Wtf stocks

hey everyone kevin here welcome back to

another well market status report and

why stocks are all of a sudden jumping

let's go through everything including

the retail sales numbers walmart affirm

home depot earnings some highlights from

these some other notes including this

one that i want to start with lux

capital a venture capital firm is

telling their

companies that they've invested in but

the world is falling apart and i've lost

my voice a little bit that the world is

falling apart and that venture or that

companies they've invested in need to

act accordingly no longer expecting

higher valuations potentially raising at

lower valuations and expect job losses

coming in they say that 2020's covet

disaster and that short recession was

really a false alarm because we had low

rates and high spending and obviously

the market boomed after that and uh you

know ultimately their takeaway is and

this is an important one i think for all

of us to always think about companies

don't die because their product sucks

they die when they run out of money i

think that's honestly true of people as

well it's like we if we are investors

don't fail because we made a mistake we

failed because we ran out of money but

anyway

we're hearing more and more in the vc

space a lot of this fear and angst i'm

at a vc conference a lot of people were

complaining suggesting oh yeah it's

harder to raise money uh this is why

people should be raising money for like

recessionary things which is kind of

like if you go to medkevin.com series a

that'd be really good opportunity but

anyway

uh you're hearing a lot of this talk

about oh no we're already in a recession

it's a lot of kind of doom and gloom

for me i think it's the buying

opportunity of a lifetime i'm like i'm

gonna look back in five years and go

dang i'm so glad i picked up as many

shares as i did but anyway uh this was

interesting because it stood out a

little bit of a contrast to sort of this

venture capital sentiment i think these

people can be quite emotional just like

people in general uh analysts at

jpmorgan chase uh quote reckon that

global capital capital expenditures so

basically investments into businesses

rose by 7.6

in the first quarter compared with the

year before so that's that's quite

substantial uh and uh and twice the rate

towards the end of 2021 so in other

words you're getting a lot of this mixed

messaging right you're getting this

messaging of some people having

substantial fear but then some numbers

still coming in actually decent or not

so terrible and i think this is actually

one of the things that creates so much

pain in our markets right now is we're

like why why is it so unclear like for

example we got the empire manufacturing

survey it wasn't that great you know

that was uh we missed the numbers and

the numbers too hot out here that's

ridiculous uh the numbers didn't come in

great uh yet this morning

we get manufacturing numbers and they

beat and it's like wait so which is it

and one of the things that i sort of

tell myself is okay well the more we

have this sort of uncertainty the more

you know it's probably a time to invest

because when you have that kind of

uncertainty when you have quote u.s

factory production increasing point

eight percent tuesday double the point

four percent expectation uh and and

standing in contrast to the empire

manufacturing data when you have that

kind of

unclear data it sends large signals in

my opinion that okay

you can't fault the market for freaking

out you can't fault the market for

selling down or having these bear market

rallies i kind of feel like

we're in like a really wavy ocean

and uh previously we were on a flat

ocean and so we're sort of on our wave

runner going to our destination which is

basically just like price is just going

straight up and so we're just on flat

like flat floor to water now we're in

these crazy waves and people are tipping

over and nobody's enjoying their time on

their waverunner because it's like you

don't even know where the next wave is

going to come from you're getting

sideswiped and all this mess

and to me that's reiterated by sort of

unclear data like this but

i'd rather be buying in a time where

waters are not calm whereas that's in

contrast to buying when times are calm

that's actually when you're most at risk

because you're not paying attention to

those potential nasty rogue waves that

could come and crush crush your

valuations right so keep that in mind

okay uh wow this voice thing sucks

uh oh by the way before i hit retail

sales in walmart and some of these other

things i do want to mention that i've

got a ton of emails to go through so if

you are waiting for an email reply

because you had questions about the the

bundle or bundling up courses

uh and you send an email to kevin at

meatkevin.com i'm still going to honor

the price i'm going to get through these

these emails for you all and make sure

that you get taken care of but it will

probably still take another 24 hours

they're just they're too many of you

but i will take care of it um it'd be a

lot easier if i still had all the

employees i had

but honestly hey if you're if you're

okay being patient uh then then i'm okay

saving the money on the employees still

want them but oh well so

walmart all right let's talk about this

walmart comes in uh with price cuts

actually on 10 000 items they cut their

profit forecast and they missed on the

bottom line now they mentioned that they

expect the second half not to be

terribly different from their

expectations uh and that consumers are

still spending on higher end goods this

is consistent with what we've seen with

like mastercard and visa

even the banks that people are still

spending on expensive things luxury

goods like

in this case and to me when i read this

i'm like does that really seem like a

luxury good and then i remember back to

my childhood and i'm like yup when we

were broke and uh going through

foreclosure as a child which had

substantial scary memories for me

i uh

i couldn't buy the gaming console i

wanted i couldn't buy the patio

furniture i wanted as a child

uh and so anyway the statement here is

many consumers are still spending strong

