Trump JUST RUGGED US | Stocks Drop

Well, it's official. The Bureau of Labor

Statistics is cancelling the October

release of jobs data and delaying the

November release of data until after the

next Federal Reserve meeting. You would

think that the Bureau of Labor

Statistics, if they're going to skip an

entire month of data, would at least try

to hurry up the November data so they

could give the Federal Reserve

something. But no, as a result, markets

are not very happy. now predicting only

a 28% chance that we'll get a cut in

February, which in my opinion increases

the risk of a substantial policy mistake

from the Federal Reserve. It doesn't

help that Goldman Sachs is suggesting we

would have had a negative 50,000

payrolls read if they actually released

the October jobs data. That is a

problem. You can see that right here. We

estimate that the unemployment rate was

unchanged. That's the rate on a rounded

basis. However, looking ahead, we expect

the October non-farm payrolls, this was

written before they canceled it, to

show50,000.

Now, of course, markets would have then

added back in the federal government's

job losses because a lot of these job

losses would have were expected to show

up in September and October because of

the Doge cuts in February. But the

problem is the federal government has

been one of the last legs that has been

hiring. So, a lot of people would have

looked at, okay, well, even aside from

that, how good would the jobs data have

been? And unfortunately now with the ADP

trackers and challenger job reports

suggesting that layoff increases,

planned layoff increases are

accelerating and we're not getting the

jobs data that would have been pretty

ugly. You can't help but think,

especially after Donald Trump fired the

head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics

for, you know, politically motivated

data. You can't help but think it's

oddly convenient that Donald Trump and

his new BLS head are just going to

happen to cancel what would have likely

been the worst jobs report of the year,

October J jobs data. Now, of course,

they can conveniently just blame that on

Democrats, even though Republicans

totally dug in their heels, which they

usually don't do. And then as soon as

October passed and we were getting ready

to get towards Thanksgiving, we happened

to start making Democrats some promises

convincing, you know, a group of eight

Democrats to to uh, you know,

essentially extend the u the government

funding uh some parts of the government

all year, some parts through uh the end

of January. And so all of a sudden, you

happen to get exactly what Donald Trump

wants. Monkey see no evil. Nobody's

going to tell me my job's data is bad.

Now, you might be thinking, "But wait a

minute, Donald Trump would want the Fed

to cut." True, but Donald Trump also

doesn't want egg on his face with a

giant negative jobs report. And he

doesn't want the self-fulfilling

potential prophecy of what happens when

companies start realizing, oh, must be

okay to fire because as soon as that

cycle starts, it doesn't end quickly.

Now, of course, right now, artificial

intelligence is propping everything up.

I mean, we've got Michael Bur posting,

you know, another piece on X. Michael

Bur's recent ex post is this letter from

1999 where there's this discussion about

how uh Buffett should buy Apple stock

which was very early for its time but in

it is really this argument that you

really should this is from Michael Bur

mind you uh you shouldn't just follow

the crowd and buy things because they're

popular because there's a limit to how

much you could pay for a stock and you

should be aware of those limits. I mean

this morning for example we were looking

oh well this was one of the fundamental

analyses we were doing on the course

member live stream this morning we're

like this is terrible you know for super

microcomput along with looking at

margins and otherwise we were looking at

fastly and target and otherwise but I

mean and cats out of the bag now usually

I just keep this stuff for the alpha

report this is the kind of stuff we do

fundamentally plus technical basis we

got a coupon code expiring by the way

for the alpha report meet.com get your

tax write off likely tax write off but

anyway We're we're like, "Wow, look at

this." Listen, just let me read this to

you because it kind of leans into what

Michael Bur is saying a little bit. The

919.5 million revenue or 15.5%

decrease in net sales was primarily due

to the timing of several substantial

orders that were only received in late

September. So, in other words, which

they weren't able to ship in time, if

they didn't get those September orders,

SMCI would have had an even worse

report. Like, their pricing power is

shrinking. Their revenues are shrinking.

