What Elon Musk JUST Said about Tesla, Twitter, and SpaceX

well Elon Musk just had a surprise

discussion with Morgan Stanley on

everything from Twitter to Tesla to

SpaceX and starlink let's go through and

cover some of the latest that Elon just

told us and what did he tell us about

that next Generation vehicle and what

else did he have to say about Twitter's

profitability well first he started out

his

um discussion with Morgan Stanley

analyst talking about how the goal is to

find the truth that was one of the

reasons Elon Musk wanted to buy Twitter

is to make sure that the truth can be

spread as much as possible now that

doesn't mean there's not going to be a

lot of BS but you want the truth with

the lowest level of error rate and

that's why they're expanding that

Community notes feature on Twitter which

one of the things that I noticed that I

thought was really neat was there were a

few ads that were running on Twitter and

they would say things like uh why borrow

from a bank when you could borrow yours

from yourself by using a home equity

line of credit and I'm like home equity

line of credit is from like a credit

union usually or a bank and so I saw

that ad and then after that which this

is an Advertiser paying money to sustain

Twitter's viability right the community

notes actually put a comment underneath

that ad saying ah this is not exactly

accurate you're not borrowing from

yourself you're borrowing from a bank

using the equity in your home and I'm

like yeah like that's awesome like we

should have more like more Community

notes like that to prevent uh the spread

of just straight up false information

right we're not trying to play the

controlling the left or the right or the

narrative it's just like if stuff is

totally wrong like it'd be nice to add

some context or Clarity right whether

it's sarcasm or it's meant to be

deceiving or otherwise right Community

notes have been useful for that so I

think that's pretty interesting I also

think it's interesting that Elon Musk

starts by talking about over at Twitter

what's uh neat is you actually tend to

get news much faster than you might

through mainstream media sources like

the TV or new newspapers for example

there were 50 000 tweets about chat GPT

in the chat GPT announcement and how

incredible it was before the mainstream

media started picking up on it also Elon

Musk talks about how newspapers and

mainstream media coverage are generally

negative you rarely find positive news

now In fairness when you go on Twitter

most of the viral stuff seems to also be

very negative so I don't know if that's

so much of a mainstream media problem as

it is just a human condition where we're

more drawn into negative news than we

are too positive news even if like sort

of the the intro is negative and then

there's actually like okay this is what

looks negative but then here's why it

seems negative here's the context here's

the information why maybe it's not

necessarily as bad as it seems right

it's almost like the way to educate

these days is attacking head-on what is

negative news and then sort of breaking

it down into digestible information that

we can actually glean education from but

it does seem like negativity does spread

but anyway Elon Musk has this idea that

there's much less negativity on Twitter

whatever man personally I think

everybody goes onto Twitter to sh9t post

but whatever that's my take Elon does

say that the average time people spend

on Twitter is 30 minutes that works out

based on their monetizable user base

that works out to about 138 million

hours per day now Elon Musk repeatedly

said that the people who are on Twitter

and his opinion are uh maybe the smarter

bunch of people who actually try to get

educated or whatever

I'm okay I mean sure you know I'm not I

don't want to diss some people on

Twitter I personally think you get a lot

more perspective on YouTube because you

can actually go deeper into a

conversation and the thread

conversations on Twitter still suck you

like for example just the other day Newt

Gingrich is complaining about uh uh

Governor DeSantis and his legislature

potentially introducing a bill that

would require the registration of any

kind of blogger who's talking about

Executives in the State uh or the

governor right and and then there's this

whole fight going on about oh this is

censorship or no this is good or that

and like the whole bill was missing from

the context the bill is like you have to

get paid but then we want Clarity on

what is that getting paid mean right and

those are the conversations that are

usually absent from those shorter

Snippets so what I personally like to do

is if I see something trending on

Twitter I try to get more information on

it but but usually off Twitter it's kind

of interesting but anyway uh Elon Musk

says that they currently make about five

to six cents per hour of that time I did

some really quick napkin math and that

works out to about 6.9 million dollars a

day

207 million dollars per month or if you

multiply that by 12 just about 2.5

billion dollars of income at Twitter now

what's interesting is Elon Musk did end

up talking about some numbers he

mentioned that uh previously maybe they

had about 4.5 billion dollars of Revenue

and 4.5 billion dollars of costs but now

they've added on about 1.5 billion

dollars of debt and a massive decline in

ads so you've had major issues for the

sustainability of Twitter this is why

you said Twitter is trending towards

bankruptcy right because after all if

you take 4.5 and you take off somewhere

around two and a half or like 40 to 50

percent what do you end up with ah about

two and a half billion dollars which is

roughly where that five or six cent per

monetizable hour is right now now Elon

Musk thinks that they can actually uh

potentially double this triple this 5x

this number they think they could get to

15 to 25 cents of uh uh per hour of

monetization of somebody's Time by

serving up relevant ads he thinks it's

very frustrating right now that most

people who use Twitter don't actually

buy anything on Twitter because the ads

just aren't relevant whereas in the

future he envisions the opportunity to

use Twitter for oh uh here do you want

faster internet right now yes or no

that's cheaper than what you're

