HOLY MOLY TESLA STOCK

Hey, quick apology. The first version of

this video uploaded as only 13 minutes

long, even though it was a 41 minute

video on Tesla. And so I started seeing

comments and people are like, "This got

cut off." And then I look and I'm like,

"No, I thought maybe it got cut off at

39 minutes." No, big mistake. My

failure. So if you watched the previous

13 minutes, fast forward to like 14

minutes because there's a lot in this

video. to give you a quick breakdown,

talk about new models from Robin, the

stock compensation plan, my thoughts on

whether the stock compensation plan is

going to pass, what it could do for the

stock in the near term, why Tesla stock

was up this high in the near term.

Obviously, we still have credit and job

risks in the economy, but outside of

those, my thoughts on Tesla stock, its

valuation, what's priced into the

valuation, Optimus revenues, and and uh

well, profits. There's a lot in here.

And yeah, of course, there's a coupon

code called Schumer CS that that's

expiring on Wednesday. Sorry for the

mistake. Fast forward like to 14 or 15

if you already watched the previous.

Well, Tesla stock is absolutely

skyrocketing today. And it's because of

what Robin just said, combined with some

concerns about robotics that Tesla is

already fighting. Look, spoiler alert.

Robin just said sneakily in a CNBC

interview, which we're going to watch

all of it, but I respect your time, so

I'm going to give you an upfront here.

She just said they've got potentially

two new models of vehicles coming out,

which remember at the beginning of this

year, we went into 2025 thinking we were

going to get new lowerc cost vehicles.

The big asterisk was, do they just mean

lowerc cost trims? like with the new

Model Y that now has has cloth seats and

they've basically just paired down the

quality of the vehicle to introduce a

lowerc cost vehicle which is not what we

want. Then of course Reuters came out

and suggested Elon Musk has quietly

killed off a $25,000 vehicle which Elon

Musk called fake news but then ended up

being true. Now it looks like as daddy's

come back, it looks like there's hope

that we're going to get new vehicles and

Robin just slipped it because now it

seems like the rumor mill is turning

that Tesla's going to bring lowerc cost

vehicles back, actually new models. And

Robin mentioning it on CNBC suggests

that aha daddy could finally be back and

we could finally be back to lowerc cost

vehicles which is helping Tesla stock

today rocket over 5.7%

just so far intraday which is absolutely

phenomenal because if you look after

earnings we actually had a perfect

bounce on the Kevin 414 line and in

addition to that perfect bounce on that

414 line this morning in pre-market

market. We had a perfect bounce right

here on the 43399

line and that was driven by commentary

around these new models and the success

of the Optimus robot. Now, where do we

sit fundamentally

and what did Robin say and what concerns

are there for Tesla and what did we hear

about in the Tesla earnings call from

Elon Musk? We have to break all of that

down and we're going to break all of

that down. I just want to mention two

things. Get that out of the way. Number

one, I just tweeted just seconds ago

here that congratulations House Hack

also now doing business as Reinvest. We

raised almost half a million dollars in

the last 36 hours. I tweeted about 14

hours ago, I tweeted, "Wow, in 24 hours

from my last video of going debtree to

invest in my startup before AI launch

IPO, we raised over well over six

figures of new investments, likely

multiple six figures as banks open

tomorrow. that has now transformed to

almost half a million dollars in just

the last 36 hours. So, as I wrote here

in the tweet or ex post, I promised to

put this to the highest and best use.

So, thank you to all those of you. If

you wanted to learn more about that,

remember this video is not a

solicitation. Just go to reinvest.co or

houseack.com. It's the same company and

you can learn about the investment and

the artificial intelligence that we are

releasing and some of our road maps for

that AI. And then also just a quick

mention for those of you looking for the

lines or my trade alerts, make sure to

check out the meet Kevin membership.

We've got the expiring coupon code

Schumer Siesta on that coming up

Wednesday. That'll be Federal Reserve

Day. Okay, so with that out of the way,

let's understand what's going on.

There's a lot of concern about hands

when it comes to robotics. Now, we've

known this for quite a while. We've been

talking about the problem with robotics

for a long time being actuators and the

actual motors. And this is exactly what

Elon echoed in the earnings call. Now,

Robin is going full steam ahead going on

CNBC interviews to talk up the dexterity

of these robots and how it's fine. We

don't have to worry about these

actuators because Ro Optimus is already

killing it.

