TRANSCRIPTEnglish

*Trump* JUST Reset the Fed

36m 3s6,750 words976 segmentsEnglish

FULL TRANSCRIPT

0:00

Well, it's official. I'm leaning towards

0:02

choosing Kevin Hasset. That's right.

0:04

Kevin Hasset apparently emerging as the

0:06

quote unquote front runner for the

0:08

Federal Reserve. Scott Besset mentions

0:10

that we should be expecting Kevin Hasset

0:12

to be essentially formally announced

0:14

before Christmas. Uh and now they've

0:16

they're sort of softly leaking this

0:18

reveal. This is a very common strategy

0:20

by uh government to slowly kind of hint

0:24

that oh, we might be choosing this

0:25

purpose person. They purposefully leaked

0:28

this so they could see what the market's

0:29

reaction is. So what Donald Trump and

0:32

staff are going to do now is they're

0:33

going to monitor the reaction in markets

0:36

specifically regarding the dollar and

0:38

with treasuries. Uh the dollar is

0:41

already moving slightly lower on this

0:45

hasset rumor quote unquote rumor. Uh

0:48

that's the intention. Kevin Hasset in my

0:50

opinion is a wet blanket. I'm not trying

0:52

to be offensive here. Maybe I just, you

0:55

know, maybe we need to sit down for

0:57

dinner and and I need to be impressed

0:58

here. But I feel like he's more of a

1:00

Trump shill. He's actually the perfect

1:03

candidate for Trump to choose because he

1:05

doesn't have the balls of his own. Uh

1:08

like Myron, who you know, we'll go

1:10

through what Myron just said in a moment

1:12

as well. He's calling for Fed rate cuts.

1:14

But Myin, he we know that that's old

1:16

news. Myin, even though he's also a

1:19

shill, he has balls. like he will stand

1:23

with facts. I don't think Hasset does

1:25

that. Now, that's somewhat good and it's

1:28

somewhat bad. So, here's where it's

1:29

good. It's good because it's bullish

1:32

rate cuts. Hasset,

1:35

he's going to do whatever Trump wants.

1:37

And if this economy continues to decay

1:39

the way it is with labor statistics data

1:42

that we're seeing now, ADP report this

1:44

morning, remember what we saw with the

1:45

ADP report in consumer sales this

1:46

morning. I mean, let's do a quick recap

1:48

of the numbers. So this morning with the

1:50

ADP 4-week moving average coming in at

1:53

-3.5, we are getting data four times as

1:56

fast as we used to get it because now

1:58

we're getting data on a weekly cadence

2:00

with a 4-week moving average and it is

2:02

now on a four-week moving average

2:03

declined from -2.5 to3.5.

2:06

The Federal Reserve will be getting this

2:09

jobs data, which we just got, plus the

2:12

ADP jobs data for the full month of

2:14

November, plus the first weekly report,

2:17

which will be the day before the Fed

2:19

meeting before their presser on the 9th.

2:22

Uh they'll be getting that weekly data

2:23

as well. So, the Fed's going to get a

2:25

lot of ADP data here. You know, people

2:27

are like, "Oh my gosh, the Fed has no

2:28

official BLS labor report data." Okay,

2:31

they'll just use the ADP data and we'll

2:33

get our rate cut. It's not a big deal.

2:35

But you know the concern really is what

2:38

happens after the 25 BP rate cut which

2:41

is an 80 85% chance right now. The

2:43

concern is that the economy continues to

2:45

decay. Well, you've got this large

2:48

chorus at the Fed that's really worried

2:49

about inflation. Hasset being, you know,

2:52

the Trumpian and chill that he is, uh,

2:54

will, uh, will favor rate cuts as

2:58

opposed to worrying about inflation and

3:00

he could drive along with my and others

3:03

towards consistent more rate cuts. Now,

3:07

that's actually coincidentally

3:10

probably the right move. Like I'm of the

3:12

mindset that any kind of tariff

3:14

inflation will increase prices but then

3:17

next year we'll probably see deflation

3:19

because as the economy collapses slowly

3:21

it's slow bleeding I shouldn't say

3:22

collapsing as the economy dims I guess

3:25

is the word Bloomberg is using these

3:27

days as the economy keeps dimming uh as

3:30

we see layoffs at even like Apple now

3:32

right look at this Apple cuts jobs

3:34

across its sales organization and rare

3:37

layoff as the economy keeps dimming uh

3:40

we're likely to see a need for more rate

3:43

cuts and we're going to see more

3:44

disinflation.

3:46

So far, I know when people hear that,

3:48

they're like, "But Kevin, prices are

3:49

still high." I know it's coming. I mean,

3:51

I like using this as an example. I went

3:54

to uh Target with uh Jack. Oh boy, this

3:58

was probably like three three or so

4:00

weeks ago. I go to Target with him and

4:02

I'm like, maybe I can pull up the

4:04

picture. I go to Target, we go up the

4:06

little escalator, and they've got this

4:07

whole rack of TVs, and I'm like, I just

4:10

bought a 55 in 4K TV on Amazon for like

4:13

$340 or something like that. Uh, and

4:16

then I see in Target, I'm like, what the

4:19

hell? They have the same essentially 4K

4:22

TV for

4:25

$250 and then there's another one for

4:28

$199.

