The Stock Market is SCREWED | Sold.

hey lauren you want to be in my video

you're in it okay uh hey everyone meet

kevin here so obviously we've uh well

we're back to sort of disaster mode

especially since it sort of feels like

netflix might be that harbinger again of

uh disaster remember q1 netflix started

earnings off and everything was a

disaster looking towards q4 uh earnings

which reporting q1 and uh it was total

crap show now i have to say i'm glad i

never invested in netflix but i also my

heart goes out to the people who are now

suffering about a 38 drop on the day

from netflix and so a lot of folks are

wondering kevin is now the time to buy

the dip on netflix what does this mean

for the broader market what did procter

and gamble say today what are my

expectations for tesla am i going to

live stream tesla today uh you know

why uh

like then i get questions people like

kevin why isn't your house fancier it's

like well because i spend all my money

on stocks

but anyway so uh let's let's just go

through some of the madness going on

today mortgage interest rates also hit

five percent which has some implications

for some stocks actually sold a company

that i really really love

talk about that here so let's just get

into all this uh keep in mind we just

spent about 50 minutes together with

course members answering a lot of

questions and and brainstorming together

strategizing it's really fun so if you

all love it or

say something in the comments if you're

not part of it yet check out that coupon

code link down below it expires today

it's the tesla or cyber kevin coupon

code yeah from uh gigarodio which i'm

still wearing my bracelet from but

anyway so let's get into this so netflix

they were expecting two and a half

million subscribers

and uh

such a disaster they were expecting to

lose one million from uh from russia and

they were still expecting two and a half

million of growth they ended up only

losing seven hundred thousand accounts

from russia only seven hundred thousand

uh but uh the fact that overall they

reported a loss of 200 000 accounts a

company that's a growth company that's

contracting makes a lot of sense in

terms of why the company's now dropping

like 38 on the day now that doesn't mean

we can't get a nice bounce off of this

but look when a growth company becomes a

not growth company it's a terrible

terrible thing even if you take out the

russia loss or you add that back in so

to speak that would be a gain of 500 000

accounts which is really just terrible

faltering growth the company is blaming

the noise of covid and the pull forward

of demand and account sharing uh and

also competition which all of those

things are terrible for for really the

probably the next year or so at least

uh is this you know bill ackman was one

of the people who bought january's dip

on netflix and he probably just lost

four to five hundred million dollars

today on that bet which is just insane

uh netflix actually jumped quite a bit

after he announced that he was buying

the dip and uh oops

anyway uh so you know i wanted to talk a

little bit about what two things here

one the account sharing thing which i

actually think is very very bad uh what

netflix is trying to do and then number

two i want to talk about what i buy them

so

netflix is doing this thing where

they're like oh let's uh let's try to

crack down on account sharing and let's

advertise more which i love hearing

first of all advertise more because

i'm a big fan of investing in companies

like trade desk and trade desk is one of

the few companies that's green today

i just bought a lot more of trade desk

right about 60 dollars when it fell just

a couple days ago it's like 70 bucks

right now so i'm really happy about that

that doesn't mean i'm always a winner uh

i think who is it rana shout out to rana

in the course member live stream this

morning says they've been

tracking all of our trades and we're at

89 profitability which honestly in this

market i'll take

so

okay this this the advertising thing

makes sense maybe trying to get some

more ads in on netflix i think that'll

be great for advertisers probably not so

great for netflix though because i think

they're going to piss off their users

in addition to pissing off their users i

want you to consider this what happens

when people like account share like

let's say i

share my netflix login with ross right i

in my opinion if i share my netflix

account login with ross gerber i believe

i become a more sticky member for

netflix i'm less likely to cancel

because i have now given ross something

of value and if all of a sudden netflix

is like well now we're going to charge

you for two accounts because you're

sharing with ross we see the different

ips like we're on to you it's like okay

uh then i might get to that point where

it's like wait a minute i'm not really

watching netflix anymore anyway hey yo

ross are you watching netflix ah no not

really i don't have time for it anymore

let's just cancel it so in my opinion