There's an asterisk on all of this. And

I think the easiest way to think about

this is understand that today we don't

yet have robots that can do the same

thing over and over again that are

humanoids. Now, what they can do is make

for a great show. And that is a little

bit of an asterisk to the robotic

revolution, but that doesn't stop

Tesla's stock from being enthusiastic on

not just margin debts at all-time highs

now of well over 1.1 trillion historic

high that we've ever seen for margin.

Tesla is one of the largest retail held

stocks ever. It's certainly a top 10

holding of retail in total.

Robin gives us the greatest optimism

that Tesla might be ahead of the

robotics problems and this talk about

two new vehicles. Really, really

exciting. Now, in just a moment, we're

going to break down the valuation for

Tesla on a spreadsheet. But first, let's

listen to Robin's comments and we'll add

some commentary to it. Of course,

>> sitting together 10 years from now, will

we think of Tesla as a car company or

will it be a robot company? You know,

just even seeing Becky getting those

gummies, being handed the gummies by

>> Optimus is

>> being handed the gummies by Optimus.

Now, just because Sarah Eisen is into

those marijuana gummies, okay, we don't

know that they're marijuana gummies, but

doesn't actually mean that the robots

are really good at the tasks we need

robots to be good at for. See, the big

problem we face with robots isn't that

they can't be trained to do one thing

over and over again. It's that can they

do one thing over and over again without

those motors burning out. And that's

something that we haven't seen capable

yet in robotic hands. In fact, that's

exactly what Elon Musk himself

transparently talks about. Take a look

at the earnings call. Bringing Optimist

to market is an incredibly difficult

task. So, I don't want to downplay the

difficulty of Optimus. It is especially

difficult to create a hand that is

dextrous and capable, just like a human

hand. But it's more than being dextrous

and capable. Elon doesn't even talk

about the engineering challenge of being

able to replicate this over thousands of

repetitions because it's not just

creating the actuators that are in the

forearm and the muscles that control the

fingertips. It is actually having these

robots be able to do this in a way that

can fold your laundry or do your

household tasks for hours and hours in a

row. See, Elon talks about the value of

humanoids being potentially 5x that of a

human because they don't have to take

breaks. They they can literally operate

24/7. Uh which is why Elon Musk is so

optimistic uh about robots here. He

literally says if Optimus uh you know

can be manufactured at scale they could

probably achieve 5x the productivity of

a person for a year because they could

operate 24/7 and they could be plugged

in. Now there are a few things Elon's

doing here. Number one is is really

trying to project the future potential

cash flow of the business by saying hey

like these are five times more

productive so the value of an Optimus

robot is huge and he is right about

that. The risk factor number one is do

we have the battery technology? And the

answer is no. First of all, China has

most of the battery technology. Tesla

just fell out of the top 10 battery

manufacturers in the world. Most of them

are Chinese companies. Now, by saying

that you could just have the Optimus

plugged in the entire time. This is

absolutely true, by the way, for a

factory line. have regularly argued that

you could just plug these in through a

tethered environment so they don't fall

over and break uh if they accidentally

trip. Uh or I there's no reason a

humanoid robot really needs to walk

around. It's one of the reasons why I've

been so bullish on Symbotic. They're a

robot manufacturer for um forklifts,

right? Uh manufacturing robotic

manufacturer. And we've been bullish on

them since about 20 this 2182 line over

here. You know, it's more than 3x since

then. So I mean it's symbolic. Gez, it's

up 9% just today. I mean this is this

has been in our alpha reports. It's been

in our meet Kevin membership. We've been

talking about this and fundamentally

analyzing this for a while in our stock

tab uh in the uh the stocks group where

we do our fundamental analysis for

example. We regularly talk about

companies just like this. But what's

important here is that Symbotic is so

different from an from a humanoid

robotic manufacturer because they're

designing robotics that are designed for

repetitive action. What really the

humanoid

revolution is looking to do is

capitalize on our own desire not to have

to do things around our house. load the

dishwasher, fold the laundry, clean the

house, you know, babysit the child,

change the child's diaper, you know,

whatever. If we can imagine a robot

doing the boring things for us, like go

mow the grass, whatever, in sort of a

universal manner, it actually becomes a

very uh provocative investment thesis

because many of us would look and say,

"Hey, I would love to have a humanoid

robotic just do all this boring stuff

for me that could go work all the time

for me or on my behalf. It's so

provocative that of course it becomes a

naturally desirable investment

that we want to make. Tesla is basically

the biggest humanoid robotic startup.