4:29

And I'm like, this is crazy. This is

4:32

literal deflation happening in TVs. Now,

4:34

TVs could be loss leaders, so it's not

4:36

necessarily an indicator of of the

4:38

economy. Uh, but uh it's wild because

4:41

Yeah, there it is. I have a picture of

4:42

Jack. I just found it. I have a picture

4:43

of Jack standing in front of it. Uh,

4:45

that was the four uh the the 43 in was

4:48

199. The uh 55 in, which was the same

4:52

size, was this other picture. Here was

4:54

one at uh $24959. So, it's like $100

4:58

less than Amazon. And I just went there

5:00

yesterday as well or two days ago and I

5:02

think the prices came down even more

5:04

maybe Black Friday sale or something

5:06

like that. But like that is going to

5:07

come more as stores realize this is my

5:10

bottom line sentiment for Target. I

5:12

think Target realized that they spent

5:14

too much time remodeling their stores

5:16

and trying to make their stores look

5:17

nice and what they've done is they've

5:19

forgotten the thing that brings people

5:21

to the store and that's everyday value.

5:23

You know, people go to Walmart because

5:25

they see the roll back advertisements in

5:29

their face every single day. People care

5:33

less about this, you know, fancy design

5:37

that Target does with their stores. They

5:39

want the bill at the checkout to be

5:41

lower. The economy, you see, like this

5:43

is Target for example. Here's like

5:45

they're trying to make their stores all

5:46

fancy with this Ulta partnership or

5:48

whatever, which that failed also. You

5:50

know, Ulta is already rugpulling Target

5:51

on that. So Target's getting hit. They

5:53

just need to lower prices. But the point

5:55

is the consumer is weakening because the

5:58

labor market is weakening. Apple's

6:00

laying off. You've got consumer

6:01

confidence plummeting. The lowest

6:03

consumer confidence since April. We've

6:05

got a retail sales miss. And that's

6:07

driven by uh the only reason you had a

6:10

little bit of a be or a match here was

6:12

because of gasoline. We looked at the

6:14

components of this. But if you remove

6:16

autos and gas, retail sales miss, you're

6:20

actually on control group negative for

6:22

September. Now, it's older data, but I

6:25

personally think this is because people

6:26

spend a lot of money worrying about, you

6:28

know, oh, they're going to raise prices

6:29

because of tariffs. Prices are going to

6:31

come down over the next few years. And

6:33

somebody like Kevin Hasset, who will

6:35

aggressively lower rates, I believe,

6:37

will actually be not only good for the

6:39

real estate industry, but it'll be

6:41

potentially in the short term good for

6:42

equity markets because people will be

6:44

like, "Yay, you know, stocks up because

6:46

rate cuts and risk assets will go up.

6:48

You know, Bitcoin's up 500 bucks since

6:50

since this asset information is out." Uh

6:52

but uh but the underlying economy is

6:54

still one that is fueled by debt. This

6:56

is just our gas price analysis here. And

6:59

there's a problem with that. See, we

7:01

talked about this quite a bit uh

7:02

yesterday. This deficit financing that

7:05

you're getting from the AI companies is

7:08

unfortunately a quite a big risk factor

7:11

for the economy because the more

7:14

companies start getting nervous about

7:16

the debt that's being loaded up, the the

7:18

less of the banks

7:21

are willing to actually finance these AI

7:24

products or projects. And that's the big

7:27

risk factor. Now, I want to listen to

7:28

what Myron said this morning uh because

7:30

he's also shilling for rate cuts. Uh

7:32

which is great. You know, we do expect

7:35

uh these rate cuts, this rate cut to

7:37

come in December and then more to come

7:38

as the economy keeps weakening after

7:39

that. In the short term, the stock

7:41

market ironically loves the idea of a

7:44

weak jobs report because you get

7:45

Treasury yields that come down uh and

7:47

you get the odds of a rate cut up, which

7:49

is short-term stimulus. But uh let's

7:51

listen to Myron here and then we'll talk

7:53

a little bit about more about AI and

7:55

data centers and what's going on with

7:56

the spend because you know obviously

7:58

there was a lot of enthusiasm about

8:00

Google this morning. Uh but surprisingly

8:03

Google actually gave up a lot of its

8:05

pre-market enthusiasm potentially as

8:07

institutions kind of start saying you

8:09

know what time to ring the bell time to

8:11

take a little bit of profit. Now in

8:13

fairness regained 414 on Tesla regained

8:17

green on the Q's. We're back at 6 uh 607

8:20

here likely because of this talk of rate

8:23

cuts. But let's listen to Byron here.

8:25

Oh, and the appointment of Hasset. In

8:27

the short term, bottom line on on

8:30

Hasset, good for stocks, good for

8:32

yields. In the long term, it's probably

8:35

also exactly what the economy needs.

8:37

Worst case scenario, you would have

8:38

gotten in my opinion somebody like um

8:41

Kevin Walsh. Kevin Walsh, he wouldn't

8:44

turn on the money printer in my opinion

8:46

if the economy crashed. So, that's what

8:48

you have to consider as well, like what

8:49

happens if we actually go into a

8:50

recession. Who do you want at the

8:52

Federal Reserve? You have a choice. You

8:55

could have, oh, there's Taylor Riggs.

