weird

hey everyone me kevin here it's monday

august 9th and we've got some market

changes to talk about specifically we're

going to talk about

changes in inflation we're going to talk

about coven we're going to talk about

evs where we'll talk about

crypto and some other things that are

running right now like crazy like

moderna i'm going to give you my

opinions on that and some other stocks

and then i'll also finish by talking

about the federal reserve and some

changes that came out

this morning first i want to start with

this this weekend i was in las vegas if

you haven't seen my stories yet on

instagram

they're awesome they're really cool

check them out but anyway i was

exploring there were a lot of things i

was doing this week in vegas

but anyway one of the things i was doing

was i was talking to a lot of the

vendors at different stores

whether it was prada hugo boss the rolex

store

other stores any store i could go into i

went in

and i talked to folks to try to find out

what

kovit has been like for them essentially

trying to do market research

and kind of see how these supply chain

shortages are really affecting them

first of all there was not a single

store that said they didn't have supply

chain shortages

everyone's having the same problem

stores that usually have

products in stock that they could sell

to anyone

aren't having those items in stock

anymore normal

sizes are selling out quicker and these

companies are waiting longer to get

sizes for jackets or clothing or

whatever

and specifically in prada and i made an

instagram and a tick talk about this so

follow me there if you haven't yet

already

but prada talked specifically about

how their favorite customers lately have

been people on unemployment

and people getting stimulus checks in

the past and obviously because the

stimulus checks came a few months back

in fact so much so that they

specifically priced bags

around what the stimulus checks were

coming out for so like when the 1400

check came there were 13.99 priced bags

or maybe even purposefully like slightly

higher price bags like

14.99 or 15.99 bags to try to get people

to take their savings and throw it on as

well or maybe a combination of stimulus

checking unemployment

but it's really interesting because some

of the workers were saying hey this is

the first time they've really been able

to afford these products

and now folks are able to spend money on

these products

which they previously didn't have access

to so they were able to use essentially

this helicopter money to help prop up

our economy

to to purchase these things but this is

now also exacerbating supply chain

issues

and surprise surprise inflation which is

oftentimes a concern

of helicopter money this is just more

sort of a realistic example of how this

could happen

again other stores seeing the same

problem with these supply chain

shortages and i know this is anecdotal

this isn't like

research right i mean it's not like data

i should say it's just anecdotal and

it's important for us to know that

i i also know that some folks were

commenting saying hey kevin we know you

went into rolex

it's common for them not to have men's

watches that's fine

i get that i just want to clarify folks

in the actual rolex store the people

working there

were saying yeah covet has delayed our

shipments that we would normally be

getting

even longer than usual so our sales

have have suffered because of that so

their normal sales cycle has suffered

because of

essentially covet supply chain

disruptions which is crazy but now

it's no surprise that consumer inflation

expectations

where we just had new numbers come out

for just this morning

the july expectations came out

higher than expected we have a

three-year

outlook for inflation now up to 3.7

by consumers this means that consumers

think in three years

inflation's still going to be sitting at

3.7 which is crazy

that's like that's like way more than

than i would have expected consumers to

think

but anyway that figure got revised up

year over year inflation figures are

currently sitting at 4.8

for what consumers expect and that

number held steady

but the three year horizon expectation

actually went

up now we do know that we have consumer

price index numbers coming up for july

this week we've also got producer price

inflation figures coming out or index

figures coming out this week so we'll

see how those numbers look

we're expecting them to be uh not so

great

obviously uh so inflation's definitely

going to be something on the forefront

and if we combine this with what the

federal reserve is doing

it it's possible we're going to have a

lot longer

transitory inflation than we previously

thought so we want to pay attention to

this

and i know half of you are like well duh

we thought it out all along well you

know

you never know at some point it's

obvious like this will not last forever

it's just a matter of trying to figure

out how long are these pricing changes

going to last

uh and remember this is what's very

important to know as well

because sometimes folks will say well

kevin what you think they're just going

to raise the prices and then they're

going to lower them again

no no that's not actually how inflation

works and it's very important to

remember this remember

if something's worth a hundred dollars

and then it goes up to 110

that's 10 inflation right if next year

it stays the same

then you had zero percent inflation but

you're still at that higher price right

so remember inflation is always a

measure of the

increase and that rate of increase

continuing essentially

now covet doesn't help and the delta

variant doesn't help for example now

we've got reports that 43

of florida's icu beds are now covet

occupied

cases obviously peaked this weekend

we're going to see this trend continue

now because of the spike in covet cases

it's no surprise that recovery stocks

are selling off today

but what is a surprise to me is that

tech stocks are actually not selling

down

most tech stocks that i'm following

whether it's tesla

neo and i know some of these are evs but

end phase piton

square or some of the higher valued ones

you've even got snapchat whatever

a lot of these stocks are actually doing

decently today

i was potentially expecting that we

would see a sell down on recovery

but then maybe also some softness and

tech because tech might not be that

flight to safety if we're going into a

delta variant era and an inflationary

era right

unless people are parking their money in

tech temporarily while they try to

figure out where the heck to go

which i still think is rcc actual real

estate ownership

crypto and cash cash for the opportunity

to go buy on those recovery stocks

when we finally get closer to bottoms

which i don't think we are anywhere near

peak delta variant fears yet or fud yet

right fear uncertainty and doubt yeah

uh so cash for those opportunities

crypto and actual real estate

ownership now i'm still holding on to a

lot of tech so don't get me wrong i'm

enjoying the rally

but i think the market is just confused

right now in terms of where to flee for

safety

the fact that roblox wayfair palantir

lemonade c3ai

the arcimoto these guys are all up it's

kind of a bizarre market it's to me it's

a big signal the market's trying to

still figure out

where do we go where do we go where do

we go in fact one of the easiest places

that i'm

in my opinion identifying that the

market's kind of confused about where to

go is

people are plowing into moderna in fact

moderna in my opinion

look great company company i've invested

in i bought their stock at 130.