And it's that provociveness that's

driving the stock. It's not fundamentals

right now. It's the provociveness of

wow, not only can this create massive

cash flow, but the hope that we'll have

to work less plus the technicals right

now and enthusiasm around Elon Stockcom

that and margin debt levels. That's

what's driving Tesla stock right now,

not the fundamentals. We'll look at the

fundamentals in just a moment. Recognize

also that Robin right now is on a

mission to get Elon Musk his stock comp.

So, she's going to drop nuggets that are

in favor of Elon getting his stockcom

because that's her job right now is make

sure not only she gets her stock

bonuses, but Elon gets his stock bonuses

because otherwise there's this hinted

risk that well maybe Elon's just not

going to develop humanoid robots. So, of

course, they're basically doing a road

show to get people to vote for Elon's

stock plan. The sales pitch is, hey,

sure, Elon might become a trillionaire

if he hits all these milestones, but

you'll be rich, too. You know, you'll

make a 10x on your money or whatever

you'll make on your money if you invest

in Tesla stock and we actually, you

know, achieve these goals. So, let's

listen in to some more of this pitching.

Just know this is a sales pitch for

people to vote for the stock plan.

>> Is that what it is? And and how how

close are we to true dexterity? Because,

you know, people always say that that

robots can do a lot, but they they still

can't fold laundry, for example.

>> Oh, well, Optimus can fold laundry. I've

actually was a pretty gentle grasp with

the gummies that he could have squished

once or twice.

>> Part of the road show. Oh, well, see, we

don't have dexterity problems. Our robot

can already fold laundry. Our robot can

do Right. But it can it fold laundry for

a thousand hours in a row or even 10

hours in a row? No, of course not. We're

nowhere near that. That's the big issue

with robotics today.

>> Like he did just now and went back and

picked him up. Careful. Pretty

>> gentle. Exactly. Right. So, I've been in

the lab with Optimus. He can fold

laundry. He can wipe uh the table down

really well. He can hand things to you.

You can actually shake hands with him.

um the the um

>> this is in my opinion just to be clear

that we are like so far away from

humanoid robots and and I'm not trying

to be bearish on it because it it it's

it's a future. I'm just today bullish on

robots that are just sitting like

mounted to a manufacturing surface and

robotic arms just doing stuff over and

over again, you know, the same motion

over and over again. You know, that's

where the money is. Okay, that's that's

where the big PP is right now. the

pricing power of robotics. Humanoids are

a provocative vision. They sell us hope

that we could be lazy bums and that

people will throw money at. Okay, so

like that's what this is. It's a public

startup basically for that. I mean, why

do you think there's so much talk about

the hand here? Well, I mean, frankly,

because if you want a humanoid rather

than, you know, one fixed robot, you

need uh a a hand that's not going to

burn out. You know, you need the hand to

last. Uh it's going to take a while.

>> The tactile nature of his hand is

actually really uh very good. And so,

>> I wasn't supposed to.

>> This is a direct counter, by the way, to

the Wall Street Journal article here.

see the Wall Street Journal article uh

from two days ago from Saturday. She's

basically directly responding to this.

They talk about uh the uh you know how

to replace muscle and skin with motors,

how tendons in in our body are

self-lubricating where these actuators

are not self-lubricating inside of

robots. Obviously, you could oil them

up, but how long does that last? How

well does that, you know, operate before

they burn out? And so far today, we just

don't have the technology for this. Just

like Elon Musk talks about in the

earnings call. In the earnings call, he

says, "We just don't have the supply

chain yet. There is no supply chain for

this." Now, one of the upsides is

Tesla's vertically integrated, but

that's great. You could be vertically

integrated, but if you don't have actual

products that work yet, uh then

what supply chain do you need? We don't

have a functional repeating process yet.

Again, it's hope. And so we have to sort

of ask risk some of what's being said

here that when we put it all together we

realize okay all right there there are

some issues here. This is why for

example uh Yan Lun who's who's seen as a

guy who's really smart in artificial

intelligence and sort of often very

ahead of the curve. This is why he's

sort of bearish on humanoids and LLMs as

well and he thinks there are a lot of

breakthrough revolutions that are going

to be required to actually get

somewhere. Now Tesla is working overtime

right now on the PR side both on X and

with like these CNBC interviews to

counter these Wall Street Journal

articles to counter these AI arguments

by saying oh well we can pick up gummies

we can already do laundry it's great

it's a great sales pitch I promise

though we are a very very long time away

from mass manufacturing on these and

that's not to be bearish it's great it's

bullish for Tesla stock in the short

term but let's listen into some of these

these criticisms

robotics companies that have been

created over the last few years, you

know, building humanoid robots. Okay.

