A Recipe for Disaster

this video is brought to you by

public.com meet kevin where you can get

a free stock more on them later hey

everyone me kevin here in this video i'm

going to outline my complete plans for

the next six months in this crazy stock

market that we have because i think we

could potentially face the fear of a

recipe of a disaster and i'm going to

explain that i'm going to talk about

covet i'm going to talk about my

thoughts on crypto stocks safety stocks

recovery stocks when to buy when to

potentially sell what to do these are

just my opinions obviously this isn't

financial advice and if you want more of

my opinions i have amazing programs

linked down below that you can get 40

off on using the new coupon code stop

the see that link down below

okay folks let's talk about

what we know first

and then we're going to get into the a

little bit more speculative stuff and

the reason i want to separate this is

because i want to make it very clear

what's fact and what's not so we're

going to start with fact first and then

we'll get into the opinion okay so facts

last

time we had coving the first coveted

breakout we had an abrupt sell-off of

everything we had massive fear massive

uncertainty nothing was safe and

something for you to really download

into your investing mindset

is the best time to buy stocks is when

there's blood in the streets in other

words when people are literally fearful

so literal fear in the stock market is a

good time to buy socks this is totally

different from actual blood in the

streets because last summer we had a

bunch of riots and the stock market was

soaring i literally mean

uncertainty to the point where people

like oh my gosh and everything's selling

off like crazy in the market right the

same thing actually happened right

before the election there was so much

uncertainty right before the election it

didn't even matter who became the

president when we had our election it

just mattered that somebody became the

president rather than having uncertainty

the stock market hates uncertainty so

after we had our big sell-off tech

recovered for the first four to about

five and a half months

with pretty much straight gains from the

bottom of the market through around

september 4th when the market started

being a little bit more shaky and we

started having a tech sell-off we saw

evs tack high multiple stocks specs

didn't matter tech was pretty much

safety for five and a half months things

just went nuts these are things that

happened last year we also know that

recovery stocks moved closely with the

course of the virus we had a plummet in

march and april of last year with gains

in may as the recovery

set in and the pandemic seemed over

people were going out again but then we

had memorial day in june and all of a

sudden the recovery started stalling and

we started seeing recovery stocks falter

and it wasn't really until the vaccine

was announced on november 9th that we

had a real boom in recovery stocks that

lasted all the way through around the

end of may to june of this year that's

kind of when they all started in sync

plummeting due to delta fears in fact if

you look up when delta search trends

started picking up they started picking

up around june 1st so the market is

already starting to price in delta

concerns into recovery stocks that's why

so many of the recovery stocks have just

been bleeding down down two percent two

percent two percent over and over and

over again nothing abrupt just a slow

bleed out the market is preparing

already now we also know that during the

pandemic people spent a lot of money on

stuff apple computers ipads phones

peloton bikes refrigerators appliances

furniture etsy crap you name it

kathy wood personally believes that

people have enough stuff that people are

stuffed out and we're going to come back

to stuff because stuff is going to be a

sort of

a part of our

our opportunities a hunt or maybe not

but we'll talk more about stuff in a

moment

now additionally

we know that right now

79.4 of adults over 65 are vaccinated so

disproportionately more older folks are

vaccinated that should lower the death

rate for any form of covid whether it's

the alpha variant or the delta variant

whatever

we also know that delta is about two and

a half times as transmissible as the

alpha variant of coven we also know that

the united kingdom just had a surge of

the delta variant but their cases

started to subside very quickly and we

want to look at why that happened and is

that potentially a sign for the united

states of what we could go through are

we setting up too much fear now for

unnecessary reasons only to have a small

peak and then essentially collapse again

take a look on screen right now

you can see here you uh we had our our

main wave over here of the covid alpha

variant and of course initial wave uh

you know second third wave so to speak

but this was really our massive delta

wave here

and we can really see this decline

pretty quickly in the span of a few

weeks we had uh

the delta variant at the end of june

skyrocket through around mid-july and

the last couple weeks it's been

plummeting and so it's worth comparing

the united states to

the united kingdom a little bit and when

we look at some statistics we see that

in the united kingdom 88 percent of

adults have received at least one

vaccine 73 their their second dose but

88 having at least one dose is pretty

good since the first dose does probably

the most for efficacy in terms of you

know being protected against getting

severely ill with covet

we all know at this point that you could

still get sick with covid and still

spread covid we understand that there's

no disputing that this is not going to

be a video trying to convince you to

take the vaccine or not take the vaccine