And it's weird because you hear this

boom because of, you know, Gemini, but

it makes you wonder, is that boom going

to continue to be broad-based? And this

is something we were questioning as well

this morning. When we look over here, we

could see, you know, Gemini 3's

performance. And you can really go in

two directions here. One, companies fail

and go bankrupt thanks to Google. Or

two, companies lash out and want to

spend more. Obviously, the bullish

theory is that companies lash out and

want to spend more. But it also just

increases the risk that you need more

deficit financing, debt spending to

actually get XAI and OpenAI, you know,

profitable and actually get them to be

competitive. because right now Google is

destroying them and they're going to

have to take on even more debt. And it's

scary at a time where, you know, really

gay things are happening. I mean,

Grinder, you've got a stock crash that's

happening at Grinder, which is trading

for a 1.25 25 peg because literally the

owners of the company that own 60% of

the company pledged all of their Grinder

share shares to take out personal loans

and all of a sudden they're getting

margin called and they're getting their

stocks seized and they're getting

liquidated because they're margining

against their own company stocks to go

spend personal money. I hate to say it,

but that's also what Elon Musk is doing

with Tesla shares. He's pledging Tesla

shares to raise cash to try to pump

Tesla stock by buying some. So you

borrow against Tesla stock to go buy a

billion dollars of Tesla stock to try to

pump the stock to pump up the Tesla

shareholder base to get them to approve

your stock comp plan so you could borrow

more. So you could take that money and

go invested in XAI so you could prop up

this bet against Google

and you're borrowing even more. It's

scary. It's a lot of debt. It's a lot of

debt. I mean, we were looking that the

Grinder folks are literally going for

bailout financing from a company called

Fortress. And it took me a a minute to

remember where the Fortress Group came

in, but the Fortress Group came in in

2022 to provide a credit a bailout

credit agreement to Robin Hood. Sorry,

Red Robin. You know, the burger joint,

Red Robin. Yum. Well, guess what? When

Fortress comes in, it's usually a bad

sign that we're not ready for what's

coming. you are not prepared.

>> And it makes me nervous because again,

we're seeing more and more debt spending

for likely what are probably going to be

these commoditized products. At the same

time, the jobs data is bad. I mean, 67

67 67% of you in my live stream refuse

to pay for chat bots. And honestly, the

base level chat bots are getting pretty

damn good. And so now, here we go. The

BLS is rugpulling us on the October jobs

data, saying they'll give it to us in

November, but then that November data,

they're going to delay until after the

Fed meeting. So, we're literally

delaying jobs data another month. So,

we're going to get good September data.

This is like this has Trump engineering

written all over it. Give us good

September data and then go dark on the

markets for a month so we could try to

pretend that everything is fine. But

people are seeing through this and

what's happening is they're starting to

hedge. You know, I think it was in this

article where we had uh where they were

saying institutions are basically

starting to hedge against this. So, mind

you, I want to just finish the point

really quickly and then we'll look at

that hedging article. The BLS will not

publish October the October employment

situation. Somebody in the comments is

like, "Oh, but Kevin, how could they?

They didn't collect the data." Two forms

of data. the payroll's data. These are

job surveys that they keep coming in.

It's like envelopes that show up or

electronic surveys. They show up. Okay,

that still comes in. But them picking up

the phone and calling that data doesn't

get collected. So, I understand that.

But you could release half of the

report. You could release the data you

have, but they're not even doing that.

They're just going to kick the can down

the road until after the next Fed

meeting. And so now you're at less than

a third of a chance that you're actually

going to get a Fed rate cut in December,

which just increases the chance of the

Fed making a policy mistake because

you've got labor deteriorating, falling

off a cliff. Donald Trump is hiding the

truth of that data while at the same

time demanding rate cuts while at the

same time he's demanding rate cuts while

the Atlanta Fed GDP is skyrocketing.

