Exposing Finance Idiot LYING to You.

well I think I found one of the most

clueless people in finance it's this guy

who says inflation is a scam now don't

get me wrong I believe we've got an

inflation problem prices are way too

high and wages haven't caught up to the

level of price gains yet but the reasons

and rationale that this person gives

about why inflation is a scam shows you

how little he actually knows about

Finance now you might be wondering why

put this poor s on blast well it's

misinformation like this that gives

people a misunderstanding of how Finance

actually works and it misleads them to

think that things are a problem when

they aren't actually a problem and then

they miss what the real problem is the

real problem we will talk about at the

end of this video first I want to give a

shout out though to James cat on X his

ticker ticker too many stocks here his

username is TSLA and MTL he's got a

great account shares great perspective

so shout out to Mr cat so here's what he

says is scam number one in the inflation

data and there are three of these all of

them wrong this is the first huge [ __ ]

off scam within this inflation data it's

not the data itself the data is

accurate okay first of all he thinks the

data is accurate that we know is false

but we'll give that one a pass but here

is the chart of energy inflation data

within the CPI report so so the index is

at 100 in January 2020 and you can see

that today electricity is 30% more

expensive so we can agree on that energy

prices are up 31% great that's a good

Baseline but what you're about to see is

a spewing of BS of tying things together

to make it seem like there should be a

logical conclusion I'll play it together

and then I'll break it all down to show

you how you get manipulated but be

careful as you watch this because it's

very convincing well here is the price

of gas Futures gas prices went up like a

rocket when Russia invaded Ukraine which

the energy companies used to jack up

their prices but then the prices of the

Commodities have come right back down

gas is now 10 to 20% cheaper right now

than at the start of 2020 well here is

the price of coal over the last 5 years

and yes coal today is almost 80% more

expensive than it was back at the start

of 2020 but the price of coal has fallen

really sharply in the last few months

same time the biggest electricity

provider in the United States Juke

energy made record profits in 2023

interestingly their operating income in

the most recent quarter increased by 54%

year on year do you know why well the

cost of natural gas for them is down 62%

year on year other fuel is down 11% year

on year so they're not paying as much

for their Commodities but your

electricity bill is up so they're raking

in the cash after great hikes this year

Pacific Gas and Electric Company the

second biggest electricity supplier saw

a 25% increase in their profits in 2023

I think you get the point the energy

companies are raking in their

cash he almost had me for a moment but

wait a second what do we have here let's

go piece by piece pg& announces nearly

25% increase in profits for $2.2 billion

that sounds like this Corporation must

be really really greedy and the

executives are probably rolling in D

they're probably laughing their way all

the way to the bank and I'm not here to

shill for these corporations I don't

care I'm not exposed to their stock and

I'm really glad I'm not because pg& KN

oh no what's this it had a high of about

70 bucks and it's down

76% why could that be oh no the CEO

resigned oh no massive net income losses

to the tune of billions of dollars well

exceeding the gross profits they're

earning now oh

man that's not exactly what Sasha told

me I didn't get the full picture instead

he's pulling chapter 11 bankruptcy data

to show you that revenues finally are

starting to grow again and the company

can finally start paying back its

debtors in its chapter 11 reorganization

so they don't have to fire all their

customers leaving more of a monopoly and

less Choice around for all the other

electricity consumers the company's

actually trying to come out of a hole

and this guy is saying they're greedy

profiteers now I'm not saying they run

their business great obviously they went

bankrupt for a reason they made some

oopsy dupsies and they probably deserve

to be going through the hell but I'm

just saying this is a very different

picture than what Sasha is telling you

but it's not just that my friends Sasha

tells us that things should be getting

cheaper because solar panels and wind

farms are cheaper to build well let's

break this apart Duke Energy the company

he talks about only produces 1.8% from

hydroelectric and solar now maybe they

could do more yes we can install more

solar panels great solar panel prices

are coming down does that mean solar

panel inverter prices are coming down

not if you look at end phase they're

holding prices up even though volumes

are going down so no you don't only get

strict price decreases and just because

panels are down doesn't mean the cost of

installation is down doesn't mean the

cost of the whole package is down

doesn't mean the cost of financing is

down then he tells us that but Kevin

what about windmills those are getting

