*Critical* | Watch BEFORE **May 11**

hey everyone me Kevin here this is an

important video to understand the

details of before Wednesday this week

whether you're a Trader in stocks

thinking about getting into the market

or whatever this Wednesday which is a

May 11 2022 starting at 4 a.m we're

going to get some really important data

so let's talk about it the first thing

we're going to get before CPI we're

going to talk about that and

expectations uh it's gonna be an update

on mortgage applications that's going to

be a pretty big deal to see what the

difference is month over month and

mortgage apps we kind of expect this to

be a big old minus but we don't actually

have a survey from economists yet I just

want you to know that Wednesday the 11th

4 AM we're gonna get some mortgage data

we kind of have a pretty good pulse uh

at least finger on the pulse of the real

estate market it's it's uh you know

we're kind of already off the precipice

on a little bit of a slide to the

downside okay all right more importantly

though CPI let's talk about that so CPI

month over month last month was the

March data so in April comes out the

March data right it lags a month so the

March data was a complete disaster

because we got month over month CPI of

1.2 percent that's the equivalent of

like

14.4

annualized in terms of a run rate of

inflation like how fast we're moving in

terms of inflation that was a complete

disaster I mean highest inflation in 40

years everybody's freaking out because

headline inflation was eight and a half

percent uh for March again the measure

came out in April well

the one blessing that we have last month

was that core CPI which was X food and

energy oh it only came in at six and a

half which only came in at six and a

half that's still really really bad

right six and a half year over year

really high measure for core inflation

core inflation strips out the more

volatile components which are like food

and energy the Federal Reserve was

obviously driving this Market does not

care so much about food and energy

because they realize they can't control

uh these supply chain issues they can

only affect demand and food and energy

costs are often some fly shock issues so

when we strip those out we get to sort

of what's core like you know how much

are doctor Services going up or your

dentist or your washing machine and uh

you know your car and things like that

so that's part of more of Core computers

business services so on and so forth

anywho the expectation for an annual

rate of inflation that comes out of 5 30

a.m Wednesday morning is six percent

that's a decline of a half percent

that's still very large uh but uh that's

that's a much better core inflation a

number than what we had last one uh well

in March coming out in April which was

six and a half so expecting that to be

six percent the a headline number

instead of being eight and a half or

Worse getting worse to like nine percent

or nine and a half percent that number's

expected to come in at eight point one

percent you should write these things

down too so when the numbers come out

you're like oh crap how much did it Miss

by it's like I don't know it's rarely

perfect anyway this one's pretty wild

listen to this CPI for the month over

month figure this is the estimate for

month over month this gives you sort of

the speed we're going at it's not you

know giving us an annual estimate it's

just the speed we're going at within a

month

survey is calling for a point two now

that's actually extremely low because

0.2 times 12 to get that speed only

gives us 2.4 that's a very low rate of

inflation in fact if we can get CPI

coming in at point two that's actually

consistent with the federal reserve's

belief that we want inflation to be

around two two and a half percent right

around there point two on a month over

month basis is great that's like that

would be phenomenal because again that'd

be about 2.4 uh however the only reason

we would actually be seeing 0.2 is

because we expect that food and energy

costs are coming off of their Peak from

March so when we look at the core uh for

CPI minus food and energy you actually

have a 0.4 survey which is 4.8 percent

still way better than all the other

numbers we're seeing uh however it is

clearly lower than uh again what we've

seen for the last you know six to 12

months here but it's higher than that

point two percent when you include that

coming off a cliff of food and energy so

point four is that's going to probably

be the most important number there are

we going to get 0.4 or not so how does

this affect the markets well uh first of

all this uh release comes out just five

days before the largest price increase

ever on the program so I'm building your

long-term wealth whether that's the real

estate property management sales YouTube

videos uh stocks and the psychology of

money you name it because remember this

is a big tip for you this is the kind of

Market you want to be focusing on how

much quantity do you have of the

companies who love not what the price of

them is come on this is an irrational

insane Market of course we've done an

irrational amount of money printing so

don't get me wrong like I understand why

it's happening but still anywho

these are opportunities so CPI

the expectation of a 0.4 month over

month free I'll tell you where it gets

ugly if we get a read of 0.7 or higher

we're gonna miss anything anybody's

forecasting and 0.7 is like an

annualized run rate of 8.4 which is just

as hot as March if we got a 0.7

the Market's gonna be a poopy doopy we

miss on that headline number you know we

end up instead of getting an 8.1 getting

another 8.5

these are things that are going to be

leading to that 75 BP height uh from the

FED which some members have said hey you

know we're not taking 0.75 off the table

Jerome Powell saying you know it's not a

consideration right now instead we're

just gonna do 50 50 which really if you

think about it 150 uh and then uh a 75

and then 25s is really kind of like a 50

50 and then 25s right

just like at the sky is 75. anywho so uh

if we get a Miss on that poor read right

there to the upside we're gonna have

problems however

if we get

a Miss to the downside and we get

something like a month over month Corey

uh honestly even a match point four but

we get something like a point two on

four or or a negative number on core

minus food and energy we had like

negative 0.1 and then a 0.2 on core

month over month

that on top of a crystal clear path from

the fed and indications that we're

starting to see shipping price come down

rail prices coming down forward

expectations that shipping costs are

coming down food commodities used cars

off their peaks Lumber costs coming down

all these things coming down and core

cpi's starting to fall now for the last

couple months

[Music]

so I'm

hope now I realize I'm smoking a little

bit of the hopium right now because you

know I'm it I'm gonna have some extra

cash flow coming up in about four weeks

once a few more transactions close and

if we're still at low prices I'll

probably be a buyer until of course we

we had bought a move back up in the

stock market and then I expect we'll

have a later delayed low on real estate

pricing uh well hopefully stocks are a

little bit higher so that way we can

move from one to the other right they

don't always align and this is a very

important thing to remember is you do

not have to align a stock bottom with a

real estate bottom in fact look back in

2008 that biggest pain in the stock

market was really around September of 08

but you didn't actually get a bottom in

the stock market until about February of

2009. the star the real estate market

still had pricing declines for another

two years it wasn't really until the end

of 2011 beginning of 2012 that we saw at

least a decent increase in in the in

prices again to where it's like oh wait

are we hitting a bottom are we now

expecting up so keep those things in

mind super important this person also

really wants to try to hit me with the

bubbles I think it's kind of funny and

entertaining anyway check out the

programs link down below and there's

something very important that you have

to remember about bubbles okay here's

the thing Lauren went to the a birthday

party the other day and she got kicked

out for blowing bubbles and you know and

like everybody at the party was like

what the f like

you know you got kicked out for blowing

bubbles

and you know it wasn't until later we

got home with our family

and people like so so what was Lauren

doing again or like she's blowing

bubbles

and like what bubbles the clown bubbles

was the Clown