The Last Negative Catalyst for Crypto.

all right folks so here's something that

does concern me a little bit and and

this is not designed to be crypto 5

because you know that i love a crypto uh

but there can be truth in fear

uncertainty and doubt right i actually

like taking advantage of true fun like

true fear true uncertainty true doubt uh

because those are the opportunities that

i like investing now obviously

the opportunity to buy

something like cardano at a buck

we had we had that opportunity i sent

out alerts like two or three times when

i was at a buck in the stocks on

psychology and money group we talked

about it on the channel we talked about

it everywhere uh and uh which if you're

not a part of yet make sure to use the

coupon code down below take advantage of

that 40 off price does go up over time

and new lectures coming out this weekend

uh so uh anyway

what is a potential set of fud that

could come out with crypto

going forward so on july 18th and 19th

we had uh fud over the grayscale bitcoin

trust lockups which led to a surge of

sales and after the surge of sales we

ended up with

with falling prices we hit lows

around the 19th and 20th in fact let's

go ahead and go back to those days let's

go to the day chart

okay and let's go jump in over here look

at that here's the 18th on cardano

here's the 19th and 20th right after

like literally the two days after the

lockup if i even did a video on this

channel saying

hey write down july 18th it's going to

be a big day this is why you got to

subscribe but anyway the same was pretty

much true of all the coins this is very

very clearly correlated with the uh the

lockups here same bottom 29 295 right on

btc so

what is a potential leftover catalyst

that we have for crypto that's a

negative like what is the the only thing

that i see that's left so first of all

the d5 hack did like nothing to our

mainstream kryptos which is great

i mean you would expect that you would

expect the mainstream kryptos and

centrify uh c5 basically to be totally

fine after the d5 hack did if i hack hey

we'll see what ends up coming out of

that

but what's more interesting to me is the

potential for another negative catalyst

this year

what is the only one that there could be

think about it

one of the reasons one of the big

reasons folks invest in crypto

is as a true

inflation hedge

about 40 to 50 percent of people invest

in crypto for that reason to escape

money printing to escape fiat to escape

government intervention

and and to really have

a people's currency

well what happens

if

and and potentially it begs the question

as to why we're starting to see a sell

down a little bit towards the end of

yesterday and today

it makes me wonder what happens if all

of a sudden we start seeing those

inflationary figures and i know we don't

all believe in the cpi

but what happens if we start seeing cpi

reports coming in showing deflation and

used car prices oh my gosh use car

prices instead of being flat went down

negative four percent and they offset

rent prices going up by i don't know a

third of a percent or or less i mean

last time i think they went uh last

report they went up just 2.2 percent you

know those numbers don't come in

and then all of a sudden we start seeing

the august reading which comes out in

september coming at 4.7 or something

like that for inflation then the

september reading uh coming out in in

october

comes in at i don't know 3.8 and we end

up at like 2.9 or 2.5 by november think

about that for

right now we're at five to five and a

half percent on the cpi readings

and imagine we get to november

and the inflation readings are at two

and a half percent

and the fed says hey you know we started

tapering because i do expect them to

taper but because we started tapering

early and inflation is going uh down

it looks like our taper is working watch

them take credit for the taper working

anyway it looks like the taper's working

inflation's going down and then you know

what they'll say looks like we might not

have to raise rates until 2023 after all

that could be very very good

for uh for some of our tech stocks very

very good if they if they end up

delaying rate increases because

inflation comes down at the same time

the taper that's great like at first

a lot of us were fearful of the taper

coming and it makes sense that we would

be fearful of the taper coming because

the taper coming is a signal that soon

after a taper rates are going to go up

but one fed board member yesterday

spilled the beans he gave us the juice

he said here's the thing

if we take the foot off the gas now

we won't have to hit the brakes as soon

because we'll just roll out that's a

really good analogy

really really good analogy i hate to say

it i like it but just to make that clear

foot off the gas means no more printing

money hitting the brakes means raising

rates so if you take your foot off the

gas now

maybe you don't even need the break

it'll be interesting to see what that

does or the fear of that does to crypto

no don't get me wrong i believe that

crypto

is going to do very very well in 2022

but if inflation reflects down i wonder

if there will be a short-term trade

opportunity where you sort of get up by

the dip

anyway

that's just my

thesis it's something that i'm going to