The big secret of the industry is that

none of those companies has any idea how

to make those robots smart enough to be

useful or I should say smart enough to

be generally

>> it's it's not that the companies aren't

smart enough. It's we just don't have

the physical technology yet

>> useful. Okay, we can train those robots

for particular tasks uh maybe in

manufacturing and things like this. But

your domestic robot, you know, there is

a bunch of breakthroughs that need to

arrive in AI before that's possible. So

the future of a lot of those companies

essentially depends on whether we're

going to make progress, significant

progress towards those kind of world

model planning type architecture.

>> It's okay. We're not worried about

those.

>> So multiple breakthroughs required. He

doesn't directly mention the physical

breakthrough requires here. he required

here. He talks a little bit more from

the LLM side and the actual artificial

intelligence side. The hardware side is

just yet another factor where you could

see a little bit more of where he gets

stuck on the artificial intelligence is

about 12 minutes into this video. And so

let's go into here.

>> And there's about u one bite per second

going through our visual cortex through

each fiber of our uh optical nerves. And

we have two million fibers, right? So

that's about 2 megabytes per second

times 16,000 hours. It's about 10^ the

14 bytes. A 4-year-old has seen as much

data through vision as the biggest LMS,

right? On all the

>> This is a it's a great line. It's

basically what he's saying is like a

fouryear-old has as much data as our ML

LLMs are trained on today. And basically

we need so much more data that isn't

available like to understand human

intelligence and artificial general

intelligence. We're so far away from

that. I couldn't agree more with with

his analysis that like AI is great.

Artificial intelligence, I love it. I I

call it a productivity tool. Like the

way I see artificial intelligence is the

people who can weaponize artificial

intelligence will make more money. The

people who think artificial intelligence

is going to do everything for them,

they're going to get replaced. So your

junior, this is why you're seeing your

junior level, entry-level jobs in white

collar jobs, engineering, they're

getting replaced. The senior devs who

know when to use AI, they're the ones

who are actually getting paid more and

they're sticking around at companies.

You're seeing more retention at

companies of higher level individuals

and you're seeing a massive drop off a

cliff of retention of lower level

employees in part because of this

difference as an example with for

example real estate. So, we're working

to launch our real estate artificial

intelligence, which is a combination of

of multiple different uh uh types of AI

uh including AI we're training ourselves

on our own Blackwell chips uh at

Houseack, which we're now calling

Reinvest. Changed the name, by the way,

because I view it as, hey, I talked

about this in my daily wealth yesterday.

Uh we're changing the name because we're

like, we want, you know, the AI is going

to be called Reinvest AI, which we're

launching soon. uh and we want to

reinvest the profits from the AI into

real estate and we're like, "Oh, what a

great name." You know, reinvest into

American real estate. So, the backbone

is always American real estate. But

anyway, what's so fascinating is people

who look at AI and say, "Oh, it's going

to do all my work for me." They won't

make money. People who look at AI and

say, "Ah, this cuts out 40% of the work

that I need to do for finding deals or

renovating deals or knowing what to do,

putting together my work list." But I

could still negotiate the deal. Well, I

could still coordinate the renovations.

Well, they're going to make way more

money. Uh, and so that's sort of that

combination of human plus AI. That's

really where you make a lot of money.

And I think that's where we get

optimistic and and that's one of the

reasons Tesla stock runs so much is

because we hope that well the humanoid

robot can just do everything for us. But

that hope is great for the stock in the

short term along with these new models.

But fundamentally, we've got a long way

to go before we get to that level. And I

think this this what he's about to say

helps us see that even with LLMs

>> available test. Um and that tells you

that um first of all we're missing

something big that you know

that that we need AI systems to to learn

from natural high bandwidth sensory data

like video. Uh we're never going to get

to human level intelligence by just

training on text. is not happening

despite what you might hear for some

people who are in the cult in Silicon

Valley who are going to tell you you

know by next year we're going to have

you know a data center uh you know a

country of geniuses in a data center. Uh

and basically what he's saying is

there's a cult in Silicon Valley that

says we're going to have artificial

intelligence artificial general

intelligence in a year. It's mostly he

makes the argument that it's mostly just

fundraising right now. Like it's bull

crap. I completely agree. By the way, I

think most AI that we see now is like an

LLM wrapper. And LLMs are really just

lookup tools. They're they're they're

quite advanced pattern recognition

because you create this world model and

then you compare. Okay, well, if this

happens, what do I think is going to

happen next? Well, we look at historical

context and patterns to find out, ah,

okay, well, this is likely to happen

next probabilistically.

