Job's Data REVISED DOWN - WTF Warning [JOLTS Oops!]

well what just happened with jobs data

because we just got a shock as in we

were expecting to have relatively stable

jobs data and I don't know what it is

but other people are pointing this out

as well last month we have this big beat

and oh the job dated the job openings

are great everything's fine maybe it's

seasonal hiring for FEMA work or

seasonal workers at Amazon or I don't

know pole workers right but now what do

you have now they tell us that job

openings were actually lower last uh you

know in August in the last report we

went down from 8.04 million openings

down to 7.86 one and then this report

which was supposed to come in at 8

million comes in at just 7.44 3 now the

details of these reports matter as well

and you've even got Nick T tweeting

about it and let's just put it this way

he doesn't sound that optimistic about

it in fact here you go you can follow me

on Twitter by the way I'm at real meet

Kevin or as many of the Elon fans like

to say x well everybody I supposed

should say that because that's what he

wants it to be called but whatever uh

also there's this little note musk says

there's a 10 to 20% chance that AI goes

bad not sure why that's there but uh

whatever we'll give it a like because I

like uh that account so Nick T whom I

also like so I'll give them a like job

openings fell in September and were

revised down for August putting the

3month moving average at its lowest

level since the reopening in the spring

of 2021 there were fewer than 1.1 posted

job vacancies for every worker counted

as unemployed in September this is not

great because look over here what did

you get into the plummet in the Great

Recession over here job openings falling

are very difficult to just stop like

once you start getting this collapse in

job openings it's very very difficult

ult to get it to recover uh and the

problem that you're facing is you're

getting a lot of companies that are

shrinking now I want to go into the

joltz reports in just a moment and we

can see some of these data this data a

little bit more here for example is the

uh 3-month moving average on these

numbers but I want you to just think for

a moment look at what's going on with

the consumer companies for a moment I

want you to look at Sofi Sofi reports

disappointing outlook for the future uh

you know next quarter and next year what

do you get you're down

7.3% McDonald's home of affordability

and eoli up because affordability is

challenged Crocs flat Revenue growth

down 18% today people are so challenged

on affordability that they're now buying

smaller homes instead of buying homes

they're buying more attached tow houses

this is what DR Horton said in their

report this morning and uh they're

buying homes that are a smaller square

footage than ever before as a result of

that what do you have DR Horton stock

home builder stock what do you got down

125% uh oh just got a notification as

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let's focus on this I mean the consumer