that's your personal choice

but

what this does mean is that the united

kingdom is almost at 90

herd immunity which right now bloomberg

is reporting that the united states in

order to avoid big fallout from delta

needs to be somewhere between 80 to 90

percent herd immunity the united kingdom

has this and because they have this we

saw a spike in delta and a very quick

rapid decline in delta which is very

very good they basically got away

without having to go to kind of strict

lockdown measures again or any kind of

draconian measures to try to limit the

spread because their hospitals were

getting overflowed they were able to

control it because they have more herd

immunity

unfortunately for the u.s

only 70 percent of adults have one dose

bloomberg says we need to be between 80

to 90 the united kingdom has that

the united states does not have that and

only 60 of adults excluding children

because you might see the u.s population

is about 50.3 vaccinated but that

doesn't include children 60 of adults

are fully vaccinated 70 have only had

one shot okay so this explains why all

of a sudden joe biden and congress folks

and political leaders are all going

folks get the vaccine people are

freaking out because they in politics

because they see the writing on the wall

we're not at the herd of community

levels we need to be at there's a

significant population of folks in

america who do not want to get

vaccinated in fact if you look at gallup

polls gallup polls believes that at

least 20 to 25 of americans are likely

to refuse vaccination and then gallup

didn't give these reasons but i'm going

to impute these reasons i always want to

separate stat from my opinion

i believe a lot of folks aren't getting

the vaccine in that 20 to 25 group

because either they've had covet they

believe it has not been studied enough

medical reasons like doctors orders

there are actually some doctors who are

saying do not get the vaccine for

certain people this makes sense i'm not

a doctor and i'm not professing to be a

doctor so i'm just providing that as

reason uh and then of course the the

fact that you know people are still

getting sick with the vaccine albeit

maybe not as severely doesn't really

help sell the idea of the vaccine right

like vaccinated people still having to

wear masks get covetaz i'd still go

through the same inconveniences as

potentially unvaccinated people takes

away a little bit of that selling factor

for that vaccine right so unfortunately

that helps or i'm sorry unfortunately

that hurts uh in in more people getting

vaccinated which is not so good for the

market okay so now we've set kind of

a baseline of a background facts uh

things that that we really want to

understand and be on the same page about

so we can kind of start planning for the

future so we've gone through facts

now

let's go through my opinions and how

this market might function this is not

financial advice this is not guaranteed

to happen if this is totally wrong and

you lose lots of money don't sue me bro

it's your fault i made it very clear so

i believe there are three important

factors to consider when we think about

how the market might react to delta and

the first is are you part of the amazing

programs linked down below and did you

use the 40 of coupon code okay i'm sorry

i had to do it that's not one of the

reasons okay

the first of these is look

we know that the delta curve is

promising with around 88 percent herd

immunity

with 88 of folks having one shot this is

very good

however the united states is not within

this 80 to 90 percent range this is

going to create a problem with factor

number one

fear what did we talk about at the

beginning of this video markets tend to

react more to fear than they do to

actual deaths or reality this sounds

absolutely terrible

but remember folks when covet first hit

and we had no idea how bad this pandemic

was going to be it was going to be like

the plague the bubonic like what is this

oh my gosh it's from china we know oh my

gosh there was so much beer so much

uncertainty people were going to grocery

stores in hazmat suits no idea who but

people were going to grocery stores and

hazmat suits and there was so much fear

the market reacted very poorly

but when you look at the rest of the

year even though coveted cases were

going up even though deaths were going

up and we had these extreme waves of

just utter madness in hospitals with

many deaths and many covet cases the

stock market actually did surprisingly

well for the rest of the year because

the blistering fear the stock market had

was gone

so

can we get back or would we get back to

any kind of blistering fear and how does

that factor in to our delta projections

well first when i was thinking about

making this video i was thinking should

we evaluate how bad we think delta is

going to actually get like how many

cases do we think they're going to be

like how many people are going to die

and then i realized no we actually don't

have to do that that is not important at

all because again look at what happened

last time in the pandemic the stock

market cared about fear

more than what actually ended up

happening because when reality played

out the stock market didn't really care

the stock market cared more about fear

and uncertainty than it did about what

actually happened

so fear is the number one most important

ingredient and what helps accelerate

fear

shutdowns talk about lockdowns and

shutdowns

this morning we had one of the vice

presidents of the federal reserve say

that potentially we might be seeing

school shutdowns come back okay this is

very bad this is a wonderful way to

start the fear gauge going up and it

makes sense why some of the moves we're

seeing in the stock market today are

what we're seeing i'll explain and we'll

talk about those in a moment but school