This is what we now call reasoning AI,

but it's again really just fancy pattern

recognition. And he makes the argument

that the there's a limit to how far we

can get when we really have the pattern

recognition of a four-year-old at this

point, which is also kind of optimistic

because it suggests that there's so much

more we could do with AI. It just

suggests this initial boom is nowhere

near enough to get us to AGI. And I

agree with that, especially when we

combine the lack of AGI with the

limitations that we have on hardware

today. It's not great for me to get

really, really enthusiastic on robots in

the near term. Now, don't get me wrong,

in my VC fund, we also invested in

robots, but we invested in robots like

two years ago before it was maybe like a

year ago. Yeah, it's probably been like

18 months now. I I can't get my timing

straight, but it's been a while ago uh

before some of this this real latest

boom. And so that's when I look at the

fundamentals, I even think there's a

chance that 2030 could be early. But

let's run it for a moment. Let's assume

for a moment that Tesla can get us

humanoid robots uh in mass production by

2030, keeping in mind that Elon's

already told us that his goal is to have

more humanoid robots than vehicles

manufactured. And we've also got this

expectation that Optimus 2 is nowhere

near like Optimus 2 cannot be mass

manufactured. That we need to get to

Optimus 3. In my opinion, we'll probably

have to get to like Optimus 7 to

actually get to mass production. Uh but

he says that right here.

Uh let's actually see here. Optimus

actually I don't exactly remember where

he says Optimus 2.5. Let's see here. Ah,

here we go. Uh, Optimus 2 is almost

impossible to manufacture. Optimus 2 and

a half can do kung fu. And then we have

Optimus 3 will be a giant improvement

and made at scale hopefully. But he

still asterisks this by saying the very

difficult thing is actually getting the

manufacturing and engineering down. He

doesn't imply that they've already

figured out the engineering and

manufacturing. That's a red flag. This

is an asterisk. And so Elon really what

he's doing is he's building up this hey

guys like we can't mass manufacture yet

and I'm working really hard on being

able to mass manufacture this and if you

want me to you better pay me because I

just want influence on being able to

control this robot army. Uh but if I

don't get my pay package is essentially

what he's implying if he doesn't get his

pay package. You know maybe he doesn't

want to build Optimus at at Tesla. Okay.

This is why his pay package is likely to

pass because again people see hey if you

make money I make money right so that

that that's why it's likely to pass. Now

if we look at a fundamental basis and we

get optimistic here about optimist and

we go out to 2030 and we assume we can

do 4 million vehicles which is twice as

many as we have now. This would this

would already assume like a lowerc cost

vehicle is being produced and we assume

2 million optimi at 25,000 per. So,

lowerc cost vehicle, $25,000 Optimi.

Great. Uh, we're going to go with 18%

margin on the cars, no tax credit. We're

going to go with a 25% margin on the

Optim. Okay. We're going to assume 2

million Optim. Uh, and we're going to

assume 4 million of the vehicles, right?

Okay, great. So, uh, let's see here. Let

me make sure we've got our numbers right

here. 25. Yeah, that looks right. So

25,2 million of these 332 of those. That

looks good. We've got our expenses over

here. That looks good. Good. All right.

Spreadsheet looks good. So what do we

get if we have a manufacturing PI or a

price to earnings ratio? So on a

50 times forward PE ratio, Tesla by the

end of 2030,

let's put 2030 right here. It's just

label. This doesn't change anything.

Would be reasonable to have a $362 stock

price. Okay. It's currently trading at

$460, which is a negative 4.6% return

between now and 2030, which is obviously

terrible. So, based on a manufacturing

PE ratio, it ain't going to happen.

Okay? So, we really have to choose a

services PE ratio, which isn't really

fair if we're talking about them

manufacturing robots and cars because,

you know, they don't really deserve uh

services ratio, unless of course you can

mass scale robo taxi by them and, you

know, maybe license the software that

goes into these humanoids. Fine. So,

let's give them that. Let's give them a

78, which is about a 2.6 times, right?

Uh, for a PEG ratio basis. So that would

get us to about a $564

future value in 2030,

which gives us a return of about $4.2%

if you bought the stock today. Gives you

a return of about 4.2% per year for the

next 5 years. That's not bad. It's not

bad. But it assumes that we can actually

pull off

2 million Optimus robots by 2030.

If you think it's going to take 10 years

to actually get to that, then your

return is going to be even less. Right?