is suffering to the point where even

when you look at United Parcel Service

UPS people are like oh their their

revenues were so great at at earnings

and the company actually jumped uh after

earnings but it bled right back out

because when people started reading into

the details they're like wait a minute

UPS is only doing well because they're

squeezing out a little bit more

efficiency they're actually firing

long-term

workers they think this seasonal holiday

season seasonal holiday this holiday

season will be more quote tempered than

expected and while the consumer is

strong today nobody knows how long it's

going to last see we did have consumer

confidence numbers that came out this

morning and they were fantastic well no

duh the stock market's at all-time highs

consumer confidence is one of the

greatest lagging indicators when the

stock market goes up consumer confidence

goes up afterwards it happens almost

every single time just look at the

charts well when people lose their jobs

they stop praying for deflation because

they start realizing that deflation

leads to wage deflation and so what do

we actually have with the data well look

at the data I'm going to take you into

the tables because I like to go into the

tables I want to see the details what do

the details say I always say the proof

the devil is in the

details uh table number seven still no

indication in major pickup of

separations like layoffs right but

that's okay I wouldn't expect that in a

September jolts report which is what

this is anyway I would expect that in

January not now I expect layoffs in

January just like I expect Donald

Trump's stock to continue to get halted

as it's on its meteoric rise although

today it's gone from like positive 20%

to minus 2.8% and now it's halted again

uh but that's a really a topic for a

different video so what do you have over

here job openings every category in

seasonally adjusted job openings folks

every single category negative negative

negative negative here's one flat uh and

then negative so keep that in mind for a

moment the

Outlook uh for new hires flat to

negative that is not an excellent

Outlook uh and and I want to clarify on

Sofi I should should just mention that

their their forecast was for growth but

only 3.4% growth on

Sofi and that was deemed much weaker

than the market had expected because in

this last quarter they actually had a

great beat they beat by 12% uh on

adjusted IA they beat by 8.6% on net

revenue but when you go from 8 to 12%

beats to forecasting a 3% beat markets

are going oh where'd the growth go it's

kind of like with Crocs you know Crocs

tells you flat going forward not great

growth forecast disappointed at PayPal

as well you know where United States

sales are going up is that

McDonald's us uh or McDonald's

international sales missed this morning

but Us sales were up because people are

trading down to

McDonald's I hate to say it but it's

true in fact in recessions McDonald's

actually performs less bad than other

stocks usually uh but anyway take a look

at this so you're negative to flat on

every category on job openings you still

got some hiring going on though some

people wonder how much of this is you

know seasonal again this is supposed to

be the seasonally adjusted report but

even the hiring is pretty flat I mean

positive one negative one positive 3

positive 1 negative 1 positive 1 zero

these are pretty flat numbers on

different sizes here right you're not

really getting a massive separation yet

in the smaller companies you are in the

larger companies you're not okay it

roughly evens out right uh and and then

you're really not getting people

quitting which is very normal because

when people start getting nervous uh

about their ability to get a new job

people stop quitting you're at the

lowest levels of quits compared to

August or last year you're the lowest

levels of quits normal if you go to the

non seasonally adjusted figures so we go

from seasonally adjusted to

non-seasonally adjusted all categories

for job openings are down with the

exception of one you have uh 1,000 to

5,000 employees positive but outside of

that.2 .8 negative 1 negative 1 negative

1 positive4

ne4 so this is overwhelmingly negative

again the quits rate is falling

signaling less confidence in job Place

uh and you have lower separations which

is normal but folks once this once this

layoff cycle begins it doesn't end and I

think it's probably coming January

February I think you've got one last

little hurah where companies are like

yeah we squeeze some margins yeah we

beat on Q3 and Q4 yeah holiday season

yeah let's keep our workers what happens

in January in January people start

saying that's it we're cutting guess

what Starbucks is doing Starbucks come

January if you're not back to work in

the office you're fired for their

corporate staff that's the kind of stuff

that's going to keep happening it's

going going to get worse in January I

think the worst of the jobs reports

aren't coming now during the holiday

season they come when people are jully

out of money in the dollar hallas in

January and February it's not great this

is why we're raising cash cash with

house hack because you know if we get a

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about it we got a sale going for another

couple days over there uh but uh let's

uh let's analyze for a moment uh the uh

jul uh job

openings and let's just take a look for

a moment at the Historical job openings

level I Hope they've yeah they've

already updated this which is fantastic

so this is just a historical chart on

the St Louis fret Unfortunately they

started this over here in 2001 but even

in 2001 2000 you could see this peaked

out the recession began in March and you

get a downturn associated with a

recession just like you had a downturn

in the jolts associated with the

recession in 2008 oh but maybe this time

is different you know you can also go to

uh the quits levels here let's see

construction oh let's look at

construction for a moment let look at

construction yeah it drops again a

little bit not a surprise you really

probably have to smooth this out so if I

go with the quarterly reads uh oh yeah

quarter L doesn't look too good usually

that's a recessionary indicator DR

Horton also this morning mentioned that

uh they have a shorter lead times now in

uh uh the building of new homes which

you know is an indicator that

construction is becoming a little bit

more available uh not great either and

then the quits rate is usually something

we watch as well just as a tell that

when times get harder in an economy

people are less confident about their

jobs they quit less frequently and you

can look right now the quits rate is at

1.9 which is actually as low as what we

saw in about 2002 and 2003 it was not

this low in 2005 and six hit it again in

the recession and after the recession we

were even lower uh but you didn't see

this in

2016 17 18 you know post pandemic

obviously during the pandemic there you

had some quits uh so I don't know if

it's necessarily like horrible data

wouldn't say I don't I don't think the

data is horrible at all but it is a red

flag that some of the data that we got

in September uh or sorry in September

for August might end up getting revised

down substantially uh and we've got a

lot more jobs data coming uh not only do

we have earnings this week that we're

going to be paying attention to uh but

we're going to be paying attention to

the ADP private jobs report tomorrow

unemployment claims and the Challenger

report on Thursday jobs report on Friday

morning I'll be covering it all uh and

then of course today in the the

afternoon I'll be live for this as well

uh we'll have a market closing live

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uh folks thanks so much for being here

we will see you all in the next one and

uh djt let's do a quick little final

check on DJ tizzle DJ Tiel is sitting oh

where'd it go it's suspended oh that's

why I couldn't find it suspended at

about 4728 right now so we'll see where

it goes all right folks we'll see you in

the next one thanks so much goodbye good

luck we'll see you the next live why not

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congratulations man you have done so

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your take