Elon Musk ANNOUNCED Optimus+CyberCab Bundle? | TSLA to $1337

could Tesla hit

$1,337 per share let's talk whoa Elon

mus just announced that soon you might

be able to buy an Optimus robot and a

cyber Camp bundle almost like a bundle

coupon for frankly less than

$60,000 now that's actually pretty

exciting especially since I just bought

a cyber truck it was a cyber Beast which

cost me about1 15

$1,000 which means I could have almost

bought two Optimus robots and two cyber

cabs but then again maybe the joke's on

me anyway hey everyone me Kevin here I

want to just jump right into it let's

figure out what does this mean for the

freaking stock because this could be

really really exciting now I I haven't

done all of this and I I want to run

some of this with you so we can see it

together after we run some numbers uh

what I want to do is talk about why I

think Robotics are going to be huge in

the next 5 years and they have a lot to

do with a recession stay tuned there's

good news and bad news in that and I'll

give you a little update on the Cyber

truck all right ready here we go so uh

first of all let's just throw the bundle

in here and let's quickly take a look at

elon's uh tweet or post on X uh it is

the following it is a quote tweet of

somebody saying we will be able to buy

both of these products for around

$60,000 love the look of it by the way

really attractive uh Elon replies we

need to reach 1 million production uh

units per year basically first but yes

long term okay so acknowledges the

possibility but yes we've got a ways to

go so what is this worth to us uh when

this happens let's just put a

placeholder in let's just say this

happens by 2030 let's go 60,000 for the

bundle right and we're going to go with

a million of these bundles I'm calling

them bundles all right $60,000 bundles I

just deleted everything else okay I'm

not I'm not putting any you know actual

Robo tax revenues in here whatever I'm

just assuming these are sold these are

the sold units all right so for the sold

units we're going to run them at a 20%

margin and uh I'll throw some leases in

here as well just to get some lease

accounting and uh we'll throw our margin

in there we'll throw our services in

here whatever all right fine so I put

10% in for Opex I put a tax rate in here

of about

19% that gives us about uh 5.4 billion

in net income this should be pretty

logical because if you have revenue of

about 60 billion 60,000 time 1,000 uh

you got revenues of about

66 80% margin uh minus some other costs

for leases

servicing uh for operating expenses you

know actually running the business

whatever it might be note I do put some

Services Revenue in here as well well

though most of that is spent you end up

with somewhere around expenses of almost

$60 billion which again brings you down

to a profit of roughly 11% okay so they

make 60 billies Kevin got it they bring

6.6 to the bottom line then they pay

some taxes fantastic what does it mean

for the stock well just divide it by the

number of shares outstanding which will

then give you a158 of earnings per share

which if you multiply that by about a 50

PE ratio uh which is about a 1.67 PEG

ratio at a 30% growth rate for Tesla

which they would probably be at if they

were selling Optimus and and Robo taxis

you'd be at about 80 bucks 80 bucks a

share which is pretty cool ignore that

little note there for Uber but that's

not the fun

part let's now say they were able to

pull off an Uber okay first what we're

going to do is how many many Uber

drivers are there okay they have 7.8

million uh Uber drivers around you know

your active active Uber drivers which is

crazy 7.8 million that's a lot uh now

obviously a rooc cab is going to be able

to drive say four times as long as a

maybe even five times as long as the

average hours that an Uber driver drives

let's actually Google that average hours

an Uber driver Works let's just just see

okay they usually work about 12 to 19

hours a

week well that's 35 okay well that's

that's more of what they're trying to do

is get a rough average there 91% of Uber

drivers work less than 40 hours per week

however everything can vary all right

let's say the average Uber driver Works

20 hours per week all right well Robo

tax is going to have uptime of 90% of 24

hours a daytimes 7 of about 15 50 hours

a week which divided by 20 it's worth

about call it seven I'm going to round

down to be conservative a robo taxi is

worth about seven Uber drivers so let's

just go extreme here for a moment let's

say we can replace all of those 7

million Uber drivers by keeping 1

million Robo taxi and Optimus bundles

for ourselves you know the Optimus we

could license out to factories or or

whatever and the rooc cabs we can Uber

out basically let's then just take their

quarterly net income at Uber of $2.6

billion and annualize it so

2612 * 4 is about $10 billion of

potential net that's already net I don't

even need to put operating expenses in

there or anything because we've quite

frankly already done that uh so so this

is just an

extra Callie 10 billion of net all right

let's go on down to the net section here

and uh all we're going to do is we're

going to add to this1 billion I'll throw

it in right here 10 10 million 10

billion oops remember uh spreadsheets do

not like commas but I write the commas

in just to make sure I have enough zeros

and then delete the commas there you go

