Stupid stupid stupid.

hey everyone okay a few things to talk

about so yesterday i talked it was a red

day yesterday and usually on red days if

i say something positive i'm just a

chill for my stocks or whatever freaking

haters but anyway one of the recurring

comments on my video yesterday was that

well kevin of course spending is up

because if inflation is up things are

more expensive and therefore spending is

up

so we got to break this apart and talk

about that we're going to talk about a

huge catalyst that actually happened

yesterday and uh

kind of a lot of us i don't think

realized it and it might be a reason as

to why the market's green at the same

time as those 10 years are rising again

so let's talk about this first we need

to break apart this this thesis

that oh

absolutely consumers are spending more

solely because prices are up

so an easy way to look at this in my

opinion is this let's say you have a

thousand dollars a month for uh consumer

essentials and discretionaries maybe i

don't know outside of your rent 500 of

that or for essentials for yourself and

uh 500 or for discretionaries right

let's just say

so now you have 500 to spend on

discretionaries which could be

restaurants junk from etsy new shoes i

don't know

save a couple months and buy a

inexpensive computer or whatever right

okay so

what happens when there's inflation well

when there's inflation

you might still have

you probably still have inflation

doesn't take away your dollars it just

makes them worth less right you still

have that thousand dollars to spend

however you're getting less stuff so

maybe instead of saving for two months

for computer you have to save three

months which now means

a month went by that you weren't able to

buy new nike shoes or something else see

when inflation happens

it's not so much a matter of

you spending more money

it's more of a matter of you getting

less

now this is different for essentials

right if you go to a grocery store yeah

you're going to have to spend more money

on essentials but when consumer spending

is going up for non-essentials it's a

sign that consumers are optimistic it's

a sign that consumers are saying no you

know what we're not worried about

inflation being so entrenched that we

think inflation's going to go up forever

uh and we're back to the 70s and early

80s where we left the gold standard and

oh my gosh the dollar was going to

become completely worthless we're gonna

have monetary regime change you know

like the raidalio or whatever uh vision

i don't think it's going to happen at

least not any time soon

and by soon i mean like the next decades

that's a cool car yeah

so anyway uh this is a very important

thing to consider when you are an

investor looking at inflation data and

you're looking at okay what's the

consumer doing oh they're spending more

now sure

partly there could be this

rationalization that okay yeah i mean

maybe it's a mix of both right i ran a

poll on twitter and some of you a lot of

you thought okay well it's probably a

mix of both

but if you read the comments yesterday

it seemed like people were unanimously

under the impression that consumer

spending was only up that banks were

reporting consumers were spending more

and that banks are reporting that

consumers actually have more money or

are expected to have more money in their

bank accounts this year uh because

inflation's up it doesn't work that way

it doesn't work that way that's wrong it

does not work that way

so uh this is this is actually very very

positive that when we break it apart and

we think about inflation we think about

okay people maybe are spending more to

either continue this lifestyle of

consuming uh and they're they're

purposefully finding more money to spend

more to continue getting the same amount

of goods yeah sure inflation could drive

the need but they are willing to do that

and they are consciously willing to

spend more on non-essentials which is a

great sign for trying to prevent a

recession now i do think that uh

internationally we're going to have some

major issues with gdp in the course

member live stream this morning we were

talking about police helicopter

in the course member live stream this

morning we were talking about

global gdp and the imf's reductions for

gdp forecasts and look it's it's all a

disaster it's all a problem globally

we're gonna have massive issues but i

also posted on twitter don't bet against

america and i believe that i really

believe you do not want to bet against

america and this sort of economy and so

what is that catalyst that happened

yesterday that a lot of us kind of

forgot about yeah so by the way my

office is a disaster right now

because i kind of tore it apart uh i got

bored of my set so i'm making it new and

i've also got bored of streaming on a

mac because my mac sucks

uh and then i sold all my apple stock

okay well that's a different topic

but anyway uh

so the catalyst that happened yesterday

was tax day a lot of people made a lot

of money in 2021 oh did i mention no i

didn't mention it yet oh this slide's

wet this sucks

anyway if uh you want to know more about

this wet slide uh keep in mind that

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so what's the catalyst well tax day okay

