Back to 2008 Lehman Brothers.

oh hey everyone thanks for coming back

for your morning quickie i've got a

stamina potion and three quick things to

address and honestly they're pretty damn

bullish let's talk about it because they

bring us back to the lehman brothers day

which sounds not very bullish but if you

stay to the end you'll understand some

insight that you might miss in case you

didn't stay to the end like yesterday i

got a comment from somebody's like hey

you made videos a few months ago with so

much doom and gloom that i sold and i'm

like

did you miss the part in almost every

single one of those videos where i'm

like but this is the time to buy because

if you zoom out and you're in a

recession you're like oh damn if i could

ever time when to buy in my life i would

buy stocks in a recession

not my problem i say it in every video

if you click out early your problem not

my problem anyway take a look at this

number one few winners in the stock

market this is a chart showing the

percentage of members at new 52-week

highs and as you can see usually we sit

somewhere between that 10 to 20 percent

level the white bars being that s p 500

level to get a crazy spike there in 2021

but these new 52-week highs very very

interesting the reason you got that

spike in 2021 is because it really

lapped uh over from like march and april

of 2020 but if i remove myself look at

this corner here

very very very low 52 week highs i like

that i actually find that pretty bullish

and so does the stock market which is

actually rising quite nicely this

morning so far leading into a market

open now why would that be well because

we are going back to the lehman brothers

days which again sounds very negative

but if you actually listen to the

details it's because we got the ppi

report this morning which could have

literally undone the great news of cpi

yesterday but no it didn't if anything

it reiterated the great news of the

consumer price index inflation drop with

now the producer price inflation drop

coming in at a substantial low going all

the way back to lehman brothers days in

fact it came in so great that look at

this particular chart here uh we once

again

miss expectations like crazy the survey

called for month over month uh ppi uh

an increase of ppi inflation of 0.2

percent uh which would be 2.4 percent at

an annualized rate right it actually

came in at an annualized rate of a

negative six percent which is a

month-over-month rate of a negative

point five percent great

excellent miss

you also if you exclude food and energy

had a miss again coming in below survey

uh if you exclude food energy and trade

also miss

uh year over year final ppi demand also

comes in at a miss this is great this is

actually really freaking good news now

we're starting to reiterate the decline

now i know most of us aren't that

interested in all the details that go

into producer prices like commodities

now we got some other stuff to talk

about anyway but take a look at just the

bottom line here okay 80 percent of the

decline in goods prices stuff we buy

right that producers make was due to a

16.7 percent plunge in gas prices that's

great so a lot of that decline came from

gas prices but then that leaves the

question of okay but is inflation just

moving over to the services sector which

was always a big fear well service

prices rose just 0.1 percent in july

which is an annualized rate of just 1.2

percent well below the 2 federal reserve

target so look believe the pp lie or cpi

cp lied numbers or not uh but this is

this is actually very very good and i'd

like to provide us good news when we

have it and it makes for shorter videos

it's great now a couple other quick

notes first i saw this and

it was kind of hilarious when the ppi

numbers came out if you're wondering why

people confuse year-over-year changes

with month-over-month changes it's

because they're stupid

no i actually don't agree with this i

think uh honestly that it is kind of

confusing because it's something that we

don't learn about in school so i want to

give you a very quick mini lesson on

what the hell these month-over-month and

year-over-year changes mean in an easy

way for you to understand all right

let's and when i actually gave this

analogy to course members the other day

and i think it really helped so i just

want to provide this to everyone

let's say that on january 1st you weigh

100 pounds and the reason i'm using

weight is because in january i was

definitely a little heavier than i am

now and i had trouble getting down the

ski slopes and and now i'm like down 24

pounds and i'm like let's go but anyway

let's stick with this analogy let's say

january 1st you weigh 100 pounds and

then let's say uh april 1st of that same

year you weigh 120 pounds okay now i'm

going to show you quarter over quarter

but it's basically same thing

now you've gained 20

pounds in one quarter

that is almost like being on this speed

of if you're gaining 20 pounds in a

quarter over quarter that's basically

being on this trajectory if you stay on

that weight gain trajectory by the end

of the year you could be at 80 pounds of

weight gain which is a lot

right that's because the speed you're

going at is represented by a quarter

over quarter figure which you multiply

by a four

this could also be a month over month

figure right if this was february 1st

then what we would actually do is say

you you just gained 20 pounds in one

month you multiply that by 12. you're on

paste in that case

in one month geez 20 gain

240 pounds in a year if you stay on that

speed right that's the speed you're

looking at now if we then

say okay well you gained 20 pounds from

january 1st to march 31st and then the

next year that very next january so

january 1st plus one kind of like an

airline right plus one because it's the

next day no anyway the next year you

weighed 120. well now year over year you

gained 20 pounds uh so that means you

had a 20 year-over-year move so you

gained a lot of weight in that first

quarter and then you stopped and

visually why that's very very important

is because it means you had this really

high speed of gaining weight at a rapid

rate

and then you stayed flat and when you

make that year-over-year comparison

you're still up 20

but on a

month-over-month basis you're stable and

that stability is important that's what

we're looking for so when we see ppi

numbers come in at negative

0.5 percent it's really good news if you

see

cpi numbers come in at zero percent

month over month it's really good

because it implies that stability or

that or an inflection point to the

downside in the case of pp live every

ppi

uh okay last thing uh in this morning's

course member live stream we're going to

be going deep into matter ports

fundamental analysis on their earnings

we're really excited about that but i do

want to say we do still have risk

factors going to the upside on inflation

because

companies are doing so decently with

earnings look at what happened with

disney last night but they're still

raising prices so it's still a red flag

folks check out the courses link down

below people who invest in the series a

and who are course members are going to

get a special uh a bonus options for the

future at least that's what we're

currently planning uh and you will enjoy

the lifetime access and the continued

edition of content there's so many

wonderful comments from you who are both

course members and active watchers here

who love the content keeping the pitch

to the end today hope you appreciate it

and hope you appreciate the shorter vid

with no sponsor thanks folks we'll see

[Applause]

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