Tesla Q4 Delivery Numbers | HOLY CRAP

oh my gosh tesla just absolutely

destroyed expectations for vehicle

deliveries folks people were expecting

266 000 deliveries for the end of

2021 that is the fourth quarter of 2021

wall street consensus estimates were

that tesla would deliver

266 000 vehicles

optimistic folks in social media were

saying tesla would deliver somewhere

between 275 to 290 000 vehicles folks

nobody was expecting what we got and

this is really good news it's gonna be

really good news for tesla going forward

and probably might be going back maybe

not probably but we may be going back to

the tesla price action that we saw in

the stock after the hurts deal folks

this this is really exciting take a look

at this folks take a look at this tesla

q4 2021 vehicle production and

deliveries in the fourth quarter we

achieve production of more than ah who

cares the more than part just read it

look at this

three hundred and eight thousand six

hundred vehicles that is a substantial

beat that is a beat of over 16

of the wall street consensus estimate on

deliveries the fourth quarter of the

year is of course one of the quarters

everyone tries to rush to either spend

money for tax savings or energy credits

or whatever so fourth quarter is always

expected to be the uh the most prominent

quarter without a doubt uh total

deliveries here for 2021 came in at 930

6172

that is that is pretty incredible that

includes some slight up revisions and

because if you add up the prior press

releases you actually only get to about

935

1950 so that's about an extra 220 in

there and that's because they'll make

revisions when when they actually do the

final accounting of okay so these people

did get their deliveries on time or not

uh and so sometimes you do get those

revisions after the fact a few hundred

here or there that's pretty common so

936 172 for the year pretty incredible a

little shy of 1 million there were some

initial very very optimistic

expectations that we would hit a million

in 2021

back in 2022 however thanks to supply

chain shortages it's not a surprise now

we'll look at my spreadsheet in just a

moment but i want to just quickly show

some ta that i was doing here so first

of all we've had this particular trend

line up for tesla uh ever since uh we've

been under the pressure of elon musk

selling we've been seeing lower highs

and lower lows we've been stuck in this

channel here now personally i believe

that it's it's entirely possible though

this year is not guaranteed that because

of this news we could end up having a

breakout on monday we've got no selling

pressure we've got the end of tax loss

harvesting we've got the beginning of a

new year here so we're really hoping for

a breakout here we ended up closing at

10 56 on monday and if we get a breakout

it wouldn't surprise me to see a run

as high as our prior high which was 12

43 this would be the next natural

resistance level so we'll see if we can

get this kind of breakout but with this

downtrend it wouldn't be a surprise to

get a breakout with news like this

because this is an absolute explosion of

a beat now jumping over to my

spreadsheet here a lot of folks in the

tesla community say kevin you are way

too conservative in your estimates and

it's fair i mean look i don't provide

revenue for energy insurance semis or

robo taxis i just say look if you guys

can produce 4.8 million vehicles by 2025

which means 900 000 and 2021 get me to

1.7 bill in 2022 how would that

potentially be possible well folks

remember what's going to happen at 22

we're going to get austin and berlin now

those are going to be new factories

they're going to be capable of up to 1

million units per year but not

immediately right so even if we got 400

000 out of each of these but then we

continued to maximize our production at

both shanghai and fremont let's say we

were able to attribute uh not just the

450 000

each that we had now but maybe we get to

something like

uh can we get to 650 per one of these if

we get to 650 per one of these each

that's 650 650 200 and 200 then we we

would be at uh 1.3 plus 4 we'd be at

that 1.7 right so we would need

again 650 000 vehicles out of each of

fremont and shanghai plus 200 000 each

for austin and berlin to hit that 1 7

and 20 22 might be optimistic but if we

can then really get to full ramping get

to about 800 and 800 each in shanghai

and fremont maybe even start approaching

uh somewhere around a mill or we get to

that full capacity or maybe not quite

full capacity since austin and berlin

will eventually get to a million a piece

each but get get substantially further

along and get to let's say 500k a piece

uh whoops lost connection there for a

second we get to 500k a piece in berlin

and uh austin will be at a million for

those combined plus another 1 6 will get

us to about 2.6 and 2023

hey if we end up adding another giga or

we end up ramping a little faster than

than what i just quoted here we could

easily hit some of these targets

especially since i only showed a growth

of about 700k vehicles in 2024 to get to

this 2025 we're not only going to have

to be at max capacity for uh the four

gigafactories that we're going to have

which would be austin shanghai fremont

and berlin we're probably going to have

to add another unit because these will

all be maxed at about 1 mil each so

we're going to need another giga here

now where's that giga going to be is it

going to be giga india is it going to be

something else in the united states we

don't exactly know but i think this is a

pretty conservative ramp

uh or a pretty realistic ramp i should

say maybe not necessarily conservative

so realistic ramp here as long as we get

that fifth giga in by 2025. uh over here

i do think i'm conservative but i'm

going to maintain that conservatism i'm

only using 40k and rev per vehicle by

2025. again nothing for energy insurance

semis robo taxis i do personally believe

that 30 profit margin is or gross margin

not profit margin gross profit margin

you could say is realistic for tesla and

elon has proven this to us and expect

this quarter to be no different and we

continue to see these margins increase

with the fanaticalness of elon musk

which is the best part is no part

right absolutely incredible uh and we've

seen this i'm gonna be posting a review

of my tesla model s plaid and i'll show

you some places where elon musk is uh

cutting a little bit and i'm noticing it

and i know it's just going straight to

that bottom line which as a shareholder

you know what i'm all right with it so

the price today is uh 10 53 i don't

expect it to open at 10 53 on

monday but let's say we go with a

forward of 100 because we're way higher

right now in terms of a forward p but we

go with a a 100 p e ratio once we're in

2025 because we still expect to have

substantial growth ahead that means

we're gonna go down from the crazy high

pes where we are now two three four

hundred pes we're gonna bring that way

down to about a hundred and by twenty

thirty we'll probably be down to a

thirty forty fifty p e somewhere around

there right so we're gonna have that

diminishing uh you know usage of uh the

price to earnings ratio but with a 100

conservative on the revenues realistic

on margins and deliveries

i do think tesla has a future value of

about 2 000

by 2025. if you did invest at uh 1100

let's say that should work out to

approximately a 15.94

compounded annual rate of return every

single year for the next four

years

it's almost a double and again i do

believe i'm being somewhat conservative

with this compare this to the potential

for a breakout here on tesla and let me

just say i'm very very excited about

tesla this is this is amazing this is

the best we could have asked for elon's

done selling the deliveries just

absolutely smashed the only thing that

could really hurt us now would be some

uh form of uh pretty negative

miss on margins and that would be the

big issue for earnings now that we have

deliveries the only thing that could go

wrong here would be margin and uh who

knows you never know you've got a recall

you've got various different things uh

regarding supply chain shortages that

could always hurt tesla when it comes to

actual earnings but going forward this

is clearly a company that you cannot not

uh be a part of this is amazing

congratulations to the tesla community

congratulations to elon musk and thank

you to everybody who watches and

supports these videos thank you so much

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the next one thanks bye