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10 Steps to EXPLODE your Wealth during the Trump CRASH.

35m 33s6,300 words896 segmentsEnglish

FULL TRANSCRIPT

0:00

hi I'm me Kevin in this video we're

0:01

going to talk about 10 things to protect

0:03

your money whether or not we're going

0:05

into an economic downturn let's get

0:08

started the very first thing that you

0:11

need to do is think about accessing

0:14

Capital while it's still possible to do

0:16

this this obviously won't apply to

0:18

everyone but about 2third of you are

0:22

homeowners now is an interesting time

0:25

even when rates are high in the near

0:27

term to potentially look into a

0:30

refinance but I want you to do something

0:32

special I want you to take negative

0:36

points now this video isn't going to be

0:39

about the real estate market but let's

0:41

give you a quick synopsis in certain

0:43

overbuilt markets especially after the

0:45

co boom we're likely going to continue

0:48

to see prices decline in some markets

0:50

for example if you look at Austin Texas

0:52

last three years year-over-year I've had

0:54

negative prices year after year that's

0:56

because we had a CO bubble overb build

0:58

over Supply all of a sudden the rush of

1:00

people moving there slowed because

1:03

others weren't squeezed out of areas

1:05

like California under you know the

1:06

extremeness of some of the lockdowns

1:08

California faced this isn't designed to

1:10

be political either it's just simply to

1:11

say the fact the Austin real estate

1:13

market has been down year-over-year for

1:15

the last three years in a row what you

1:17

want to do as even if rates are high is

1:20

consider refinancing to tap some of the

1:23

equity if you have equity in your home

1:25

so for example if your home value is

1:27

ballooned up even if you have a lower

1:30

interest rate locked in let's say if you

1:32

have a $200,000 loan locked in over here

1:35

uh and now your home is let's say Worth

1:38

or let's say it was worth $800,000 you

1:40

know whenever you got your loan it was

1:41

worth less uh and now it's come down a

1:44

little bit let's say now it's worth

1:45

$700,000 or whatever it is 620

1:49

whatever it could make sense to

1:52

refinance even though you're losing that

1:54

lower rate you could potentially access

1:56

more Capital this is going to become

1:58

very important for when we get into the

2:00

buy the dip phase because let's say you

2:02

have now $400,000 of equity that you

2:05

could access you pay off your old loan

2:08

you obviously have to make sure you can

2:09

afford the 30-year mortgage payment that

2:11

you're doing on this uh but what you've

2:13

done is you've freed up the difference

2:15

you now have access to $200,000 and more

2:18

Capital that's really important that you

2:20

don't go below that money on like an RV

2:22

or something crazy instead be ready be

2:25

prepared uh to buy the dip because

2:27

that's what we're going to talk about in

2:28

the moment as well and those could be

2:30

business opportunities they could be

2:32

stocks they could be real estate

2:33

wherever stress shows itself and as

2:36

Buffett always says wherever blood ends

2:38

up on the streets that's the time to get

2:39

greedy right but you need access to

2:42

Capital to actually do anything so what

2:44

I like to say is consider using that

2:46

piggy bank of of your home or of your

2:50

rental real estate or whatever just to

2:52

have access to Capital now again don't

2:54

blow that money that's it's very car

2:56

very dangerous to utilize your real

2:58

estate Equity because often often times

3:00

what people do is they'll pay off credit

3:01

card debt and they'll get right back

3:02

into credit card debt that's a big

3:04

mistake so you want to be careful with

3:06

what you do with this this needs to be

3:07

strategic but this video is is for

3:11

adults so what's also important is that

3:15

you take those negative points in my

3:17

opinion this is not personalized

3:18

Financial advice for you this is Broad

3:20

advice for you to consider when you talk

3:21

to your mortgage loan originator your

3:24

lender okay in English your lender when

3:26

you talk to them I want them to give you

3:29

Nega ative points as an option for you

3:33

to consider I would like negative points

3:36

and ask for menu so ask for a menu that

3:40

gives you

3:43

.5

3:45

-115 -2 uh and then dog3 okay so give

3:49

you a

3:50

menu all right why would you do negative

3:53

points first and what does this even

3:56

mean if the economy enters a downturn we

4:00

would anticipate that overtime interest

4:02

rates are going to

4:04

plummet we can't guarantee this but if

4:07

there's a downturn and you want to use

4:09

that potential capital on an opportunity