8:56

That would work, too. Um, you could have

8:58

Kevin Walsh, who's somebody who is

9:00

reluctant to print money, and we we saw

9:04

him at the Federal Reserve in 2008. He

9:06

was reluctant to turn the money printer

9:07

on. Uh, do you want somebody like Kevin

9:09

Worsh, or do you want somebody like

9:10

Kevin Hasset? I mean, if you want it all

9:12

to really go to hell in great reset, you

9:14

want a Kevin Worsh who's going to go,

9:15

"No, we're not going to print money." If

9:17

you want the money burner to come and

9:18

you want some buy the dip opportunities,

9:20

you want a Kevin Hasset cuz if poop hits

9:23

the fan, not only is the guy going to

9:24

cut rates to zero, but he's going to

9:26

drive the money printer through the

9:28

roof. It'll be great. You know, risk

9:30

assets will love it. It'll be it'll be a

9:32

generational buying opportunity is what

9:33

you get if you slow bleed into a

9:35

recession and then you get Kevin Hasset

9:37

printing money. But anyway, let's listen

9:39

to um Myin.

9:44

Oh. Oh, Fox News. We got the pin wheel

9:46

ON FOX NEWS. OH, WE GOT TO GO THROUGH AN

9:49

AD FIRST. WELL, you know what? While

9:51

that 13 seconds goes, did you know you

9:54

could get lifetime access to the Meet

9:56

Kevin Alpha Report by going to meet

9:58

Kevin.com. Get all our insights on

10:00

stocks every morning before the market

10:02

opens and trading insights. Meet

10:04

Kevin.com.

10:07

because you can't

10:09

>> by at least a quarter of a point. Stocks

10:11

moving higher yesterday uh on the

10:13

expectation that we will see another

10:15

cut. Fed chief Jay Powell under pressure

10:17

from the president uh to keep cutting

10:19

interest rates as we said inflation

10:21

numbers and he

10:22

>> is exerting you know restriction on the

10:23

economy. It's holding the economy back.

10:25

It's pushing the employ the unemployment

10:27

rate gradually upward and I don't think

10:29

that's appropriate given the economic

10:30

outlook. So I think it's the

10:32

>> absolutely agree and remember the

10:34

unemployment rate is already starting to

10:36

rise and we have not seen a stock market

10:38

tank yet. That's the concern is that so

10:41

far the stock market in fairness has has

10:43

done fantastic. You know every

10:44

opportunity this year has been a buy the

10:46

dip opportunity is with the exception of

10:48

like Micro Strategy. You know Micro

10:50

Strategy posted at Realme Kevin on on X

10:53

this morning that it took 3 months to

10:56

lose 34% of its value. It's only taken

11:00

three weeks to lose the next 42.7%.

11:04

It's it's been a problem. Uh but

11:06

otherwise, stocks have broadly been a uh

11:10

by the dip uh all all of the year

11:12

almost. Uh and so that we have not

11:16

tested yet. If we end up testing that to

11:18

the downside, that's when you could

11:20

potentially get early retirees coming

11:22

off the sidelines. Then you get the

11:23

labor force participation rising and

11:25

then you really have a problem in the

11:27

labor market. So trying to get ahead of

11:29

that, especially with a Hasset

11:31

appointment, kind of smart. So you're

11:33

going to get a short-term pump out of

11:35

this, and that's exactly what Trump is

11:36

trying to engineer. I mean, you've had

11:38

three weeks of the cues going red. You

11:40

had a little bit of a bounce yesterday.

11:41

Now you're going to get a little bit of

11:42

a hasset pump here as well.

11:43

>> The right thing to cut interest rates

11:44

rather quickly. Now, I think what you'll

11:46

see on the rest of the committee is that

11:48

the labor market data that we got

11:49

recently, I hope, will move people in my

11:52

direction of thinking it's appropriate

11:53

to continue cutting interest rates. I

11:55

think that's what the data call for. And

11:57

you know, my guess would be that's what

11:58

we get, but I can only at the end of the

11:59

day speak for myself.

12:00

>> Look, I know that you're following your

12:02

mandate and your colleagues are are on a

12:04

mandate. But when you consider some of

12:05

sort of the larger issues happening,

12:07

like for example,

12:08

>> dude, who wears white socks with a suit

12:10

like that, is that a new thing? Am I

12:12

missing something?

12:13

>> Yes would be that's what we get. But I

12:14

can only at the end of the day speak for

12:16

myself.

12:16

>> Look, I know that you're following your

12:18

mandate and your colleagues are on a

12:20

mandate, but when you consider some of

12:22

>> white socks don't belong on a suit. For

12:23

example, AI AI is expected to replace

12:26

jobs in a big way. Yes, we're going to

12:28

have new jobs coming up, but that whole

12:31

structure and this issue precise numbers

12:34

on the on the the footprint of AI in the

12:37

economic data on a on a real-time basis

12:39

other than say in some of the investment

12:41

data that you get about about uh about

12:43

capital formation in the economy. Um,

12:45

but when it comes to thinking about what

12:47

AI means for the future, if you get uh

12:50

AI replacing some workers at various

12:52

parts of the of of the labor force, what

12:54

that does is it's it's both

12:55

disinflationary because you're sort of

12:57

it's disinflationary because you have a

12:59

new technology allowing you to produce

13:00

more with less those counts

13:03

in my mind to to move

13:05

>> the disinflationary argument he's making

13:06

is really a a way of reiterating that

13:09

this new Fed board is going to be very

13:12

interested in cutting rates. I wouldn't

13:14

be surprised if Hasset drives us to

13:16

zero. Mark your calendar. Okay, mark

13:18

your calendar.