on high-end goods like gaming consoles

and patio furnitures however others are

more focused on store brand jelly lunch

meat and bacon so you're seeing that

lower end starting to feel that

inflation bite starting to compress a

little bit and walmart is who's

obviously caters to a

lower end customer average income of a

household they're somewhere between

fifty six thousand eighty thousand

depending on which metric you look at so

catering to the lower end of the the

household uh incomes throughout our

country and so it's not a surprise to

see price cuts to start seeing some

sales get pushed again uh for example a

big place they're cutting prices is

actually apparel which kind of makes

sense because i feel like when we

started going out again last summer

everybody's like all right i need new

clothes and now everybody's like all

right i got my new clothes

so kind of makes sense and when we get

the cpi data we see the same kind of

compression in

you know clothing so then uh retail

sales

talk briefly about this then home depot

retail sales came in at a two percent

advance in uh

in restaurants and bars that's after an

already strong 1.9

last month gain so people spending more

restaurants bars i agree i'm one of

those

building materials down 0.1

more evidence that the property market

is cooling 2.7 decline in gas spending

as people potentially are driving

slightly less under higher costs up okay

this was this was shocking okay

the march retail sales figures were uh

it came in at a negative

0.1 percent so a contraction right and

that is part of gdp

well now and i know some of you and and

like i can't like fault like maybe the

20 of you were gonna think this they're

gonna be like biden rigged this

but uh apparently the march figure has

now been revised from negative point one

percent to a one point one percent gain

and that is part of gdp so that could

potentially when we rejigger the gdp

numbers uh probably in july mean we were

not at negative gdp

in q1 these are numbers

they feel so rigged

anyway uh retail sales of 0.9 percent

the estimate was uh one percent so

slight miss there but honestly quite

good because core which was excluding

autos and gas was one percent rather

than the point seven percent expected

americans kept spending at a robust

click relying on credit cards amid

surging pricing we got

walmart seeing double digit inflation in

the food section we do have uh five fed

speakers today so you're gonna have a

lot of fed speak today

you've got home depot

this was interesting one

it takes a while for the real estate

market to slow down but i think you're

starting to see some of the cracks and

you have to look really closely at home

depot the headline numbers won't

actually help you see the average ticket

at home depot was up 11.4

same store sales were up three percent

however transactions were down 8.4

so people are paying more

but they're shopping less at home depot

this somewhat expected but they're still

raising forecasts because they're still

expecting people are still going to pay

through this inflation

however they've only got 3.8 sales

growth the smallest in two years and

it's well below

that inflation you know if they matched

inflation in terms of sales growth

they'd be like eight and a half percent

year over year well they're only at 3.8

so they're not able to pass along all of

the high prices and they are losing

but they're still beating expectations

so uh now this was an interesting one

it was uh out of the 38 oecd countries

households according to the economist

households across the oecd countries are

still sitting on roughly four trillion

dollars of savings worth about eight

percent of global gdp or sorry not

global gdp eight percent of gdp of these

countries

and this is money that was accumulated

during the pandemic and contrary leave

contrary there we go to what's commonly

suggested not all of that money is in

the hands of the rich in america

in america the bank accounts

okay this is the bank putting together

the numbers accounts that low-income

families were still 65

richer or had more cash than at the end

uh at the end of last year compared to

2019 so in other words

end of 2021 people were still 65 richer

than they were in at the same time in

2019 uh even poorer folks this is kind

of consistent with what we've seen that

consumers still have about 140 more

purchasing power than they had in 2019

and so i think that's why we're still

seeing these retail sales

strong the problem is this could

potentially push the fed into that

mandating the recession right the man

the recession mandate it's like well we

gotta get inflation down so let's just

force the recession and when jay pal

yesterday started talking about paul

volcker i'm like oh crap

mastercard

starting to use facial recognition

rather than con contactless cards or

phones for their credit cards in five

supermarkets in brazil that seem pretty

cool break even uh treasury yield on the

five year rising a little bit it's a

little bit of an inflationary concern

3.12

still down about 15 from its peak in

march 10-year treasury 2.96

a quick update on uh elon and tesla

spacex's raising some uh or selling some

shares well elon musk is selling some

shares over at spacex it's believed that

this is going to help elon with his

twitter acquisition and take some

pressure off of tesla and they're

raising it about 125 billion valuation

a firm uh says that 81 of all

transactions were from repeat users no

one business accounted for more than 10

percent of their revenue and during

recessions they believe they get

substantially more customers than not we

also believe paying overtime without

late fees and gotchas will be in greater

demand during a downtown a downturn they

say

wow well there you go i got some emails

to respond to if you haven't yet uh

emailed me or or you've emailed me and

you're waiting remember kevin i mean

kevin.com you know onto those uh those

bundle coupons for those of you who are

asking about that uh you can also get

the bundles when you go to

meetkevin.teachable.com or use that link

down below and folks thanks so much for

being here we'll see in the next one bye