4:12

interest rates are likely to plummet

4:14

when interest rates plummet the goal

4:16

would be to refinance this debt that you

4:19

took on that $400,000 lower no

4:21

guarantees obviously if the property

4:22

values go down that could be a risk so

4:25

you want to be comfortable paying that

4:26

payment what negative points allow you

4:29

to do

4:30

is lower your closing costs now so let's

4:34

say you have closing costs of your

4:36

refinance to get that $400,000 of $8,000

4:40

now what some people will do is they'll

4:42

do what's called a rate buy down and

4:44

they're like look it's going to cost me

4:46

$88,000 to refinance uh and I'm going to

4:48

get a rate of let's say

4:50

65% so some people are like oh that's so

4:53

high so they'll actually choose to pay

4:56

$122,000 and they'll take an interest

4:58

rate of let's say

5:00

5.9% so now they feel like they got a

5:03

better deal but they spent an extra

5:06

$4,000 okay the break even on that at

5:09

minimum is going to be about 7 and 1

5:11

half years realistically the break even

5:13

on this difference over here it's

5:14

probably going to be closer to 10 to 12

5:16

years so that extra investment you're

5:18

making for the savings and the monthly

5:20

payment it's going to take quite a while

5:22

to break even not always you can do the

5:25

math yourself that's why I say get a

5:26

menu and do the math based on what you

5:28

get but here's what I like to do I

5:31

actually like to get negative points so

5:33

what I say is I don't want to pay

5:35

$88,000 I actually want you to give me

5:37

$88,000 and cover those closing costs

5:40

give me a higher interest rate so I

5:42

might go in and say give me a

5:44

74 and I want my closing cost to be zero

5:48

in other words they gave me -2 points to

5:50

cover my closing costs right that might

5:52

be the -2 option over here now all of a

5:55

sudden I have more access to Capital yes

5:58

I have a shorter term higher rate but if

6:00

the economy does end up falling which is

6:01

when I would use and deploy that Capital

6:03

anyway I should be able to refinance

6:05

again predicated on home values and you

6:08

having a job to do that so as with any

6:10

strategy there is risk and you have to

6:12

go in knowing this now another strategy

6:14

that people like to take advantage of uh

6:16

in these these environments and again

6:18

they're upsides and downsides with

6:20

everything but I like home equity lines

6:22

of credit so let's say you're in this

6:24

situation where you own a home and you

6:27

have uh a 2.9% interest rate on your

6:30

$200,000 loan and you're like Kevin I

6:32

don't want to get rid of that loan I

6:33

don't want to refinance that at higher

6:35

well okay that's smart that's logical so

6:38

what you do is let's say you have a

6:39

$200,000 loan and let's say the property

6:43

uh is worth

6:46

$800,000 uh in value so you have all

6:49

this untapped Equity right here so what

6:51

you want to do you want to hop in with a

6:54

home equity line of credit uh for let's

6:58

say you know up to 620 that'd be 80%

7:01

maybe you could get up to 90% go to a

7:02

local credit union for these by the way

7:04

usually the bigger Banks like the big

7:05

four Chase Bank of America they're not

7:07

going to have good options for this go

7:09

to the local credit unions so whatever

7:10

County you're in that County Credit

7:12

Union type that into Google you'll get

7:14

plenty of options ask them what their

7:15

HELOC programs are they'll often even

7:18

wave your first year like application

7:19

fee sometimes even they'll wave your

7:21

appraisal fee okay so you have the

7:23

difference of 80% of that so let's say

7:25

620 you have the difference of this and

7:27

this available you could get a what is

7:30

that uh

7:31

$420,000 oh that's perfect

7:33

$420,000 uh potential line of credit on

7:36

this property uh now you might be saying

7:38

yourself but Kevin interest rates on

7:40

this line of credit that's insane you

7:42

know I'm going to pay uh 10% in an

7:45

interest on this credit line that's

7:47

insane no you're not not going to use it

7:51

so take the equity line of credit

7:53

establish the

7:55

credit so money tool number two is

7:58

establish the line of credit okay number

8:01

one was negative points and and

8:03

establishing credit that way number two

8:04

is get a

8:05

helck a home equity line of credit

8:08

charges you no interest until you

8:09

actually write the check and use it

8:11

imagine that a HELOC is just like

8:12

opening or applying for a credit card it

8:14

doesn't mean you're paying 10% on the

8:16

$420,000 or 22% of your credit card just

8:18

because you opened the credit card you

8:19

haven't spent anything yet okay well

8:21