so why does that matter well a lot of

big money

made a lot of money in 2021 because

people were able to potentially take

gains from 2020 investments in 2021 the

real estate market killed it a lot of

people made a lot of money in 2021 uh in

2020

not only because of stimulus but also

because of investments they they were

great two great years two phenomenal

years 2020 was better than 2021 but

still two phenomenal years

and so i just paid

lots of money in taxes uh close to 10

million dollars in taxes and and we

might end up having to pay even a little

bit more once we finalize everything uh

kind of crazy but uh i'll post those on

twitter probably later today so that way

you could see the receipts screenshots

or it didn't happen right can't really

do that right now but anyway

uh it's no surprise to me that yesterday

was a red day and then today

is is green because all right tax day is

over this is wonderful this is

phenomenal uh so what do we have going

forward though this week well we've got

some really important earnings

we've got um netflix is going to set the

stage here we've got a bunch of consumer

staples reporting this week as well we

had johnson johnson this morning they

actually lowered guidance a little bit

but a lot of them has to do with the

vaccine

and i'm starting to read their earnings

call nothing super exciting that i'm

seeing about the consumer and the j j

but we'll see from some of the other

consumer staples reporting netflix is

obviously going to be big especially for

disney after that miss in q1 i wouldn't

be surprised if uh we get some nice

beats and that's what i'm hoping for

because we had ugly ugly uh earnings

results for netflix that really set off

a horrible q1 uh well it's q4 reported

in q1 earnings season now we're in q2

reporting q1 and i'm quite optimistic

now i don't want to sound like you know

permabull uh i still recommend stay out

of margin if you're in margin you better

have a piggy bank to get out of it right

away uh like for example i tiptoed

slightly into margin

but that's only because i'm waiting for

some real estate transactions to close

and then i'm getting out of that again

uh which is totally fine you know that's

that's money that i expect to come and

it's it's not that big of a deal uh but

i would not be going into margin to buy

stocks although i mean if you were going

to make bets on the market i'd rather

make bets on the market at

people make fun of me for this too the

qqq fibonacci at bouncing off at 23.6

hey we got some some nice call options

on qqq so maybe i'm a little biased but

you know we'll see hopefully we get not

only a good confirmed bounce today but

that we have a really green week this

week and we get uh we get some great

earnings reports so we'll see i'll be

covering netflix later today do keep in

mind as this 10 year rises

the housing market is going to come

under pressure and that could affect

consumer spend though but that's going

to take a while it could take probably a

yeah 9 months to 12 months for consumers

to actually react to housing values

potentially going down uh even slightly

right

so that's not sort of a larger near-term

catalyst a bigger catalyst right now or

obviously ukraine and the disaster and

the don bus which we expected that this

is all coming prior to

uh victory day may 9th that that's a big

catalyst to get the fomc meeting on the

fourth cpi and jobs data before and

after these dates are kind of

intertwined in the first couple weeks of

may so you've got you've got a lot of um

a lot of catalysts coming up

but uh this this next uh next couple

weeks earnings season here

in my opinion is gonna tell us are we

gonna be able to get through all those

catalysts uh without a hitch i suspect

the answer is yes

no guarantees of course but if we get

really strong earnings here we're going

to plow right through whether the fed

raises 50 or not uh you know and

remember this is another big thing too

in other words we're going to plow

through optimistically one of the things

that everybody forgets about the fed is

the fed doesn't want to use their tools

they have to and they will raise rates

but they don't want to have to

use their tools to affect the economy

they want to just be able to talk

because if they can send

you know ballard out and freak out the

market a little bit uh and and some of

these hawks out and rates go up and the

economy tightens and demand wanes a

little bit they're actually

accomplishing their mission without

doing

anything and that is a surefire way to

uh to to win

for the fed and they realize how

powerful they are now with just their

words so

pretty excited about that uh in other

words that because we've seen so much

tightening over the last few weeks and

and red really coming out of the end of

march

which we you know we expected i thought

we were gonna run maybe another five

percent on the fib uh we didn't get

fully to that two-thirds on qqq we got

to about 60

but um

hopefully now we get a nice rebound off

of this and uh and and most of the

tightening's already been priced in and

then the fed talks to us at the

beginning of may about exactly how hey

market's already tightened quite a bit

we're happy with this we're starting to

see core cpi go down whatever pce

numbers uh settling down that's their

favored uh inflation measure anywho

these are just some thoughts on the

morning good luck out there i hope you

make some money and thanks for watching

check out those programs on building

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you should all be in zero to millionaire

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take take 12 years of of uh knowledge in

in the real estate market uh going

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and uh

and apply that to building your wealth

you'll love it alright folks we'll see

you bye