shutdowns coming back would be very bad

because it would mean less workers

available to work again potentially

means higher wages and inflationary

pressures but uh it put in put inflation

aside for right now

school lockdowns are the precursor to

other forms of lockdowns what if

manufacturing gets locked down or shut

down what if businesses get shut down

again what if restaurants get shut down

again and

the question here isn't so much a matter

of oh my gosh those things might happen

it's just the fear that they might

happen

is probably going to be enough to start

freaking out the stock market so we

really want to monitor

where the dialogue is going

with shutdown

talk not necessarily actual shutdowns

yet but shut down talk because if we get

lots of shutdown talk and then we hit

peak shutdown talk talk

then

that might be an opportunity to sort of

buy the dip on recovery especially if

shutdowns don't actually happen now if

they actually start happening we still

want to pay attention to how much talk

is happening

about future shutdowns or extended

shutdowns so the big game that you want

to play

and write this one down okay is monitor

the media for

shutdown

talk an easy way to track shutdown talk

is actually don't use the word shutdown

because then we think of government

shutdown so kind of skews the numbers a

little bit search google trends for

lockdown okay lock down look at the fear

here look at this folks look at this

insane

spike in lockdown talk uh when when we

had the pandemic get started between in

the middle of march of 2020 okay this

lockdown talk

was pretty much directly correlated to

the bottom of the market which is crazy

like the peak of this this lockdown talk

here uh is is pretty much close to march

23rd at the bottom of the market which

is absolutely crazy to think about uh

now go to uh look at this sort of next

surge that we had which was sort of

november

uh this is really when cases were

starting to get extreme and there were

palpitations in the market but it was

nowhere near as bad as this kind of

lockdown talk so what we're really

looking for is the current increase in

this lockdown tank to exceed these

levels substantially and probably get

closer to like the

relative strength of i would say at

least 50 at least a relative strength of

50 which would mean the line would be

somewhere up here so imagine another

sort of triangle over here

that's kind of what i'm going to be

looking for as my gauge to maybe

consider getting into recovery stocks

while at the same time delta cases or

coveted cases move up if all of a sudden

delta goes away then this strategy needs

to get remade right then forget about it

then forget this strategy you're not

going to see lockdown uh talk skyrocket

anymore as long as delta keeps getting

worse you know the florida stuff new

york has more mandates whatever lockdown

talks probably going to go up so we want

to keep an eye on lockdown talk very

very very important okay the next thing

that we want to look at

is unemployment expiring september 4th

so when unemployment expires september

4th we want to see if this unemployment

expiration is coupled with school

lockdowns if we have school lockdowns

and unemployment expiring then there

will probably be immediate calls in

congress for an extension of the

unemployment boost an extension of the

unemployment boost is going to very

quickly raise debt and inflationary

concerns it's going to raise debt

concerns because the government is

spending more money and it's going to

raise inflationary concerns because not

only are wages now getting forced up

even more but again the government is

printing more money so notice the last

two things i talked about here with

school shutdowns and unemployment both

of them potentially leading to more

inflationary pressures

not now don't worry about that but

coming up now folks we got to take a

quick minute here just to talk about

today's sponsorpublic.com where you can

get one totally free stock if you go to

public.com

meet kevin public.com is an investing

app where you can buy or sell stocks

follow investors and share ideas i

personally think this is really amazing

because you can literally see when

somebody says click buy or when they

click sell it shows what their gain or

loss was it's a really cool way to

follow

folks through a social stock app and get

really transparent information so i love

this you can follow people like me or

graham my buddy graham you follow me at

meet kevin i personally join public you

can see my portfolio there if you search

meet kevin portfolio does not sell your

data or information like other apps i

personally also think it's pretty

incredibly easy to use which i really

enjoy about it so for example here i

threw in funds into sofi it's easy as

they so far is up eight percent today

great i've got about 76

in uh so fi over here and uh when i go

to trade it's super easy to invest buy

or sell deposit different amounts of

money depend you can buy in fractional

shares if you wanted to a lot of

different things that you can do with

public which is really awesome

and again you get the opportunity to

share your commentary and feedback

publicly which is super fun so folks

obviously in this video we're going to

be talking about some stock ideas so

stay tuned for those but while you

listen to this video go to public.com

meet kevin and get yourself a free stock

now the next thing that we have to pay

attention to is the potential fear

that lockdowns will slow our recovery in

solving the chip shortage crisis the

vehicle shortage crisis

or

fixing and solving freight costs that

have gone to the moon the reason for

that is if more people are on

unemployment because their kids aren't

going to school and they can't work in

