f*ck this

hey everyone me kevin here it is time

for your daily dose of fud let's get

right into your daily dose of fud which

includes updates from not only the

federal reserve but also multiple

earnings reports the philly fed survey

we're going to break this one down we'll

talk about what the heck is going on

with btc and what happened with some

interesting earnings yesterday let's get

right into it first let's talk about

what the most hawkish member of the

federal reserve

mr james bullard had to say mr james

ballard said that bringing inflation

down

to two percent may ultimately require

the federal reserve overshooting

interest rates well above two percent

this is kind of like the opposite of the

flexible average inflation targeting

that the federal reserve used to tell us

about how transitory inflation would be

last year when they said hey we don't

mind the fate of just letting inflation

run hot for a little bit because it'll

just average two percent in the long run

well james bullard doesn't think so he

says quote if you want to put downward

pressure on inflation you'd actually

have to get to neutral

and then go beyond neutral

this was at an event hosted by columbia

university today in new york and he says

quote i think that's a major concern of

mine we're not really in a position to

do that right now but we have to get in

a position to do that so in other words

he's kind of saying like the economy is

not ready to support us being at two

percent rates because it might be too

restrictive

but we're in this position where we kind

of have to because inflation is so high

now much of the federal reserve and many

individuals believe that at some point

once supply chains improve things will

just get better but he argues that he

does not see inflation dissipating

anytime soon in fact he says quote we

have to manage the risk that inflation

does not dissipate as some people might

hope

and after all he says the market is

quote losing faith to some degree that

inflation is going to dissipate in any

amount of reasonable time now there are

two things are really driving inflation

obviously the big one supply chains

leading to substantially higher input

costs for corporations but it's not just

supply chains and even commodity costs

which are through the freaking roof for

raw material costs it's also the fact

that wages are going up substantially

especially amongst those earning less

than a hundred thousand dollars we're

seeing substantial wage increases to the

point where even apple

just last week announced a pretty rare

across-the-board wage hike for all of

the employees not

in their engineering departments or

their higher paid tech departments but

in their retail stores where the genius

bar workers are and the sales associates

work and so this is potentially creating

we're not confident yet that it has but

it's potentially leading to fears that

we will face a wage price spiral wage

price spiral wages go up that leads

costs for businesses to go up businesses

want to preserve margins so they raise

prices but then because prices are

higher wage earners again demand more

wages and you keep moving so on and so

forth so far the only person that i've

really seen who's like

in the whole economic space and i'm sure

there are many more out there but one

who's relatively prominent is the

director of the university of miss

michigan

university of michigan consumer

confidence index my goodness uh this is

that report that we got that showed that

consumer confidence had actually fallen

that individuals were becoming less

confident and that they actually

expected inflation to be lower in about

a year's time frame right which was

which is good signs because it's like oh

great maybe if consumers chill out and

they stop spending as much maybe

inflation will go away but the problem

is the director literally of that survey

told us yeah we're seeing a decoupling

of

inflationary concerns from just supply

chains

and instead we're seeing them move over

to the wage price spiral side which

means even as supply chains get better

we might not actually see inflation come

down which i thought to myself like wow

that's weird like why and then it hit me

oh my gosh

what did autonation tell us this morning

now i don't think autonation is going to

be like every corporation in the world

but autonation is the largest car

dealership chain

and

uh to me i don't know about you okay but

to me this just sounds pretty much like

straight up corporate greed but again i

want to hear it from you they say

discounts at car dealerships may be a

