Holy Sh*t Tesla Stock.
FULL TRANSCRIPT
you're saying the margin is going to be
bigger
70 of Tesla owners don't even know about
your shows thank you so much
hey everyone here wow I have to say
going to the shareholder meeting was a
whole lot better than I expected now I
expected to meet people and have a great
time and I was blown away by the amount
of people were coming up shaking my
hands saying I'm a course member you've
helped me so much thank you so much you
and your course helped me get a job love
your shows thank you so much so many
nice and friendly people it didn't have
to be that nice didn't have to come up
seriously the Tesla Community is
absolutely amazing so first and foremost
shout out to the Tesla community and
well all the people who work for Tesla
now when it comes to the groundbreaking
Shockers that we got out of the
shareholder meeting well there were
quite a few and I think first and
foremost and it's an honor to be able to
say that Elon Musk is not stepping down
a CEO and even though I think the
company will be just fine without Elon
musk's CEO we did just get JV from
Redwood materials battery recycling
company back on Tesla board which is
great I think that Tesla still needs
Elon at this point mostly because even
though it feels like the car company is
mature and it could really continue
going on the product development much
like the iPad the lineup is already
built as Steve Jobs said as he was in
this final months we've got four or five
years of products lined up I think
that's true of the next few models of
vehicles for Teslas whether that's cyber
truck and then maybe Robo taxi
potentially that model too that was
teased I think that second vehicle
because they mentioned they're working
on two vehicles one I think is the model
two the second I think looks a little
bit more like a box fan I think that'll
be the robo taxi uh but anyway whether
it's those or it's uh the Roadster or
maybe even something else after that not
even considering the semi which is
already up I think that road map is
already set 4680 is already set all of
that so all that is already said Elon
though is Mission critical for not only
making this artificial intelligence as
solid as possible not just for FSD but
for
the robot the Optimus robot I want to
play some clips here of what happened
with the Optimus robot because we saw
footage of the Optimus that we actually
haven't seen before because as Elon said
it was well filmed yesterday but let's
just say at least for the footage which
wasn't a live demonstration so who knows
it could have taken 20 takes to get
these shots
the robots actually look like they're
able to start doing functional things
like opening every single finger
individually or manipulating something
into a narrow box and moving their wrist
to take their hand back out suppress it
and while there's a long way to go
that's the part of the vision that I
think Elon is actually going to be
really critical of it's a next level of
visionary or visionariness or
envisioning whatever uh and the next
level of integrating artificial
intelligence with well things we need
like robots which what was really
remarkable was this idea that
we might have 10 to 20 billion humanoid
robots in the future Elon suggested
potentially one two two robots per
person and I thought that was really
incredible because initially I thought
to myself okay yeah you know we'll count
robots in tens of millions like we'll
count cars you know we manufacture as a
globe somewhere around 80 and sell
around 80 million Vehicles a year well
it's possible that I mean if you're if
you're looking at 10 billion humanoid
robots over a 10-year period That's 1
billion humanoid robots per year which
means if Tesla wants to have say a 25
market share of cars or 20 market share
cars a 20 market share of robots would
be 200 million robots and that's just 20
now those are obviously extremely
optimistic bullish hoping big you cannot
invest in the stock because of that kind
of opium
but I think that is why you still want
Elon at Tesla it's because you want the
growth to continue at Tesla when you do
projections fundamental analysis on a
company you want to project out what is
the earnings per share growth going to
be over the next five years and then
beyond because you don't want to get to
the end of five years and then drop off
to five percent growth and be a nominal
Growth Company you want the next s-curve
to be there and this is what Elon is
providing the max S curve so really
great to hear that he's not stepping
down next thing that obviously we have
to talk about is advertising let's go
ahead and play the clip on
Advertising I'm going to make one little
cut for compliance reasons because I
cannot mention the name of a certain
products that I have of course you can
learn everything about me on the
internet just Google it but before we
talk about my opinions on Advertising I
gotta insert off course an ad and yeah
it's from the financial times here you
go any of you like to know where does
Kevin read his news and I personally
love the financial times I get the paper
edition of the financial times I read
them online and on my iPad but not only
that check this out this is the
financial times ft edit app and they
have paid to promote this app in my
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financial times and the team at the
financial times I think this app is a
phenomenal product you can get 30 days