when are you going to spend something

8:23

you to spend what it makes sense to

8:25

spend you know and there's a a great

8:27

foreclosure that you know you can get a

8:29

great deal de on and and acquire or buy

8:31

a great opportunity and in business to

8:34

expand or whatever you want to home

8:37

equity line of credit to give you access

8:39

to Capital when you need it the most now

8:41

there are risks with this obviously the

8:43

rates are higher again the economy goes

8:45

into a down term these are variable so

8:48

you see what the terms of these are uh

8:50

they're usually a 10-year term uh and

8:52

then they go into a 20-year fix

8:55

thereafter so they're variable for 10

8:57

years you could draw on it you could pay

8:58

it down draw on it pay it down down it's

8:59

like a credit card after 10 years that

9:02

goes away it locks and you repay it back

9:04

over 20 years fixed fully amortized at

9:07

that

9:08

point if you don't know what some of

9:09

these things

9:11

mean sorry the video might just be that

9:13

next level at the moment but we got to

9:15

talk about next level

9:17

Finance ask GPT about the little in

9:20

between things

9:23

so the helocs give you a tool but there

9:26

are risks associated with them mostly

9:29

that in 2008 credit lines were starting

9:32

to get Frozen they would issue credit uh

9:34

line freezes and that's because the

9:36

banks would go risk off this is another

9:38

reason why you want to start considering

9:40

establishing Credit Now establishing

9:42

loans now because credit is still

9:45

available right now sometimes in a

9:46

recession credit becomes unavailable

9:48

banks are unwilling to lend and so they

9:51

freeze lines so once you start hearing

9:53

rumors about this happening or you start

9:55

seeing some banks do it usually what

9:57

people do is they'll take that 420 or

9:59

whatever their available credit is

10:01

they'll move it into a savings account

10:04

they'll pay the bite the bullet a little

10:05

bit on the interest but they'll realize

10:07

I now have access to that Capital should

10:09

I need it as a rainy day fund basically

10:13

okay good so that's number

10:16

two now number

10:20

three is also a double-edged sword you

10:23

have to be careful about this one in

10:25

terms of how you do it um well as for

10:29

when it comes to business but that's

10:30

okay so we'll separate these you know

10:33

what we'll do number three personal and

10:34

then we'll do number four business

10:36

that's how we'll do it so the personal

10:39

one is a lot easier and this one we're

10:41

not going to spend a lot of time on

10:42

because it should be very basic okay so

10:46

delay number three is just delay do you

10:50

really need a bathroom remodel right now

10:52

do you really need a new roof right now

10:54

can you patch the roof do you really

10:56

need a new car right now can you make

10:58

yours work for a little while longer do

11:00

you really need a new washing machine

11:02

right now can you fix it I've personally

11:04

dismantled washing machines and dryers

11:06

and multiple times with a $25 part fixed

11:09

my ,000 washing machine and prevented

11:12

having to buy a new one they take time

11:15

but they're kind of like weekend warrior

11:16

projects anyway I find them kind of fun

11:19

so I'm a big fan of delaying Capital

11:21

expenditures for as long as you can in

11:23

more uncertain times so that way you can

11:25

build up cash reserves that's very

11:27

important so big fan of this all right

11:29

that was more obvious the uh number four

11:32

version is the business version of this

11:35

now this is more

11:36

challenging because uh the easy the

11:39

easiest way to explain this one is uh

11:42

through an anal or a little story uh I

11:45

don't know if it's true or not but it's

11:46

just a it's it's very functional it'll

11:49

really explain this one

11:50

well uh college educated son goes to his

11:54

father and says father father we're

11:56

going into a recession and the father

11:59

owns a um uh a you know knick-knack

12:02

store on let's say you know Route 66 or

12:06

whatever and uh they have a sign a giant

12:09

billboard on the side of the highway so

12:12

you know here's the highway and uh

12:15

they've got a giant billboard over here

12:17

and we'll call it uh some store we'll

12:19

call it Nicks uh knicknacks okay cool

12:23

and uh it's that way you know two miles

12:27

is what the sign says there fig your

12:29

sign all right cool so College Educators

12:32

father father we're going into a

12:33

recession you know we we need to be

12:35

careful like we should we should you cut

12:37

spending at the business business is

12:40

over here this is where Nick sells his

12:42

um you know

12:44

knickknacks father says oh my gosh son