cheaper he doesn't show us a chart of

that because he's full of crap wind

turbine prices have jumped in recent

years it's a simple Google it's not that

hard now yes natural gas prices have

come down but natural gas consumption

has been rising and the problem with

Rising natural gas consumption is the

actual price of natural gas is only one

part of what goes into the cost of what

you pay for electricity the Natural Gas

justes doesn't just teleport to your

cooktop it doesn't just teleport to your

water heater or your furnace or your

boiler it has to be distributed to you

or transmitted to you and that makes up

roughly 40% of the cost so no it's not

just the cost of natural gas besides

it's also not just natural gas that

actually goes into fuel production it

says natural gas and fuel oil makes up

about

33% of Duke's cons Consolidated energy

generation okay so what have other

prices done well he rightly pointed out

that coal prices are up substantially of

course he tries to water that down by

saying but they've come down a lot

recently are you kidding me look at the

chart I don't even want to do the math

on this but I'll do it anyway we're at

284 versus 190 284 divided 190 not

Pokemon that's funny uh you're up 50% on

the price of coal still from the bottom

and remember folks natural gas is just

part we've got right here coal making up

12.8% and the cost is up 50% for coal

but it's not just cold it's also natural

liqu uh natural gas that's liquefied

lngg liquefied natural gas liquefied

natural gas prices are actually up a

good chunk from 2019 and 2020 anywhere

between 30 to 50% depending on from what

point you measure in and not all natural

gas is transmitted to people through

pipelines as compressed natural gas now

again yes the prices of natural gas in

aggregate have come down but again it

misleads you because not only do you

have distribution costs fuel oils and

coal and very little Renewables that

actually go into electricity generation

but most natural gas is negotiated on a

contract that means even though if you

say if we just bought all of our

electricity right there at the bottom

we'd have cheaper natural gas we might

actually still be paying natural gas

prices from the levels of the last 6

months thanks to negotiated contracts to

make sure utilities don't run dry and

run out of electricity so they don't

have blackouts like the freaking losers

loser government in California that

makes that so heavily regulates the

natural gas industry that you can't

actually provide enough natural gas and

then guess what you end up getting power

outages so there are a lot of factors

that play here from politics to

regulation to clean environment policies

to high financing costs to distribution

costs to wages that are going up to

labor that's going this there is so much

more than just saying hey um I know coal

is up but uh natural gas is down so the

corporations are being greedy and

they're robbing you this is the problem

with Finance Finance is so much more

nuanced and complicated how about fuel

oils remember 33% as they mentioned

right here 33% % comes from natural gas

and fuel oils we don't have the exact

breakdown on how much of it is natural

gas but at least some of it is fuel oil

okay our fuel oil prices down no of

course they're not we're going from 184

to also 281 also up about 50% on fuel

oil so wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong

wrong on turbines wrong on all the costs

associated with solar let alone the

percentage that they actually make up

energy costs wrong on not mentioning

distribution or labor or politics or

ulation wrong on not mentioning the cost

of fuel oils wrong on talking about pg&

finally profit so they could pay back

the people that they screwed in

bankruptcy because they had bad business

practices again I'm not here to not bag

on the corporations I'm just telling you

the fact that electricity is up 31%

doesn't mean the cost of energy

production is down now what's remarkable

next is then he tries to blame oh car

insurance is a scam because car

insurance is propping up US inflation

it's nothing else it's car insurance and

that's a scam in fact we're going to

look at Burkshire hathway to see how

much of a scam birkshire Hathway's Geico

is okay but before I get to car

insurance let me look at what birkshire

hathway said about their energy business

because obviously he's not going to talk

about the Berkshire hathway energy

business because it would go against his

argument and he's cherry-picking data

what did Warren Buffett get from his

energy businesses well let's see after

tax earnings of our utilities and energy

business declined 40.3% in 2023 compared

to 2022 oh yeah that that wouldn't help

his argument at all but let's see where

birkar hat the way is finally making

money and let's look at car insurance

car insurance is up

22.2% year on year but here is the most

recent quely report by baksh hathway who

just happened to own Geico you know one

of the biggest car insurance companies

in the United States and their profit

from insurance absolutely exploded in

2023 no other year comes even remotely

close and the reason was earnings in

2023 reflected the impact of Premium

rate increases and lower claims