shipping yards or freight yards and it's

harder to ship things faster again guess

what we get more inflationary pressures

if we think lockdown talk is going to

start extending to factories again guess

what more inflationary pressures

it's going to be messy right now at the

same time if delta skyrockets we're

probably going to have a hole in

inflation this sounds kooky because

we're literally talking about all of

these things

setting up for a potential inflation

skyrocket again right

but

consider this before inflation goes up

if we go into a delta curve we're very

likely to see this high inflation that

we have right now you know the 4.9

percent or the 5.1 or whatever we go

into a delta style

fears of lockdowns we're going to see

crude oil prices come down we're

probably going to see

at least some spending decline

especially if we do start restricting

air travel and things like this again

we could actually start seeing inflation

inflect down much faster than we

previously thought

but if it inflects down faster than we

thought there's also the risk that it

ends up coming back with a vengeance

after because guess what we did we took

on more debt we extended unemployment

payments we made the supply shortages

worse and we slowed all that crap down

again right

so i think the biggest concern for the

next few months is not a skyrocketing

inflation not yet a bigger concern is

what happens with fear around lockdowns

and delta then after that we're going to

shift right back to inflationary

concerns all right hopefully you're

still with me i'm going to summarize

this in just a moment

but now

we've got to consider we've got lots of

fear so far and fear is is an issue

right ultimately if we get delta we'll

probably see a delay in the tapering at

the fed we'll see more borrowing more

bond buying right all things that are

going to hurt inflation in the future

right now market already appears to be

pricing in the fact that the fed's going

to be coming to bail us out look at

10-year treasury yields they're at like

1.2 percent super super low which

potentially implies that ah fed you all

think you're gonna taper yank in a tape

or anything yet we got to get through

delta first okay market kind of

reiterating so far

so

now what i've done is i've given us a

ton of facts and data about what

happened last time in numbers and

statistics

then i've given you some concerns about

things to look for

now we got to pull this all together

all right so

in a very very simple way

the first thing we want to be concerned

about is lockdown talk

and then actual potential lockdowns or

shutdowns or extensions of stimulus or

whatever those are going to increase

inflationary pressures shutting down

manufacturing you know shipping yards

airplanes whatever that's going to

increase inflationary pressures if we

only have lockdown talk

and no shutdowns that's best case

scenario for inflation so lots of

lockdown talk is going to give us a

depression in prices for recovery stocks

actual lockdowns will not only give us

the depression and prices and recovery

stocks but also give us more

inflationary fears a little bit of an

issue

okay now we're going to draw real

conclusions here these are my

conclusions and i know this is a lot to

digest

but conclusions number one

i do not believe that tech stocks or evs

are going to suffer substantially during

delta in fact i personally believe that

tech will be the recipient of a rotation

to safety that will be accelerated by

lockdown

talk

so phase one lockdown talk right number

the next thing i also believe that the

stock market will continue this rotation

to safety on the presumption that delta

is coming and not knowing how bad it's

going to get it's the thing we have a

lot of fear we don't know how bad delta

is going to get so it's very possible

that we get this flight to safety that

just continues and continues and

continues until we get more data if we

start rounding the corner on delta and

lockdown talk goes away and evaporates

then that might be the perfect moment

where it's time to pick up recovery

stocks

but over the next few months while we

try to get all this data we try to start

on packaging what's going to happen i

think there's a good chance that tech

and evs are going to do very well and

for the time being i think inflationary

fears are going to take a back seat to

delta now

if inflation inflects downward because

of all of this again

tech and ev should do well

so piecing the puzzle together and we

can even take a little piece of paper

here to clarify this because i know

there's a lot we've talked about here so

let's do this let's draw a little thing

right here

lockdown

fears

lockdown or we'll put lockdown talk

means inflation

takes a back seat

and instead we have a flight of

potential safety so i'm just going to

put flight to safety

which is probably in my opinion tech and

ev and this is at the same time as delta

is going up so delta's going up lockdown

talk happens inflation takes a back seat

and we have a flight to safety

potentially detecting ev

as soon as

delta starts going down

then immediately lockdown talk is likely

to evaporate

and now we get to this place where we

have to this lockdown talk goes down

now we get to this place where we go

okay

where did we leave off did we get

lockdowns did we get shutdowns did we

get more inflationary pressures or do we

just pick up where we left off that's

possible but that is when i believe

there's going to be a potential

rebalancing again where maybe you want

to get out of some tech and ev and as

soon as this inflection point happens as

soon as that turn happens maybe you hop

back into some form of a uh you know

barbell portfolio that people talk about

and this is where you're probably going

to want to set up some kind of clean