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basically give you eight of the day's
top stories and they sort them by date
so if I want to know about Tesla's
resale values on Tuesday March 28th I
can do that and the story stays there
which is great because one of the
reasons I like the paper is because the
stories don't change on that day whereas
on the regular website it feels like the
stories are always changing and I'm
missing stuff right the cool thing
though is let's say I missed yesterday's
fan Financial Times edit watch this I
could just go to Monday March 27th boom
click on the 27th and what happens I can
read about big Tech facing a reckoning
over a Teen Health crisis or who's this
Alvin Brad guy or maybe I want to learn
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Jerome Powell is supposed to be
politically independent from politics
and the Biden Administration he has to
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she has to align with Joe Biden now
that's just an example of information
that I learned directly from the Ft edit
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supposed to be independent he has to
politically align with the political
party that's in control to send the same
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opinion the Ft edit app is a fantastic
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hey Elon meet Kevin here hey how's it
going good thanks so uh Tesla is the
largest position I'm curious I really
think that some of the features that you
highlighted here like the uh
over-the-air airbag deployments of
improving the features the safety
features are great things that we could
be advertising for I know you've heard
this many before I know you have but no
no no sorry go ahead go ahead yeah 525
bucks off every car this year is half a
Netflix's advertising budget thousand
bucks is the entire Netflix advertising
budget and I see their ads everywhere
why not advertise these things that you
told us here I feel like nobody else
knows about this I just talked to Gordo
the Tesla bear and he's still talking
about 2016 New York Times pieces these
people are in the past man that's like
seven years ago at this point yeah
that's what I'm saying yeah it's
actually I talk to a lot of people and
they still think that like Teslas are
like super expensive and like no
actually the starting price for a Tesla
is below the average auto price in the
US
that's like
and that's a good thing
I mean I think it's it's it's good that
it's that way you know like which our
goal was always to make cars that are
affordable to the general public
um so
so I I hear you I mean I think
um and it's indeed ironic that you know
what Twitter is like highly dependent on
Advertising so um you know here I am
it's like uh you know not never use
advertising really before and uh now uh
have a company that's highly dependent
on Advertising so
um I I guess I should say advertising is
awesome and everyone should do it
but but I I I think I I hear your your
uh sort of logical point which is that
um there are amazing features and
functionality about Teslas that people
just don't know about and and although
there's there's obviously a lot of
people that follow like say the Tesla
account and and the uh you know my
account whatever on Twitter
um uh to some degree it is preaching to
the choir and the choir is already
convinced
um so I think what you're saying
um does does have some merits I I
believe in taking taking suggestions so
um we'll we'll try a little advertising
and see how it goes
okay okay
foreign
I wasn't expecting that level of
enthusiasm
but uh okay it sounds like our
shareholders
if I read between the lines
subtle as it is are saying we should
probably do some advertising okay very
well all right so obviously it is a
total honor to have Elon be excited
about the potential of trying
advertising and I'm very excited that a
I had the opportunity to ask the
question but B I'm also very excited for
the Tesla community and really everybody
a part of it because I think everybody
wins uh in fact I'll give you an example
of what I think
a good Tesla ad would look like yeah
I'll give you a framework for it in this
video and then maybe in a future video
we'll try to simulate one but I'll give
you some ideas that we talked about but
first I think it's useful to get my
reaction briefly after the questions
ended by giving you part of a clip uh
with uh with an interview with Ellie in
space check out her Channel on YouTube
she does interviews covers a lot of
things Tesla well I'm super happy
because uh really it's it's the owners
it's the shareholders it's everyone
because the better the company does all
of those existing car owners hey more
updates for them because here's the
thing Tesla will see we're advertising
about all we're doing for our existing
owners that's going to encourage more
people to buy right so it helps in both
directions you know and then of course
it helps existing shareholders
everything so now I want to respond to
some other arguments that people have
made about advertising that oh well you
know advertising doesn't matter it's
just you know short term shareholders
that care about advertising I actually
think that it's completely wrong I
believe that the more Tesla can convince
the World by simply informing them
earlier that Tesla is safer and Tesla is
better in the features that it has and
the value that it provides to Consumer
the consumer then what you're actually
doing is you're multiplying the Tesla