We're at 4.2% now. Now, how do you put

all this together? because it seems like

that's good news that GDP is going up,

right? But GDP is going up in part

because trade is plummeting, imports are

plummeting. Look, Trump global tariffs

curtailed trade. Data shows imports of

goods and services dropped 5.1% in

August. This data comes out very slowly,

blah blah blah. The problem with that is

when imports fall, they artificially

make GDP look high. So I think the

greatest irony will be that we will end

up having this really high GDP report

because tariffs are falling or uh

imports are falling. So you're

artificially propping up GDP with AI

spend and with a lack of imports. And

the greatest rugpull is going to be us

actually going into a recession and then

people are going to go but Atlanta Fed

said we were like 4% positive GDP. Oh,

well that's only because of the data

abnormality of us uh having to, you

know, basically add back in uh uh the

fact that we were importing less. So

that just artificially propped up GDP

along with artificial intelligence

spend. Well, that's not great. That's a

bunch of fugazi. So everybody's taking

on more debt. The Grinder folks are

going bankrupt. The Wall Street Journal

is warning that a private credit winter

is coming and they say that the leading

indicator for this is lenders shifting

their focus on what they call realtime

covenant changes. They say, quote,

"There is no better leading indicator of

market psychology than real time

covenant changes, which is basically

smart money fortifying against a

downturn." There's the line I was

looking for. So smart money is

fortifying against the downturn. We see

this crap brewing. You know, we run uh a

fundamental analysis daily in in our

alpha report and we're looking at what's

actually fundamentally happening at

Target, for example, and some of these

companies that are like, "Everything's

fine. We're going to remodel our

stores." And then you go look at their

balance sheet and their cash flow

statements and you're like, "With what

money?" It's fugazi. Until these

companies keep taking on more debt, they

don't have money to pay for this. It's

the same at Target. It's the same at the

artificial intelligence companies. The

problem is, and I mean, we don't have to

rehash this, but the reality is

these private lending vehicles are such

a scary disaster that you literally see

that Blue Owl, who is just basically

trying to scam their shareholders.

That's my opinion. Okay. Blue Owl got

pretty much exposed for their scam and

now they're calling off the merger. So,

let me just briefly try to explain

what's happening here and I'm going to

give you the basic explanation because

in fairness, I don't fully understand it

either because it's so convoluted and I

do finance on a daily basis. But here's

basically what's happening. Okay,

there's a fund one and a fund two of

this owl company, this blue owl right

here. Okay, their company has lost like

40% in market value already. So, they're

already scrambling cuz they're like,

"Dude, our stock's plummeting." And

what's happening is they have these

little feeder funds that are selling for

less than book value. They're selling

for a 23% discount. So, the way you have

to look at this is like this. This is

what's happening at at Owl. You have

people are freaking out. Okay? So,

that's the foregone conclusion number

one. one smart money is fortifying

and getting out of these private credit

plays. Private credit uh winter is

coming with uh you know uh a

strengthening in loan covenants, right?

We know that. Okay. Owl fund one is

public. Okay. Then you have Owl uh fund

two that's not public. Okay. This one

has the right to redeem shares at 100%

value, NAV. This one trades at public

value, which is a negative 23% discount

to NAV. So investors here are losing

23%.

And they're dumping more. So that's why

so investors here are like, "Yo, let's

quickly get out here

of here before uh we can't anymore."

Okay, then Owl says, "Uh, no. Let's stop

withdrawals. I kid you not. Let's stop

withdrawals and come up with a better

idea. We'll redo withdrawals in

January." Okay? so that way they could

come up with a better scam. The problem

is so far their first attempt at a

better scam is failing. Calls off merger

between two private credit funds after

announcement rattles stock. Yeah, no

kidding. The firm planned to merge its

smaller non-traded Blue Owl Capital Corp

into the larger public traded entity

even as the merger would have meant 20%

losses. Right? So, they're trying to

stop the bleeding, but the bleeding's so

bad that the market's basically, "No,

like, hell no. F you. We don't want you

to put a bandage on this. That's my

opinion. Don't sue me, Blue Owl." Okay?