13:21

The year is 2032.

13:24

We look back. So that's seven years from

13:27

now. The year is 2032. We look back, we

13:30

go the labor market rolled off a cliff.

13:32

Kevin Hasset cut rates to zero. expanded

13:36

the Fed balance sheet from six, you

13:38

know, whatever trillion dollars

13:41

to

13:43

probably honestly $20 trillion.

13:46

We are 200% debt to GDP. We're way more

13:50

in debt than we've ever been before,

13:52

but we're actually at this new sort of

13:56

decade of stock euphoria and asset value

13:59

euphoria where the people who own stocks

14:03

and real estate end up even richer than

14:06

ever before than ever wildly imagined

14:09

because of the amount of money printing.

14:14

Mark it on your calendar. Tell tell your

14:16

your your phone or whatever, hey, you

14:18

know what? Remind me in seven years

14:20

>> interest rates a little bit for a little

14:22

bit lower down.

14:22

>> So what do you want to say about the

14:24

mandate as it relates to employment

14:26

because that's we're getting all this

14:27

data now after the government shutdown.

14:29

We'll get retail sales this morning.

14:30

We'll get the producer price index. What

14:32

about jobs?

14:33

>> Yes. So that's a that that is the qu

14:35

that is the key question. Now as I look

14:37

forward into 2026, I see a few reasons

14:39

for optimism, right? I see the effects

14:41

of deregulation continuing to kick in. I

14:43

see the effects of tax policy like full

14:45

expensing of investment continue to kick

14:47

in. I see the uh the effects of uh the

14:49

trade deals in which uh other countries

14:51

have committed to invest in the United

14:52

States kicking in and the the uh the

14:54

dissolution.

14:55

>> A lot of people are really enthusiastic

14:57

about this that hey, you know, we're

14:59

going to get tax cuts, maybe we get

15:01

stimulus checks or whatever in 2026.

15:03

It'll be a great year. The problem is a

15:04

lot of that starts getting priced into

15:06

the stock market now. And the the big

15:08

risk that I get worried about uh is that

15:11

we actually end up having uh a a failure

15:17

uh of financing. That's the biggest

15:20

concern that I have. So you look at uh

15:23

you know the the data center financing

15:25

we're seeing right now and really if you

15:28

stop financing Oracle or Coreweave,

15:32

you're done. You know, people got pissed

15:34

off at me yesterday on on X because I

15:36

posted this video clip of me explaining

15:38

how uh financing is done for these AI

15:41

plays. And frankly, the concern is that

15:44

as soon as the the the Kool-Aid stops

15:47

flowing, it's over. Uh because you need

15:51

the debt to keep flowing to fund uh

15:54

these uh these chip buildouts. And if

15:56

the debt stops going to companies like

15:58

Coreweave, then you've got big problems.

16:01

Now 607 seems to be a little bit of a

16:03

stopping point not a surprise for the

16:04

Q's but look at corewave I want to show

16:05

you very important lines okay so if you

16:08

go to coreweave right here that 6847

16:11

line if we keep losing these lines which

16:15

so far we've been taking out every

16:18

single line on this retracement has been

16:20

taken out so far if we keep going down

16:23

on coreweave what'll happen is you're

16:25

going to get under this 55 to 35 range

16:28

Nvidia is going to start buying

16:30

But then there's going to be a problem.

16:32

Nvidia is going to start buying a

16:34

company that's actually going down. So

16:36

Nvidia buys it just bails out existing

16:39

shareholders. Then Nvidia shares go down

16:42

because people are like, "Well, Nvidia

16:43

is the only buyer and they're buying a

16:44

money losing stock." So then they take

16:45

profits on Nvidia and you get this sort

16:47

of vice versa cycle. If Coreweave loses

16:51

its IPO price and we drive more people

16:54

to sell, it's not that the company goes

16:57

to zero because the stock goes down.

17:00

It's that bankers get nervous. It's that

17:03

all of a sudden JP Morgan, the cockroach

17:06

in disguise, starts saying, "Oh my gosh,

17:10

we can't lend to Cororeweave anymore

17:12

because their stock is going down." You

17:14

have to remember the stock is a form of

17:17

collateral. So if the collateral value

17:20

is falling

17:22

then you got problems and you stop

17:26

lending and if you stop lending now all

17:29

of a sudden coreweave can't buy Nvidia

17:30

chips anymore and that's when the growth

17:33

rate of Nvidia slows down. So really

17:36

watching Coree stock in my opinion is a

17:38

great tool for evaluating where are we

17:41

in the cycle because once Coree gets to

17:43

the point where people aren't lending on

17:44

it anymore that's when your true

17:46

problems hit. Remember that debt chart?