currently only paying and you click yes

and you have internet that's sort of

like his his thesis of how simple it

should be to be able to check out and

buy things on Twitter uh in the future

right now he says only about 20 of ads

that are delivered on Twitter are really

deemed to be relevant based on the

algorithm he also complains a lot about

the code base he talks about a fractal

Rube Goldberg machine so room Goldberg

machine is basically like a Contraption

you kind of want to think about a

cartoon Contraption like imagine you're

you you want to drink water and then you

have a helmet on and then you have like

three hoses that go into multiple

different jugs and then another hose

that comes up to you with a pump where

you have to push the pump with your foot

or something crazy just to be able to

drink water right so in other words like

the end result is the same it's like you

are thirsty so pick up bottle drink

water right but no you have this entire

contraption that makes something very

simple overly complicated right so when

you over complicate a simple task it's

very easy for it to break and so a

fractal version of this is uh so when

you think of fractal kind of think of a

cloud like how a cloud repeats itself it

just goes on and on and on or another

way to think about it is like a

kaleidoscope where you look in the

kaleidoscope and it's like man

everywhere you look it looks like you

just have a repeating pattern of the

same like Goldberg machine basically

basically and so this idea is at Twitter

that every time Elon Musk looks at

something or the team looks at something

from a code base they're like why is

this so complicated every time we change

one tiny thing we break 27 different

things this is ridiculous Elon Musk on

Twitter yesterday talked about how

eventually they might have to just

rewrite the entire code base because

it's so stupid basically the way it's

been set up right now basically you give

an example where hey look we had a bug

where people who were suspended from

being able to join certain people's

Twitter spaces could still end up

joining those spaces so we temporarily

disabled people's ability to join those

Twitter spaces but by disabling people

from being able to join spaces which is

where you have voice chat anybody who

has used using an Android phone was no

longer able to like tweets but you could

on iOS so it's kind of like this is

stupid so anyway he talks a little bit

more about the burn rate over at Twitter

he thinks the burn right now is down to

about 1.5 billion dollars they've cut a

lot of money on not only employee costs

Cloud costs down 40 employees down to 2

000 from 8 000 three data centers down

to two data centers they uh they think

they're potentially at a place where

they could be uh ebitda profitable now

but Elon Musk says well we got to get

the earnings up because our depreciation

is really high we would love to be able

to write like pay taxes because that

would mean we're actually making money

but we got to get the earnings up uh and

so Elon Musk thinks that maybe total

income minus expenditures could be

roughly equal maybe slightly positive in

the second quarter of this year and

hopefully profitable thereafter at the

end of last year they sat at 253

monetizable daily active users and Elon

Musk then makes this big sort of slam

piece uh statement where he says what

you read on Twitter is the real thing

what you read in the newspaper is not

really doesn't like the mainstream media

anyway there are social networks with

more users he says but nobody's as smart

as the users on Twitter it's a nice

compliment to the people on Twitter he

talks about his app x.com how

potentially in the future it could

actually end up becoming one of the

biggest financial institutions in the

world by making it very easy to send

money from one account to another earn

interest go into debt basically provide

people with the ultimate convenience it

sounds to me kind of like a a merge of

maybe like Zell and PayPal and banking

all in one and crypto and blockchain

like all in one together like the best

of everything together

makes sense uh probably far down the

road he says it took about 20 years to

build the Tesla management team that

it'll take a few years to build the

Twitter management team but it'll come

he talks about then Tesla and

sustainability big fan of solar and wind

and batteries not the biggest fan so

much of geothermal apparently or or the

other potential methods for um for

energy he believes that the next

generation of producing Vehicles the Gen

3 platform he actually gives us more

detail here in the very little bit of

time that he spent talking about Tesla's

next-gen uh a platform in my opinion he

gives us more detail here than he does

or did in investor day he just says look

the next gen platform is going to be for

producing a smaller car that it's going

that is going to be almost entirely

autonomous okay great so now we know

that Gen 3 is not to just make a cheaper

model 3. it's actually a totally

different car that is smaller and is

expected to be almost entirely in

autonomous mode so maybe optional

steering wheel but anyway that requires

be you know basically mastering FSD so

really interesting he then goes into

this idea about how you know people are

looking at Tesla totally the wrong way

that the total addressable Market is not

selling 20 million Vehicles it's really

that what we should be doing is thinking

about how Tesla is a software company

and once we Master autonomy you really

have a massively larger uh software

margins that basically we can get

software margins in Hardware where like

here's a car uh and maybe we do the car

for a break even but then we have like a

hundred percent software margin on on

being able to provide FSD or like 99

right it's kind of like the hardware

business just operates as a break even

potentially a Tesla and they just make a

crap load of money on the software it's

a brilliant idea in some regards it's

somewhat similar well I mean I'm not

trying to compare myself to Elon Musk

but we're we're trying we're trying to

accomplish exactly the same thing at my

real estate startup where basically

we're able to use one stream of income

to cover all of our operating expenses