It's It's It's not my fault. You have

>> little PP.

>> It's not my fault. We are just looking

at what's actually happening. And I have

a feeling that if Donald Trump looked at

what you all were doing right now, he

would have a few choice words for you.

They don't know what the [ __ ] they're

doing.

>> Yeah, exactly. So, this is weird when

you put all this together. It's just

weird. Now, maybe this will all blow

over, you know? Maybe we'll find some

new catalyst to go buy Bitcoin. Like,

the economist is like, "Crypto got

everything it wanted. Now it's sinking."

Yeah. Cuz there's there's no like next

level catalyst is what the economist is

arguing. Like, everybody's already in,

right? Okay. So now you have a fugazi

propped up GDP. You have monkey seen no

evil on the jobs report where we're

literally getting rugged on even partial

data. We're not going to report the data

until after the Fed meeting which now

reduces the chance of a rate cut in

December which means we have even more

of a chance of a policy mistake. The

Federal Reserve's blackout window ends

on Black Friday. So next Friday or sorry

it starts on uh next Friday. Next

Friday, the Fed's gonna go, "No more

talking from the Fed." So, the Fed has a

week and two days left or one day left

to try to convince markets actually to

price in a rate cut, but they don't have

the data to do that. They're also

rugpulling the Jolts report for

September because these are always two

months behind. So, we're not going to

get the Jolts report that was due on uh

November 4th. And we will get the Jolts

report for October uh on uh December

2nd, sorry, December 9th, which will be

the day before the meeting. But we're

not going to get any jobs report other

than September, which should be the one

good one before the Fed meeting. Yet

somehow Donald Trump wants the Fed to

cut. Now again, I get it because Donald

Trump doesn't want the market to sell

off, so he has to call for cuts and hide

bad data. It's a little dictator-ish. I

hate to say it. I thought he was only

going to be a dictator on day one. I

didn't vote for Trump. Remember, I voted

for myself.

What we That's what I said I was going

to do at least. Did I vote for myself?

Did I write in meet Kevin? The only

guarantee I'll make you I'll clarify

that. The only guarantee I'll make is I

didn't vote for Trump. And I did

publicly say I might write in meet

Kevin. I can't run for president anyway.

But anyway, it doesn't matter who I

voted for. It doesn't. It really doesn't

matter. Uh I'm 5149. You know that. So

then you have Zero Hedge here

complaining about a short-term flip in

momentum signals,

which is bad. CTA selling in every

scenario. I I generally think you do the

opposite of what the CTAs do, but you

know, whatever. But look at this. They

also make this very interesting

argument. They go, why is it that since

October, gold is down, treasury bonds

are down, stocks are down, and Bitcoin

is down. Everything is going down. Why

are they going down? Well, Deutsche Bank

thinks everything is going down because

the Fed is going hawkish. But the Fed

can't go not hawkish. Why can't the Fed

not go hawkish?

Or or or why can't the Fed go doubbish?

CUZ THEY DON'T HAVE THE DATA.

They don't have data.

>> Data dependent.

>> But there's no data. The only thing

there is is

>> coupon code expiring. Sue coupon linked

below.

>> It's because that's why.

>> Yeah. So, these pressures are likely to

persist given that inflation is

lingering above target, right?

It's not great. Historically unusual

rally as well and a lot of debt. The

debt situation is crazy. It's absolutely

crazy.

Uh so,

I don't know. This is all wild and not

great to me. Now, what I also think is

wild, but I think is great is that a

wedge deal that we just bought with uh

House Hack uh we our our AI finder gave

it an A score of and we're kind of like

this is great. We're like reconciling

that literally where we're putting our

money is aligning with our AI finder.

