The Trump Tariff Disaster is Worse than Thought + Fed PISSED.

Holy smokes. I just saw Wall Street

freak out in their emails referencing

Dumb and Dumber quotes about how bad

things were getting. And in this video,

I'm going to break down to you what just

happened. And yeah, it's the same thing

that got Donald Trump to flip. And it's

a way worse than anybody's talking

about. So, we've got to address that.

Now, the good news is maybe we could

avoid that happening again. But there

are conditions growing right now that

say we may have just kicked the can down

the road. So, I'm going to give you

exactly what to pay attention to and

what to look for. In addition, we're

going to talk about what just happened

with Donald Trump raising tariffs on

China to not 125% but

actually

145%. So, we'll start with Wall Street

freaking out. We'll talk about the bond

market and Trump. We'll talk about

China. But what we're also going to do

is we're going to talk about the actual

practical impact of Donald Trump's

tariff flip-flop. We'll talk about the

Federal Reserve's response to this.

We'll talk about the CPI numbers and how

much you should be paying attention to

some of the data that's coming out and

specifically which data to pay attention

to. And I'll break down sort of my

thoughts on exactly what's going on. So,

there's a lot to cover. I'm going to try

to keep this as organized as possible

because yes, putting this together is a

lot and I understand watching it can be

a lot as well, but frankly, this is

really important information. So, let's

get started with the Namora research

freakout. So, this happened on Tuesday,

and I read this email on Tuesday, and

I'm like, my gosh, I've never seen

something like this before. That night,

we had a bond market crisis, and the

very next morning, Donald Trump

U-turned. Before we get to that, let me

show you some of the parts that were in

the email and the rest of it wasn't good

either. But let's just look at some of

the more glaring ones just to give you a

sample of how much Wall Street was

starting to freak out and how people

have already been laying the seeds for

Federal Reserve bailout. Yeah, you can't

make this stuff up. Take a look at this.

So, right here they show the VIX at an

extreme level relative to the VIX. and

they say, quote, "We are so cooked and

have no idea where we're going, but it's

going to be big." That's just one

sample. In their piece, they talk about

how shock levels right now, this was on

Tuesday, are back to levels we saw

during the summer of the COVID shutdown,

so think like April, May, and tariffs

are immediately going to drag US and

global growth lower in the weeks and

months ahead. These were some of the

items they talked about in their email.

They say that profit margin absorption

is likely to lead to layoffs and that

right now the cash bond calamity is the

worst that they've seen in their career.

That they're literally seeing a quote

vacuum of liquidity. And that's a

problem because when you get a vacuum of

liquidity, you prime yourself for more

shocks. And that's exactly what we want

to pay attention to is the potential for

real shocks. I want you to see this

screenshot from their letter right here

because it shows you how worried they

are. Take a look at this right

here. Oh, and as per Ryan Plant's note,

our pets heads are falling off where

it's just unwind city and bears

steepening shock with swap spreads and

basis trades melting blah blah blah cash

bond calamity and cheaping cheapening

violently to the swap. something Ryan

calls one of the largest, if not the

largest, I remember in my career. It's

simply a vacuum of liquidity at this

point. All right, I'm going to translate

all of this to English because this is

like CFA, extremely high level finance.

It makes sense if you're in it on a

daily basis for most of us. It it

doesn't. What you want to take away from

this is this No Mora research email.

I've never seen them say things like,

"This is the worst liquidity I've seen

my life. There's a calamity happening in

the bond market and we are so cooked we

have no idea where we're going but it's

about to be big. Those are like that's

not fear-mongering for me in my opinion.