12:47

like all these reports this you're right

12:49

like we we should cut our spending my

12:51

goodness you know you know what cost us

12:53

a lot of money every month that damn

12:56

billboard let's uh let's cut the expense

12:58

on this this and uh let's let's you know

13:02

get ready for for a potential recession

13:05

uh and uh all of a

13:07

sudden people don't know about Nick

13:09

knicknacks anymore and oh my gosh my

13:13

sales are plummeting what is going on

13:16

says Nick Nick is very

13:18

sad my goodness son you were right A

13:21

recession is

13:23

coming meanwhile the Billboard's empty

13:25

nobody knows about a store right so on

13:27

the business side there's a complexity

13:29

when it comes to cutting of cutting like

13:33

you know cutting off the hand that feeds

13:35

you so to speak so you have to be very

13:37

careful there's a lot of nuance that

13:38

goes into the business side but uh there

13:40

are often things that you know on a

13:43

macro basis could be considered for

13:46

delay or Cuts usually what businesses do

13:50

uh is they will delay risky Capital

13:53

expenditures right so let's take my real

13:56

estate company for a moment uh house

13:58

hack it's real a company if you're an

14:00

accredited investor you can invest in it

14:01

this isn't a solicitation for it and if

14:03

you're not accredited we have a a non-

14:04

accredited round coming soon we're

14:07

advertising bonds at 5% and they convert

14:09

into stock if the value of the company

14:11

goes up blah blah blah more details on

14:13

that different video different topic

14:14

this isn't place for it but what we've

14:17

done is you know we've realized we have

14:19

many options to rapidly uh expand the

14:21

business in uh in potentially slightly

14:25

more risk on moves uh and for us like

14:29

for example certain types of lending uh

14:32

real estate related or you know ftech

14:34

style lending in places where it doesn't

14:36

exist in the real estate market based on

14:38

equity and homes Beyond what's available

14:41

with traditional

14:42

lenders going into a recession uh that

14:45

last portion of equity is the most

14:47

uncertain in a property and that is the

14:50

greatest risk so it might make more

14:52

sense to delay uh risky allocations of

14:56

capital like that in addition businesses

14:59

usually will cut extraneous staff again

15:04

you don't want to cut the hand that

15:05

feeds you but extraneous staff where

15:08

where projects can be handled inside

15:10

that are great enough to handle uh the

15:13

progression of the business but

15:14

extraneous staff for potentially those

15:17

expansionary projects or hey you might

15:20

be useful one day those are the first

15:23

sets of staff to unfortunately get laid

15:25

off the earlier businesses do this the

15:29

more Capital those businesses preserve

15:31

the more insulated they are going into a

15:34

potential uh risk on environment and the

15:36

more at a more opportune time they are

15:40

able to deploy into that risky uh you

15:43

know riskier move which could be a big

15:44

growth move for the company like oh

15:46

maybe maybe Nick snck Knack is like you

15:48

know what we're going to invest into

15:50

making this an electronic billboard

15:53

right so let's say it was a regular text

15:56

textual sort of paper cardboard

15:58

billboard if you will a painted

16:00

billboard

16:01

whatever uh maybe they want to invest

16:03

into an electronic one well this is the

16:06

paper one is probably good enough right

16:08

now because the electronic one comes

16:10

with risk you know you might convert 100

16:12

cars on the metal one how many cars are

16:15

you going to convert on the electric one

16:17

well we don't know that's a question

16:18

mark you could convert 200 cars but you

16:21

could also convert 50 cars so there is

16:25

risk in in something that seems like it

16:27

would be a Strategic investment

16:29

but usually companies during uncertain

16:31

Economic Times say let's not explore

16:34

what that question mark is because we

16:36

have less capability in a recessionary

16:38

time to handle the potential negative

16:41

externalities of a of the downside risks

16:43

of this that we're unaware of you know

16:45

hindsight is 2020 but when you're making

16:47

decisions for the future it's very

16:49

difficult to say oh yeah with certainty

16:51

X will happen nobody knows with

16:53

certainty what is going to happen so

16:55

delaying risk staff layoffs extremely uh

16:59

so uh the we talked about the ad risk

17:03

okay good so that's that's enough on Biz

17:06

let's now talk about a number five okay

17:11

so number five has to do with your

17:15

personal Credit Now personal credit is

17:17

very interesting I recommend if you

