**BIG TARIFF NEWS on China Deal** Trump / Bessent

Hey, so this news just broke about

Bessant and I think this is actually a

big deal. Markets seem to be excited

about this as well. US Treasury

Secretary Scott Bessant told a closed

door investor summit Tuesday that the

tariff a tariff standoff with China is

unsustainable and that he expects the

situation to deescalate. So, this is

very good news, first of all, because as

we've been talking about almost daily on

the channel, and I I feel like some

people get mad about because they're

like, "Kevin, you're being so doomy

about this." Well, yeah, because so far

there's been no sign of negotiations,

and our economy is going to hit a wall

this summer. We're going to see empty

store shelves and a supply chain shock

that was worse than what we saw during

CO. And that's not being hyperbolic.

That's just what happens when you shut

down economic trade with, you know, our

third largest trading partner. It's not

good. So this this is good because it's

an acknowledgment by Bessant that hey we

are in a situation that is not

sustainable. We can't let this keep

going on. Christine Lagod just this

morning she suggested hey you know we we

expect negotiations to take 75 to 90

days and you know hopefully some form of

a deal is negotiated by that period of

time but we need a deal that we could

stick to so that way things don't change

the very week after we strike a deal

basically saying hey we we can't really

make deals off flip-flopping we need

like some consistency here which is a

bit of a slam on Trump but then again

this could be deemed the art of the

negotiation that said essent added that

negotiations haven't started but a deal

is possible. So, this is kind of like

good news, bad news, right? Because on

one hand, it's sort of like, all right,

like Bessant realizes we can't keep this

crap going. This is terrible. Like, we

need to end this. Uh, and then what

happens? We get uh this this sort of

followup with, but we haven't really

started negotiation yet. Fine. At least

it shows that Bessant is inside the

Trump administration realizing the

gravity of the situation, which in

itself is bullish because it finally

means maybe somebody's waking up to the

fact that hey, like we could be creating

a man-made self-induced recession here.

Now, some recessionary conditions

already existed obviously before the

Trump administration, but Donald Trump

has certainly added fuel to the fire.

And when we look at the 210 spread, I

think this is also very important to

consider. The 210 spread, it's still

sitting at 59 right now. So, it's down,

but it's been down this morning. Uh, and

so, you know, we're we we're coming back

up. Yesterday, obviously was a little

bit of a poopy dupy day. Uh, which

interestingly, yesterday, uh, for the

alpha report, it's worth you seeing it.

Take a look on screen here. Yesterday on

the alpha report, I wrote IMO green

candle to 438.90

uh but then rejecting down to 435 or

worse 431. That was in the alpha report

yesterday and it's remarkable because I

send that I send the alpha report every

day before the market opens and we

literally green candled to that 438.90

line as we lost 435 went down to 431. It

was just remarkable on the forecast. Uh,

and today we were not bearish like we

were yesterday. And the reason I say

these things in the alpha reports, just

so you could kind of think about it as

well, is this morning we went into the

day we're like, okay, we we had our

Powell bashing over the weekend and we

had our negative trade news with Japan

over the weekend. We didn't actually

have any more negative news yesterday

other than, you know, again, Powell

bashing, but that's old news at this

point. Japan leaving without a trade

deal was bad news.

today. This is good news. We're not

actually hearing more negativity on

tariffs. We're finally getting some

positivity, which is good and hopefully

breaks the sort of downtrend that now

the NASDAQ is on. Uh, you know, we had

this beautiful, beautiful Nike swoosh

recovery uh in the NASDAQ. Uh, and you

could see this since 2022 just by

looking on screen here. Beautiful Nike

swoosh. We kind of cleaned up the line a

little bit to show it more clearly.

Mostly because I had these lines

extended a little bit further just to

finish showing like the Nike swoosh

happened the way we thought it would in

2022 when everybody thought we were

crazy here. Now, yeah, did we think it

was going to get this euphoric? No. I

mean, we certainly way overextended by

the election, but we want to break this

downtrend now because this downtrend

that we're on right now is not an ideal

downtrend. So, we need more sustained

bounces. And it's good right now that

we're bouncing before hitting a lower

low. But anyway, back to the news. So,

number one, closed door investor summit

Tuesday. This is how all the insiders

get all the insider information. It's

probably why stocks are rallying and

started rallying before we the normies

got to hear about the news. In fairness,

one of the things I was pitching this

morning in uh to course members was

coreweave like it's going to get bid up

to 40 bucks and it's up 8% right now cuz

every time it falls under 40, it gets

bid back up towards 40. It opened at

like 35 this morning. It's been up

basically all day long. Anyway, you know

this, you could join the meet Kevin

membership and get the sort of daily

alpha every single day uh in the course

member live stream where we do where we

react to this data and information

before the market opens uh and as the

market opens. This morning, by the way,

we also reviewed the uh Philly Fed and

Richmond Fed data. I mean, honestly, it

shouldn't be a surprise at this point. I

don't I don't want to like belabor that

the numbers are bad, but the Federal

Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the

services side, this is not a surprise,

continued to decline this month. It came

in worse than expected. Sales revenues

expected to be negative. And this is

important to pay attention to two things

here. One, firms continue to report

overall declines in full-time

employment. Bad. That's bad. We don't

want the jobs hit. And then this is why

I always say companies take it in the

margin. They don't have pricing power.

the prices paid index rose again while

prices received fell to essentially

zero. In other words, they're paying

more for their costs. Costs are going

up, but they're receiving less. And you

saw a very similar kind of negative

outlook on the uh regional uh uh

Richmond Fed read with activity for

slowing further in April, local business

conditions dropping, business conditions

falling notably, new orders falling

considerably, blah blah blah. Prices

paid increased notably while prices

received increased only somewhat which

is again that divergence between

companies basically taking to the

margin. So anyway, back to the spe

thing. Treasury Department didn't

immediately respond to a request for

comment. The Treasury chief spoke on the

sidelines of the IMF and World Bank

spring meetings as finance ministers and

central bankers gathered to assess the

fallout of Trump's trade war. Besson

also said the world's top two countries

essentially have a trade embargo in

place, slapping tariffs on more than 125

on each side. That's right. That's

exactly why I'm talking about how we're

basically shutting down trade. Like

Besson is correct when he says we

basically have a trade embargo in place.

We're basically saying we're not trading

with you, China. That the fact that we

have 80 blank shipments that could be

the, you know, somewhere between 640 to

800,000 containers that are not coming

to America, they're going to lead to

substantial uh inventory problems on

shelves this summer and uh and

joblessness. So, we really need to

create a trade deal before we get into

June, July, because the stock market can

actually look through some of that

near-term pain as long as there is a

solution in sight. In my opinion, every

single day that a solution is not had,

we probably just kind of continue to

trickle down uh on on stock indices,

right? And we continue to see this

frustrating sell America trade. But I'll

tell you this, I would not bet against

America. I would bet that in the long

run future, you know, we might go

through a recession between now and

then, but in the long run future,

betting on America will be the best

thing that we could do. Why not

advertise these things that you told us

here? I feel like nobody else knows

about this. We'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes.

Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you. Kevin Praat there, financial

analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always

great to get your take.