17:48

It's all debt fueled right now. We're

17:50

past the cash fuel phase. Cash fuel

17:52

phase was still good

17:54

>> of uncertainty over trade and and and

17:56

tax policy. However, we have to

17:58

recognize that the unemployment rate has

18:00

been drifting higher and that is a

18:02

function of monetary policy being too

18:03

tight. Now, my concern is that if we

18:05

don't continue cutting rates and do so

18:07

at a reasonably quick pace that monetary

18:10

policy will nip all those positive

18:11

developments in the bud and we will not

18:13

get the recovery in the labor market

18:14

that I think that that I think that is

18:16

appropriate.

18:16

>> Yeah, I actually totally agree with him.

18:18

I think he's right. I think if you want

18:21

to hope that we're going to have a labor

18:22

market recovery in 26, you need to cut

18:24

rates. But I'm not like 25 bips ain't

18:26

going to make a difference. You know,

18:28

you probably have to go more aggressive.

18:29

And I think Hasset, we're probably going

18:32

to end the year next year at way lower

18:34

rates.

18:34

>> Yeah.

18:34

>> Well, you make a really good point in

18:36

terms of the expensing because that is

18:38

going to dictate decisions on the part

18:41

of corporate managers. If they're able

18:43

to expense things, well then maybe they

18:45

will hire more. Maybe they will invest

18:47

more in their businesses. And we'll see

18:49

that as a result of the big beautiful

18:50

bill in 26.

18:52

>> Well, we we we may if monetary policy

18:54

doesn't get in the way. Now, I think

18:55

it's really important to understand that

18:57

if you push out the supply side of the

18:59

economy, that is all else equal

19:00

disinflationary. And when you think

19:02

about sort of things like losing

19:03

loosening regulations or or capital

19:05

deepening the economy that allows you to

19:06

produce more with less, those are things

19:08

that push out the supply side of the

19:09

economy. And in my mind, uh you know,

19:11

pushing out the supply side of the

19:12

economy means that you can accommodate

19:14

lower interest rates. Well, tell me

19:15

about the the

19:18

>> in English. If we increase the supply of

19:21

goods that we, you know, can manufacture

19:24

or provide, then we have to be less

19:26

worried about inflation. And because we

19:27

have to be less worried about inflation,

19:28

we can cut rates more aggressively. Are

19:30

you still waiting on sort of

19:32

expectations for the year? But what are

19:34

because we're going to have a new

19:35

chairman of the Fed and we expect that

19:38

you will have sort of a leaning toward

19:40

lowered rates, but are you talking about

19:42

a potential string of rate cuts in 26 or

19:44

are you talking about 50 basis point?

19:47

Oh, it's going to depend on the data

19:49

>> take to the sidelines next year. Well,

19:51

so my view is it's appropriate to get to

19:53

neutral rather quickly and I've been

19:54

very clear about that and and I thought

19:56

that was appropriate in in a series of

19:57

50 basis point cuts. As we've been

19:59

making progress, it becomes a little bit

20:01

less urgent to get to to move in in such

20:03

outsized moves because we have been

20:05

making some progress bringing interest

20:06

rates down. Um the big difference

20:08

between myself and I think where the

20:10

bulk of the committee is is not

20:11

necessarily on what the end destination

20:13

is. I think a lot of people, if you look

20:15

at where their where their projections

20:17

for the economy go in what we call the

20:18

dots, they have us getting towards

20:21

neutral rates. It's just over the

20:22

question of how quickly we get there.

20:24

And I want to get there rather quickly

20:25

because I don't see an inflation

20:26

problem. I do see potential risks to the

20:28

labor market. And many of my colleagues

20:30

sort of see the other, you know, see the

20:32

other way around where they do see

20:33

inflation problems. In my mind, almost

20:36

all of the inflation excess is is a

20:38

mirage. It's due to it's due to supply

20:41

demand imbalances in the housing market

20:43

that

20:43

>> almost all of the inflation excess is a

20:46

mirage. You know, still talking about

20:48

that lagging or lingering uh real estate

20:51

impact. Let's uh fast forward a little

20:53

bit here.

20:53

>> Supply demand imbalances from 3 years

20:54

ago.

20:55

>> Really really to to sell the securities

20:57

because takes a really long time to roll

20:59

down. At some point in the future,

21:01

>> mortgage back securities,

21:02

>> deposit redemptions, deposit flight, you

21:04

need to hold reserves against those. So

21:06

we tell the banks that they have to hold

21:08

reserves. That creates a minimum level

21:10

of reserves that the banking system

21:12

needs because if the banking system

21:13

doesn't

21:13

>> we know they want the Fed to have

21:15

reserves. Fine. Okay. So we get the

21:17

idea. My wants cuts. Hasset is going to

21:21

be the enabler of that. Trump knows

21:24

that. And it's it's like honestly if I

21:27

were Trump, Hasset is probably the

21:29

person that I would pick as well. Now my

21:32

goes on to talk about tariffs and how

21:34

Trump says, "Hey, we shouldn't, you

21:36

know, uh cut tariffs uh or or um uh you

21:40

know, ban tariffs with the Supreme

21:42

Court." All that speculation. What

21:44

matters right now is that Hasset is

21:46

probably going to continue to be seen as

21:48

bullish. It gives us nice green push in

21:51

markets. You're seeing it continue. What

21:53

a surprise. Seeing it continue because

21:55

this news is circulating. Oh, sweet.

21:58

We're going to get those rate cuts.

22:00

We're going to get a wet blanket.