17:19

don't already have this you know you

17:22

should know what your credit is download

17:23

an app like credit card it's is not

17:25

sponsored uh or or whatever you know

17:27

there are plenty of apps that like let

17:29

you check your credit and uh go in the

17:31

App Store uh download some form of app

17:35

uh and figure out what your credit is

17:38

and then what I want you to do is I want

17:40

you maybe after you establish your

17:42

credit but I'd rather you do it now

17:44

because you could always unfreeze what I

17:45

want you to do is I want you to freeze

17:46

your credit the worst thing that could

17:49

happen to you is there's a downturn in

17:52

the economy and then all of a sudden you

17:55

lose your job you're trying to get a new

17:56

job and they run your credit for your

17:58

job and your credit score is 400 because

18:00

somebody stole your identity and oopsy

18:04

dupsies now you don't get the job or you

18:07

can't get the loan or you can't start

18:09

your business at the most opportunity

18:11

time to do it because you know somebody

18:12

hacked your identity everybody has your

18:14

social security number and date of birth

18:16

already they're on the black market

18:17

they're available you're just waiting

18:19

for that scumbag to go into Macy's open

18:21

a credit card using a fake driver's

18:23

license with their picture on it and

18:25

your name and date of birth on it and

18:27

then they type in your social number

18:29

into the little pin pad and boom they

18:30

steal your credit racking up thousands

18:32

of dollars of expenses at you know Mac's

18:34

or wherever and you don't even know

18:35

about it it's how easy it is to seal

18:37

your

18:38

credit I want you to know that this is

18:40

free okay you do not need to I mean you

18:44

can uh but there are plenty of companies

18:47

that offer these credit lock features

18:50

and you have to be careful there's a lot

18:51

of branding around this they try to sell

18:52

you $30 monitoring Services a lot of

18:55

these monitoring services are really

18:56

just insurance and they say if your

18:59

credit gets ruined will help you pay out

19:01

some money to you and try to get back on

19:03

your feet good luck it takes forever to

19:05

get the claims done and all this it's

19:07

better when that scumbag goes into

19:10

Macy's and steals her credit I don't

19:12

really want to deal with monitoring

19:14

where somebody's going your credit was

19:15

just stolen thanks bro and I don't

19:17

really want to deal with an insurance

19:18

company going hey I got robbed here

19:20

insurance will you pay out on this well

19:22

you know on Section 72 of our terms and

19:25

conditions and and I just don't want to

19:27

deal with that headache I I'd rather

19:29

some scumbag go into

19:30

Macy's and they try to put my credit uh

19:33

number in and my name or their name my

19:35

date of birth or whatever and social

19:37

number and Macy's runs my credit and it

19:40

comes back

19:42

0000 okay my credit comes back 0000

19:46

they're not going to issue me credit at

19:47

Macy's and that's exactly what a credit

19:49

freeze

19:51

does now these are now uh by law

19:54

mandated to be free uh so they are free

19:57

credit freezes uh I'll just use these as

20:00

bullet points now uh what you're going

20:01

to Google is you're going to Google

20:04

Experian credit freeze uh eifax credit

20:08

free and

20:10

Transunion credit frees they're free you

20:14

should do it now because otherwise

20:15

you'll never do it if you're anything

20:17

like me you'll never do it unless you do

20:18

it right now Google these Google credit

20:21

free and then here's what you really got

20:22

to

20:23

know you can unlock it at any time it is

20:26

a little bit of a pain in the butt

20:28

because you got to get log in you got to

20:29

save your two Factor your username

20:31

password obviously save that all in a

20:33

safe place uh and to unlock it you have

20:36

to log in and press unlock and usually

20:39

what I do is a temporary unlock so it

20:40

automatically refreezes in the future so

20:42

just consider

20:44

that all right next this one's um a

20:48

little more basic but I I don't think

20:50

people really understand the risk

20:52

sometimes that they're exposed to in

20:55

jubilant markets everything goes up meme

20:58

coin

20:59

unprofitable companies profitable

21:01

companies Great companies bad companies

21:03

and everything in between everything

21:05

goes

21:07

up problem is

21:09

what what happens when it comes down and

21:12

so you really want to

21:14

drisk something to remember is

21:18

cryptocurrencies for example and this

21:19

isn't a bash on cryptocurrencies it's

21:21

just a fact have not been through what I