they're they're trying their attempt at

trying to

monetize all the account sharing is

actually just an opportunity for people

to say

yeah i don't really need netflix right

now anyway it is it's almost like a

catalyst for people pausing their

accounts or canceling their accounts and

it's like i'll sign up again in the

future uh if if i want to

uh so i think that's actually a really

bad thing trying to monetize the

customer's customer base a lot more

i personally do not believe this is a

sign of demand destruction i think this

is a sign of just

netflix destruction it's a growth

company that's no longer a growth

company and so netflix right now has an

eps of 11 which at current the current

prices puts them about at a p e ratio of

about

20 20 pe for 2022 which seems really

good for a growth company but they're

only projecting to grow revenues at 10

per year for the next five years and i

honestly think those anal the

expectations those 10 growth

expectations

are going to fall after a report like

this and so that means you're paying a

peg ratio of about two which is a little

expensive for the growth that you're

getting and that growth is is on a

downtrend

not an uptrend that's bad

so so for me

even though i think it would be

reasonable to to assume hey you know buy

the dip yolo will call option at close

at the closing sell-off and and then you

know fingers crossed on on a big tende

it's not a company for me

so it's not what i've been interested in

and

you know maybe if it's peg ratio got

down to like one

uh but uh i i think even if it's peg

ratio were at one i still think their

growth estimates are going to decline

and they're realistically probably like

a peg of three or four right now it's

not great

so

uh for me netflix is a no but that's for

me now let's touch on procter and gamble

because this was interesting because

that question is coming up about

consumer demand destruction and the

suits are sort of debating about this on

wall street and one of the things that's

actually helping give us a little bit

more color is procter gamble

just like the banks last week told us

that we expect incomes to actually rise

this year we expect bank balances to

rise this year and we expect spending to

continue to rise this year not just

because things are more expensive but

because people are willing to pay more

well that brings us to procter and

gamble so procter gamble is that company

that you probably actually have no idea

what procter gamble makes but when i

mentioned the brands that procter gamble

owns

you'll recognize probably all of them

let's try

tide

cascade febreze gain pampers

loves the cheap version of pampers

bounty charmaine

uh tampax

gillette braun

anyway i'm sure you've recognized

probably nine out of ten of those

so uh they just increased uh their

buybacks uh great dividends i'm not so

worried about the exact details of the

company i want to know what they're

telling me about for other stocks right

and to me they're reiterating why

we've been talking on this channel for

the last four months about this

transition away from consumer

discretionaries and into consumer

staples now i'm not a big fan of buying

consumer staples myself so for me i've

been more of a purchaser of tesla but

one of the things that i did do over the

last few months is i completely sold out

of a firm i completely sold out of etsy

i completely sold out of um

basically any kind of consumer

discretionary stock and i'll even tell

you another one that i sold out of

through towards the end of the video and

i've been increasing my bets on

advertising

and tesla uh trade desks my advertising

play right and the reason i'm i'm

betting on those rather than going into

the staples or the commodities is

because i think these are a temporary

safe haven and the staples and

commodities will rotate back down and

they're creating buying opportunities in

other companies that do actually have

serious growth trade tesla

uh and i'll talk about end phase in a

bit but anyway

so

it's important to remember before i talk

to you about what was in the earnings

call that if consumers have 100 to spend

you you get less product

today than you would have if you could

buy and i'm just gonna make this up 20

razors with a hundred dollars now maybe

you're only getting 18 right that is an

example of inflation now if you say well

i'm going to spend 110 dollars to still

get 20 razors yeah now you're spending

more but you are making the choice to

spend more uh so this is a very big

misconception when it comes to consumer

spending more if consumers are willing

to spend more that's a good sign and so

the information that we actually got in

their

earnings call reiterated this

so here you go listen to this so first

of all they expect a margin hit from

higher inflation they're only passing on

about 50 percent of their cost increases

to consumers but listen to this quote

shoppers continue to pay for premium

items such as fragrance free diapers and

high-end razors razors despite rising

