Damn. This is Bad News for Tesla. I’m Sad.

all right folks yeah this is gonna seem

like a little bit of a tesla fetish

video but the purpose of this video is

not to spread fud it's to address fear

uncertainty and doubt because i'm a big

believer that if you're investing in a

stock and you hear something that's

fetish the worst thing you could do is

stick your head in the sand and pretend

it doesn't exist because you'll be blind

and then you get blindsided and rug

pulled and that's bad you have to be

aware of new information and be able to

address it

so

according to bloomberg intelligence

volkswagen is set to overtake tesla in

2024 for global electric vehicle sales

it already beats tesla in europe now

take a look at this chart folks i have

to say when i first saw this i was not

very happy volkswagen has substantially

more models than tesla does volkswagen

also is in a position where they can

sell cheaper models than tesla however

volkswagen does not have the margin they

don't have the autopilot or self-driving

and they don't have the profitability or

growth that tesla has see volkswagen is

expected to grow four to six percent per

year over the next five years

with negative earnings likely that is

year over year losses or like declines i

should say not negative implying losses

but like declines in earnings by 2026.

this means that even though bloomberg

thinks that volkswagen is going to

overtake tesla in number of vehicles

sold they actually think their net

revenue or i should say their net income

their earnings per share will actually

be

negative year over year by 2026.

this is likely because in my opinion

volkswagen is going to really try hard

to compete with tesla by slapping as

many batteries into cars as they can but

they're going to completely fail at

actually providing a loyal customer

experience and the most frontier style

technology like full self-driving

technology in a seamless manner and so

yeah when i first saw the bloomberg

chart with those ev sales from

volkswagen i kind of thought to myself

damn that kind of sucks like i want

tesla to be the number one but then i

got to thinking to myself you know what

it wouldn't surprise me though for a

company like volkswagen to just slap

together as many evs as possible sell

electric vehicles to more of the older

generations or even women who don't like

teslas as much as guys do and the reason

i say that is not to be ageist or sexist

it's just a fact

the average

tesla purchaser first of all has a

median household income of 140 to 150

000

substantially higher like 2x higher than

the volkswagen medium household income

but in addition to that we also have

mostly males who are between the ages of

25 and 45 driving teslas

so when we consider like the relative

market cap of tesla versus all of the

other legacy autos yeah it's pretty

large i mean we're like six to seven x

toyota okay it's a lot but why is the

tesla market cap like this because we're

expecting a potential 50

annual compounded growth rate now if

tesla misses on this growth rate we're

gonna have big problems and tesla's

valuation will get squeezed down however

one of the reasons that tesla also has

the valuation it does is because we

expect the nearly 90 plus percent margin

fsd revenue to become a big driver of

massive eps growth over the next 10

years

and this eps growth from full

self-driving has not been properly

estimated by wall street yet or quite

frankly anybody yet because the fact of

the matter is nobody knows

now it's also worth noting that elon

musk just tweeted that right-handed

model

wise were substantially under produced

because they underestimated the demand

for teslas in the united kingdom now i

then found a separate chart that i

thought was incredibly fascinating the

largest amount of competition to tesla's

isn't from generic everyday driving

brands

like honda's hyundai's toyotas and i'm

not trying to offend anybody we're

saying this is generic

not premium brands right

the biggest competition for tesla

actually comes from premium brands and

the biggest

leading

sales that is countries with the biggest

amount of premium brand sales are

actually germany and the united kingdom

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kevin get this

almost one third or 31 percent of all

cars sold in germany in the united

kingdom are considered premium vehicles

in the united states only 12 percent of

vehicles are considered premium vehicles

now this is also a little bit of a

downside because of well the dollar is

getting substantially stronger making

teslas more expensive even more

expensive

and germany and the united kingdom are

much more likely to be in a deeper

recession or a recession than the united

states is like if the united states is

in recession germany and uk are probably

gonna be in a worse recession you see

what i'm saying a little bit of a

downside it's kind of like yeah we have

chinese buyers of tesla's as well and

they're in a worse situation than

america is right

these are concerns but that actually

means that we don't need to be so

potentially worried about ev sales from

volkswagen cannibalizing teslas we've

got to be more worried about bmw audi

and mercedes but let's be real from what

i've seen from even just volkswagen i'm

not all remotely concerned about the

competition please have more people get

like

their eevee cherry popped so to speak

with a volkswagen and then let them

compare their ev volkswagen to a tesla

and go

oh damn i made a mistake

like really one of the biggest

competitors for evs is not evs it's

actually ice cars internal combustion

engine cars gas cars right that's where

the competition is going to come from so

folks

we do have another little bit of bad

news and no it's not that there's a

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growth linked down below but folks it is

the bad news that we have some layoffs

that are finally coming through in fact

we have a collection of linkedin posts

that are showing that project leads cgi

animation leads one person who was

working at tesla for six and a half

years have been cut the manager of

singapore has been cut staff trainers

have been cut regional warehouse

managers have been cut and three hiring

events in china have been cancelled this

is all part of the start of tesla's 10

000 layoffs and based on linkedin posts

we're starting to see them come through

now it's unfortunate but

this is part of the way that i believe

tesla will maintain their margins by

trimming the fat and i hate to say that

phrase because it sounds so terrible

because these are individual people with

lives and and who have dedicated

themselves to tesla and now they're

getting the boot my heart goes out to

them but looking at a company going into

a recession it's unfortunately what has

to happen and i think that's why every

single one of us needs to look at our

income and our our wealth or our jobs

and realize we're not immune to getting

cut or having our incomes go down either

now the nhtsa obviously the national

highway transportation safety

administration is upgrading its probe

into 830 000 tesla vehicles now because

of the adas systems advanced driver

assistance systems which have led to

some accidents this unfortunately is an

expansion of the uh original crash

investigations by this organization and

uh i think that is relatively fetish

i don't really have much of a comment

here because every time i've looked into

these crashes like specifically that

crash in texas where there was no driver

in the front in a car with full

self-driving it ended up being user

error now there are cases where tesla's

full shelf driving

has led to accidents and deaths so i'm

not trying to give tesla a complete pass

here and would i get into fsd and

trusted blindly absolutely not because

i've seen the car do some stupid stuff

too then again it's still a computer

it's learning

we just hope we don't get any kind of

crazy regulation out of the government

because of this right now the biggest

lobbies for regulation against tesla are

actually competitors for vision

technology and driving technology like

the most common ad you see on tv right

now bashing on tesla's full self-driving

is funded by a company that does their

own computer vision and like radar sales

and hardware and it's like this is so

slimy and shady i hate it but anyway

folks listen the only way tesla can get

back to a thousand dollars and then get

to two thousand dollars and three

thousand dollars and you need to know

this if you're an fsd or if you're a

tesla investor is through the massive

and rapid expansion of earnings per

share

not the not the pe well you know not

like multiples okay because multiples

are compressing all around us that's

what happens in recession earnings per

share need to explode that's it thanks

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