21:22

would consider a real recession you know

21:24

in 2020 we had a lot of pain but we got

21:27

bailed out we had a 30-day basically

21:29

recession and it was basically v-shaped

21:31

recovery right this is the most money

21:33

printing we've ever seen in the history

21:36

of money printing it was ridiculous

21:38

there'll be a lot of hesitance to this

21:39

today which actually could potentially

21:41

draw out a recession

21:46

but cryptocurrencies haven't been around

21:49

they were born out of the 2008 financial

21:50

crisis they haven't been around long

21:52

enough to prove that they could stay and

21:53

survive through a

21:55

recession uh there's a lot of risk here

21:57

mostly because money Ates it's not like

21:59

when the price of Bitcoin goes from

22:01

$100,000 to $80,000 somebody made that

22:03

$20,000 literally just evaporated Into

22:06

Thin Air just like it was created out of

22:08

thin air it disappears in thin air and

22:10

that creates um a lot of risk for you

22:12

depending on how much of your portfolio

22:14

is exposed to assets that just haven't

22:16

been tested during a recession so uh you

22:19

know this this is not anti- blockchain

22:21

you know I'm a big fan of blockchain and

22:23

and uh you know the the goal of a

22:26

decentralized common International Curr

22:31

currency but it comes with severe risk

22:34

so as uh as bluntly as we could put it

22:37

in a non-financial advice way uh

22:39

drisking is going to include uh crypto

22:43

small

22:45

caps uh you know honestly even large uh

22:48

large caps and and even uh to a lesser

22:52

extent right so I'll just put lesser

22:55

because really everything as people flow

22:57

money out of the indices large caps get

22:59

affected heavily uh but even recession

23:02

you know recession beneficiaries but

23:05

this is where there are opportunities so

23:08

an example of a recession you know

23:12

beneficiary uh in my opinion would be

23:14

something like a rocket mortgage

23:16

brilliant move to acquire uh red fin by

23:18

the way different topic or topic for a

23:20

different video but a recession

23:21

beneficiary is some a company that that

23:23

might actually do very well as a result

23:25

of of a recession uh I personally think

23:28

you know my version of this is is my own

23:30

company house Haack uh because we're you

23:34

know without any Bank debt we're primed

23:36

to take advantage of low interest rates

23:38

and really good deals in real estate but

23:41

uh a company like rocket mortgage with a

23:43

lot of high interest rate mortgages on

23:45

their books on their balance sheet I

23:47

think or even other mortgage companies I

23:49

don't it doesn't matter to me it could

23:50

be any company uh these companies will

23:53

benefit from rates coming down from ass

23:55

surgeon refinancing in my opinion yes

23:57

there will be job loss but even if we go

23:59

to 20% unemployment that's 30 million

24:01

people unemployed 30 million minus you

24:04

know about 160 Workforce you have 130

24:06

million people employed usually the

24:08

argument people make against mortgage

24:10

companies is oh but but if

24:11

unemployment's High who's going to be

24:12

able to refinance okay well if

24:14

unemployment's High you know the other

24:16

80% of people who are still employed can

24:19

refinance so so yes uh when rates come

24:22

down mortgage beneficiaries are you know

24:25

mortgage companies are beneficiaries the

24:27

downside is you could still go down in

24:30

value before you get to the market

24:32

realizing that and you get that upshot

24:35

like I kind of think about it like all

24:38

right quick

24:40

analogy when you let's say

24:44

you're sorry I'm a pilot so the jet

24:47

references and plane references if

24:49

you're you're coming into land on a

24:51

plane like a propeller plane like a

24:53

Cirrus or whatever and you you're like

24:55

crap I got to go around I have an

24:56

unstable approach and you want to go

24:59

around you hit the gas and this thing

25:01

just lifts uh and then you go you know

25:03

stay below your critical angle of attack

25:05

and get out of there all right bulk

25:07

Landing you go

25:08

around you have this instant power to

25:10

that that's not how recession

25:13

beneficiary stocks will work in my

25:15

opinion those stocks will actually move

25:17

more like a jet when it goes around so

25:21

now this is interesting and you might

25:22

not think this is how it works but it is

25:23

it's incredible with a jet if you decide

25:26

to go bulked at the same point and and

25:28

you're going to go bulked landing you

25:30

might you know try to pull up that nose

25:33

but the actual trajectory of that

25:34

plane's still going to sink probably for

25:37

