Nastiest Warning Yet: What Jerome Powell (Fed) JUST Said.

boom shut down wow jome one heck of op

pressor we got a lot to cover in this

one from transitory inflation is back

two cuts forecast for the year a dirty

bear lives inside of the Federal Reserve

building we got to talk about that and

can we just I mean if we look listen if

we took a shot for every time they use

the word uncertainty first of all we'd

be dead second of all we'd probably

start scratching our heads a little bit

and wondering maybe what they're telling

us isn't exactly what they think is

going to happen so we we get a lot to

break down here but first of all look

overall this is exactly what we thought

the Fed was going to give us in fact

this morning in our Alpha report we

talked about how we thought the NASDAQ

100 via the qqqs would run all the way

up to 484 off of the level that we got

which was around 476 which by the way

intraday is a huge movement for Nasdaq

what did we get we did get exactly that

we got about

485 this is the kind of stuff we talk

about daily you see it on the channel

I'll keep bringing it to you but if you

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the fundamental analysis so for now

though we got to talk about this fed

warning because there was a warning

buried in this and I'll tell you we

actually did pretty dang well with Bingo

as well look at this the green here are

the ones we hit we got Bingo twice over

when do we get Bingo twice

over we'll talk about all of it first

let's get into the most critical stuff

so Jerome Powell towards the end of the

presser gave us something we've really

never paid attention to before he

brought us to page 11 and 12 of the

summary of economic projections saying

look we're holding rat steady but

something has changed in terms of the

forecast we're giving you we're

basically telling you to your face that

the forecast we're giving you aren't

really worth anything anymore he's used

the word uncertainty probably at least

50 times during this pressor but he

actually even pointed us to the chart in

case it wasn't obvious enough that the

FED has no freaking clue what's going to

happen they pointed at this chart and

said our uncertainty is now way higher

than it was in December the December

projections are the dotted line right

here and everything has gone to the

higher side higher to the upside in

other words we have no idea now why is

that happening I think it's happening

because the Federal Reserve just spent

an hour and a half telling us I mean

this is the summary right here this line

is your

summary the her data is really good

things are hugely good the Soft Data

okay that's like your your takeaway

from this bluntly put the hard economic

data like actual real uh uh data that's

being reported from January and December

and Q4 still great things are still

moving wonderfully the leading

indicators the Soft Data are really bad

but fortunately the FED has a solution

for you the FED is letting you know that

don't worry this time is different and

transitory inflation is back all the

Soft Data is going to crap because of

tariff uncertainty in fact Jerome Powell

bluntly defended the surveys and the

soft data by saying look when you look

at the details of the surveys they all

talk about tariff uncertainty and

honestly he's right he is right about

that when you look at the isms when you

look at the pmis when you look at the

University of Michigan sentiment surveys

when you look at any report everybody

talks about tariff

uncertainty Jerome Powell says we'll

know very quickly if tariff uncertainty

and the Soft Data ends up translating

into bad hard data that is a pretty big

warning for you now he doesn't give us a

time frame for that he just says well no

very quickly so what kind of time frame

could we potentially know if this Soft

Data is going to turn into bad hard data

and if we have bad hard data things

could probably get bad very quickly talk

about why in just a moment what time

frame could we potentially have well we

know that tariffs are expected to take

full effect April 2nd if we kick the can

down the road on that may be no big deal

right but if tariffs take effect April

2nd when do we start seeing the hard

data of pain in April well you're going

to see it in May and you're going to see

it in the middle of June because in that

6 week period is when you get the hard

data for April so we are in the middle

of March right now which means the next

3 months will probably be the tail as to

whether or not we are going to dump into

a recession or not in other words Jerome

Powell is telling you to your face hey

everything's good right now as we

expected him to say but he's also

telling you the next 3 months could be

an sh9 t-shir

because if this Soft Data turns into

hard data it's a problem and the bond

Market's already reacting to this

somewhat in fact if you look at the