never bought them again the thing's at

like 488 right now

it's going literally to the moon it's up

17.6

here i personally think the market is so

confused about what to

do because of these delta fears that

the most obvious answer is literally

right now at least where the market is

heading to

and that's potentially moderna and

crypto i believe that as well rcc right

real estate cash

crypto but also moderna now i think

moderna

this is a little momentum heavy i don't

know if the company is really worth this

if i look at earnings per share you have

declining earnings per share estimates

going forward for the next five years

you've got a 29 earnings per share

estimated for 2021 which right now it's

at what 488

so 488 divided by 29 that means it's

really only trading for 16.8 times

earnings right now pfizer's trading for

something like 10 times earnings in 2021

which is not that bad of a valuation

but the problem is the earnings

expectations for moderna plummet over

the next five years

in fact in 2022 they're expected to go

to 24 eps

8 in 2023 and 4.8 in 2024.

so if you go for 488 divided by 483

now all of a sudden it's trading for 101

times 2024 earnings

so in my opinion it doesn't make logical

sense for investors to be plowing into

moderna

but quite frankly i think one of the

reasons they're plowing into it is a

because it's gone up and people like

investing in things that have gone up

which is

inherently momentum definition based

in other words it's probably likely to

come down but also

because the the the fundamentals don't

support

a long forward valuation i think people

are like okay yeah

this sounds good for right now let's

park our money here for maybe the next

few months while we figure this out and

figure out what other opportunities to

move to

so i'm kind of feeling like a shuffling

like that and happening in the market

right now and the market's just confused

about

where to go and that's why i do think we

saw that crypto spike as well this

morning

again rcc real estate ownership like

physical ownership

crypto cash those are the things i'm

paying attention to right now personally

you know i'm already heavy on real

estate i'm i'm otherwise just

kind of plowing into cash unless i see

crypto dips and i'm still not seeing

massive opportunities

uh in in stocks otherwise now i will be

transparent here i'm keeping my eye on

things like

uh airbnb c3ai i want to keep my eye on

some of these stocks

i've got other stocks i'm keeping my

eyes on as well so i'm interested in

this

chargers also jumped today chargers

partially jumped because 28 house

democrats wrote a letter saying they

want 85 billion dollars for charging

infrastructure

they're getting like 7.5 so i think this

is just like

fugazi magic like it's not going to

happen like whatever

but hey you know what whatever we also

have the federal reserve that gave some

updates this morning

some of them i thought were really

interesting particularly kaplan had this

really cool reference

he said look if we taper faster than

expected

then that's kind of like us taking the

foot off the gas it means we don't have

to hit the brakes

as soon by raising interest rates

because we can kind of just like

roll out okay it's an interesting theory

but practically what that means is the

taper might come faster and sooner

and remember what jerome powell said

jerome powell said if we ever get ready

to taper

we're gonna make it crystal clear to you

well last week and this week

like every fed board member and

president has been getting out in front

of the media going

we're making progress we're making

progress in fact just this morning fed

barkin said

quote we have made substantial further

progress high level

high levels of spending in the economy

have existed for some time

demand has not yet been hurt by delta

labor demand is still very high

but we still think inflation is mostly

temporary but i think their definition

of temporary keeps getting longer

which i think is also worth noting but

anyway bostic this morning also said

we're on the road to substantial further

progress uh we had our jobs data coming

very well

we expect to increase rates in late 2022

which the market's already thinking

we're going to raise rates sooner than

that

you had um yeah okay well these are the

three board members oh this was a good

one

bostick also said he he realizes the

10-year treasury has been pretty

volatile

but he thinks it's going to pop back up

to the higher rates that we've had

previously

sitting at around 1.32 right now he

thinks we're going to go back to that

1.5

to 1.7 level pretty soon which generally

isn't that good for tag

so this is why in my rcc you don't have

a lot of tag

i'm still trying to like reduce my

exposure to tech

and certainly at least get rid of my

call options so i've worked to do on

that i've been selling calls a lot

but still waiting for dip opportunities

on on other things which of course if i

ever

uh make a buy or sell transaction you

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money group

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join now there's also talk about this

crypto amendment finally getting the

green light

which would require brokers to report to

the irs uh

what our crypto gains or losses are to

make sure we pay taxes on those

this crypto amendment does make sure

that miners are excluded from that

definition

and and some others as well a little bit

unclear where

we're going to be standing on staking

but this is actually a good thing for

crypto

remember what the chairperson of the sec

said that hey

the more clarity we get with rules the

quicker we can actually go mainstream

with things like crypto right

and this is really what's happening here

so these are some updates on what i'm

feeling in the market what i'm seeing in

the market

hopefully this helps you if you

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folks we'll see in the next video thanks

so much

you