the future of tesla

what is something positive that we could

say about the Tesla event yesterday and

it's that as much as we hated the event

and the presentation and I was pissed

about it I find it remarkable that they

think whatever this future vehicle is

could potentially in the future have

twice as many vehicles ever produced as

the model 3 and the model y a 380

million vehicle production of the S and

Y combined is roughly half of the 700

million unit production of whatever this

vehicle is we expect this vehicle

probably to be essentially the Tesla

Model 2. my guess is this would probably

be for the Asian markets uh whether

that's potentially India China uh you

know

Etc essentially the the Asian markets

possibly even South America as is

another possible where essentially a

smaller car is more acceptable and keep

in mind that in America while we like

big cars there are less Americans than

there are obviously people in South

America or in Asia I mean substantially

less I mean even just China has like

three to four times the population we do

out here now of course we have much more

money per capita than people in India or

China uh by a factor of of uh five to

ten X but over time that will change and

I think it's very interesting that the

expectation is this model too could

potentially generate a substantially

more Vehicles produced than the three or

the why this was one of the hints that

Tesla really gave us uh if we want to

put on sort of the bullish hat the sort

of the the buy the dip hat right really

what they're suggesting is hey pay

attention that smaller vehicle is going

to be a game changer now when we look at

what Barclay said as sort of an investor

Day preview they suggest suggested that

in the future the model 2 would probably

be their lowest margin vehicle at around

21 percent and that I believe is what

we're showing here but they're showing

that also next to look at this 300

million vehicles for this Sprinter and

potentially cyber truck over here right

we expect this to be a passenger cargo

van and then you've got the Cyber truck

here 300 million Vehicles is essentially

suggesting that this van and pickup will

call it maybe the the cargo lineup okay

the cargo lineup could be roughly as big

as the three in the Y now that's

fascinating that the cargo lineup alone

could be roughly as big as the three and

Y that's pretty bullish on these new

vehicles over here notice this is not

saying Tesla is not coming to us and

saying hey we're going to produce the

Tesla Roadster I mean maybe maybe that's

the Roadster but I don't believe I mean

the shape looks roughly in line with

Roadster right but I don't believe Tesla

would expect the Roadster to sell 700

million Vehicles because after all if

the S and X are only selling 40 million

Vehicles why would the Roadster sell 700

right it wouldn't it would be way too

expensive so really they're suggesting

here let's let's just do the math over

here they're suggesting that essentially

the current lineup uh would be

responsible for about oh that's

hilarious 420 million vehicles at the

current lineup okay so uh let's uh let's

just write that down over here so the

current lineup would be responsible for

about 420 million Vehicles the new

lineup could be responsible for about

1.1 billion Vehicles so consider that

for a moment 1.1 billion divided by 420.

