The Real HOUSING MARKET CRASH is HERE

we need to talk about the housing market

crash because everything you read about

or hear about online is telling us about

how horrible home buyer affordability is

which is true it's like the worst since

right before the Great Recession not

only that but mortgage rates have been

rising virtually all year now breaking

over

8.3% only just in the last two days

falling for the first time in months lot

of folks realizing on one hand even

though there's very little inventory on

the other hand the people willing to pay

the high prices of real estate today are

starting to become further and fewer

between in other words while people

might have been willing to pay these

high prices for Homes at high interest

rates or have had cash saved up from the

pandemic Lucky them that or those sets

of fires might be dwindling and so we

could be be in this weird transitionary

state where as the FED says rates stay

higher for longer housing gets screwed

in fact that's what Jerome Powell told

us right Jerome Powell just yesterday

said I'm talking to my industry contacts

and they are concerned to a significant

degree about what the impact of higher

for longer will have on the housing

market because that impact is starting

to be seen look it's been volatile when

rates first went up from basically 2.7%

to like 5% we saw the real estate market

hit somewhat of a wall the coid markets

dropped about 20% the non-co that's

going to be the the markets everybody

kind of fled to during coid right so

your Austin Texas your Boise idah right

we saw those surge we saw rents slowly

catch up afterwards and try to surge as

well then by the end of the year we saw

that pain had been hit and come January

23 we started seeing a recovery that's

LED some markets to actually now be

positive year-over-year Florida positive

year year-over-year San Diego positive

year-over-year other parts of the

country still negative and potentially

trending right back towards where they

were at the end of last year like Austin

went- 20% Then positive 10% now it's

trending back toga 20% so the question

is what happens going forward especially

when you have a jpow sending the warning

signal what is the most realistic answer

for what's going to happen well first

there are considerations yes today

inventory is substantially low but even

though inventory is substantially low if

you have a lower amount of buyers you

could still see pain in the housing

market we in the specific housing

markets that we are looking at and we

are looking at many different housing

markets with my real estate startup

travel to over 200 different cities 200

different times this year years it's

been nuts uh that's just this year alone

it's a lot of traveling but point is we

started seeing markets hit a wall right

around September which is when rates

started Rising even more that's when we

went from like a 7 and 1/4% interest

rate to like an 8 and a/ qu% interest

rate that extra percent almost started

feeling like the straw that broke the

camel's back properties that were

comping for 600,000 were all of a sudden

selling for 530,000 it was like a 12%

hit to the market in the spam of a month

the market hit a wall it's probably

because of that straw that broke the

camels back really again in a low

inventory environment driving available

buyers even lower now you have a lot of

people suggesting well we're going to

wait to the spring to sell and so a lot

of people are fearful that okay well if

everybody says they're going to wait

until the spring to sell their homes and

yes that's when there are more buyers on

the market what if inventory 10 x's and

buyers 5x you're going to have a surge

of inventory which could also depress

prices especially in a higher for longer

regime so the question is what the hell

do you do how do you put all of the damn

information together because it's

exhausting everybody has a different

opinion nobody knows what the hell is

going to happen and it's creating a lot

of fear uncertainty and doubt and

rightfully so because you don't want to

buy a place and then get decimated

because it falls in value so the first

thing that absolutely everybody should

do and then I will give you my

prediction the very first thing that

everybody should do is they should

consider when are they getting into real

estate themselves because ultimately I

think every single person watching this

video should become a homeowner that is

number one when is it your time and if

it's not your time right now are you at

least saving money and preparing for

that time okay number number two how are

you protecting yourself when you buy

real estate is not like the stock market

where you go in and you wow there two

Apache helicopters right above me

that that's odd I'm on FSD by the way

that I have not seen before okay odd uh

anyway the second thing that you need to

do is ask yourself how are you

protecting yourself how many Apaches are

around you no when you buy something in

the stock market you're just hoping the

stock market doesn't tangle on you you

can have all the fundamental research in

the world which usually works in the

long term but in the short term you have

no protection unless you're hedging

right that's why the options Market

exists but that's hard that's trading

and it's a job what privilege do you

have in the real estate market well the

real estate market is so imperfect it is

horribly inefficient terribly

inefficient inefficient uh agents uh and

I'm not I'm not saying that to bag of in

the industry I'm just saying humans by

Nature are inefficient computers are

much more efficient and real estate is a

human business it's a people business

you have to be there on the ground

talking to the painters the vendors the

people the contractors the Realtors the

inspectors uh the city officials you

have to be involved with everybody and

if you're not involved with everybody

you're not getting a good deal so you

have to be in the markets that you're

investing in the beauty is you can

insulate yourself and protect yourself

by getting a good deal in real estate

off Market is a fantastic way to do that

tell everybody you know that is an agent

in your community or a wholesaler or

whatever this is what we're looking for

bring us a deal like this we'll work

with you that is a fantastic way to try