22:02

Perfect. It It is what the economy

22:04

needs. So, it is actually a good thing,

22:07

especially in the wake of uh that ADP

22:09

data this morning and that softer retail

22:11

sales data. Now, the question is, can we

22:14

round out? That's going to be where, you

22:17

know, we hold our breath and say, okay,

22:18

well, you know, hopefully we round out

22:20

layoffs at Apple. Little abnormal to see

22:23

that. You know, you've got Jay Clayton,

22:25

who was uh Donald Trump's prior SEC

22:28

chair, saying that there's some funky

22:30

vehicletovehicle financing going on in

22:33

private credit that's leading to what he

22:35

calls Mark 2 myth, which is just

22:37

basically a way of saying that, you

22:39

know, you're seeing these private credit

22:42

funds that aren't actually being honest

22:43

about their losses. You've got another

22:46

uh Valley City furniture company here

22:48

that went bankrupt uh in Columbus, Ohio,

22:51

which if you look at uh if you go to,

22:54

you know, this is our stock tab in the

22:57

um uh what's it called? This is our

22:59

stock tab in the uh for course members.

23:02

And if I go to Restoration Hardware

23:05

here, RH

23:07

uh and this is only available to course

23:09

members in the Meet Kevin app. But you

23:11

can see here that the CEO of Restoration

23:13

Hardware says uh a lot of people are

23:16

going to close. A lot of jobs are going

23:18

to be lost in the furniture space. Well,

23:20

it's exactly what's happening here. It's

23:23

not a surprise that you're still seeing

23:26

pain in the underlying economy. You're

23:28

going to see that for a while. And

23:30

that's why Hasset's probably a good

23:32

choice uh for getting the rate cuts.

23:35

Again, I I don't think he's going to be

23:37

the greatest economist,

23:39

but he's going to do what needs to be

23:40

done for the economy. The risk, and this

23:43

is the part that is harder to evaluate,

23:46

the risk is when you have somebody who's

23:48

a wet blanket that the Fed, they're more

23:51

likely to pull off an Arthur Burns, and

23:54

this is the risk factor. This is very,

23:55

very long-term. Okay, this is why we're

23:58

keeping this at the end of the segment.

23:59

Most people aren't going to care about

24:00

this because in the near term, this is

24:02

just bullish. Uh in the face of, as even

24:04

CNBC reports this morning, a cyclical

24:07

weakening of the labor market. You have

24:09

to know that in the long term, if you

24:12

have a wet blanket as Fed chair,

24:13

somebody with no balls, you risk having

24:16

an Arthur Burn situation in the 1970s.

24:18

That's basically where the Fed had no

24:21

balls. They vacasillated with every

24:23

single data point, no solid forward

24:26

guidance, no mantra, no, you know,

24:28

targets, no goals, and they just changed

24:31

their mind every meeting.

24:33

And so what you ended up getting was

24:36

massive inflation. Massive inflation

24:38

that ended up having to be broken by

24:41

Paul Vulkar uh in the 82 and 80 double

24:45

dip recession. You had a double

24:47

recession at 80 and 82 because of the

24:50

failures of the Fed. uh in the 70s and

24:52

then of course the price controls at the

24:54

beginning of the 70s which which were uh

24:56

you know just basically pent up

24:57

inflation uh and and prevented us from

25:00

actually realizing the inflation until

25:02

they removed the price controls then

25:03

prices skyrocket and you have a Fed that

25:05

vacasillates all over the place and so

25:07

there is a an ironic good right now in

25:11

having a weak Fed chair pump markets

25:14

good for the short term the long term is

25:16

bad because you get somebody who might

25:19

not end up fighting inflation when we

25:22

need it because that is the risk factor

25:24

is we get to do is some sort of

25:26

weakening, we get money printing and

25:28

then we go right back to sty checks or

25:30

some kind of crazy, you know, whatever

25:33

uh uh fiscal stimulus

25:36

and we reignite the very inflation that

25:38

we've been trying to fight for 5 years.

