CRITICAL Market Flip Flop | The Great Reset.

Michael burry has made a massive shift

Warren Buffett has added a brand new

position one that we've analyzed in our

course member live stream uh just two

weeks ago and boy do I have some

opinions on this position Federal

Reserve expectations earnings from

Walmart Home Depot and monday.com are

things we've got to talk about and an in

crazy A crazy crazy crazy inflationary

shocker that just came out this morning

let's talk about all of this as well as

a quick little update on scumbags Sam

bankman freed folks remember 60 off

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what are the updates same bankman freed

big scumbag I think this guy deserves to

sit next to Bernie Madoff I am so

terribly sorry I was ever associated

with this guy I failed and I effed up

and I feel like crap daily about this

okay but at least

there are alcohol passes on here there's

no driving

so Sam bankman freed this guy is such a

trickster that he is now screwing with

the bots on Twitter here's how this

works if you delete a tweet on Twitter

there are Bots that will post a

screenshot of what you deleted but not

if you if your Tweet count doesn't

change and you trick the bots so what's

Sam Beekman free doing he's posting

tweets one letter at a time at the same

time as these deleting old tweets and

burying them but he's been exposed

already for doing this by the smart and

quite critical people on Twitter but

it's quite interesting and it just shows

you how Shady this guy is stagflation 92

and these numbers might change after

today's numbers after today's

inflationary numbers but stagflation

estimates are that 92 two percent of all

investors right now believe that we have

a very real risk of stagflation what

does that mean well dang it means that a

lot of people are pricing in paying for

markets Federal Reserve pricing is still

sitting at an expectation that the FED

will hike to five percent and will

likely hold at five percent all year

long most major banks are sitting

between a uh four to five percent

terminal rate expectation with Wells

Fargo Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg coming

in between five and five and a quarter

percent JPMorgan 475 Morgan Stanley four

five Barclays four five and Deutsche

Bank four percent now remember if those

numbers those estimates get moved down

markets go up if those estimates move up

markets move down it's very simple in

case you're wondering why the S P 500

moves everything has to do with

expectations for the Federal Reserve now

before we talk about Warren Buffett and

Michael burry's crazy shift I want to

touch on some earnings really quick

Walmart finally only grew inventories at

12 percent they're finally getting a

handle on inventories transactions up

remember we don't look at sales anymore

sales is a stupid number because when

they're like oh sales are up eight

percent we're like Oh yeah duh

inflation's up eight percent so your

real growth is zero so uh transactions

actually up at Walmart especially the

grocery division so that that's a two

two point one percent excuse me increase

here their ad business up thirty percent

so actually growing decently on their ad

business which I don't actually know

that much about their ad business

which is kind of fascinating because it

is a newer aspect to their business but

most advertising businesses are actually

suffering and declining right now on

growth although trade desk actually

surprised and did pretty dang decently

relative to how others are doing trade

desk and their CEO which is by the way

located in my hometown Ventura

California they actually argue that

during these recessionary times they

think they'll be able to take more

market share than some of the more

traditional forms of advertising uh like

Google or Facebook I don't know if

that's true but that's what they argue

so a lot more people apparently going to

Walmart and when you get those middle to

Upper end consumers shifting down to

Walmart they can oftentimes be a little

sticky in in staying with Walmart as far

as Home Depot Home Depot did not fare as

well Home Depot saw transactions that

decline quarter over quarter and gave a

little bit of a weaker guide there is a

little bit of a sign that we're still

seeing people spend at Home Depot

because as they wrap up projects I'm

really wishing I can get some details on

how many people are spending or how much

money is being spent on things like

moldings and paint which are considered

finished jobs in construction compared

to two by fours which are generally your

raw material sort of beginning of

projects uh tasks should I say or

purchases I'd love to get some detail on

that but the earnings calls going on

right now so we don't have that yet but

pay attention to that we are seeing

lower guide though and inventory to

sales spreads and narrowing suggesting

slower or slipping orders and weaker

demand in the future monday.com

saw an inflection point in their

customer Resource Management sales in

September and October and mentioned that

what used to just be European stress is

now starting to become Global stress

we're seeing this from a lot of

companies a lot of companies are telling

us that oh yeah all of a sudden in

September and October we started hating

a wall this doesn't really surprise me

because we're finally actually seeing

the impact of the federal reserve's

tightening and it really aligns with the

layoffs we're seeing especially the

corporate layoffs at Amazon remember

these are not seasonal layoffs we're

actually seeing programmer layoffs

corporate layoffs of the Alexa divisions

getting hit hard I think they might

actually end up closing that entire

division down apparently just not

profitable to do a voice yet sorry

garyvee Federal Reserve we already

talked about Federal Reserve

expectations hedge funds okay we have a

lot of hedge funds actually cutting

Tesla D1 cut at stake by 48 Catal cut by

16 and a 48 cut is pretty large uh one

of the things to know is that Tesla has

also slashed its orders uh Elite its

order lead times to just one week now I