prices in fact the wall street journal

reported that procter and gamble said

quote the priciest offerings were in

highest demand and are still in the

highest demand and they have not seen a

trend towards discount products yet in

other words people uh who used to be

lower income households or are still

lower income households switched to

premium brands during the pandemic and

then did not switch back to discount

products or have not yet switched back

to discount products this still could

right procter gamble is still planning

on hiking prices their next big price

increases are coming in july which uh

obviously not good for inflation that's

gonna be another inflation issue there

uh it's one of the reasons in my opinion

you've got costco killing it they've

been killing it all year they're one of

the staples that have regularly been

cheering uh they're at 600. they just

crossed 600 it's really incredible i

mean they've done they did great during

the pandemic and they're just killing it

now phenomenal company

but uh this was interesting guess what

else procter gamble is spending a lot of

money on to convey

their innovation and value

advertising they are quote

uh increasing well not this is a

paraphrase it's not a quote uh strong

top-line growth in advertising as we

continue to communicate the value of

procter gamble anyway so inflation costs

are though broad-based and continue to

increase with little sign of near-term

relief that was not good that was a very

very very bad line but the fact that the

consumer is still spending is a very

good thing but how long does that last

well they actually gave us a little bit

of guidance they said that they expect

all this inflation to be a quote

temporary bottom line rough patch that

consumers have about 20 to 30 percent

more price elasticity than usual that's

a way of saying that consumers are

willing to spend 20 to 30 percent uh or

as prices go up they're losing 20 or 30

percent fewer customers than they

thought they would lose as prices go up

in other words people are sticking with

products

and higher and the price increases

they do not expect that elasticity to

hold into q4 though

but right now they are really branding

trade up to procter and gamble products

and they want to really advertise that

pretty heavily kind of interesting so

for me

this is an incredible measure of the

consumer it's basically the consumer

saying hey no we're we're willing to

spend on the stuff we want we still have

the money to do it again we don't know

how long that'll last

you know today we had the yield curve

flattened a bit again we're only at

about 28 basis points of a spread we've

got tesla earnings today tesla usually

turns red after earnings but it's

already red you've got steel dynamics

reporting after the bell today that

that'll be huge uh you know rumors that

they're going to be the cyber truck

steel company they're a texas company

and they've been killing it as a

commodity play obviously but i mean

golly you look at the market right now

anything stay at home related is just

getting wrecked now i'm going to talk

about real estate and then phase in just

a moment but

i mean netflix 20 36 roblox 12 shopify

10.5 wayfair 9.6 percent peloton uh end

phase all these companies down seven to

ten percent and and to me it's just this

is a clear sign that anything stay at

home related is getting smoked but not

just stay at home related

uh anything related in my opinion and

this is going to come more and more to

the real estate market i expect also to

get hit so

i actually closed my entire end phase

position which i feel so terrible about

because i love en phase i was just

showing my tesla or my end phase but

it's not my end phase battery and solar

panels to course members

and i've i had like i mentioned earlier

i already closed all my etsy and

the reason for that is as mortgage rates

continue to rise now they're over five

percent i highly anticipate that we are

going to see people spend less money on

homes and at home they're going to spend

more money on

services we already expect that

transition to occur and as that happens

companies are going to be more inclined

to spend more money on advertising now

tesla doesn't advertise tesla doesn't

need to advertise so i'm optimistic for

tesla long term i uh continue to add to

tesla and i do expect the stock probably

to

fall after earnings and if it goes up

it'll be a nice treat

uh but uh advertising tesla is where i'm

at if i was going to play commodities uh

and um

uh in the staples costco target steel

dynamics yeah you know the wheat etf

i've been pitching the wheat etf since

uh

since before the war

so uh and that that's just absolutely

killed it these are some wonderful

things if you're looking for sort of

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if you want to ever ask questions or are

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love it thanks so much for being here

good luck out there stay strong and

we'll see in the next one goodbye