thing of the past

which i mean initially hear that and i'm

like okay yeah jcpenney tried the whole

no coupon thing in everyday low prices

and we saw what happened with jcpenney

anyway according to bloomberg autonation

suggests that tighter inventories have

persisted even as vehicle production has

ramped up and now argues that there's no

reason to return to excessively high

inventory levels on lots ever because

all that does is end up depressing new

vehicle margins and they also suggest

that significant discounting ends up

damaging their brands and so now they're

trying to do everything to keep their

prices high get this folks and this is

this is just nasty ugly and disgusting

gm and ford are thinking about

purposefully limiting production even as

chip shortages ease

so that way they can continue to

maintain higher prices

car dealers are also more often than

they have ever before in the past are

charging above sticker price we'll give

you statistics after this anecdote went

to a car dealership went to a toyota

dealership and you see a normal prius

that usually retails for about thirty

five thousand dollars on sticker had a

byline under it that's a ten thousand

dollar dealer premium basically because

the dealer has so few cars they're just

like we're just going to charge an extra

ten thousand dollars because we can

now jim farley the ceo of ford said that

at ford this was only common in about 10

of dealers and suggested that this was

unacceptable but acknowledged it was

happening but when we actually look at

the data we see that in 2021 percent of

cars sold above their sticker price so

two percent of all cars sold above their

sticker price

last month though in january for all the

people in the uh inflationist transitory

camp

80

of cars

80. that's 40 times as many were sold

above sticker

that's absolutely insane but anyway so

uh look you've got bullard obviously

sending up this massive fear flag in

addition to what's happening in russia

which we'll talk about in just a moment

and then of course you have doves who

say things like no no no we're not going

to do emergency hikes we're not going to

go aggressive here because that could

shock markets and when i say shock

markets they're generally not worried

about stock prices trending down that

actually de-risks things they're worried

about sudden circuit breaker style drops

where all of a sudden banks are like

okay stop lending right when you freak

out banks you stall lending you cancel

mortgages you shock the workings of the

economy and that can lead you to a

depression he says nah that won't be a

problem we need to regain credibility

let's get to one percent interest by

july 1st he moved that back by the way

he first said june 1st like a week ago

and now he's saying july 1st but

whatever let's get to one percent as

soon as possible

get back the credibility we need because

right now we don't have any credibility

left is what mr ballard says

either way look the minutes yesterday

from the federal reserve they didn't

give us any extremely hawkish clues but

we're starting i mean nothing more than

what we heard in december so it was like

no news yesterday right but we're

certainly seeing this massive divergence

between people like bullard who are like

ah stocks will be fine don't worry about

it markets will be fine let's just hike

of course he's got to say that to sell

his pitch right to sell his argument uh

and mary daley is like no no no no no we

gotta be careful we can be careful we

don't we don't want to go into a

depression by tightening too soon

besides inflation is transitory and so

you really got to evaluate yourself

what the heck you're going to do with

your portfolio right obviously you have

two choices you could just keep buying

the freaking dip which i i bought a

little bit of the dip this morning and i

feel responsible for crashing the market

but i don't feel responsible for calling

the uh wedge breakout that we saw on

gold when i bought over seven figures of

gold just a week ago and now we're

seeing that wedge breakout the gold

miners are doing better than gold itself

but i mean look at like barrick gold for

example they are absolutely killing it

uh and we're just now getting a

uh an update here that russian forces

are moving closer to ukraine's border

say uk sources and the guardian

it's not good which we're going to talk

about russia in just a moment but quick

mention then we're going to talk about

russia then we're going to talk about

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kevin well folks now we need to talk