That's me looking at this going, "Oh,

what the hell is going on? This this

doesn't sound good. This is unlike

something I've ever seen before." And

this explains why some people are

already begging for a Federal Reserve

bailout. But let's try to now explain

the bond crisis that happened on Tuesday

evening because it's going to help you

watch for what could happen again in the

future. And it has to do with the unwind

of the basis trade. Now, I'm going to

explain that really simply because

that's another one that's really

annoying. But let's put it this way. If

you want a single chart that should let

you know when you want to be concerned

about a credit shock happening, mind you

what a credit shock is, banks stop

lending to businesses. Liquidity dries

up, so banks can't lend anymore because

nobody's buying those loans on the

secondary market. So banks say, you know

what, we're done lending. And all of a

sudden, consumer credit dries up,

business credit dries up, and you're in

a deep, dark recession, right?

One tool to make this to make your life

easy if you want to track this is I want

you to watch what's going on in the

210ear spread. So just type this into

Google. Okay, we'll do it together here

so you could see how easy it is. 2 space

10 spread treasury CNBC enter. Okay,

click the first link. I want you to

watch this chart. This chart

historically says you have a loaded gun

to your head and you are primed for

problems when this number is

over.5 but only after you've gone

through a steep inversion which we have

gone through a steep inversion where the

number was negative. The last time was

in 2007 this happened and the time

before that was during the dotcom

bubble. Usually you get a shock between

the level of 0.5 and 0.9 that confirms a

recession and the basis trade liquidity

unwind could just be a contributor to

that. Now if you want to skip this

explanation just skip forward like a

minute or two but if you want to hear it

I'm going to use Tesla stock to try to

explain the basis trade. The easiest way

to explain this is assume that instead

of treasuries uh we'll use Tesla stock.

that's a little bit more relatable to us

and I think we can understand that a

little bit better. So, what I want you

to think is let's say you buy a 100

shares of Tesla uh at uh

$200 and uh that would work out to

$20,000 or yeah $20,000, right? So 20K

is is what you've invested 100x Tesla

shares at $220. I know Tesla's not

trading for $200 right now. I'm just

using this to have simple math. Now,

what you're going to do is you're going

to have a short futures contract. This

basically means you are promising to

deliver a 100 shares of Tesla, except

you're going to bet that you could

deliver those at

$210. Now, the goal of this is that

you're going to earn premium on this

futures contract because you're selling

a contract. So, you're going to earn

premium for that. And somebody who buys

that is assuming Tesla might be worth a

lot more. And the difference between a

futures contract and an option, mind

you, it's just that a futures contract

promises a delivery at the expiration

date. This is this is critical. And

again, replace Tesla for treasuries

here. Again, if this is complicated,

just skip forward like a minute or two

because there's a lot we have to cover

here. But just to give you a quick

example of what the heck happened on

Tuesday night, apparently, and this is

in the treasuries market, so replace

Tesla stock with treasuries. Apparently,

what happened is there was so much drama

in the stock market that people were

selling stocks like the Japanese carry

trade situation. They're selling gold

and they're selling bonds and all of a

sudden treasury yields are skyrocketing.

The 30-year went almost up to 5%.

Because people are dumping treasury

bonds. So, what happens? Well, again,

assume Tesla stock is that treasury.

Let's say Tesla stock goes to

$150. Okay? Well, you've just lost

25% on your underlying uh $20,000

investment. And since you probably took

on margin for this futures contract,

which is commonly done in banking, you

typically see 20 to 50x margin on these

basis trades. And that sounds insane.