If I throw in 10 years to achieve this,

my return is closer to 2% per year. And

this includes a lot of risk. Like what

if we can never pull off the robots,

right? What if we can't do 4 million

vehicles a year? So, there's a lot of

risk involved in that where Tesla's

pricing is today. There's not a lot of

room for error here. Uh that said,

there's a lot of optimism because of,

you know, the selling of basically the

shareholder vote by Robin

>> to touch it, but I did.

>> Yeah, you can. I mean, um yeah, again,

from a cautious perspective, we we

continue to um make sure that people are

cautious around

>> and keep in mind the 4 million vehicle

production already includes cyber cab

considerations, right? Like I'm already

rounding that in there under the

assumption that normal car sales would s

fall as cyber cab sales go up. And then

of course the hard thing is pricing in

robo taxi revenues which could be a

gamecher. The problem with robo taxi

revenues is is the the potential for

just like what profit will there be if

we squeeze robo taxi revenues down to

basically a break even. You're better

off selling cyber cabs to operators. And

that's in my $4 million or four million

vehicle per year estimate. So I actually

think it's better for Tesla to just sell

the vehicles and then give other people

the let other people buy the cyber caps

to operate because I think the margins

will be just way too low over time.

>> But but um you know he also uh can

dance. You've seen some videos. Uh he's

very uh very dancing does not matter.

Dancing picking up gummies once none of

that matters. What matters is repeatedly

doing tasks

>> extras. He's walking around the offices

in PaloAlto all the time. So

>> does not matter.

>> Um so I'm actually quite excited. But I

think to answer your question,

>> of course you're excited. Stock pump

>> question. Um we're redefining what trans

transportation is, but we're also

redefining uh robotics and and what AI

br

>> She does have a little bit of the ozic

thing look going on. I mean, good for

her, right? cuz she she used to be, you

know, much more overweight. So, I

actually like I'm a fan if anybody can

lose weight and then keep it off.

Ideally, you get off the drug and then

you no longer I don't know if she

actually is, but I just see the comments

on it. She's probably right. But hey,

like I say, you know, if that can help

you get to a better state and then you

can keep it off without the drug, that'd

be great.

>> To robotics and how versatile uh the

robots can will be in the future as

well. Andrew,

>> in terms of by the way, Elon's spending

most of his time, it sounds like these

days on on the robots themselves. I

mean, that's that's where his focus is.

>> This is this is what they want to pitch,

right? Remember, they go into these

interviews going, "These are the things

like we'll go on your show, but we want

to talk about these things."

She has the power to do that at CNBC.

Uh, so that would be my anticipation.

And that's what they want to sell is,

hey, Elon's sleeping on the floor

working on robots. Don't rug pull him on

his stock comp.

>> He's spending time on many different

areas. Um, on the earnings call, he even

talked about uh the AI chips that he's

been working on.

>> Going back to Samsung on the AI chips,

by the way.

>> Um, and the team are working on

obviously the um the software. We do

have a few uh other vehicles coming out.

Um, so he spends time on that.

>> Few other vehicles coming out. You know,

that's a good little hint right there

whether those will just be paired down

lower costs or actually new models. I

just pray they'll be newer models. We

need newer models.

>> He's been

>> I'll buy another Tesla. If if they come

out with a new model, I'll buy it. I'll

buy it as long as it's functional for my

family, right?

>> Time on everything across the board.

>> Just keep in mind, you know, this like a

lot of this talk about the AI5 chip. You

know, Elon's already careful to hedge

anytime he talks about the chip by

talking up Nvidia because they need

Nvidia for XAI. Uh, you know, they're

buying 300,000 chips over there. They

they just closed down Dojo, their own

chip manufacturing, uh, well, it wasn't

manufacturing, their own chip design,

and they took like a $250 million charge

for that because

you just can't compete against these

Nvidia chips. The Nvidia chips are

really good. Now, purpose-built chips

are nice maybe for Optimus or otherwise

uh but um you know there's there's a red

flag there uh in terms of its ability to

compete with Nvidia as much as they want

investors to believe that you know

there's a moonshot here as far as energy

which is worth talking about. I already

include nearly a doubling of energy

revenues and I agree yeah Tesla needs

needs a van. So uh energy I've already

got in my sheet as well. So I've already

got another doubling nearly of energy in

here. Uh solar we know is so comp. You

don't make money on solar panels. You

make money on batteries. Uh so and then

of course we have to be asteris. So like

it's easy to list all of the great

things Tesla is doing which is why it's

the world's most expensive startup. But

it's also important to recognize that a

lot of these things are already built

into the price. That's not to be bearish

shortterm. Again the momentum is going

to be great on the stockcom plan. the

stock comp plan passes, it could

probably hit 500 bucks per share, but uh

a lot of the the long-term fundamental

profits are already baked into the

price.