if you add that $10 billion of Revenue

in because you've kept a million cyber

cabs which drive seven times as much as

Robo taxis you can be looking at

$396 cents of earnings

alone from keeping a million uh well

selling a million

bundles and then keeping 1 million cyber

cabs for yourself you know this might

take an extra year or two but look at

the value of this $200

that alone is worth

$200 so it goes to show you them trying

to replace an Uber makes a lot of money

but the the even more insanely

remarkable part which I'm just not even

going to go this insane is Uber's just

providing the software you're actually

also replacing the human labor look at

this for a

moment revenues at Uber $ 11 billion the

costs of Revenue a lot of that is the

employee $6.7 billion do even if you

could capture half of that back because

of price compression in the market or

whatever you're taking in another $3

billion potentially in quarterly income

times four that's another 12

billion you know there there are a lot

of risk to this but if I now add in

another 12

billion to that

number all of a sudden I get to look at

this on just

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selling 1 million Robo

taxes and Optimus robots I'm at about 80

bucks a

share however if I can replace Uber with

17th of the vehicles and I just have a

million Robo taxis on the road I go up

to about $200 per share as well as

selling a million bundles if I can now

capture 50% of what the workers charging

for my robot I go up another

$166 to $364 per share folks that's $364

per share on top of the cars Tesla sells

today the FSD the energy Revenue

whatever else this is just Optimus and

robotaxi so add on top of that the other

$300 or whatever you you have this

potential longer term you know double if

Tesla pulls us off or even much more

than that you know I can see people

saying you know Kevin why so bearish now

obviously there are some limits to this

right okay let's now talk about some of

the limits so we don't want to be poor

pure pure one directional here okay

number

one recession on robotics okay we got to

talk about that then we got to talk

about price compression in robotaxi

uh is volume better than service

provider right

like with these Uber numbers I'll just

hit that one first really quickly uh

with Uber numbers you want to be Uber uh

and the owner of the

vehicles like the the numbers are good

the margins are

great uh the the margins are great just

being the app but they're amazing if you

can partner in the human income

replacement mostly

because you only need one rooc cab for

every say seven human Uber drivers

because these cars are driving seven

times as much as the average Uber driver

driving you know four um 20 hours a

week okay so so this is great the

problem is price compression could kill

this so if price compression reduces how

much money in Uber can make then it

reduces how much money Tesla can make

because there's

competition uh speed of service uh will

drive

people uh to whatever app uh is fastest

basically outside of the Tesla loyalist

Community which does mean there is huge

value in just selling the pickaxe right

right making the rooc cab is like making

the pickaxe you're not going gold mining

you're just conservatively making the

pickaxe all right well let's go back to

our spreadsheet for a moment and let's

just

remove all this optimism that we're

going to keep uh all of these uh these

units ourselves right so if I remove

that I'm back to 80 bucks and let's say

this becomes so popular that longterm

we're actually selling you know 5

million of these vehicles uh and Optimus

bundles per year just totally possible

especially if the technolog is really

killing it that alone is worth $400 on

top of what the company's currently

doing with energy or you know with with

people who still want to drive their own

cars for whatever reason it's a whole

another business right

anyway that's bullish but what about

this recession talk uh and then we got

to talk Kevin

CT so interestingly a recession on

robotics uh will not cause a recession

like robotics

won't uh but robotics plus AI in my

opinion uh will

prolong any recession and the reason for

that is I think what you're going to

find is uh either

soft Landing or recession layoffs will

happen uh new hiring even in the face of

stimulus so in other words even if the

government's printing money which they

will again they're lowering rates

whatever uh will be slow so in other

words new hiring is in my opinion likely

to slow down because companies will bias

towards hey existing employees can you

can you work with an Optimus robot and

get this done can you work with AI and

get this

done basically you are replacing the

need for labor longer term unemployment

may be normally closer to 10% than 3% we

might never see 3% again because of

Robotics now while Tesla seems like it

is basically the only Mass manufacturer

that could probably pull off Mass making

Optimus robots or Robocat ABS outside of

China it is worth considering that there

are going to be a lot of startup

Acquisitions for

robotics uh AI uh probably nuclear

energy or green energy uh and and really

anything

around uh making a human more

efficient a lot of companies like apple

Amazon Google I don't know that they

have their own robotics plays

yet and so I think there are a lot of

startups that are going to be right for