end game so if you're at 1.9 million
vehicles of production now and you say
oh well it doesn't matter we're selling
every car we make anyway oh oh just
short-term you know stock speculators
want Elon to advertise that's wrong
because the longer it takes for Tesla to
share their message the more time there
is for other companies in the longer
term to compete right now we as Tesla
shareholders obviously I'm a Tesla
shareholder we know that Tesla has a
massive moat the people who are familiar
with full self-driving know that Tesla
has a massive moat that will deteriorate
over time in other words it will be a
lot easier for other companies now to
get from zero percent to ninety percent
FSD while we're at 95 percent slowly
getting to 96 and 97 but we want to brag
about that lead now because it actually
gets more people into the network sooner
which in the end game could potentially
increase your terminal expected value
Vehicles produced per year so Elon has a
goal of producing 20 million vehicles
per year as a terminal value now this is
important for anybody doing financial
analysis in terms of a discounted cash
flow obviously but even just practically
the jargon aside think about it
if you get more people into the iPhone
in 2007 you sell more iPhones in 2013 14
15 16. so in other words if you had 20
extra people who adopted the iPhone in
07 when it first came out your Tam would
likely be substantially larger in 13 and
14 because you'd be so far ahead of the
game you'd have more money for more r d
you'd have larger margin you'd have
larger pricing power you'd essentially
reach almost this a point at this point
of an escape velocity lead and I don't
think that Tesla should assume that
everybody knows what Tesla is doing
here's a discussion I briefly had but
I'll give you a few examples and then
I'll come up with an ad example too
here's the discussion I had with soft as
I was leaving the Tesla event and I
argued that people don't even know about
this new caller Tesla has the maroon
take a look at that discussion even in
the Tesla Community people do not know
about that color yeah guaranteed I
guarantee 70 of Tesla owners don't even
know about that color
yeah so I mean or someone was tweeting
at me today I posted a picture of this
like is that from Berlin yeah yeah yeah
it's here it's available here's another
one take a look at this clip where I was
standing in front of the Cyber truck and
I asked huh what did Elon mean when he
says this is an exoskeleton car and cars
are generally built with an endoskeleton
I understand from a human point of view
the difference of that or or you know
human endoskeleton or think of maybe
some kind of reptile or whatever which
is more exoskeleton uh so now
from a car point of view does that mean
there's no frame on the inside I mean
obviously there have to be axles so what
we decided to do was get somebody on the
phone who actually tears these vehicles
apart and ask them the question and so
here's what Sandy Monroe had to say
specifically about that Elon said that
the Cyber truck is an exoskeleton build
whereas most cars are endoskeleton
doesn't this thing have a frame on the
inside like what's the scoopier
money inside it's an exoskeleton
there's there's no frame inside
means that
that he owns there's no bones inside
it's only the outside skin that's an
exoskeleton so you're saying the margin
is going to be bigger
that's all I talk about
ah okay and yes the margin is bigger
it's bigger because you only have to
form one one chunk of Steel
um whereas uh the other guys have to
have an inner and outer uh structure the
inner structure is uh what would they
call black metal any outer structure is
called
um body and white so there you go so now
when you walk all of this back you
realize huh that's interesting Kevin I
didn't know about the maroon color I
didn't know about that exoskeleton I
didn't know XYZ about the capabilities
of full self-driving I didn't I
personally this is I'm making those as
examples because I knew some of these
things but what I didn't know was that
my dad who drives my black ax uh
you like my black X
good
what I didn't know is that Elon and the
team at Tesla are continuously improving
airbag deployment and emergency braking
with software by analyzing accidents and
then over the air updating the safety
features of that vehicle there is not a
single car manufacturer that I'm aware
of that does that you have to buy the
next model to get the next safety
features I mean how many times do you
look for a new car and then you think oh
what safety features does it have well
what if it was just safety yes and
whatever new features came out they just
sort of opted in that's fantastic even
if the features are you know potentially
seemingly nominal if it means you're in
capacity well obviously dead or not dead
that's a big deal but out of work for
six weeks after an accident or walking
away from an accident
those are huge and the economic value of
that is also very important you know
sometimes people are like oh Evan well
when a hurricane comes through that's
good for the economy right because it
means people are rebuilding homes that's
actually raw because what you're doing
is you're robbing that potential
spending power on something else so
you're robbing the economy yes money is
being spent but money is essentially
being lost to be spent that is problem
because now people are being more
productive with their money so anyway
