oh

or any time before this week

watching we'll see you next one good

luck everyone bye