frequencies I think that's pretty black

and white or maybe black on yellow the

insurance industry is just taking the

piss because they can posting these

insane profits that they've never ever

posted before now notice what he does

right here he literally skips right over

what go goes against his narrative which

is that insurance expenses are lumpy

this is a lesson you have to know about

insurance insurance some years are

really good some years are really bad

it's kind of like you get crop insurance

when you have fields of strawberries

some seasons are fantastic some Seasons

you have a total loss and it costs

insurance companies a lot of money so

they save up for that again I'm not

saying insurance companies can't make a

lot of money they do they can but they

also lose money I mean consider for a

moment and then we'll point out exactly

where we're getting screwed here and

misled consider for example All State

they don't always make money see when

this line here goes negative by billions

of dollars those are losses trailing

12-month losses exceeding $25

billion but where's the manipulation in

this person's video well it's right here

he literally refuses to underline or

even speak out loud says it goes against

his narrative he says earnings in 2023

benefited from relatively low losses

reflecting the impact of Premium rate

increases in lower frequency claims

earnings in 2023 reflected the impact of

Premium rate increases and lower claims

frequencies I might we have lower claims

frequencies oh look because it says

right here earnings the part he didn't

read reflect it benefited from

relatively low losses from sign ific

catastrophic events during the year and

improved underwriting so in part the

business is getting more efficient but

also if you have mild weather at a

certain period of time you're going to

have less car accidents when you have

less snow and less rain and less

hurricanes you have less damage to

Vehicles so of course you're going to

have lumpy seasons and yeah you could

always go oh see they had a good weather

season that one greedy bastards how dare

they they're a scam All State mentions

that as well they mentioned that

catastrophe losses for the fourth

quarter were low by historic standards

now they were slightly higher for All

State for the year but the point of this

is just to show you that insurance is

very lumpy so of course we could just

cherry-pick a piece of Burkshire

Hathway's data ignore the fact that

Berkshire hathway is telling you Geico

actually had a great year in terms of

way lower catastrophes and then let's

just ignore the fact that costs for

vehicle parts are going up labor and

wages are going up let's completely

ignore that and let's just say Warren

Buffett is a greedy scumbag because

that's the popular thing to say right

now let's just completely ignore some of

the components that go to into Insurance

outside of the lumpy aspect like the

over 20% increase in motor vehicle and

part prices for replacement parts for

cars that get damaged and keep in mind

Insurance costs are really lagging with

inflation that's because you have what's

called contract rollover that is let's

say it's year one and everything's great

in your business year two things get

really expensive well you don't actually

have to start paying those really

expensive claims probably until later in

that year when you realize crap our

repairs are getting a lot more expensive

we're going to have to raise premiums in

year three well not everybody renews

January 1st for their insurance premiums

so all of a sudden you look back and go

dang year 2 expenses were way higher

than year 1 we need to raise our

premiums so in year three you raise your

premiums but but it takes an entire year

for people's premiums to actually go up

and then it takes many more years

thereafter as competition starts

innovating and driving prices down again

for those benefits to actually get

passed on to individuals because again

now they're locked in at higher rates

yes of course eventually Insurance

prices will get pushed back down how do

they get pushed down by competition

that's how capitalism works but taking a

lagging industry and trying to point out

really weird bumps on the road while

ignoring lines in earnings reports that

are actually critical to what's actually

going on is just a perfect way to

manipulate your audience again to make

it seem like that you're the one with

the only data and there can't be more of

an explanation to what's actually going

on now part three so then we get to

shelter in the inflation data the only

other number that is high dude no it's

not the only other number that's high

what are you smoking funeral expenses

1.5% on a month that's over 10%

annualized multiply all these numbers

I'm going to read you by 12 to get an

annualized figure of inflation 2.2% for

apparel Services what do we got here

miscellaneous personal services 1.3%

other personal services eight uh or 8%

that works out to uh over 7 well

actually sorry times 12 that works out

to 99.6% annual inflation Postage and

deliveries up 4.8% on an annual basis

that's the only number that the only

other number that's high wrong pet

services including vet that's up I mean

look at that 1.9% in a month and it's