they're going on an economic tangent
here we can debate that in the comments
so let's think about an example of an ad
now before we talk about what kind of
examples of ads Tesla should operate we
need I'm sorry another ad but this one's
for me it's just to remind you that I've
got amazing programs on building your
wealth link down below as you've seen
many people came up and said thank you
for the value you provide that's my goal
long time supporter course members thank
you so much for being a member if I
could provide more value we all win and
I really believe that course members get
some remarkable value you want to learn
5 mental analysis come on in you want to
learn about real estate fundamentals
come on in you want to learn about AI
productivity come on in we'd love to
have you so go to the link down below
thanks so much I personally think and
it's a discussion we had that Elon
should be thinking and he said himself
he wants an ad that's informative well
an ad that's informative something like
what Ryan Reynolds used to do with mint
mobile before he sold it to T-Mobile
which the irony of that is mint mobile
was really just a way to sell people
T-Mobile at a cheaper price because they
use the same network technically
T-Mobile folks got prioritization but it
was the same network if at 15 bucks a
month versus 70 bucks a month it's
brilliant but anyway picture of Ryan
Reynolds style ad and it's just Ryan
Reynolds and hey did you know full
self-driving could do this
yeah that's a Tesla the car doesn't care
about your politics it cares about your
safety and it's watching from X number
cameras this that whatever something
super simple short and sweet like that
15 seconds 30 seconds from different
actors or just use Ryan Reynolds
exclusively I mean if he's done with mid
mobile maybe you can now move on to
Tesla and help them out there's some
massive opportunities to now go from
this to safety stats to FSD stats how
FSD is 2.4 times safer than a regular
driver in a certain circumstance or
night driving or rain driving whatever
the various different stats or this
airbag stat that we talked about or hey
did you know the price of a Tesla now
was actually only 39 900 or whatever
right A lot of people as Elon himself
said aren't even aware the cars have
become this affordable or how about this
screenshot which was literally me taking
a picture of the slide at the event
which showed that the total cost of
ownership of a Tesla is comparable to
that of a Toyota
Corolla was it Corolla or Camry does
anybody remember I think it was Corolla
anyway Corolla is the entry-level
version of the Camry another really
phenomenal thing that I saw which is
unique to being an event in person
listen to what I say about Robin and the
head of the board of directors the
director of the board of directors this
was actually something you just can't
experience when you're not somewhere in
person and it's really magical it's it's
pretty powerful listen to this clip from
the alien space interview when somebody
had the shareholder proposal on Cobalt
and he's like
you know what we'll do it yeah and we'll
do an audit and what was remarkable was
I looked at the director of the board
Robin and I saw her reaction was kind of
like here goes Elon again and I'm like
this is so cool I'm seeing in real time
the sort of dissension between like
there's Elon saying stuff and now we
gotta clean it up you know right that
was awesome you know something else that
was remarkable about the event was this
idea then
the more people apply for a company
the more desirable the company is
potentially to work for and the idea is
that the more people apply the more
competitive it is to get into the
company and the more Talent actually
ends up at the company and if the best
talent regularly goes to the best
companies that it will always be the
best companies that end up innovating
the most and the best the most cost
effectively
and ultimately provide the best
shareholder value
the fact that they received 3.6 million
job applications is phenomenal because
think about it even if they wanted and
that was in 2022 even if they wanted to
hire their entire staff again they have
about 126
000 employees think about that 3.6
million applications divided by their
entire staff of 126 000 they received
28.5 times as many applications as they
actually have jobs now imagine available
jobs it's remarkable really interesting
argument one I haven't thought of before
this uh 48 volt architecture part about
saving and spending you know one-fourth
of the uh money on Copper for wiring for
cars probably I would say here on the
relatively insignificant side from a
margin point of view we're not really
going to see that end up in margin but
it's not wrong copper is a form of a
precious metal uh and this is good I
mean this is why European countries
generally well one of the reasons use a
240 volt architecture as opposed to the
120 or some people say 110 that we use
in our homes because you could use
thinner wiring so less copper so it's
not wrong interesting love the idea
about FSD beta growing exponentially
that the curve of adoption was going to
look like a wall I think Dave Faber from
his CNBC interview with Elon Musk
afterwards did hit on something that I
was skeptical about myself and we'll
play that clip but this idea that the
value of the car would 5x overnight
after essentially becoming a robo taxi
and elon's using this rough math of oh
well if you use your car seven hours a