25:41

That's a longer term risk, not a

25:44

near-term risk. Uh, a more near-term

25:46

risk is stuff like what the information

25:48

is reporting that Oracle linked

25:49

borrowing binge worries lenders. So,

25:53

construction loans are famous for

25:55

getting rugpulled. And here they talk

25:57

about a flood of new debt helping build

25:59

data centers, debt back maturity

26:01

facilities, construction lending. Here

26:03

it is. Construction lending could become

26:06

a bottleneck if stocks keep falling,

26:10

which fortunately right now under this

26:11

Hasset news they're pumping. But if

26:13

stocks return to a falling uh sort of

26:18

theme, you know, like Oracle, look at

26:20

Oracle's movement straight down since we

26:22

reported on it. I mean, we talked about

26:24

this in the alpha report, too. We

26:27

analyzed this on this channel. We

26:29

analyzed Oracle on earnings day right

26:31

here. It's down almost half now. It's

26:35

down like 45% or something like that. Uh

26:38

because we looked at the financials,

26:39

we're like, "This is a terrible balance

26:40

sheet. This is not good." And as soon as

26:43

the construction lenders wake up and

26:44

realize, oh my gosh, we are lending into

26:47

a bubble, they stop lending. The private

26:49

credit liquidity concerns don't help. Uh

26:51

and unfortunately, it likely aggravates

26:55

uh the uh the sell-off that we've seen

26:57

over the last uh 3 weeks. So hopefully

26:59

not. Hopefully not. Hopefully we could

27:01

maintain a nice bounce here. I would

27:03

like to see my test. Okay. I would like

27:05

to see AMD hold 200. Otherwise, Google

27:08

is going to do the same thing that AMD

27:10

did here. That's a real risk factor that

27:13

you get Google rocket like this just

27:15

like AMD did when people got excited

27:17

that it's the next Nvidia and then it

27:19

just curves right back down. That is a

27:22

risk factor for markets. Another risk

27:24

factor for markets is that you get an

27:25

end of the day sell off or even tomorrow

27:27

morning sell off on Nvidia. we get back

27:29

to 164 on Nvidia

27:33

and that drives down the likes of Super

27:35

Micro, Vertive, Dell, uh you know,

27:39

Corewave, Iren, the whole stack and

27:42

that's when people get nervous about

27:44

lending. So that's see like I

27:47

stabilizing here above the 100 DMA.

27:49

Fine. It's still just back to September

27:51

pricing, right? But if IRE races and we

27:54

fall back down to the 200 DMA, which is

27:56

the $23 level, which it probably will if

27:59

this cycle continues of uh liquidity

28:02

concerns, then um then lending is going

28:05

to seize up very quickly. And and that's

28:07

pay attention to lending seizing up. If

28:09

there's if you want a red flag for when

28:12

to run for the cover or run for the

28:13

exits, look for articles that start

28:16

coming out talking about lending seizing

28:19

up. We're not there yet. See,

28:21

construction lending could become a

28:23

bottleneck. Who's a big construction

28:25

lender? Oh, they said it in here. Let me

28:28

find it. JP Morgan. There it is. See,

28:30

developers have outlined plans this year

28:32

for data centers, quadrupling from last

28:35

year, according to JP Morg, there it is.

28:38

Uh, construction loans made to

28:40

developers working with Oracle are JP

28:43

Morgan and Japan's.

28:48

Okay. So what happens when JP Morgan rug

28:51

rugpulls?

28:53

Just go back to the day Charlie Kirk

28:55

diedricolor

28:57

collapses because JP Morgan rugpulls a

29:01

$700 million line of credit. When we

29:03

talked about this earlier in our live

29:05

stream, you know what people told me

29:07

that Jaime Diamond was? They said Jaime

29:10

Diamond is basically like cuz he's

29:13

warning everybody about cockroaches,

29:15

right? Well, people told me that this is

29:17

Jaime Diamond. Leaked footage right here

29:19

of Jaime Diamond from Men in Black. Will

29:22

Smith encounters Jaime Diamond

29:25

who ends up wearing a normal person's

29:28

clothes and he's actually just a giant

29:31

cockroach.

29:33

It's exceptionally disgusting. And even

29:35

Will Smith is like, "Yo, what the hell?

29:38

You were the scammer all along, dog.

29:43

[laughter]

29:45

Uh yeah, the O face. [laughter]

29:50

Um yeah, that

29:54

those are the warnings to watch for. JP

29:57

Morgan moves from rugpulling private

30:00

credit and auto lenders to rug pulling

30:03

the data centers. When that starts

30:05

happening, it's over because you're even

30:06

seeing if it here, look, one of the

30:08

three major rating agencies. Now, it

30:11

doesn't matter because right now

30:13

everything is fine because the rating

30:15

agencies have decided, you know what,

30:16

we're going to use smaller rating

30:18

agencies. We don't need to use one of

30:20

the big rating agencies. We'll use the

30:22

smaller rating agencies. Last week

30:24

warned that large cloud c contracts from

30:27

AI companies, including OpenAI, are

30:29

causing heightened customer

30:31

concentration and counterparty risk for

30:33

dead investors. Fitch is literally

30:37

sending up the warning flags. That's not

30:39

good. That's not good. That's not good.

30:42

Once that rolls over, it's bad. Now,

30:45

somebody left this facicious comment

30:47

yesterday. I think they were just poking

30:48

fun at me. They're like, "Kevin, you

30:50

know, you're you're warning about this

30:51

like AI bubble and chips, but you're you

30:53

know, you're you're talking about

30:54

launching this AI app for for uh house."

30:57

And it's true, but to me, those things

31:01

are different. Of course, I feel that

31:03

way. Oh, look. This is cool. Look at

31:05

this. Look at this beautiful picture.

31:06

So, uh, this is our, uh, like an example

31:09

of of what we're what we're working is,

31:12

uh, scoring properties with labels. And

31:16

so, we actually think, you know, we're

31:17

not investing in data centers or or

31:20

like, you know, the what what I think is

31:21

the bubbly part. We're looking for

31:23

actual productivity where where we could

31:25

say over time, hey, you know, here's an

31:28

app where uh if you're looking for real

31:31

estate in whatever zip code or whatever

31:34

you're looking in, you're able to find a

31:37

deal based on how much it changes your

31:40

net worth. Right? That's the goal is

31:42

that it shows you, hey, here's a deal

31:45

that's a bad deal. It's minus $90,000 of

31:48

your net worth. Here's a deal that's a

31:50

good deal. it could increase your net

31:51

worth by $150,000 or whatever. Uh and

31:54

you know, here's here's just an example

31:56

of of what we're building out, right?