portfolio now make sure to follow me on

public.com and also download the public

app because i probably won't be buying

options i'll probably just be buying

shares and then you can watch me trade

on public.com

go to public.com to download the app and

then you can follow me on the public app

i'm at meet kevin on public but anyway

what i'd be looking for is some kind of

diversified basket of probably 20 to 30

different recovery stocks the reason i'd

want to do different recovery stocks is

because remember how earlier i said

we're going to have probably already had

enough

stuff we've got enough dishwashers and

apple and things and products we're

going to go back to services and so

going back to in fact that might even

mean when we look at tech and ev we want

to specifically pay attention to

potentially

services

rather than something like an apple

maybe we're a little bit heavier into

something that's more uh like a service

like like a google right over apple who

knows it's just an idea okay now 20 to

30 recovery style stocks i'm not going

to list them all here but think some

that we might put in here we might put

ccl in here carnival cruise lines we

might put dave and busters in here we

might put norwegian cruise lines in here

uh

nclh no reason cruise lines holdings

there we go uh we might put cheesecake

factory in here we might put nordstroms

in here or macy's in here although these

are going to be a little bit more in

that product direction again right so

personally i'm probably going to prefer

things like wind resorts and things that

are more service-based once we get out

of delta once we hit that inflection

point so remember earlier in the video

we talked about maybe staying away from

stuff i'm going to do the same thing

with tank and evs even though i know evs

are a form of stuff

but also when i pick my recovery basket

probably pick 20 service style

businesses to really throw some money

into once we transition

from all this peak fear just fear not

actually cases but fear over oh my gosh

delta lockdown talk blah blah blah blah

and at this point that's when i want to

switch over and get into a nice recovery

basket uh it i'm not going to dump all

my

tech and stuff i've really already been

kind of closing out a lot of my call

options on tech

even though i think tech can do well

implied volatility has been plummeting

so i'm kind of trying to close out call

options as much as possible and i'm

hoarding cash and i haven't really been

buying unless i see a big opportunity i

did buy the robin hood dip when we dip

down to 34.21 i send an alert to

everybody in the stocks in psychology

buddy group i'm like i'm fine robin hood

some people like oh my gosh how could

you buy robinhood it's down 10 today i'm

like

exactly

but anyway so these these are some of my

thoughts right now in terms of where to

put money now i do want to talk about

crypto a little bit make it clear also

none of this is financial advice right

we're just playing playing the game of

the market right now so what do i think

about krypto

well i have a long thesis on crypto

especially ethereum ada and bitcoin and

i think they're going to do very well in

2022 if we end up getting more stimulus

packages under the guise of bailing out

americans because of covet 2.0 aka delta

then i think crypto could do very well

crypto last year at some parts seemed to

trade with tech until about november

when it really traded with the 600 1400

stimulus packages and we started having

inflation fears come back so in fact

possibly a better thing to do

is when we go over here and we start uh

you know inflation takes the back seat

over here maybe when inflation

takes the front seat again over here

this is potentially when we go

uh back into crypto now recently i've

already bought the dip around 29k

bitcoin 29 30k bitcoin i've been sending

alerts for that uh sitting here at 39

040 000 not that enthused about loading

up on crypto right now

so those are some thoughts about crypto

as well either way after this delta

madness once this whole thing is gone

it's very possible we're going to taper

with the federal reserve quickly and

u-turn for

a position where potentially rates start

moving up by the end of 2022

that potentially is going to weaken

tech and the euphoric rally in tech

weaken high-value stocks because finally

the taper is happening and finally rates

are going to up going up which means

we're softening future earnings at tech

companies but that all happens later

so let's draw that on the sheet really

quick so if we go

in sort of this this phase one over here

let's call it phase one lockdown talk

inflation takes a back seat we uh have

this flight to safety tech and ev

specifically services less stuff

and delta goes up under fear that might

be phase one phase two would be having a

recovery basket over here lockdown talk

goes away delta goes away tech and ev

start rotating down but the recoveries

do well inflation comes back to the

forefront because inflation potentially

comes back to the forefront depending

how bad things go it's very possible

that the federal reserve is going to

taper quicker than expected

and

ultimately we see that rate increase

rates go up at the end of 2022 so i'm

definitely going to want to be away from

like tech options and things like that

but and i probably won't play recovery

options because i'm probably just going

to want to huddle these things but we'll

see so those are uh those are some of my

thoughts let me see if i wrote down

any other particular notes here nope

that's it okay great we did very well

go to public.com meet kevin thank you

very much for watching this video i

appreciate you this was a lot longer

than i expected it to be you're amazing

you rock thank you very much and we'll

see you in the next one thanks bye

[Music]