spread between the 2year down 5.7 basis

points and the 10year down 2.7% you can

see the spread is actually widened today

not much we're still only at somewhere

around 27 28 basis points spread apart

but the fact that the two is falling

faster than the 10 suggests both of

these sides are saying okay all right

we're going to go with a lower growth

Outlook why because their GDP forecasts

were reduced by about 10% we'll show

that in just a moment but the spread

widening is a concern once we get to a

spread of about 50 to 90 it's usually

because we're in a recessionary shock

and that shock could appear within the

next 3 months which is interesting

because what I'm telling a lot of folks

is now could be a potential time to look

at the debts you have and the margin you

have and get out of debt take advantage

of the little rallies that we're getting

the bounce that we're getting on Powell

get out of debt don't get screwed if we

go into a recession if we don't go into

a recession in the next three to six

months no problem all in by the dip baby

let's go we're going back to the moon

but I'm just telling you where my money

is going and where my mouth is going

it's very clear I just put $5 million

this isn't it's not like oh I just

bought a stock and I bought $200 of a

stock and I'm trying to make a YouTube

video on it to farm content I'm being

blunt with you $5 million right into

something that I think does well counter

cyclically in a recession and pays me a

yield oh spoiler many of you already

know this it's house hack yeah it's my

company I'm biased okay house act.com

you already know about this non

accredited investors by the way I

haven't announced that yet but it's open

right now we're quietly launching that

but what's remarkable

is I think that as you get towards the

end of this year you're going to have

the answer did we stick to soft Landing

or not and you want to be prepared for

both realities are you going to buy the

dip on on uh stocks now now or are you

going to wait for when jpow actually

freaks out because that's the next

warning he gave you and I want to be

prepared for that jpow freak out that's

the best time to buy stocks that's the

best time to buy real estate that's what

we're prepping for so what is the jpow

freak out and how are we going to get

the Freak Out based on what he told us

today we made it very clear nationally

we are not seeing layoffs right now

however and these are his words an

increase in layoffs would move up

unemployment

fast that's a huge warning because I

want you to put this puzzle together for

a moment he just told you we have no

fracking idea what's going on our

forecasts are worthless that's that's in

writing he told you we have no idea

what's going on what we do think is that

things got a little bit worse in fact we

wrote down our GDP projections from 2%

to 1.8% but we don't really think the UN

employment rate is going to go up really

so in your forecast you say you don't

think the unemployment rate is going to

go up but in your discussion you go yeah

if we see a an increase in layoffs the

unemployment rate is going to go up

immediately so the only thing the only

glue holding this all together is we

don't see broad National based layoffs

yet Jerome Powell if you listen very

closely said if we see National level

layoffs we're going to have to move very

quickly in English they're going to have

to cut rates very rapidly which is very

interesting it presents some Curious um

opportunities for investing but I want

you to know the FED just got more

bearish at least well one person did

look at this this is the December

projection

of GDP forecasts in 2025 nobody was

under 1.6 in 2026 we got one person at

1.4 27 we got one person at 1.4 that's

not that dirty of a bear but what

happened in today's summary of economic

projections you may have missed scroll

down to it look at the dirty bear One

Soul at the Federal Reserve is panicking

we have never seen one person at the

Federal Reserve panic yet this cycle

this is the start of panic this is the

start of panic where one person at the

Federal Reserve says crap this Soft Data

could roll over into layoffs very

rapidly and things could change

extremely quickly now who knows maybe it

won't happen maybe we won't have the

bearishness and we don't have a that

would be great because the suffering is

going to be terrible it's going to be

really hard to get J jobs when layoff

Skyrocket thanks to AI in part it's

going to be really hard to get people to

hire again so I'm not looking forward to

that but I do think as a human being

person to person like you want to join

the me Kevin membership that's fine you

want to invest in house that's fine but

just as a human to Human whether you

whether you support the channel whether

you're a hater whether you're a lover a

subscriber an investor or just a watcher

whatever please protect your downside

because you might look at this fed