about russia blinking and this is

probably what's really weighing on

markets today secretary of state blink

and is set to meet with russian

counterparts sergey lavrov next week as

biden warns that the possibility of an

invasion is very high we were initially

told that russia was going to start

withdrawing at troops from the border

around ukraine as some exercises had

completed but this was really just putin

saying alright to

his his uh foreign ministers

and uh it's not actually what happened

it actually looked like troops were

sending more blood supplies to the

border that potentially as many as 7 000

more troops were moved to the border and

now reuters is reporting and posting

images of

apparently shells that have hit

buildings in ukraine including a

kindergarten

thankfully it didn't appear that anyone

was hurt monitoring agencies though in

eastern europe have cited numerous

ceasefire violations on both sides and

this is raising concerns that

essentially this could be the perfect

setup for false flag operations

that that

russia then uses

to

invade

big problem and the market's probably

heavily reacting to this now next we got

to talk about the philly fed and what

happened this morning with the philly

fed but it's also worth just quickly

noting that treasuries are declining

right now we got the 10-year about 1.97

this is actually helping steepen the

yield curve which is usually a sign that

a recession is less likely to come but

this could be thrown off kilter because

people are also fleeing stocks to the

safety of bonds and when you flee to the

safety of bonds you can screw up the

yield curve so the yield curve has been

just a disaster on one side you got the

federal reserve and its ridiculousness

and and the way they manipulate markets

uh and then of course now you have this

fear play going on as well uh now uh so

treasury's going down to some degree

makes sense what we're seeing with the

yield curves to some degree make sense

it doesn't quite make sense that as

fears are rising about an invasion

you're actually seeing oil go down two

percent but i'm just gonna say for these

two things

whatever

like sometimes you just don't have an

answer as to why the market does things

i will say though we do have a little

bit of a conversation to have

about bitcoin and then we got to talk

about the philly fed because the philly

fed this this was interesting from this

morning and then we're going to get to

some earnings okay so first of all

bitcoin of course we're going to jump

over to ftx which if you have not yet

signed up for ftx to get your free 10

make sure to do that but we did have btc

break below our 2k support which is not

ideal we want to see btc above 2k

honestly bitcoin has been doing quite

well relative to stocks uh just this the

last honestly six weeks here btc has

been

performing much better that is losing

less money than a lot of different

stocks so it's quite interesting and of

course you could cherry pick other

stocks that have done well but broadly

uh btc has performed quite well here so

if you want to trade btc or any of the

other cryptos make sure to check out ftx

by the link in the description down

below now let's talk about the philly

fed okay this this is a big one here

right

so the philly fed released a report on

manufacturing business outlook this

morning it was it was quite interesting

some of the commentary that we had here

so here we go

the survey's current indicators for uh

general activity new orders and

shipments declined from last month so

this is generally we don't want to see a

slowing right because that creates

stagflationary fears and so we're seeing

some

decline uh from last month's readings

but still positive now that's that's

very important we want to remain

positive and here is one of the most

important sections firms continue to

report increases in prices for inputs

and their own goods

it's not just the input costs it's that

they're raising prices as well the price

is paid diffusion index edged down a

little bit so we didn't have as

aggressive

of an inflationary pressure which could

be a teeny tiny little sign of maybe a

little bit of an inflection point there

in inflation which is good i like seeing

a little three-point move from about 72

to 69.3

but folks listen to this

74 percent of firms so like

three-fourths of firms reported

increases in input prices and only five

percent reported declines now what we

want to see is that number grow we want

to see to verify this as an inflection

point we want to start seeing that maybe

65 percent of firms reported increases

in input prices and 15 noted decreases

right these are the things that we want

to track so this actually has

a little inkling of good news now this

good news is certainly not enough to

move markets and probably very few

people are actually paying attention to

it but it's very very very important

now this was interesting firms expect

own price increases to match inflation

rates so in other words we're expecting

prices to kind of continue to spiral up

unfortunately and this was not so great

remember what we talked about regarding

the wage price spiral firms expect their

employee compensation costs

to rise five percent over the next four

quarters

that is not not we're done raising uh

employee costs we're seeing employee

costs go up no no we still expect them

to go up five percent that is actually

an increase from the last read that we

had from november

uh now we also have the expectation by

firms that inflation will be around five

percent over the next year uh this is a

lot higher of an expectation by firms

compared to consumers consumers think

inflation's gonna be like three and a

half percent in a year from now uh so

firm's definitely expecting more uh more

inflation here

now then we also saw 38 percent of firms

expect growth over the next six months

so you've got you know almost four

tenths almost 40 percent of firms here

thinking oh we're going to see growth

over the next six months but look at

this 10 percent think there'll be a

decrease and 45 think things will just

be mostly stable so this will be

something to kind of keep an eye on as

well is it possible that we start seeing

growth in the number of firms that think

we might expect to decline or flattening

versus continued growth so this is from

the philly fed now we got to talk about

