holy sh*t this is f*$k'd

lee holy smokes folks another terrible

miss it's not just the cp line number

that came out this morning but oh my

gosh folks it is 7 a.m i

literally just got the university of

michigan consumer sentiment print and

inflation expectations

and this

full on

sucks

baloneys like uh it i should not i

should not have put this on today okay i

jinxed it to the moon i jinxed it or or

it's because i'm literally packing right

now because i'm going to canada every

freaking time i leave god damn june this

[ __ ] happens

university of michigan consumer

sentiment last survey was 58.4

the current expectation was that we were

gonna get a read of 58.1 what did we get

50.2

absolutely terrible miss

under 50 is like very bad that means

more people are upset than they are

happy and we're 50.2 we're almost there

university of michigan consumer current

conditions the expectation was

62.9 slightly down from the 63.3 before

that comes in at

55.4

disaster

one-year inflation expectations this is

a bad one okay

this one-year inflation expectations we

were at 5.3

then we were expecting to remain stable

at 5.3

comes in at 5.4 that means inflation

expectations have gone

up

for the one-year inflation

for the five to ten year horizon of

inflation we were at three percent

now we're at three point three percent

also rising inflation expectations and

regarding consumers expectations for the

market

prior release 55.2

survey 55.3

as if things got better all of a sudden

but no it comes in at

46.8

i mean horrible miss as the numbers came

in i i said to my dad if those inflation

expectations

go

up

stocks will go down

and sure enough that's exactly what

happened because the sentiment came out

here and then

okay but this this is beside the point

because i gotta show you what's

happening

with this particular chart that i got to

show you because it's another freaking

disaster

okay so i'm gonna pull up these charts

but i want to quickly look at the five

year break evens five year break evens

this is the market's expectation for

inflation's right for future inflation

peak today at 3.16

like we had we had a nice big big run

over in march and april

here you know what we'll just put up a

screenshot what a big run in march and

april and uh and then i kind of

plummeted it's like okay all right you

know the peak is behind us like

inflation's a peak inflation is here

we're good now everything's good now

right yeah

no

not no not even close and so what's

happening inflation breakeven

expectations for the market are rising

that's that part right here above my

head so you can see we're down from

about that 3.8 but look at the spike

that we're getting over here and it

totally makes sense with what we're

seeing

not only with the huge miss on inflation

this morning but also the consumer

estimates that we got which you know

what's really ugly about the consumer

estimates that we got this morning with

inflation expectations rising that

survey was done

before

this latest inflation print came out so

if consumers are like oh my gosh we have

the worst inflation in 40 years but at

least maybe it's peaked

and their expectations for inflation are

going up

and then all of a sudden we get an even

worse cpi print well then consumer

expectations for inflation would

rationally go up even more

so in other words this latest consumer

estimate or expectation survey doesn't

even consider

the the impact of like tucker carlson

now telling us about the absolute worst

inflation

on top of this you got the 10-year

treasury jumping to 3.17

folks that means mortgage rates are

going to take up again

and not only are they going to take up

again

but what else

well real surprise is probably just

going to get a little boopsie doopsies

that's going to create some

opportunities and that's why a lot of

you are signing up for the programs on

real estate wealth link down below

whether it's the bundle most of you

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check it out by the link down below but

i got to show you these charts

because these charts signal a bigger

problem right here you ready for this

right here

look at this this

was the cpi month over month chart

remember we did this yesterday on the

whiteboard it looked like this this is a

zoomed in picture of my whiteboard right

that's what the chart looked like well

this is that was just me kind of hand

drawing it this is what it looks like in

the back end and what i want you to see

is that this bell curve right here is

where

the estimates are right so here you have

economists betting here here and here

and it's you know how many economists

you have betting in each place it goes

up in increments of five over here so

you've got you know dozens of economists

well look at this folks

this is where everybody was

this is where inflation came in on the

month over month let's try the

experiment again

oh core cpi this is where everyone was

this is where it came in

let's try year over year

this is where everyone was this is where

it came in

what does that tell you

it tells you

that we need to get paul frick and

volcker on the phone because our

economists the people who are supposed

to be brilliant all these people the

people who are supposed to be smart and

brilliant and know what they're doing

and the smart money people and the

researchers over at the fed

they're the ones who are supposed to be

telling us what the hell is going on and

they consistently get it wrong

it's devastating so how could you rely

on this

and so now this increases not only the

odds of getting a uh you know multiple

50 basis point hikes but it also

increases the odds of potentially a rug

pull paul volcker move where all of a

sudden we just get some kind of

uh big hike like out of the blue like an

inter-meeting hike of a hundred basis

points or something like that could you

imagine if this afternoon jerome powell

comes out and goes folks emergency

meeting where we're forget next week's

meeting we're going to raise rates 1

right now that's 100 basis points right

now what do you think would happen to

the stock market okay now what we also

should do is oh gosh yeah

look at the expectations

right here

for uh the rates at the end of the year

so

last week the market was expecting this

top line right here that we would be

somewhere between two and a half to two

point seven percent by the end of the

year with a 36 percent probability well

that's now moved down to just eight

percent

and instead what's now a 37 percent

probability is actually a whole another

50 basis points higher

sitting oops

right here at

37.3 percent

chance of being at 3 to 3.25

and the dot plot that we get from the

federal reserve next week wouldn't

surprise me if at the end of the year it

says something like three percent and

that's probably going to lead the market

to sell down as well i mean this is just

it's just bad

tesla's down three and a half percent

the nasdaq's down 3.22 we're still off

the bottom bottom on the nasdaq

but if we end up getting any kind of

volker action here and we keep getting

these sorts of reports we are not

leaving this floor and it sucks big time

baloneys

that's what i have to say it sucks big

time baloneys and i'm sticking to it not

only am i sticking to it but now i'm

gonna go i'm gonna go hop on a plane and

i'm gonna get the heck out of here i'm

going to canada

but

if you want to learn about real estate

and save lots of money and get ready to

go make lots of money check out the link

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review every deal that people put into

escrow and i can't wait till the end of

the year maybe mid next year beginning

to mid next year when we go shopping for

deals and i look at all your deals even

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zero to millionaire real estate

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also look at your remodels in the do

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tenant questions in our course member

live streams thanks so much for being

here we'll see in the next one goodbye