meeting and go oh J jpow told us

everything is fine and the stock market

went

up you're missing the boat I think

you're getting blatantly lied to because

frankly if the Federal Reserve told you

what they truly thought instead of them

telling you our forecast isn't worth

anything uncertainty is up and they

actually

said Soft Data is a leading indicator of

pain to come this Market would be

dumping now I want you to look at and

and I I don't have any puts or calls

okay this doesn't matter well with the

exception of the bond market but that's

a hedge um so but I'm not you know

benefiting in one way or another in my

opinion off off of this stuff I'm just

trying to give it to you straight

because I like I I want to be here for

you for the next 60 years talking to you

about Powell you know in 60 years I be

no guess what fans doing you know like

so I I want to preserve that Integrity

of always giving you my honest opinion

of what's going on look at what we got

on Bingo I've never been this damn good

at bingo before okay so please like the

video for that but damn this was good

Bingo okay jpow brings a Windows laptop

son of a gun brings a Windows laptop

okay

damn anyway we got the classic do a

mandate hey why did you remove the

balance of wrist oh that's not that

useful anymore okay pal labor market is

healthy yeah right now it is hire for

longer if the data continues on this

course fine JP asked somebody to repeat

a question and abruptly cut somebody off

about politics says right now we don't

have a recession in the data he doesn't

see layoffs coming right now and the

economy is in good fa shape I even WR

wrote everything is fine picture

SpongeBob with the fire in the

background but him saying everything is

fine avoid suggesting the labor market

could roll over he does but he makes it

pretty clear that if it does they're

going to have to move very fast and this

this if you listen to the conversation

honestly like I kind of want to go

through and pull a transcript of this I

don't know if we'd be able to get it

this quickly but it would be fascinating

to go to the Federal Reserve board and

pull a transcript of this meeting and

count how many times they use the word

that's not up yet count how many times

they use the word uncertainty and it is

going to be the most the largest count

we've ever seen before now now that I've

gone through some of these warnings here

the bear inside of the fed and this talk

about we're sort of like on the Teeter

of potentially Soft Data turning into

bad hard data within the next three

months let's go through a little bit

more of what jpow said so recent

indications point to a moderation in

consumer spending okay duh it remains to

be seen how this affects future spending

he literally opens up with yeah some of

the recent data sucks and we don't

really know what this is going to do yet

I mean I think he's being as blunt as he

can telling you just be careful then he

talks about how there are four major

changes underway because of trump trade

immigration regulation fiscal spending

okay red flag because we don't know what

the outcome's going to be he says if the

economy remains strong we can maintain

if the labor market were to weaken

unexpectedly or inflation were to fall

faster we'd be able to lower rates I

think both of those are going to happen

I think you're going to get a weaker

labor market rapidly and you're going to

get rapid disinflation because of that

and they're cutting to zero so that's my

that's my opinion I'm always trying to

separate though my opinion from fact so

you can make your own opinion I think

you're smart enough to make your own

opinion uh short-term inflation

expectations are up we need the tariffs

though fine okay this was interesting

then he gets into this whole thing about

how inflation's going to be transitory

because of tariffs and he had this sort

of like mic drop moment where somebody's

like wait isn't this the same thing you

said last time and then Pal's like well

what do you mean last time are you

talking about the last time we had

tariff and the guy's like no no the

pandemic and this was hilarious Trump or

um pal was like oh okay just checking

because the last time we said inflation

was transitory on tariffs we were right

inflation was transitory and we think

inflation is going to be transitory

again this time on tariffs and then like

oh you know but the pandemic caus

inflation and then Pal's like well this

time's different

okay there are a lot of funny memes we

can make out of that let's just be like

straight about

it if Soft Data weakens is not not going

to be any inflation you're going to have

a deflation uh in which case power will

prove to be right that these tariffs are

transitory now the reality is the Tariff

and the uncertainties around tariffs

could actually be leading to this

massive pull forward in demand

inappropriately leading the economy to