Well, because it is, but it's usually

because the treasury market doesn't move

that much. like you're not going to take

20 to 50x margin on Tesla, but you might

on treasuries because they they usually

don't move so dramatically. The problem

was everybody was dumping stocks so much

Thursday, Friday, Monday that all of a

sudden it got to people dumping treasury

bonds and treasury bond yields are

skyrocketing. You know, TLT is getting

smoked as an example. Why? Because

people are panic selling. Then they're

getting margin called. So now what's

happening is sure they're making money

on their futures contract, right? you

get to keep your premium over here, but

the premium you're earning here is a

fraction of the money you just lost on

the underlying Tesla shares that you're

long on. So, how it actually happened

was again, this was your underlying

treasuries were losing a crapload of

money. So, you got margin called and

then you had to sell your underlying

positions and then you had to panic

close your futures contracts too to try

to make up, you know, at least some

premium so you could pay off your

margin. and basically led to reinforced

selling in the bond market. And this is

why institutions are like, "Oh my gosh,

we're seeing just a complete liquidity

trap." Because what happens when people

quickly sell a lot of treasuries, you

need a counterparty to buy those

treasuries. Problem is, dealers couldn't

buy all of that volume. And so what

happens? Well, the price just plummets

even more until somebody buys it and

rates skyrocket. Now, what's interesting

is this is exactly what was foreshadowed

by a Brookings paper uh just about a

week and a half ago. Now, this is kind

of eerie, but I want you to see this.

Here's a Brookings paper. Here are just

segments from it. Treasury market

dysfunction and the role of the central

bank March 27th to 28th. Here they

basically explain that any exogeneous

shock that reduces the wealth of hedge

funds or impairs their access to funding

can lead to sharp unwinds leading to a

spike in the price differential between

the two markets. Okay, this is all like

fugazi fugazi like big language stuff,

right? But listen to this. To relieve

the stress on dealers, it would be

sufficient for the Fed to take the other

side of this unwind purchasing Treasury

securities and fully hedging this

purchase with an offsetting sale of

futures. Okay? In other words, let the

Fed take over the basis trade. This

paper was issued before liberation day

because the problems were already

growing and they just came to to a

critical mass on the night of the 8th.

Now, here's a former Fed staffer now at

Bank of America also freaking out and

this was on Monday and they basically

say when Treasury assets are liquidated,

dealer capacity can be overwhelmed and

assets cheapen versus Fed policy

benchmarks. Swaps are not assets.

therefore cannot be sold to generate

cash in uncertain shocks like the April

2nd tariff announcement. This is the

same person by the way that predicted

the Fed was going to come bail out

markets in March of 2020 during co. So,

in other words, like most of us have

been watching the market over the past,

you know, week here and we're like, "Oh,

great. Yay." You know, things are fine.

But what actually happened behind the

scene behind the scenes was anything but

fine. But institutions, hedge funds, Fed

watchers, people were freaking out. Now,

I mean, I know you and me, we're like,

who cares if the hedgeis lose money? The

problem isn't that the hedgeis lose

money. It's that liquidity goes to zero

and lending stops. That's the whole

point. That is a credit shock. And a

credit shock is like a loaded gun that

you're holding to your head and you have

a hair trigger. And credit shocks are

most likely when that 210 spread is

above 0.5. This morning when I was

actually planning this video, it was at

48. Well, now we're at 0.56. But then

again, this morning I also sent a

message to all my, you know, course

members, not only in the live stream,

but in the alpha report. I want you to

hear what I said, okay? I said that I

feel like we are going to see a

reloading of shorts today and I am not

bullish on buying. Let's watch. Let's

see what happens. But I think what's

going to happen is we're going to move

lower and puts or certainly sold calls

are a lot more desirable. That's what I

sent in the alpha report. That's what I

sent to course members this morning. And

I said, look, Tesla being down 3% is

fine. It was up 22% yesterday. But the

problem is if Tesla loses the 258 line,

we're probably going down to 248 to 250

again. And take a look what happened.

You can see Tesla's now down

7.69%. Now, this is all stuff that I say

here in the pre-market and if you want

access to this, just join the Meet Kevin

membership. I do this every single day

and and I take the bias out of it. I

just try to give you information. Now,

there's a lot more to talk about. We got

to talk about inflation, the Fed, and

China. There's a lot we have to talk

about in here, but I just want, you

know, 10-second pitch here, okay? Go to

me, Kevin. You get all the trade alerts,

all eight courses, every private live

stream, every alpha report where I talk

about this stuff. I give you the setup

as the market opens and before the

market opens. So, you're ready. And if

you want this, select your access. You

want to pay monthly, quarterly,

annually. All of these prices are going

up on April 15th in 5 days. So, check it

out. If you got questions, email us at

staffme.com. All right. And enough of

that. So now what we need to talk about

is now we know that we were really close

to hell. Really close to banking hell.