some of the other earnings but there

because there's some drama here okay

applied materials see supply chain

challenges remaining throughout the year

but that's particularly because applied

materials is already sold out for the

entire year like they literally are sold

out for the entire year which is

mind-blowing nvidia absolutely crushed

it their margins fell slightly but they

did have a nice beat and their q1 guide

came in at 8.1 bill versus the point or

i'm sorry the 7.3 expected so really

really good here they did take a 1.36

billion dollar write-off on a prepayment

for the arm deal so there was a little

bit of a hit to bottom line here but

otherwise

absolutely killed it now they didn't

talk much about pricing pressures or

about supply chain issues they briefly

mentioned supply chain issues as

essentially things that they're still

working on and that they work with

regularly but not a lot of insight here

biggest insight i would say from them uh

is that they noticed that uh a

substantial decline

or significant weakness in crypto mining

demand that was the wording that they

used

now uh i also want to show you an

example here of what

advanced auto parts said i thought this

was interesting because i've been

reading a lot of these reports i don't

even want to get into wing stop okay

wing stop had like their chicken prices

skyrocket uh to the tune of over 29

their total costs were up like 17

they're like oh my gosh we got to raise

prices but you're seeing this kind of

madness at almost all of the earnings

calls i mean it could be o'reilly auto

parts heineken craft heinz these are

just some from from the last few days i

mean of course i've been reading under

armor ralph lauren uh i mean you name it

crocs shopify they're all complaining

about the same things

but i want to look at advanced auto

parts because this i thought was very

very interesting

they said here at the top section

uh so let me provide color on on what

we're thinking about our pricing

strategy

three things first of all we've been

conducting a survey among our

professional customers for many years

and to give you a data point from last

year's survey the top three variables so

the top three reasons somebody would buy

stuff from advanced auto parts were

number one

ease of doing business

number

uh sorry number one was availability

number two was ease of doing business

right here and number three was speed so

do you have the part

how fast can i get it and how easy is it

to work with you

right

in in the particular order that i

initially read it here and they said

that all of these three factors were

more important

than price

that's wild because that means the

professionals are like i don't care give

me the part my customer will pay don't

care if the price is higher they got

more dollar hollis let's go give me the

parts uh so this this was quite

interesting i also saw on the crocs

earnings call that they're trying to do

nfts with crocs and i'm like the last

thing i need is more crocs around

anyway uh i do briefly want to talk

about uh matterport firm palantir

look

if companies have no earnings which

these companies don't

you're just going to probably keep

seeing pain i hate to say it it was one

of the reasons i sold a while ago

because

you you are you are just in uh

unfortunately uh a regime change a

cyclical change and this cyclical change

will continue

unless we hit like a soft landing and

it's like oh okay wow inflation actually

came down and then maybe we can get more

into the companies that have i have no

earnings yet but otherwise

there's no floor right now i hate to say

there's no freaking floor

it sucks

uh now uh obviously if you want to join

me in the morning course member live

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something a little bit more complete the

real estate investing or the stocks and

psychology of money group do check those

out uh but i want to say about

matterport as well the fact that they're

coming out with a 59 axis

is great to be competitive but is

honestly kind of terrible for for the uh

for their margins i mean i you know back

in 2017 when i originally wanted to

invest in this company they were selling

their matterport pro 2 for like four

grand you know now they're selling a a

59 motor that you throw on a tripod so

that your camera can spin around your

iphone lidar based camera it can

basically do the uh the the work for you

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way you can put your email address in

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video is brought to you by titan

but uh i do encourage checking this out

i mean 59. their product revenues i

think are going to go negative well not

only well i mean they are already going

negative i mean like their margins are

going to go negative on product which is

not good they're in this transition and

and i think this is a very difficult

thing for folks to remember as well

because this is the same thing i said

about coinbase uh is that when a

company's in trans transition you're

gonna go through like a an sh9t period

of time okay because what happens is if

you have high

product revenue or in the course of

coinbase their product would be let's

say trading so we'll put pt okay if you

have high product or trading revenue in

the case of matterport and coinbase

but you know that this product revenue

is going to decline at the same time as

your service revenue goes up

this period of time right here is going

to suck for the stock and we've seen

that at coinbase and i do expect that

for metaport and then a firm

unfortunately

you know if if the odds of a recession

go up the last thing you want is is is

to be

here now i love a firm don't get me

wrong i love a firm but i said that

originally when i first bought the

company i'm like this is great as long

as we're in a bull market and people

keep borrowing crap and spending but uh

you know they hold 41 of the debt that

they issue

you know that's those are bags man

people stop paying those those are bags

anyway uh yeah hopefully we find a

bottom soon but we certainly haven't

found them yet but i'm watching every

every single day

all right my friends thank you so much

for watching this please check out titan

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on building your wealth thank you very

much and we'll see you next time in the

next video

goodbye