look a lot stronger than it is and it

just comes crashing down when we get the

hard data between now and June who knows

but what I've never seen before is japal

discounting

surveys japal multiple times H you know

the relationship between surveys and

data isn't very tight we're going to

wait for data like real data blah really

jpow now all of a sudden discounting the

same surveys they used to pay very close

attention to hm red flag to me but okay

uh National level of layoffs not that

high yet that's fine he says hey yeah

the odds of recession have gone up based

on what forecasters see but those odds

have only gone up from a very low level

so maybe we're not seeing that uh 2

months ago the odds of recession were

very low the latest bad University of

Michigan data is an outlier this is

weird this sort of like discounting it's

unusual hard data is still pretty solid

Soft Data reflects

uncertainty uh we we slowed you know we

didn't obviously change rates today we

slowed the balance sheet runoff to me

them slowing the balance sheet runoff is

the reverse vacuum cleaner like they're

they're sucking up less money from the

economy cuz FR frankly the economy needs

the liquidity right now uh mostly

because I think they see there is a real

chance you could fall off the cliff over

here uh he literally said phrases like

uncertainty is remarkably High never

seen this sort of uh phrasing from him

before he says we're well positioned to

move in either direction the hard data

is in good shape but the Soft Data

signals quote significant concerns and

downside risks so in other words he says

the the incoming data sucks it's not

hard data yet but the leading data

really really sucks and then his

response to that is but we don't want to

get ahead of

that oh man okay so you want to be

behind it again all right then he's

asked about the Doge dividend and he

says of course I'm not going to

speculate on that so interesting kind of

blowoff but I mean if you put all of

this together on balance yes it it was a

Powell who gave us what we wanted it was

a Powell who came out to you swinging

and said damn that me Kevin membership

is hell of a good deal Kevin's going to

be raising the prices on those soon CU

you know that's what we always do they

start out with a low price and the price

goes up over time but to get access to

all of that for less than a buck 70 a

day why would you not sign up for that

and at least give it a shot especially

since you can cancel after you know

anytime if you don't want your

subscription to renew but I don't think

you will I think you're going to love

the alpha report and the course member

lives and the access to the courses and

the new content the trail whatever

anyway reality here is to sum this all

up there's a bear inside of the Federal

Reserve and jpow is ignoring the Soft

Data in favor of the hard data we

haven't seen this from Powell before but

he gave markets What markets wanted to

hear he gave by the dippers what they

wanted to hear and honestly like I feel

responsible for being part of the buy

the dip generation because I mean we got

the song by the

dip I'm just personally not in that that

mood right now maybe I'm just broken and

I'll be back soon I can't wait to be

back to Mr buy the dip I really can't I

I prefer Mr byy the dip but it's just

not me right now I don't believe that

this is a time to buy the dip I think

this is a horrible time to buy equities

uh and I I would be trimming my risk on

any bounce that we get and I'd be

diversifying to something else that's my

take I'm sorry I'm a dirty bear but I

think like studying Powell for as long

as I have in the Federal Reserve I mean

I've been making videos on Powell since

the end of 2017 okay maybe the beginning

of 2018 like we went through the whole

last tariff cycle and I'm like buy the

dip this is all and it was

great 2020 buy the dip you know

beginning of 2022 I'm like this is going

to suck you might consider selling

markets go down for eight months nine

months in a row and then we talk Nike

Swoosh and we got the recovery yeah this

this Trump Euphoria and this pull

forward this has been pretty euphoric

and that's why I think it a good

opportunity to takes some Mone off the

table do I think it's going to continue

no that's my opinion in terms of facts

though I've never seen Powell this

uncommitted to the Future and this

discounting of survey data that we're

getting I think it's a red flag that's

my take anyway thanks so much for

watching really appreciate y'all we'll

see yall in the next one and uh good

luck out there a wonderful day go check

out me kevin.com house.com if you want

and um really appreciate y'all you know

it's uh it is nice uh being able to do

these live streams and and and chat with

y'all uh so um uh good good to see you

anyway we'll see you in the course

member live streams and other videos

thanks so much goodbye good luck