This is why Jamie Diamond went on Fox uh

you know Maria's show uh Wednesday

morning and is like yeah we're probably

leaning into a recession here and things

are bad. People think that Donald Trump

not only saw that show but then got a

text from Jamie's like you need to do

something. So yeah insiders knew that

Trump was going to flip. Bloomberg

argues that Trump flipped due to the

bond market. And Trump also says that

Trump says, "I saw last night people

were getting a little queasy about the

bond market and he flips." So there's no

question that this wasn't planned. Okay,

Trump Trump didn't plan this. Trump had

to flip because things were about to go

to hell. So he did the right thing. He

flipped. Thank Thank goodness he did

because things could have been really

bad. The problem is Trump may not be

done with this. And the more the stock

market recovers, the more we embolden

Trump to actually be more aggressive

with tariff policy. I want you to see

this journal piece that's out today.

Take a look at this line in here. In the

journal piece, Trump played his cards

close to his vest. He told advisers that

he was willing to take pain. A person

who spoke to him on Monday said he

privately acknowledged that his trade

policy could trigger a recession, but

said he wanted to be sure it didn't

cause a depression, according to people

familiar with conversations. So in other

words, Trump is willing to suffer a

recession and that's why but he he

blinked because of the bond market, but

he's willing to suffer a recession. And

a lot of people on Wall Street are like,

"Oh, this is just going to be a

technical recession. This will be a soft

or short recession." The problem with

that, folks, is that's what everybody

said in 2006. And remember, the biggest

bare market or like the biggest rallies

in the stock market usually occur during

bare markets.

Look at this for a moment. I'll put this

on screen here. Take a look at this.

This was in 1930 during the Great

Depression. You literally had jumps of

plus 48% plus 16% plus 24 plus 26 plus

38%. These are massive

moves, but you were on a massive

downtrend for years. So, we have to be

careful about assuming that these bare

market rallies are reducing risk.

They're actually increasing risk because

a they embolden Trump and b things are

more expensive. And that's why I think

people are diversifying and and they're

trying to get out of the stock market uh

at higher prices. So they're taking

advantage of these rallies. You know,

yesterday closing shorts. Today maybe

reloading on shorts. We'll see. Now,

where are we with tariffs today? Well,

the problem is we think that tariffs

flip-flopped away, but they may not

have. Tariffs on China were just

clarified by the White House not to be

125%. They're actually 145%. which is an

extra 20% because the fentanyl tariffs,

the you know 301 tariffs, this is even

higher than where we thought uh the the

tariffs were going to be. So this means

you have 125% reciprocal tariffs,

fentanyl tariffs of 21% section 301 plus

the baseline tariffs, you know,

typically somewhere between 1 to 3%.

This is 145 to 148% set of tariffs on

China. Mind you, Tesla is not immune to

this. Tesla gets in my estimates 98% of

their batteries from China. the lithium

ion phosphate batteries. I'm not talking

about the, you know, 4680s that we, uh,

you know, assemble at Lethrop Lethrop

and, um, uh, and in Austin for the

Cybert trucks, the structural batteries,

which, you know, there have been

questions around how efficient these are

anyway. But they're certainly more

expensive, way more expensive than what

China's doing. And this is problematic.

This is where the margins are for Tesla.

And I love Tesla. I'm just saying this

this is a margin hit for Tesla. Like

Tesla's real exposure to China. These

China tariffs are the worst and it

doesn't feel like things are getting

better. Not only that, but there's the

argument being made by Bloomberg that

the tariffs that we have now are

actually

worse than where we were before uh

Trump's

flip-flop for consumer goods. Now,

that's crazy, but look at this. Here's

where tariffs were in 2024. Very low,

somewhere around 2%. Without reciprocal

tariffs, you know, with the 20% tariffs

or whatever, we're somewhere around an

average of 8 to 10%. with China's 84%

reciprocal and country specific. So

before the flip-flop, we were somewhere

over here at 27%. And now we're sitting

at maybe 26% tariffs. So in other and

and this is this is 125% for China.