think the mainstream media is going to

jump on this and go oh my gosh this is

bad Tesla Lead times only one week look

Tesla demand plummeting I actually think

the opposite is going to happen of

course I'm a Tesla bull so take what I

say with a grain of salt I always like

to be aware of my biases uh and and of

course the biggest bias that I have is

uh suggesting that you should check out

those courses because nobody nobody

works harder than I do and nobody is

going to provide you more value in those

courses if you don't see something that

you expect to be in those courses you

make sure you write me a message in

Discord you tag me and that lecture will

be there by the end of the year that's

just what I'm doing I'm gonna keep

making videos because I love y'all and

if it ain't there you tag me in Discord

I'm gonna go through it all by the end

of this year and we're gonna have more

lectures we're using that Blackboard

until that Blackboard breaks but anyway

I think the mainstream media is going to

go oh this is bad you know demand down I

actually think it's going to be free

advertising because everybody's gonna go

what I only have to wait a week to get a

Tesla this is great news now obviously

there's a risk that demand does collapse

if demand collapses Tesla stock will

collapse sorry and sorry me if demand

does not collapse which I think a demand

collapsing is like a 15 risk if demand

does not collapse uh then I think Tesla

surges especially once the Twitter drama

settles down I think there's an 85

chance of that okay now let's talk about

Warren buff and Michael burry Michael

burry out of shorts he's going heavy on

private prisons increasing his bets on

the Geo Group uh core Civic both private

prisons and a curate retail private

prison he's also ditched Facebook and

Google interesting that he ditched

Google I mean Facebook I don't blame him

for I think that's a stupid bet on the

metaverse but anyway uh okay my take on

private prisons look I remember debating

private prisons back when I was in high

school which uh you know was only a

couple years ago uh just kidding but I

used to debate private prisons in speech

and debate uh in student Congress and

and listen the amount of debate that has

gone into private prisons uh will

probably never end uh I think our

political environment is such that we

can make no radical changes and I am a

highly uh let me put it this way I'm a

dis I'm in disbelief that our government

will ever actually fully move over to

private prisons but then again hey there

are private prisons so maybe these

companies can make really good money uh

Without Really government expansion I

just see it as a little bit of kind of

like a marijuana play where you're

relying on the government and anytime

you're relying on the government you're

relying on political chance and and dude

political chance I don't know but we do

think that Trump will announce his uh

president uh campaign presidential

campaign tonight

hedge funds cut Amazon uh actually in a

mixed way nine million shares bought on

net 121 funds increase their positions

100 decrease their positions uh

Princeton completely sold out of lithium

America has cut their entire stake you

know I ran the numbers because I've seen

lithium prices run up a lot I think the

amount of lithium that goes into a Tesla

battery for a car is only like four or

five hundred bucks which is kind of

interesting because we've seen lithium

prices Skyrocket over the past few

months and I'm like oh man that's going

to squeeze margins for Tesla but then

I'm like ah but if prices go up 20 for

lithium it really only costs maybe 80

bucks more for a battery now I mean

that's still something but uh it's it's

not as big of a component as I thought

it was for uh Tesla which is good news

there Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett

adds a bit more Chevron up to stake 23

on Occidental and decreased his

Activision bet by 12 remember his

Activision bet is a bet that Activision

will be acquired I think it's for like

in the 90 or some something like that

it's an Arbitrage bat Viking adds to

Salesforce and Michael burry I think I

already mentioned has no shorts

that sounds weird anyway uh okay now now

now now we got to talk about the

inflationary numbers okay so we had

really good CPI numbers right so what

came after these really good CPI numbers

well today producer price number so CPI

is from the consumer's perspective

producer is from the seller's

perspective okay so there's a buyer like

you and me going to buy a PC uh at let's

say Walmart or Best Buy actually I'm not

sure why you would buy a PC there versus

just building your own or buying it

online but definitely not well I'm not

going to say anything anymore

Kevin Kevin with the tangents uh the

seller's perspective would be like

Walmart's perspective how much is it

costing them to go buy that PC to put on

the shelf right okay expectation was

core month over month point three

percent we got zero baby flat let's go

uh we were expecting headline point four

percent which would be 4.8 annualized we

got

0.2 that's 2.4 percent annualized let's

go very very good and headline year over

year expecting 8.3 and we got

eight both really really good numbers

manufacturing survey came in much higher

than expected we were expecting negative

six percent for manufacturing which is a

sort of a recessionary indicator we got

4.5 percent with uh prices little

changed and the first folks for PPI the

first Services decline uh in a producer

price inflation readings with a reading

of 0.1 percent negative First declines

since November of 2020. so obviously

markets are rallying uh hard on this

yields for treasuries are plummeting

this is this is phenomenal news this is

great news uh very very bullish

obviously for cyclicals growth uh and uh

let's see if we can sustain it between

now through December but this is a this

is a second data point now that's really

really good and if this holds up in

December

we're going back to the Moon baby get

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