be paying attention to and maybe maybe

i'm just saying that because

i didn't buy enough during the last

steps i i you know i loaded up a few

hundred thousand dollars i wish i put in

more i didn't

uh so who knows maybe maybe i'm biased

because i'm just trying to look for

another dip opportunity but

realistically

what what else you know right now we

don't have a lot of other crypto fear or

fud on the horizon uh you've got the

north american miners are kicking but

after all the chinese fud that we had of

them kicking out the miners so what this

is this is great for uh

like honey mining for example in fact if

anything you'd probably want to buy buy

stock in some of these now of course

unless it rotates down more because

consider this i mean look you've got uh

right blockchain you've got marathon

you've got uh a hudding mining

these are some pretty incredible north

american miners but the price of their

companies because they hold so many

crypto assets mostly bitcoin at least it

had eight

uh is so

tied to the value of crypto that if

crypto falls obviously these guys will

crash as well so uh but you just have to

know that the value of these is is

almost perfectly correlated to um

whatever the price of bitcoin is at the

moment but anyway uh these are these are

things to keep an eye on the one thing

that you can do which is pretty cool

is you can go in and you account you can

actually buy options on something like a

hudding mining which you can't do on

bitcoin so

if you do have that similar uh trading

path in theory you could go in here on a

red day like today and go yellow some

call options now i generally don't

recommend yellowing call options but

let's say you wanted to buy a call

uh for for honey mining

for five dollars so it's nicely in the

money here i mean you're basically

paying 770. that's too expensive uh

that's too much for me i wouldn't do

that uh maybe what i would do though is

i would sell a put let me see

so i'll put i'm not getting a lot of

money for doing that

that's not that great

let's see here

560 bucks let's do a quick look 506 for

10 times 5 times 100

500 it gives me about 10 percent

let me go out to

march

13. oh

1370 divided by 5 grand

oh my goodness those are nice

whoa

whoa

those are nice right now

wow

wait a second

so this would be like buying

the stuff which you might not get it

because it could run away from you right

if crypto runs but you'd milk a big fat

credit here this would be like buying it

for

uh what is that three dollars and

i might my brain is too slow right now

63 cents

3.63 so if you wanted to buy honey

binding right now for 3.63

you could do that by selling puts but

there's a chance you might never get it

if it sells over five dollars come uh

march 2022.

interesting

so now if i went for

i don't know i'm just going to go crazy

for a second just to see what it looks

like if i bought a thou okay yeah i know

i'm not going to do that

if i bought

250 of those contracts

250 250 times 5 times 100 by about 250

of those contracts that would be 125 000

of collateral that i have to put up and

i'd be getting 30 000

34 250 bucks that's 27

that's not bad

that's juicy

you know

if i wanted to commit to something until

march i mean you could probably do

something similar to this to add like

soulfly and stuff like that but if you

wanted to back door into something like

hut hey you know

that's that's doesn't seem horrible not

financial advice of course

but uh

yeah let's let's also briefly just look

at a riot play

i don't know let's go in here on the

riot and then we'll get back to some of

the more normal sticks here so see

riot's only down about two percent today

so i'd rather

do it on something that's having more

pain

like here's here's an interesting one

okay let's say you wanted to buy shift

just just as an example so you could

carry over that crypto example let's say

you wanted to buy shift but you're like

i i just want to put my way into it okay

fine

so let's go over here

sell a put 750 for december

yeah look at that you get 1100 bucks

right now really look at that 7.5

times 100 times 10 contracts that's 7

500 dollars and i'd get eleven hundred

dollars

all right begin fourteen point six

percent that's not bad it's like picking

the thing up for sixteen dollars sorry

six dollars and forty cents if it closes

below that right

these are these are the days to sell

puts

on companies you want though you'd have

to want the company so if you do want to

be in those kind of crypto companies

that's an option for you but

especially if you go out to march you do

run the risk that we end up having a

crypto rally that that just lasts

into 2022

uh although i think the inflation fears

subsiding are going to be uh uh

they're like the only negative catalyst

right now that i see for crypto so uh

yeah for what it's worth hey you know

keep that in the back of your mind but

uh look i mean even if you wanted to go

into coinbase you wanted to sell some

puts to back door into coinbase because

you wanted to buy some coinbase maybe

but realize you might just end up

getting the credit and you might never

get the shares

anyway

except for the crypto talk thanks for

watching the crypto talk okay let's keep

moving on

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