and then just milk that cash flow off

something else now more details on that

later but but that's a phenomenal uh

vision and a phenomenal game plan uh it

so Elon goes on to say that look the Tam

the total addressable Market is huge

it's all humans because really you could

5 to 10x the value of a car in that cars

that you're usually sitting around not

being used for but maybe 10 to 12 hours

on average per week could in the future

be used somewhere between 50 to maybe

100 hours his phrase was 50 to 60 so

closer to five to six x so that was neat

and it makes a lot of sense I mean I

kind of think about it from the point of

view of if you sell a 25 000 vehicle if

you could reduce the cost of goods sold

by 50 fantastic you could still have a

25 to 30 margin that's great but if you

needed to go to zero margin and only

make money off FSD you could literally

get back to a 25 margin solely with FSD

sales and no Hardware margin like the

margin of safety at Tesla is so freaking

phenomenal it's one of the reasons it's

my largest holding uh you know in not

only personally but also in in you know

Financial products out of management but

uh all that aside uh so then Elon Musk

jumps into starlink talks about how they

have basically more than half of all of

the satellites in orbit right now you

got to get to low earth uh low orbit

levels with satellites to make sure you

can provide low latency internet and he

gives some technical comparisons about

light traveling in a vacuum uh versus

through fiber optic cable and he

believes that light uh well

scientifically light travels faster uh

in a vacuum than it does through fiber

and he believes he can accomplish a lot

of those similar benefits by sending

data through low Earth satellites which

I'm personally not a scientist I don't

know maybe but you could say that the

the uh you know what's between satellite

one and satellite 2 is in a vacuum but

I'm not really sure how that data from

the satellite to the user is considered

to be in a vacuum since you're going

through the Earth's atmosphere but maybe

that's not the point maybe the point is

just saying like hey like we use fiber

optic cable to go from continent to

continent why use that cable when we

could use something that's maybe 40

percent and faster Like Satellites I

think that's probably more the direction

he's using maybe somebody can fact check

me in the comments of that but anyway uh

so then he talks a little bit about the

Starship how they hope to launch it uh

next uh month they think there's a 50

chance of reaching orbit and the only

guarantee Elon Musk gives is that it

will be extremely extremely entertaining

so anyway uh personally I thought this

was more interesting than investor day

yes thank you so much for asking that

question Darby mostly because like all

of the the details are fantastic of

investor day like I did like the

takeaways about the robots and basically

the the parallel manufacturing I thought

some of those details were phenomenal

some of the additional details on cost

structure reduction I mean look

absolutely phenomenal but I think that

was not an investor Day presentation

that was more of an engineering

presentation if if that was just labeled

engineering presentation you know what

fine perfect fantastic an investor day

style presentation would be more like

look our goal is next vehicle 50 the

cost it's uh it's gonna be a smaller

vehicle mostly autonomous total

addressable Market infinitely greater

than what people are expecting right

like the things he said today gave much

more color to the Future cash flow

potential of Tesla than uh than than the

investor they did the investor and

that's because we already went into

investor day expecting that the next gen

platform was going to have a 50 cost

reduction it was just sort of like

here's how right as opposed to more of

sort of a forecast uh anywho uh yeah

maybe it was an opportunity for Tesla to

show off the team I personally think

they could have coordinated that a

little bit better right so that's been

sort of my argument is that like maybe

everybody could have done a dry run of

the presentation because some people

didn't sound like super prepared for it

kind of didn't seem like Elon Musk

really was fully aware of what everybody

was going to talk about it's kind of

like ah here I am okay let's throw this

together which fine it ended up working

out just fine anyway and uh look

obviously still still a big fan of Tesla

but do I have my criticisms of course uh

and if somebody is you know doesn't want

to hear criticism then and balanced

opinion then probably you don't want to

listen to my channel anyway because

that's always my goal is to try to sort

of balance things out but I mean when

you compare Tesla to the competition I

mean who else is doing what Tesla's

doing and I think that's the big

question it's certainly not Ford or GM

they're not even close to profitable yet

it's certainly not uh uh you know Neo or

byd I mean these these companies are

focusing on either using Nvidia software

uh over at Neo or you're looking at

adaptive cruise control over at byd

there is no priority on autonomy right

now so people keep comparing Tesla to

other companies but really what you

should be doing is comparing autonomous

driving vehicle platforms it may be

comparing Tesla to waymo but now waymo

is cutting off P or is laying people off

from its staff that's kind of like why

you know so I I don't know and I know

people say oh but Elon Musk has had

layoffs too yeah but not necessarily in

the FSD team the auto labelers after

they wanted to unionize they had a

little bit of a off though I think 26 of

them got fired but anyway I find it very

interesting so uh those are just some

thoughts uh some things to think about I

like that Tesla investor they showed off

all the team yeah of course I mean I

think that's also a big deal right it's

kind of like hey here's the management

team that is uh that's definitely a big

deal because you you want some

confidence that Tesla can also operate

even without Elon Musk that does take

sometimes years to a decade for a

company to actually build Elon Musk one

as far as saying it takes 20 years but

uh yeah take it from there anyway thanks

so much for watching we'll see you next

one bye