So, I personally am pissed because I

don't want there to be, you know, some

market correction. I want this crap to

keep moving because I want to license

the crap out of our AI finder. This is

just like a background demo of the

picture. Uh, but like this will be

cleaned up a lot in our actual app, but

we score properties based on how good of

a deal we think they are for your net

worth.

And so this was an A score and it's

actually a property we bought and it's

great because it sort of reconciles with

like hey this is like our AI is working

right and so we can't wait to license

this soon. If you want to learn more

about that remember to go to reinvest.co

or houseack.com it's the same company.

You get 5% yield through conversion and

100% of the upside of the stock. read

the offering circular. There risks with

every investment, but you know, we're a

real estate back play with uh with the

artificial intelligence upside. Now, in

fairness, we're also prepared if there's

a recession. I was talking about this

earlier. I wrote this is my Kevin's evil

recession playbook. If there's a

recession, we take the $80 million of

real estate and cash

and we leverage that to the Well, don't

worry about what I wrote there. We

leverage that up which turns into a

potential $266 million book 186 mil of

loans at low interest rates which we

could then deploy into wedges which we

think we could turn into $40 million of

gains for the company. Obviously no

guarantees it takes time to do all that

right. That would put us at a 60% equity

or a debt to equity ratio which is

actually pretty reasonable if you do

that at like the bottom of a recession.

We are like so excited about what we

could do here. Like we think we have a

giant piggy bank. That's the evil

recession plan. But I'd rather no

recession. So, just being transparent

about that. But the numbers are not

great. You know, Bitcoin, we got another

chance to buy under 90,000. I don't own

any Bitcoin. Uh and um

and yeah, you know, so I see some

people, Kevin, why did you vote for

Trump? Oh, look at the 595 line. Alpha

report, baby.

Uh, I saw enough of Trump won that, you

know, while I knew it I knew there would

be some short-term enthusiasm for

business, I als I generally I don't want

to throw my hat on politics. So, I'd

rather vote for meet Kevin. But, um, but

I think some of the the short-term ploys

for business uh just break what we have

uh in in in our capitalistic markets and

just sort of accelerate the bad. And uh

I I'm not a fan of tariffs, you know

that. So economically, I think you're

just you you create a short-term bubble

that ends up hurting more people. But it

doesn't matter who I voted for. Like I

say, you know, I said I was going to

write in meet Kevin. Uh so I I don't it

doesn't matter. But anyway, the point of

all of this is just I'm very frustrated

because I wanted at least some data,

right? I wanted at least some data,

right? That's usually what I see. like

Ellis says better than the alternative.

I don't blame anybody for voting for

Trump because I understand that

sentiment. You know, there are a lot of

people are like, "But Kevin, like the

alternative." I hate that. Like that's

what that's why I'm like I'm just going

to write me Kevin because it's like why

can't we have like a good choice, you

know? I don't know. Uh what it did feel

like choosing between two evils. It is

what it is, I guess. But anyway,

somebody's like, "Why don't you run for

office again?" Because I think politics

is rigged. I think it's rigged and I

think it's a scam. So, I'm just going to

[ __ ] on everybody. I [ __ ] on Biden. I

[ __ ] on Trump. I [ __ ] on Kamla, Pelosis,

Newsome. I dump on them all. Okay, maybe

we can like gracefully unite against the

politicians. But anyway, I'm pissed. No

data, which means no setup for a rate

cut in December, which is bad for

yields, which is bad for the market

because the data get the market gets no

data. So, you actually increase

uncertainty for longer. It sucks. Yields

are flat on the day.

It sucks.

Anyway, that's what's going on right

now. And the good news is you can still

take advantage of the Meet Kevin report.

You get the Meet Kevin report by going

to meet Kevin.com. Not only can you get

the coupon code and guaranteed best

price, but you might be able to get a

tax write off as well. Get all the trade

alerts, all the courses, every private

live stream, the alpha reports. Your

membership includes it all. and meet

Kevin.com.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Pra there, financial analyst and

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

get your take.