week typically and we can now use it you
know 35 hours a week because of Robo
taxi okay now it's worth five times as
much or whatever the the value of a
fully autonomous fully autonomous car is
we think perhaps uh five times more
valuable than a non-autonomous car why
okay I I'm not convinced on that uh so
so we'll see uh because it makes you
wonder when are you ever going to
actually have to own a car and does that
then commoditize the value of a car does
that reduce what you could sell a car
for does it reduce your margin we're not
sure who the beneficiary is yet of Robo
taxi so I don't include it in any of my
formulas it's it's we're not even there
yet let's get through the next difficult
12 months which Elon Musk told us the
next 12 months would be difficult so
let's get through the next difficult 12
months and buy the dip as he says when
the opportunity comes and if you make it
out of this he's right Tesla will emerge
stronger that is the case of every
recession a recession is a weeding
opportunity you weed out the talent that
isn't actually Talent your company is
forced to become more efficient and less
complacent and then when you come out
you're uh more mature worked out
companies so to speak
so we heard about this idea potentially
of in the future the Roadster will have
a starling package I don't think we're
going anywhere on the Roadster anytime
soon sorry I won't want to it's not
coming anytime soon the model S plaid is
great but jetpack Roadster it's gonna be
a while I honestly don't think until
past 2030 it's just not going to be a
priority
the energy storage segment growing
faster than Automotive this is presently
true I would have loved a little bit of
a sort of a Elon a projection on what
kind of sustainable growth rate but we
could speculate on that whether it's 60
70 80 percent 50 however but it is more
than the automotive growth I think
there's also some potential to integrate
uh some form of artificial intelligence
chat bot at basically next to zero cost
for chat GPD or Bard or whatever into
the voice commands of a Tesla I think
that would be quite useful because I
think there's a lot of frustration
around the quality of uh voice chat but
generally that's always the case I feel
the same way about Siri
I would obviously love to see apple
carplay in the Tesla I don't think
that's ever going to happen GM is
actually they've got it in their cars
now they're taking it out of some of
their new cars kind of remarkable I
looked up
by a Bard actually uh what the cost is
for a manufacturer to include
Apple carplay in the car and as long as
you have the equipment there really
isn't an extra cost uh with the
exception of programming it and making
sure it operates and coordinates with
your system so I still think there's a
potential missed opportunity there just
because there's so much of an ease of
integration but I understand reading off
your calendar coordinating with FSD is
probably a lot more complicated than we
think but bottom line out of all of this
I think this was a phenomenal
presentation we know the next macro
cycle is going to be difficult when it
comes to interest rates somebody asked
oh why don't we do 10-year car loans
because cars generally don't keep their
value that long Elon said well you have
to resell these loans it's called
securitizing these loans which is you
bundle them up and you sell little bonds
of them nobody wants to hold a 30-year
Bond on cars because those cars are
gonna be worthless in 30 years that's
why it works on houses not on cars but
it's probably a good thing for
affordable ability anyway otherwise
people will stretch their payments
ridiculously and never build wealth
which is bad
not a big fan of buying cars
but I do think that when the Federal
Reserve begins cutting interest rates
margins will Skyrocket uh Tesla I mean
there's no question about that I mean
the entire Market should ride up but
think about it Tesla's subsidizing a lot
of their rates right now down to 3.9 and
you know what most people probably
weren't aware of that Hey where's Ryan
Reynolds on TV hey it's Ryan Reynolds
did you know that Tesla will let you
finance a car with full self-driving for
a 3.9 interest rate
for five six seven years whatever you
want
yeah I didn't either
and that's it just added little Clips
like that little 15 seconds but it's got
to be Riot it could be in this little in
front of his green screen background you
don't even have to do much work I think
there's so much phenomenal value you can
provide and see none of that is it's
none of it is clickbaity none of it is
is like trying to sell you on music or
cars rolling down the road it's just
valuable information which is obviously
what I try to provide every day on the
channel and hopefully you subscribe
share the video hopefully you uh enjoyed
the benefit to all of the Tesla
community of Elon
getting on the bandwagon or the train of
actually advertising
Tesla and the amazing value and the
incredibleness of this community uh so
uh this this is a win for everyone thank
you so much for watching thank you to
all those people again who came up and
shook my hand here's some more of you
shout out to all of you a big shout out
also uh to uh Jose and uh Sammy y'all
amazing thank you so much uh for the
plus ones yell Rock uh Christian I had a
great time and uh look forward to being
at Future meetings Martin at investor
relations you're amazing too we'll see
you all soon thanks
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