been going up and up every single month

multiply it by 12 that's

22.8% purchases of subscription products

up 3.8% yes Recreation is only up .1%

and public transportation is down but

again motor vehicle repair up 3.1% yes

there's vehicle insurance that's up uh

2.6% on the month car and truck rentals

are down fantastic but health insurance

up 1.2% transportation services in total

up 1.5 Hospital Services up 1.2 that's

on a month again multiply by 12 Medical

Care Services 6 household operations

point8 Moving and Storage 7 oh so makes

it even harder for those freaking

tenants to recognize lower rent which

they have to move in order to get lower

rents most of the time and so that

increases their cost what do you smoke

in Sasha it's just Shel it's just it's

just shelter motor vehicle insurance and

electricity and it's all a scam you

didn't even go into the detailed tables

bro shelter is at 5.7% and you can see

the detailed chart here from the St

Louis fed and shelter inflation is

coming down but it's coming down very

slowly shelter is more than 36% of

overall inflation is by far the biggest

factor in the overall inflation data the

Federal Reserve says that inflation is

much too high they can't possibly do

anything by the rates they've got to

keep the rates High higher for longer

High rates mean that shelter inflation

is coming down way more slowly because

the interest rates on mortgages are

being kept artificially high and okay no

no we wrong first of all Sasha implies

that mortgage rates are part of the

shelter component so higher rates are

actually driving up inflation no

mortgage rates are not part of the

shelter component yes about 36% of

shelter is made up by owner equivalent

rents and shelter the cost of housing

but those are based on rent costs not

mortgage costs and yes rent costs are

flat year-over-year and in some cases

they're down actually in many parts of

the country from Peak rents are coming

down there's a big problem rents are

really really sticky when it comes to

rent going down it's very rare almost

never happens that a landlord's going to

call you up and go hey you know Market

rents are going down so we're going to

lower your rent in order for you to get

a lower rent you're going to have to

pack up your bags and move so actually

the realization of a lower rental

inflation coming through CPI is a lag

for an exact reason there's a reason

there's a lag the reason the lag exists

is because people have to pack up their

crap and actually move to get a lower

Market rent so that's why I know

everybody bags on the FED for having

lagging shelter inflation reads I've

bagged about it too I look at the market

rents I go market rents are going

Skyhigh but the problem is Market rents

do go up really fast and then everybody

gets to rate hike pretty dang quickly

even if they stay in the prod property

but they don't actually get their rent

reduction until they move that's a

problem so you have a structural problem

that keeps inflation high and yeah you

could blame greedy landlords as well

it's obvious that landlords are going to

benefit from basically saying move or

pay that's inconvenient to the tenant so

it keeps rents stickier which is a

problem but the fact that Sasha is

implying that morgage uh uh mortgage

costs are included in CPI is wrong now

you could make the stretched argument

that because mortgage rates are high

more people are wanting to rent and

that's what's causing rent inflation but

again rents are going down

year-over-year because there's plenty of

new construction that has helped lower

rents rents are falling especially in

areas like Texas or Florida where you're

having to do two to three month rent

concessions just to get people into a

unit that's a problem so yes there is

going to be a rent reset down but again

the problem for the consumer is you're

going to have to move to realize it so

what is the true problem with inflation

continuing is it corporate greed not for

the examples that he gave probably to

some extent yeah sure I know that's a

popular thing to say but Sasha's

arguments are almost all completely

wrong there's no mention of the big

elephant in the room which is record

fiscal spending the money printer is

running beautifully for the government

and that needs to get limited so we can

finally slow the spread of inflation and

this is a broad-based spread of

inflation this is not just inflation

coming to you from vehicle insurance

it's pets it's Medical Care insurance

and medical care expenses and hospital

bills and guess what increases Motor

Vehicle Insurance costs hospital bills

wow what a surprise there's so much more

that goes into this and yes the

government is absolutely to blame for

inflation the government is always to

blame for inflation but Sasha doesn't

blame the government Sasha blames all

the operations for all the wrong reasons

pick a better reason to blame them and

stop misleading your audience why not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin paffrath there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

great to get your

take even though I'm a licensed

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broker and becoming a stock broker this

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