>> And then finally, uh because I got to

ask you to weigh on it. We've asked

everybody, you know, everyone talks

about an AI bubble, whether there's sort

of, you know, indiscriminate spending,

almost too much spending in this space,

um and that it's going to catch up to us

at some point. Where do you land on that

topic? Yeah, my my view is that that the

the technology of AI is truly

transformative. Um and it will uh

continue to be

>> and used in the right way. The

technology of AI is transformative.

Again, I think the smartest people in

our world will be even more capable. The

smartest companies become even more

capable because of AI. And this is

actually why I think the rich actually

end up getting even richer. I think that

who benefits the most off of artificial

intelligence probably won't be

individual people. They'll be

corporations who'll be able to keep more

of their profit because of AI. Uh or or

I mean I I also I look at this in the

way of like

I mean I what we want to do with our

real estate AI for example is we want to

make sure home buyers

can make the right ROI decisions when

they buy the right deal or they spend

the right money on investments. Like if

an AI can tell you spend this much on a

kitchen and no more because otherwise

your ROI will be negative in this

neighborhood. To me that's a net worth

positive to people, right? The people

who use that technology will win net

worthwise. The people who don't will

continue to overspend on real estate

without even realizing it because

nobody's telling people that they're

overspending on renovating real estate.

And that's what our AI changes at

reinvest.co.

So we're excited about that. But again,

it helps people who utilize the tool get

richer. You know, people who don't

utilize artificial intelligence

correctly will lose

>> over the next uh you know, decade or

more in terms of what it's done. I was I

was thinking about this yesterday. Um

you know, if you think about a hundred

years ago, um you know, where most

houses didn't have electricity or or had

cars in the driveways. Uh that to me is

what's happening at this point. It's um

we're changing transportation with uh

with AI and we're tra changing the way

households will work and how workplaces

will work with with robotics and um and

I think that's incredibly exciting and

uh Tesla uh aims to be at the forefront

of that.

>> Yeah,

>> Robin, want to thank you uh for joining

us and for bringing uh Optimus with you.

>> Now they talk about stock comp and and

the vote and stuff like that. So I mean

that's the other thing to look at is

like in the short term Tesla doesn't

really have very bearish catalysts. Uh

so Tesla right now is actually at a

great point because the stock comp plan

in the near term will be seen as very

very bullish when it passes because

you'll be removing a negative catalyst.

There's a really big fear that if Elon

doesn't get his stockcom comp plan that

they will end up that he'll end up

yoinking optimist and it'll be a really

big negative catalyst for the stock. So,

ironically, the stock could probably go

even higher on the passage of the

Stockcom plan. And then you have a

really good quarter coming up for energy

sales, selling solar, selling batteries,

anything you could sell this quarter in

Q4 before the residential tax credit

expiration. Huge benefit for Tesla

stock. So, near-term catalyst plus the

potential of of new models, super

provocative for Tesla, very very like

not great long-term fundamentals because

you're pricing in so much already,

right? If I take out the if I just put

this at a 50p ratio instead, you're at a

negative ROI, right? Five year uh

between now and 2030. And that's

assuming a doubling a near doubling of

of energy sales, 2 million Optimus, 4

million vehicles and cyber cabs. Uh you

know, we only have a 10% take rate on

FSD, right? So like we're already

putting in so like high margins on

Optimus, 18% margins on the cars. We are

putting in massive assumptions here for

for to to keep this stock price up.

So near-term technicals great next five

years it's very shockprone to a

compression in margin debt uh because we

have such large allocations to Tesla

broadly in the retail community

it it there will probably be better

times to enter it right like am I saying

you know run for the hills it's going to

crash no I'm saying I think there will

be better shock opportunities to enter

the stock than than at this price I

don't think this is a great time to

enter it. Even though I think short-term

you have some potential upside to get

past all-time highs. You know, you're

you're you've got a huge psychological

barrier at 500 488 prior all-time high.

We could probably retest this on the

vote passing uh and and over this next

quarter 2026

probably be a different story. But

that's that, you know, that's my take on

on on Tesla right now. Now, if I look at

their earnings call,

uh let me see what else we have here.

We'll have to prove the Optimus out.

FSD14. Oh, um they are working overtime

right now to talk up their capabilities

on uh on FSD and AI. And I think Ashuck

is is actually doing a really good job

on it. Tesla's approach to autonomy.