another 4 seconds or so uh and then all

25:40

of a sudden you'll be able to rocket

25:42

ship

25:43

out the reason for that is there's a

25:46

massive delay in in in jet engines uh so

25:49

if you're an idle throttle and you go in

25:52

you you could literally sit there and

25:53

count to four like one two

25:57

three it's

25:59

crazy that analogy is I think useful for

26:02

this because I think that's what could

26:04

happen with a rocket mortgage where it's

26:05

like oh all stocks suck all stock sucks

26:08

all stock oh wow that company's really

26:10

benefiting and it there's like this

26:12

delay to when people realize it all

26:15

right then um as with this there's

26:19

something that I um wholeheartedly

26:24

believe in uh it is a form of drisking

26:27

but tip number this sounds basic but

26:29

people listen to this and and then they

26:31

don't listen to it because they think

26:32

it's their money they think like their

26:35

portfolio is now worth less it's not

26:37

your

26:38

money please please please please please

26:41

please please get out of

26:44

margin very dangerous realize that in

26:47

real estate home equity line a credit a

26:49

30-year fixed rate mortgage or whatever

26:50

you don't have the risk of a margin call

26:53

whereas with uh more volatile um markets

26:57

and and margin debt you have the

26:59

absolute risk of having your portfolio

27:02

liquidated at the worst possible time so

27:04

margin debt is very very very very bad

27:07

for the consumer uh in a in a rough

27:10

economy that's pretty obvious but people

27:13

still don't do it so hopefully this is

27:15

your reminder

27:17

to do it a little bit at a time you know

27:20

maybe take a little bit of money off the

27:21

table every every single day just slowly

27:23

get out of the margin H all right now uh

27:27

number eight you need to be

27:28

resistant to AI so how do you become air

27:32

resistant we have to figure out how you

27:35

can provide more value to the economy

27:37

whether that's you becoming a mortgage

27:39

lender because you know you want to be

27:40

part of that rocket ship uh it's

27:42

becoming a real estate agent an

27:43

architect an engineer a licensed

27:45

contractor uh maybe you're working at

27:47

you

27:49

know whatever I I'll use this analogy

27:52

you know and I feel very bad for people

27:54

in this situation let's say you're the

27:55

manager of a Target

27:58

and you're a mom who's 38 years old uh

28:04

single and you have two

28:07

children it's very difficult in this

28:09

situation to get ahead because you might

28:12

be paycheck to paycheck in the situation

28:14

with people helping take care of your

28:16

children while you're at work and then

28:17

you're stressed and exhausted after that

28:19

this is a very difficult situation to

28:20

get out of and it generally comes with

28:24

having to figure out how can I provide

28:26

more value to society is it going to be

28:29

you know taking my managerial

28:30

experiences and and this is a hard one

28:33

it's tough to apply for jobs in this

28:35

environment and so then you look and go

28:37

okay well if you become a real estate

28:38

agent now you literally spend no time

28:40

with your kids because now you're trying

28:41

to work nights and weekends you become a

28:43

lender same thing but you could work

28:44

from home uh you you know uh really the

28:49

best thing you could try to do is try to

28:51

look at what with your corporate

28:53

experience what are other companies

28:56

looking for is that learning sequel is

28:58

it learning some form of you know coding

29:02

management is it uh becoming a you know

29:05

chartered financial analyst I I don't

29:07

know whatever it is there's something

29:08

you can study to help you get up the

29:10

corporate ladder so you have to Leverage

29:12

The Experience you

29:13

have and take that brutal that hard time

29:17

out of your day that extra cup of coffee

29:20

uh and and really try to grind towards

29:23

how can I go from being the store

29:24

manager to a district manager to the

29:27

next it is extremely difficult to do but

29:30

you need to figure out somebody else has

29:31

that job there are requirements for that

29:33

job position figure out what those

29:35

requirements are and go get it uh but

29:38

this is true for everybody because you

29:40

have to become AI resilient you have to

29:42

figure out how can you get up the ladder

29:44

to increase the income so increasing

29:47

your resilience here is all just a

29:50

euphemism basically for you need income

29:53

up okay how do you get income up in a

29:55

recessionary time it's hard have to

29:57

figure out how to trip triple down on

29:58

the value you provide you have to figure

29:59

out how to uh increase the the uh