Bloomberg hasn't even updated that to

145 yet because the White House just

minutes ago came out and said, "Oh, it's

actually 12 45, not 125." So this comes

after yesterday where they're like, "Oh,

we're not actually going to raise

tariffs on China anymore. 125 is the

cap." And then today they're like, "Oh,

but we forgot the fentanyl tariffs, so

it's actually 145." This is crazy. This

is like pure insanity, and it hurts

consumer goods even more. Now, people

are like, "Oh, we're just going to bully

China." I don't think so. I mean, I

follow uh the the and this, you know,

people leaving comments like, "Kevin,

you're just sharing Chinese

propaganda." Look at this. Maybe it is.

But look at this. Chinese embassy in US.

We will absolutely not sit by and let

others take away the Chinese people's

legitimate rights and interest or let

anyone sabotage international trade

rules or multilateral trading system.

This was posted today, April 10th. So,

you know, let it be Chinese propaganda,

but the reality is we're not seeing

progress on a trade deal with China.

Certainly not a Tik Tok deal at this

point. Things are getting worse with

China, not better.

So now we got to talk about CPI and the

Fed and there's a lot to talk about

here. But why did stocks rally so much

then yesterday? Well, part of it was

probably vibes. You know, people like,

"Oh my gosh, we have hope. We have hope

that that, you know, there's an end to

the tariffs coming and we're going to

avoid a recession." The reality is most

of it was probably short covering. Uh in

fact, Goldman Sachs reported uh that uh

what do we have here? Hedge fund shorts,

covers, and macro products uh were were

the majority of flows from hedge funds.

However, we did also see the long only

community buy tickets and super cap tech

as markets moved higher. And the irony

about buying stocks when they're going

up is you're actually increasing your

risk, but whatever. And leveraged ETF

demand into the close appeared very

real. Leveraged ETFs are like the

stupidest things ever, mind you. Uh and

and you know, I I talked to my course

members about this too, and you should

know this, but so I'm just going to give

you a quick example on this. People

always ask me, "Oh, why not have a

triple leverage ETF?" It's fine for the

very short term, you know, one, two

months. But look at what can happen in a

down market with a leveraged ETF. Let's

say you start with $100 and you have no

leverage and you get a minus30% decline.

Okay? So the market goes down 30%. Well,

now you're at $70, right? Well, let's

say you have a 3x leverage fund that

you're invested in, like a 3x micro

strategy or Tesla or whatever. Well, in

this extreme example where you get minus

30%, you lose $90. So you're down to

$10. Now, after that, let's say the

stock triples. Well, if you just had the

regular stock, your $70 would now be

$210. If you had the triple leveraged

ETF, your $10 would now be $30. So, like

a down market destroys you if you have

exposure to leveraged ETFs. Nobody's

talking about that. And and this is the

kind of perspective I I just I I need

you to know because I feel like you come

to my channel to get the aha moments

that you're just not getting anywhere

else because people are paring, you

know, their their left-wing bias or

their right-wing bias to you. And I'm

just trying to provide facts. I it

doesn't it doesn't matter to me. Okay?

I've I you know, I've positioned myself

for safety as of last July. So what

happens in the market doesn't matter.

Treasury market goes kaput, the stock

market goes kaput, it doesn't matter

because my exposure is house hack and

cash, baby. There's some bonds, but

house hack's great. You know, there's a

reason. I'm just looking at this. We got

we got another it was like another 10%

set of inflows yesterday. Uh probably

because there was a jump in pricing. I'm

looking at it here. Probably because

there was a jump in um uh in stock

market prices and people are like, "Oh,

great. We can finally get out." I'm not

saying that with certainty. It's hard to

know that with certainty. Uh but what I

can tell you is uh and I'll give you

this little sneak peek. I posted this on

uh on X as a little bit of a spoiler,

but uh you know, in my opinion, we have

something really cool coming that nobody

else is doing. Uh and this is just an

example of it here. So, you can see this

screenshot right here. Coming soon.