They talk about the end-to-end neural

nets. They talk about how uh you know

predictive essentially the car could be

which is really again pattern

recognition on what's been seen before.

I see trajectories of chickens or you

know it's they're likely to cross the

road sort of thing. But I will say

everyone should use AI uh in their cars.

Like this is the future. There's no

question this is the future. Like I love

when they show the uh uh you know

accidents avoidance here. I think that

is that's not here. That might be in

this clip right here. Nope. I'll find it

in just a moment. But when they show the

accidents avoidance, accident avoidance,

whatever. You get what I'm trying to

say. Of of how quickly the vehicles can

swerve out of the way in an e situation.

Absolutely incredible. Oh, here it is. I

I don't have a I don't I don't like

driving cars that don't have FSD. You

know, my daily drivers, Lauren's daily

driver, my dad's daily driver, it's all

full self-driving. And there's only a

10% take rate right now on FSD, which is

crazy. And it shows the potential upside

of greater take rate for these for these

artificial intelligence software. This

is incredible.

You know, doing that as a computer

for accident prevention,

huge

for saving lives. There's no question to

me that AI plus, you know, with a human

is so much better than just an a than

just a human driver. doesn't get

distracted. It's safer. I love this. I

think everybody should have FSD. Uh so

I'm the biggest bull on FSD. Does it

justify the numbers today for Tesla? No.

But I love it and that's why I would

love to buy another model of vehicle if

they came out with another vehicle. Big

fan of this.

So um

uh let's see here. Somebody says,

"There's definitely a better time to buy

Tesla. I watched Tesla go from the 400s

to 100." Well, yeah. Like remember when

Elon was selling, right? Uh that that

dumped Tesla's stock price from, you

know, well, 400s down to what, like a

low of 130 at one point, right? Uh so,

you know, the company is I think the

world's most impressive startup. That's

the way I like to put it. Uh and and the

you know, valuation's a little wild. The

basis that I like to use, I like to use

a forward peg basis. And so let's assume

that Tesla has 40% growth right now.

Let's go grab their uh current EPS

and uh and then we could factor in sort

of a you know a fair value and a backup

the truck valuation for Tesla, right?

Which I don't think will happen in the

near term. Like I don't want people to

hear me say this and they go, "Oh, Tesla

Kevin thinks Tesla tax crash." No, no,

no. saying that in the near term it's

probably going to retest these its highs

here. But we have a buck 67 for EPS.

Okay. So on a manufacturing basis 1.67.

This is this is actually very simple.

I'll pull this up on a chart for us. So

let's just grab a little sheet here.

Okay. So on a manufacturing basis,

okay, uh 1.67 67 times 1.67.

Oh, that's funny. It's the same thing.

Uh, times 40, which is the growth rate.

Okay.

Equals that. That's the share price.

Share price as a manufacturer assuming

40% EPS growth next four years. Right?

So, this is already assuming 40%

earnings per share growth for the next

four years. As a manufacturer, as a

serer, we do 2.67

times 1.67, which is the EPS, times 40

equals, that's your share price as a

serer. Okay. Now, in order to really

grow this, you need to price in massive

growth

on uh you know

to grow this you need uh massive energy

uh robo taxi

uh cyber cab

uh new vehicle model growth

and optimus sales. That's how you can

justify the share price is by already

pricing in those extra things. You know,

if if for example, if I could take a 20

20 EPS, right? Let's take a 2020 EPS

2028 EPS of $4. Let's assume still 40%

EPS growth ahead, right? That's going to

be a lot better cuz now as a

manufacturer I could do uh 1.67

Oops, there we go. Uh 1.67 * $4 time 40

equals, you know, and then as a serer

1.67 * $4* 40 equals uh oops 2.67

and oh guess I have to redo that. There

we go. But you can still see those

numbers are a far cry from where we are

today because of uh the enthusiasm

that's already built in. So

fundamentally it it's it can't be a buy

here. Uh but technically short-term

swing probably up because of enthusiasm

around the stock plan. Uh and and it

makes sense because it's just such it's

like you have to think about it as like

the the business that you could touch

the AI of right now. And that's what

makes it so freaking provocative. So

yeah, I mean, good for Tesla, right?

[music] It's great. 67. Yeah, 67.

[laughter]

Anyway, uh, so that's my take on Tesla,

you know? It's it's a it's a bet on the

future and it's really exciting.

>> Why not advertise these [music] things

that you told us here? I feel like

nobody else knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Pra there, financial analyst

[music] and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always

great to get your take.