30:03

qualifications that you have and you're

30:05

just going to have to work more it sucks

30:07

but is the most critical time to work

30:10

harder and never give up do not give up

30:13

good uh next time we have no idea how

30:17

long this is going to take uh if there

30:19

is an economic downturn you

30:22

know may Trump could issue stimulus

30:25

checks tomorrow and cancel all tariffs

30:27

and and the market could go straight up

30:28

we have no idea what's going to happen

30:29

in the

30:30

future but if we are going to go into a

30:32

downturn it's worth noting that we have

30:35

not had uh a very long downturn um well

30:39

an extended downturn in 2008 2008

30:42

downturn was maybe 15

30:45

months uh in total uh depending on on

30:48

where you measure it from some people

30:50

like to measure it uh from January of

30:52

2008 uh to um uh March

30:58

of' 09 is how some people measure it

31:01

some people say that the true pain was

31:03

actually only August to March which if

31:06

you look at that you know this was

31:08

actually a relatively short financial

31:10

crisis uh that's what is that 4 months

31:13

plus three that's about a 7-month

31:14

financial crisis uh there an Extended

31:17

draw down like something you've had

31:20

coming out of the Great Depression you

31:22

know where where you have lost 15 years

31:24

of time or potentially more recent the

31:28

2001.com.ve

31:40

during some of these Peak levels you

31:43

didn't actually see a return of your

31:45

money not on your money of your money

31:47

for about 15 years so that's a very long

31:50

time it's a Lost Generation really if

31:52

you think about it and so I want you to

31:55

think of your staying power are in the

31:58

face of time constraints time time time

32:02

I don't think we're going to see a 2020

32:04

whenever that next time hits 2020 kind

32:07

of sort of recovery so uh recognize time

32:12

is uh is a big requirement

32:15

here uh which is challenging because we

32:18

generally expect things to happen much

32:19

more quickly and I'm a victim of that

32:21

myself uh okay so now when is the time

32:24

to actually buy the dip well the

32:27

technical bottoms uh in recessions

32:30

generally occur about 3 to 6 months

32:34

before the end of the recession all

32:38

right

32:40

so how do we understand that well the

32:44

end of

32:45

recession uh is usually let's let's say

32:48

it's here okay this is uh the actual end

32:52

I'll just label this okay end of

32:56

recession you know that's when it's

32:58

actually over typically the stock market

33:02

hits its lowest

33:04

point uh and starts recovering sort of a

33:08

v-shaped recovery if we will and usually

33:10

they go higher uh after the recessions

33:13

right so let's assume we came from

33:17

there so there you go

33:21

okay if the end of recession marker is

33:24

here the stock it's very difficult to

33:26

time but the bottom of the Market is

33:28

usually here uh and the lag between this

33:31

point and this point is generally about

33:33

3 to 6 months that's because the lowest

33:36

point in the stock market is usually

33:38

going to be at the time of most fear and

33:40

panic it's generally not when the

33:41

recession's over because the recession's

33:43

over when you're already in

33:45

recovery you when you're coming out of

33:47

that turn right uh so the bottom will

33:50

come before and one way that I think you

33:53

can measure this the bottom uh is you

33:56

could use this ticker this is no

33:58

guarantee right but use this ticker

34:02

TLT uh it is a bond ETF and uh the

34:06

maturity of these is about 25 years us

34:09

treasuries none of that matters uh like

34:13

true recession fear pricing I'm going to

34:16

give you a schedule no guarantees of

34:17

this but I would say that $100 on TLT

34:20

it's like 90 now is uh recession

34:25

fear uh

34:27

in okay recession fear priced in okay

34:31

then I would argue that uh 120 is

34:36

probably recession

34:39

pricing uh so TLT goes up when when the

34:43

economy is more poopy right Bond values

34:45

are going up as yields are coming down I

34:48

would argue that something in the range

34:52

of 140 to 160 probably aligns with the

34:58

bottom because that would be

35:00

historically this is where TLT has

35:02

peaked out uh and it is usually the sign

35:06

of complete capitulation in markets so

35:11

uh at this point at this indicator point

35:14

it may make logical sense to just buy

35:17

the dip on everything in the stock

35:18

market uh obviously no guarantees but

35:21

that would be a metric that I would look

35:23

at so there you have it uh 10 ways to

35:27

protect your wealth during the next

35:28

downturn thanks for watching

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