Swipe up to buy or sell fractional real

estate with no fees. And so, we'll have

like individual little uh opportunities

like Houseack will put this together uh

and and you know, a trading facility as

well. So you could like real-time trade

this with no fees. No trading fees, no

fees on the fund. Like basically a zero

fee residential real estate fund or

various ones of them. Uh here's an

example where we'll have like a Tesla US

factories one where so we buy real

estate within some radius of uh Tesla

factories. So if you want exposure to

Tesla related or Tesla adjacent real

estate, it gives you an opportunity to

do that. But not only do that, you can

also trade uh and and so you have

instant liquidity with no fees, which is

great because, you know, a lot of the

real estate products that exist are

really high fee uh and you don't get

good liquidity. Well, so we're going to

change that. So, that's really exciting.

We got some cool things coming with

outside, but that's probably still, you

know, 9 to 12 months out and uh and and

certainly we'll have closed our fund

raise before we launch that because I I

suspect valuation will be quite

different then. Who knows? We'll see. Uh

so anyway um so what what we have to

watch for now is the response from not

only China but also the Federal Reserve

and data. So this morning you've got

folks like David Sachs screaming that oh

it's time for a rate cut. Okay look

David Sachs the Federal Reserve is not

going to cut rates because March

inflation was low. March inflation was

low because we didn't have tariffs yet.

And a lot of businesses are like, "We

are purposefully not going to raise

prices because we're going to raise

prices in April when the tariffs hit. So

get in now." And so you actually had

great sales. You know, Best Buy sales up

8% in March. That's a huge move. They

haven't seen that since co. But here's

the problem with the Federal Reserve.

The Federal Reserve does not want a

repeat of the 1970s. Lori Logan this

morning spoke and said the desire to cut

rates in the face of potentially higher

inflation is basically zero. So don't

expect rate cuts soon. Schmidt from the

Kansas City Fed, he argues that we're

not going to rely on the temporary

effects of tariffs and uh in you know

inflation basically. So in other words,

we're not going to assume that inflation

is going to be transitory because of

these tariffs. And how could they be?

They're insane right now. And the risks

are growing that we have to balance

growth and employment with inflation.

Basically, this is a warning to you that

growth is about to take it in the nose

and employment is about to take it in

the nose or on the nose, I guess. So to

me, the Federal Reserve is bluntly

telling you there's no chance of a rate

cut soon. Schmidt literally said this

morning, we are moving from a position

of strength to a quote challenging

period. And they're watching liquidity

minuteby minute. Well, what did I just

spend 20 minutes talking to you about? A

liquidity vacuum. This is a disaster.

People don't have money right now. The

cash is running dry. Now, sure, could

that lead to a Fed bailout? Yeah, that

doesn't necessarily like having a

liquidity facility for hedge funds so

they can actually dump more does not

mean the Fed's going to cut rates.

That's very different. See, the Fed can

have a liquidity fund for hedge funds,

not you. Rates can still stay high. And

so, you have to remember the 1970s. The

1970s are credited with having the worst

Federal Reserve chairman ever. His name

was Arthur Burns. And I feel bad for

him, but basically anytime some data

came out, he would raise or reduce rates

rapidly. So, there were insane

fluctuations in rate policy in the 70s.

And it basically led the Fed to lose all

the credibility they have. Again, I'm

not saying they're super credible today.

I'm just saying that they lost their

credibility. Then it took Paul Vulkar

earning it back, who put us through a

double recession, 80 and 82, to finally

solve inflation. And then we had, you

know, a good decade of stock gains after

that. Powell studies Paul Vulkar and

Arthur Burns and he talks highly of Paul

Vulkar and never mentions Arthur Burns.