that means the new vehicle lineup could

represent

2.6 x the current vehicle lineup now

that's actually really interesting so

this combined over here represents 2.6 x

the current lineup ignoring the semi

truck right so in other words Tesla

themselves thinks hey look the cars

we're making right now are not going to

be the most popular Vehicles it's these

future Vehicles made on the new

generation platforms that are going to

be the most popular Vehicles now what's

also interesting is that Elon Musk and

that really got me thinking Elon Musk in

the Q a suggested hey we're not going to

retool these cars to be manufactured by

our Optimus robot or or in the more

advanced method of manufacturing instead

we're going to have our new gigabyte

factories Focus probably on these new

vehicles and the new vehicle platform

we're not going to go back and retool

all the old stuff because that would be

very expensive to do and Elon Musk

actually rolled his eyes at the idea of

the copy and paste model now I'm the one

who's been screaming copy and paste for

a year and I'll take egg on the face for

for you know apparently not aligning

with with the Elon Vision there fine

like it's okay I I'm totally willing to

be wrong because see in my opinion when

you make uh a when you make a sort of an

argument when you have an opinion you

can identify when that opinion is

starting to be wrong right and that's

actually this look at elon's face here

when he responds to the idea of the copy

and paste model okay so my idea has been

hey look we've got the S's and X's let's

let's Master the snx production I'm

sorry not the snx the three and why

let's Master the 3ny production at Giga

Berlin and Austin Texas and then copy

and paste those factories around the

world tell us about South America tell

us about China and tell us how how we're

going to get to substantially more

vehicles but I think Elon has a

different vision and that vision is no

no each Factory needs to be uh

potentially an order of a magnitude more

efficient

than the prior Factory especially since

our new vehicle platform is going to be

focused on the new models just listen to

this seven seconds here the the term you

use Lars is copy paste

so to get it right from the first time

um you know the

look at elon's face there okay elon's

face here is uh rolling his eye at the

copy and paste idea and then shaking his

head I mean the poor guy's falling

asleep because he was probably up at

like 2 A.M the night four and then I

think he had to go to the I'm not sure

if he went to the NASA launch but hey I

admire it I you know I think it's

awesome but anyway again look at look at

the copy and paste and then elon's

reaction it's it's as clear as day

obvious what you need to know about copy

base copy and paste is out the window

we're never saying it again with the

exception of it's dead okay watch again

the the term you use Lars is copy paste

so to get it right from the first time

um Elon not happy with copy and paste

and I think elon's not happy with the

copy and paste idea specifically because

of this idea of this this new vehicle

platform and I think that's what they

see the future as and that was probably

uh the one of the most exciting sort of

actually bits of new information we got

here is not only their opinion on which

vehicles are going to be most popular

not the three and the Y which I think is

very interesting and that they're not

actually going to retool the existing

lines for the sx3y but that the future

lines

are actually going to be more

robotically capable right right now

they're showing humans working on these

individual different pieces and the idea

was that hey we can rather than

assembling the car and then

disassembling the car and reassembling

the car we could just manufacture the

car in the various different pieces so

that way no part of the car is not being

worked on while it's being manufactured

uh and really what you're saying is

let's have robots perfect each piece of

the car and then we'll puzzle it

together like Legos it makes sense it

initially was a little boring this idea

of okay 30 space time efficiency

Improvement but really what they're

saying is the Optimus robot is going to

be building the most popular vehicles

for Tesla and the most popular vehicles

for Tesla are yet to come

that's sort of the bullish argument and

if you believe in this idea which it's

obvious Tesla is really the master uh

and leader in Innovation when it comes

to uh minimizing cost and maximizing

margins that's redundant that's the same

thing but anyway uh obviously then this

becomes a nice little by the dippy

doodle opportunity here right of course

look I I am a long-term investor I think

the presentation was an sh-19 show uh

but but putting the emotion of yesterday

aside

this is this is actually very

interesting uh especially because this

next-gen vehicle is actually really I

think where they're thinking uh-uh

that's going to be where we make most of

our vehicles look at this again

2.6 times as many vehicles are expected

to be produced that don't exist yet

relative to what is already available

from Tesla so this is really the big

takeaway from the master plan is that

look the next vehicles that are actually

going to represent 2.6 times the

production of the current lineup or

which are going to be manufactured in a

much more efficient manner potentially

50 as inexpensive via the use of our

robots or whatever

this is the master plan uh this is the

scale that nobody's really talking about

yet

uh and so okay I will give that to Tesla

I will give that to Tesla that it was

there I think it was very poorly

conveyed and only after sobering up

after basically you know falling asleep

on the Tesla presentation does that

become more apparent but I think it's

it's worth highlighting that because I

do think as a long-term investor this is

uh this is actually phenomenally

exciting uh so I'm I'm very very

interested by that somebody here writes

copy and paste assumes the current

process is perfect we should assume

everything we do is wrong and can be

improved upon yeah I I mean I don't I

don't want to come across as suggesting

that copy and paste didn't mean stop

refining right uh and I understand then

that's sort of like definitionally

playing with copy and paste but I mean

obviously if you're going to like okay

good we've got a really good model for

Giga Austin and Giga Berlin let's do it

again obviously the idea is let's take

everything we learned and if we could do

things slightly better great but let's

just get as many factories up as

possible I think that was the idea of

copy and paste it's let's ramp as many

times as we can but it actually seems

like rather than ramping as many times

as we can now the real plan is how are

we going to prepare for that next-gen

vehicle platform that robots are

basically assembling that we actually

think is going to produce 2.6 times as

many vehicles as the the next uh or as

the the current Vehicles so I think

that's very interesting can we call this

the Gen Z vehicle uh what the small one

are you making fun of gen z

uh let's see here let's just see if

there are any other coming down okay all

right uh I do feel bad for MP materials

though they I think they're down like 11

in pre-market because Tesla talked about

getting rid of rare earth materials now

I've always been a big fan of staying

away from Commodities sorry Steve Steve

the course member super into Commodities

I'm always a fan of that because if if

the Commodities use change then then the

company that benefits is the one making

the changes they they're really agnostic

to ultimately the material they use you

know everybody can make all these

lithium Investments and if all of a

sudden we find a better battery

chemistry that doesn't use lithium all

those lithium Investments go to poopsie

dupsies and and the company actually the

the end manufacturer is the one that

ends up winning right because they may

they use a more efficient material maybe

one that's a lower cost or whatever but

anyway MP material did reply uh on

Twitter and I thought it was kind of a

nice little slap at Tesla for their

presentation MP material rights did we

miss something yawn

it's like straight up mp materials clap

back

I mean empty Materials stock is is

obviously going to be a little sad today

it's down 10.6 because of this talk

about potentially getting rid of uh rare

earth materials and uh in in the engines

of vehicles and I I do think that a lot

of Tesla investors were sort of

diversifying with MP materials so that

doesn't terribly surprise me but yeah

sorry MP I did I think their clap back

was pretty funny though so uh anyway

yeah so I think the bottom line of that

is look

you know price Target wise this has

really change anything for Tesla no the

icing on the cake is still there

obviously we still you know we went in

with with somewhat salty expectations

anyway for investor day just because

Tesla's not that great at doing events

this just happened to be a very horrible

event I would be very upset uh if if I

actually went out there for the event uh

because I think it was poorly put

together I think they could have really

spent more time talking about what I

just talked about and painting that

Vision but this is what happens when you

have Engineers putting on a presentation

you know apple is a company of Engineers

but they take the knowledge of the

engineers and then they give real

presenters that the tool to properly

convey the information uh you know and

and that's you know when they're just

relying on Engineers to do it you just

you're just putting on basically a

snooze Fest and I hate to say it it's

nothing against Engineers I think a lot

of Engineers will be like no Kevin

you're right you know like I know this

isn't meant to be offensive it's just

it's still honest and