acquisition if I'm right uh that the

next recession or soft

Landing will be prolonged by robotics

the mag 7 will basically realize they

must invest in robotics to keep up not

just language learning models actual

robotics obviously the language learning

models could potentially be within in uh

the robots the the the training that

we're doing for AI will you know help

the vision of these

robots but that probably makes some

areas of the startup and Venture Capital

markets more

desirable because you're really in in an

environment

where some of these companies are

trading for $500 million a billion

dollars or whatever in the private space

Tesla's trading for a trillion dollars

you know you're a to buy shares of some

of these small companies for

1,000 the cost now obviously the risk is

a lot higher so you want to diversify

your Investments don't put all your eggs

in one basket so to speak uh but uh you

know the potential of a 1020 X seems to

be a lot higher at some of these other

smaller plays uh you know again when I

say like oh yeah Tesla might double

people are like why are you so bearish

well really just law of large numbers at

some point making too many rooc cabs

will actually cannibalize your existing

vehicle production business where you

know maybe you're M you were making 3

million normal cars per year but now

you're going to go you know that's going

to go down as your cyber caps ramp up so

you're kind of self- cannibalizing for a

while which isn't great but longer term

if you could sustain a valuation as we

have here just from Optimus and cyber

cab and I don't even have energy in here

well that does create some excitement

that doesn't mean the stock isn't going

to go down I think the Stock's probably

going to go down in the next

recessionary cycle and I think you're

going to have plenty of opportunities to

buy the dip on it but I would give some

word words of

advice uh and and these are you know a

lot of these are either from lessons uh

that I've seen other people make

mistakes on or even just makes mistakes

I've made myself but number one uh I I

think this is just fair advice for

everybody and then I want to give you

that cybertruck update um be cautious of

using margin using margin

the reason is when a stock goes down and

you're exposed in margin what you're

doing is you're amplifying the risk of

going bankrupt and ruining everything

that you're building whatever it is that

you're building maybe you're not

building anything so you have to be very

very very cautious of using margin

ideally you just don't use a margin at

all if you are it's it's for cash

purposes or real estate purposes and

it's a

fraction of the of a percent uh like the

stock would have to or you know 99% for

you to get margin called or

something all right so be cautious of

using

margin uh be patient uh there will be

plenty of dips enabling you to increase

your allocation to

Tesla uh you know I I always like I look

at this I

go for me Tesla seems like something I

I'd really like to have around that 15

to 20% uh in a

portfolio uh really post post soft

Landing post recession you could sort of

build that up during the turbulence

that's coming during that time I'm not

convinced that things are going to be

straight up solely because Trump is in

office for Tesla and I think that the EV

tax credit still hurts

Tesla the loss of that that

is uh but I think that a way to get

there is start very small you know three

to 4% uh and then buy the dips your

average cost basis uh might be

substantially uh lower that way no

guarantees so something to think about

oh now what does this mean near term for

the stock price well it depends a

recession kills valuations for

everything and it gives you really good

buying

opportunities but if this is true that

whatever next recession

occurs

actually accelerates the adoption of

Robotics te Tesla after the next

recession will be $1,000 plus stock over

maybe even

$1,500 but you're you might have to get

through the next recession first now as

far as my cybertruck uh few updates one

it's awesome uh the thing's really great

it's very enjoyable to drive I actually

find myself driving it more than I have

it on autopilot just because it's fun to

drive that's probably just because it's

sort of honeymoon period And I think the

car thinks it's a model 3 but it's way

bulkier or like a model y so like you

can kind of feel when it's taking turns

it's like okay yeah you don't even

realize how wide you are like you don't

even realize your size

[Music]

sir uh oh well so that's something to

keep in mind but otherwise fantastic car

really nice to have all the space love

the little under cybertruck uh like

under bed storage in the back that's

great for putting stuff uh and then it

not just all sloshing around in the bed

that's really functional and the frunk

is great too I can throw like my dry

cleaning in the frunk it's like the

perfect size or a golf bag it's great

anyway uh hey if uh if I haven't already

mentioned it I don't think I have make

sure you get your Alpha report go to

meetkevin.com

Alpha get your Alpha report every day 15

minutes before the Market opens and

folks we'll see you in the next one

thanks so much again we'll see you soon

bye do not advertise these things that

you told us here I feel like nobody else

knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your take