Well, that's because, as you would

expect, you do not want to repeat the

1970s because then you go into a

stagflation mess and nobody believes the

Fed. So, in my opinion, the odds of a

Fed rate cut are actually quite low in

the near term. And that's because, you

know, here's our Fed calendar. I think

you need April, May, June inflation data

because then you would have 3 months of

inflation data, a quarter of inflation

data suggesting that tariffs are or are

not causing inflation before they cut

rates. That would mean maybe you could

get a rate cut July 29th, but I don't

think you get a rate cut before that.

So, that's not super ideal because

people are begging for a rate cut right

now to sort of prop up their stocks or

their investments. But, I think it's

misplaced. As somebody who's, you know,

a Fed watcher, I I I don't see this

happening. Now, I know markets are

pricing in three to four, sometimes even

five rate cuts depending on the day. But

I think a lot of that is because

markets, the bond market is frankly

seeing the odds of a recession over the

next 12 months as sure being a little

bit lower than yesterday because of the

tariff flip-flop. But again, the damage

of these China tariffs and the 10%

tariffs plus you know all the fentanyl

tariffs uh and and you know other

aspects. These these are a real problem.

So we're not done yet. Sure, Trump got a

little bit of a solace out of uh of the

hell that was caused, but you know more

tariffs are coming. copper tariffs,

lumber tariffs, pharma tariffs, semis

tariffs, it's all still coming. That's

the Trump irony. The more stability

there is in the market, in the stock

market and the bond market specifically,

the more aggressive Trump gets, it gives

him more of a reason to push for more

tariffs. Uh, and so this is why I think

people are smart to take a bounce and

diversify. And I think that's exactly

what's happening in the markets. And

that's what I called for this morning in

the alpha report. I'm like, I I don't I

don't think the the prices are going to

keep up and you're going to see a sell

down. And I mean, as I'm watch I'm I'm

recording this video, Tesla's now down

almost 10%. It's down another 3%. I gave

this heads up to all of my course

members in the alpha report and in our

course member live stream this morning.

I've been doing this every single day.

Uh if you want to join, go to

mekevin.com so you can be a part of

that. But that said, I want you to have

my rationale here. Now, what's next?

Well, the bottom line is this walk back

yesterday was because Donald Trump was

driven to the brink because of the bond

market, but it doesn't change the

fundamentals. Donald Trump is still

priming for more tariffs and more

aggressiveness. Now, what would an

upshot look like? Well, how about some

actual deals announced? Not this Taiwan

Vietnam talk, but actual deals. We want

actual deals. How about progress with

China? That would be huge. How about

actual deals with the European Union?

That would be huge. And then we need to

confirm the April, May, June data, which

is always lagged by six weeks. you know,

this this March CPI data, yeah, it was

negative, but the Fed doesn't care about

that. They care about the post tariff

effects. So, you're going to look at

April, May, June. The problem is you're

not going to actually get that data

until May, June, July, and then you have

the end of July Fed meeting. Isn't it

going to look at March pre-tariff data?

Come on, man. It's a joke. Of course, we

were experiencing deflation and

disinflation before, but Trump's not

responsible for that. Trump's

responsible for the inflation we're

about to see. So, uh, anyway, look, on

the bare bull scale, I'm still sitting

at a 29. I actually haven't changed it

at all, uh, since liberation day. It's

still it's it's like it's not like sell

everything, you know, a level of one,

but I've just been stuck at 29. I'm not

bullish. I'm not enticed to buy the dip.

I don't feel FOMO. Uh I feel fear that

uh that that people are uh buying the

dip on margin and they're frankly going

to get screwed and then lose their job

and then be mega screwed and

bankruptcies are going to skyrocket. So

I'm I'm nervous. Uh and it doesn't help

that the 102 spread is is over 50. It's

now at 57. It's crazy. Anyway, these are

all my thoughts on everything that's

gone on. Hopefully this is helpful and

useful to you. Thanks so much. Goodbye

and good luck. Why not advertise these

things that you told us here? I feel

like nobody else knows about this. We'll

we'll try a little advertising and see

how it goes. Congratulations, man. You

have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you. Kevin Pra there,

financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet

Kevin. Always great to get your take.