31:57

Like avoid the deal. Uh uh you know,

32:00

good deal, fair deal, what whatever,

32:03

right? Like those are the things uh

32:06

that,

32:08

you know, I think is part of the future

32:09

of productivity of of how people can

32:11

actually build wealth. And I'm not

32:13

trying to shill the startup house hack.

32:16

uh you know, we're we're just now

32:17

working on redesigning our our website

32:19

to put some more colors in uh for um uh

32:23

or or some more designs in for our AI,

32:26

which I'm really excited about because

32:28

we're going to launch that AI service.

32:30

Uh but uh to me it's just a tool that

32:32

we've been using for years on on like

32:36

how we prioritize deals and we can now

32:38

nationwide

32:40

uh look for deals in any zip code and go

32:43

all right well instead of looking at a

32:44

100 listings in every area we're going

32:46

to prioritize by the zip code uh and

32:48

it'll guide us. Like to me that's actual

32:50

productivity AI and everybody knows that

32:53

AI has been a boost to people's

32:54

productivity. There's no question about

32:56

that. The question, the problem is at

32:59

what point have we overbuilt data

33:01

centers by commoditizing LLMs and not

33:04

just like productive AI products that

33:07

actually help us unlock more time in our

33:10

day. Uh those are great. You know,

33:13

that's the next phase of AI. We think

33:15

we're on the next frontier of AI, the

33:19

okay, where are companies that are

33:20

actually generating value, right? Uh but

33:23

uh but the data center boom has real

33:26

risks. And the fact that Fitch is now

33:28

warning, hey, you know, JP Morgan's

33:31

lending into a bubble, it's just going

33:33

to be a matter of time before the

33:35

cockroach Jaime Diamond turns around and

33:37

says, uh yeah, you know what? We're done

33:38

lending to data centers. And if Jaime

33:40

Diamond stops lending to data centers,

33:42

do you think the smaller lenders are

33:43

going to lend to the data centers?

33:45

That's the oopsy dupsies. So anyway, uh

33:49

somebody here in the chats writes soft

33:51

lending maybe. Well, that's the hope.

33:52

See, my hope is that we can soft land.

33:56

We soft land in uh 26 and our house hack

34:02

AI blows up and then we can IPO at the

34:04

beginning of 27. Obviously, no

34:06

guarantees. It's not a solicitation. You

34:08

know, read the disclosures at house

34:09

hack.com or whatever. Uh but that's my

34:11

hope and my dream. I don't want a

34:13

recession, but I'm also very well aware

34:15

that we are a teeter totter away from

34:16

recession. That's why we don't have any

34:18

debt. uh you know no bank debt uh at the

34:21

company. I don't have any personal debt

34:25

and I think it's wise to be cautiously

34:29

optimistic in this in in in you know

34:32

this macro world that we're in. H it's

34:34

good for for like shill you know run the

34:37

printer that's good and it's it's led to

34:39

a nice pump in the stock market today

34:42

but is it going to be enough or is it

34:43

going to be too little too late? Look at

34:45

what's doing really well right now.

34:46

Mortgage plays. You know, guess who's

34:48

been bullish? Mortgage mortgage place.

34:51

Uh I have a list of top 10 stocks to buy

34:53

over the next 10 years in our alpha

34:55

report that you can get over at

34:56

mekevin.com.

34:58

And uh

35:00

yeah, let's just say uh Rocket Mortgage

35:03

uh might might be one of them. Uh yeah.

35:07

Anyway, we're also it's not on the

35:09

website yet, but we're releasing uh a uh

35:12

a ninth course by the way. Uh it is uh

35:15

going to be totally included. Maybe we

35:16

can get that beamed up now. Uh just so

35:18

you can see the teaser of it. Uh also,

35:22

uh post MK website.

35:25

Um

35:27

anyway, so

35:30

yeah, it'd be nice to show that because

35:31

it's going to be a ninth course. It's

35:33

going to be totally free for existing

35:34

members. Anybody in the Meet Kevin

35:35

membership, that'll be totally free,

35:37

which I think is uh is very cool. Um so

35:41

yeah,

35:44

there you have it. All right.

35:45

>> Why not advertise these things that you

35:47

told us here? I feel like nobody else

35:49

knows about this.

35:49

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

35:51

see how it goes.

35:52

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

35:53

much. People love you. People look up to

35:55

you.

35:55

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

35:57

and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great

35:59

to get your take.

UNLOCK MORE

Sign up free to access premium features

INTERACTIVE VIEWER

Watch the video with synced subtitles, adjustable overlay, and full playback control.

SIGN UP FREE TO UNLOCK

AI SUMMARY

Get an instant AI-generated summary of the video content, key points, and takeaways.

SIGN UP FREE TO UNLOCK

TRANSLATE

Translate the transcript to 100+ languages with one click. Download in any format.

SIGN UP FREE TO UNLOCK

MIND MAP

Visualize the transcript as an interactive mind map. Understand structure at a glance.

SIGN UP FREE TO UNLOCK

CHAT WITH TRANSCRIPT

Ask questions about the video content. Get answers powered by AI directly from the transcript.

SIGN UP FREE TO UNLOCK

GET MORE FROM YOUR TRANSCRIPTS

Sign up for free and unlock interactive viewer, AI summaries, translations, mind maps, and more. No credit card required.