to get less competition when you're

buying but you can get great deals on

the market too you just have to make

sure you're not foming that's when you

get multiple offers and all of a sudden

everybody's like oh I I got to pay more

cuz I got to win the deal you could

always win the deal you could win 100%

of the offers you're writing but if

you're winning 100% of the offers you're

writing you are

overpaying simple it's that simple like

people are like oh I lose out on so many

offers it's like okay well you're not

paying enough you don't know your market

and if you're winning all your offers

you're paying too much there's a right

balance

so what is the rule of thumb that you

should be focused on number two is

getting wedge deals I teach this in all

the courses that I have on real estate

and building your wealth go to

meetkevin.com to learn those they're

phenomenal I've been doing this for what

coming up 14 years now I love this this

game is easy and there is so much

availability that I'm not afraid to

share this Intel with you because there

are no shortages of deals which I'm very

excited about so what do you want to do

you want to do what we just did on a

house we just bought a house in a

neighborhood where a model near model

match four-bedroom two bath was selling

for like

$817,000 next to a busy road we're like

wow that's like an $830,000 property you

know adjusting for the busy road it

might be like $8.40 that's crazy though

why would you want to buy that next to a

busy road so we get one not on a busy

road in in a way better part of the

neighborhood for

605 and it probably needs like 60k worth

of work so that means if we're looking

at being into it for say 6 65 call at

670 and the place is going to be worth

$840 okay we we are looking at a

delicious spread of like

$170,000 in equity that's awesome

because that means the market would have

to fall

20% for us to go to zero on Equity but

we still wouldn't be upside down how

crazy is that those are the kind of

deals you want to look for this

particular deal not everybody's going to

be able to pull it off the way we did

because this was a seller that that came

to us and said look I'm willing to sell

this house for a discount

because I need the money in five

business days I'm like I can make it

happen but the numbers are going to have

to be right they're like let us know

what you think go inspect the property I

give a number I go inspect the property

I'm like oh God it is even a little bit

more work than I expected you get a

better deal okay you make the numbers

work for you you have to be patient in

this market and have that desire

to miss a deal and then you get good

deals okay that's how you insulate

yourself now the third thing is any kind

of talk about timing that this is going

to be 08 all over again it's going to be

a horrible Market recession whatever

okay remember in ' 08 prices fell like

38% so that's pretty extreme that was

based on people having uh Ninja loans no

income no job no assets liar loans uh

variable variable interest interest rate

loans not like the 30-year fix most

people are on right now who are locked

in you were getting paid to dump your

property back then okay remember that

you were given money to short sell your

home just to cooperate with the short

sell process and you were giving given

move out money just to get

out that's what we had in ' 08 that

facilitated a 38% drop if you have

already a 10% drop in markets now and

you're insulating Yourself by another

20% you're basically insulated by 30%

and I don't think there's any way in

hell we see the same kind of explosion

of loans that we saw in 2008 because the

loan portfolio is so different today

people are being paid to stay today

30-year fixed rate mortgage at you know

most people 90% of people under 4% it

doesn't make sense for people to sell so

it artificially keeps inventory low yes

it's rigged yes the real estate market

should have fallen a lot more but guess

what it doesn't doesn't have to you've

got unique circumstances here that say

doesn't have to not paying people to

sell now is it possible that rates stay

higher for longer and keep sort of a

boot on the neck of the economy because

after all Drome Powell says we're

keeping rates higher for longer of

course it's possible but here's what you

have to pay attention to not just the

opinions of people quite frankly you

should have your own opinion but what

you really want to pay attention to is

I'll tell you in a second house act

closed its fundraise yesterday it's my

real estate startup however there were

some people who got caught yesterday in

the glitchiness of a lot of people

trying to use the software at the same

exact time so if you didn't get into the

offering and uh you were having

technical issues yesterday email us at

ious hack.com

for people who were trying to get in

yesterday and were having problems we're

making sure that they still have access

so you can still read the offering

circular at house hack.com but the

website it has been changed and you

can't invest there you have to email us

email us at IR

house.com but otherwise the round is

closed which we're grateful for because

it's exhausting to fund raise uh did

very well though very very happy for all

of our investors we're going to do great

so what do you really need to pay

attention to the 10-year treasury that's

it pay attention to the 10-year treasury

because it doesn't matter if jpow keeps

rates High the 30-year mortgage rate is

based on or trades roughly around what

the 10year mortgage does or the 10 year

treasury does and there's a spread

between the two so it's not always

perfect uh and I'm not saying the

30-year mortgage rate is what the 10e is

it's not what I'm saying what I'm saying

is when the 10e goes down mortgage rates

go down okay and there's a spread

between the two that's all you got to

remember so what does that mean watch

the tenure because if the tenure starts

plummeting because jal's like we've

reached cap and everybody starts buying

bonds because they're like bonds are

about to Skyrocket in value yields

plummet the real estate market ain't

going to crash and the best possible

time to buy real State might quite

potentially be what I've been saying for

a year to 2 years now Q3 Q4 2023 here we

are baby Q4 2023 let's go