Pray for This

hey everyone kevin here multiple updates

we're going to do a very quick and brief

update regarding the fed minutes what to

expect but more importantly we're going

to talk about what i've learned from

some earnings reports and i think

they're quite fascinating so first fed

minutes could be totally nothing could

be a nothing burger the last few minutes

i'd say like the last two minutes that

we've gotten absolutely nothing the

minutes that we got from december on

january 5th complete disaster really

started tanking uh the market even more

in january so yeah uh you could end up

having a very bad earning or very bad

day after and i would expect low volumes

to start the day and then things to uh

uh you know trading to actually take

place after these minutes come out and

uh for people to relax a little bit

hopefully because what are we looking

for we're looking for a fed that's going

to tell us all right look we're already

seeing demand start to moderate that's

what they want to do they want to see

demand moderate and uh we're hoping that

they give us some kind of guidance on

what their terminal target will be for

that fed funds rate the market is

pricing in 2.75 to three and we talked

about this yesterday that boss stick

started talking two and a half and the

market's like oh crap you guys are gonna

pause earlier than expected goldman

sachs put out a note going that's

basically what the market needs right

now in order to really have a chance of

actually going up is basically a softer

fed right and so we're going to be

looking at uh at core what what is the

fed's expectation on core inflation are

they seeing any meaningful signs yet so

far they've been saying yeah we're

seeing some signs but not consistent

enough yet so we'll see if the minutes

give us any a color i do want to talk

about some of these earnings so ryanair

i thought this was really interesting

they're the low-cost carrier in europe

which is actually where i am right now

i'm in germany and they say that quote

it seems evident we are going to have an

economic downturn if not a recession

they say the recovery is fragile and

that people will ultimately end up

moving into more price sensitive uh

companies when they spend money so kind

of like they made this analogy of

shopping at ikea or flying on ryanair

cheaper discounted this makes sense but

i do think it was very interesting that

they said it seems evident that we're

going to have an economic downturn that

could be because of europe which we

expect europe's going to have a harder

time than america toast on the other

hand and i thought this was really

interesting toast says that dining in at

restaurants is a 46 in q1 uh compared to

q1 of 2021 and they see that uh demand

is high restaurants still have pricing

power and they quote don't see any

evidence of a slowdown or material risk

on that front

yet

so well that's a good sign

lowe's talked about how when home values

are going up people see spending on

their home for home improvement or

remodeling as a quote investment not an

expense but this was also very

interesting for the housing market they

believe that excess demand is somewhere

between 1.5 to 2 million homes that

represents about 21 to 28

uh of of the amount of homes that we

sell they believe that's how much excess

demand there is for for extra homes

right now what's really interesting

about that is it kind of gives us a

little bit of guide well if interest

rates uh you know have gone up three

percent and that stops about 30

purchasing power is it possible that

real estate could just end the year flat

it's possible but lows could also be

wrong and other people could also pay

and excel like if investors start panic

selling well then not only have you now

absorbed the excess demand but now you

potentially end up having over inventory

in real estate right so obviously with

the home builder or the home numbers

miss that we had yesterday you started

seeing homebuilder stocks fall and

that's not a surprise

lowe's did notice a slowdown in sales in

april but they blamed the weather as an

excuse for that john deere sees no

improvement in freight which is

important for inflation until next year

although kind of i'm wondering if

they're

not seeing an improvement because

they're john deere and they ship massive

things uh so i think that's kind of

interesting there's also an interesting

report this doesn't matter so terribly

much but it's just kind of funny that

california has

the world's two worst ports long beach

and the port of los angeles that and

it's like no surprise to me that

california taxes people in their state

the most yet they have horrible

infrastructure and can't get their act

together it's quite sad

uh x-ping motors they said they had a

massive slowdown in april much like

tesla obviously uh because of the

lockdowns but they are already seeing a

robust and uh robust rebound and that

momentum is strong already for may and

getting those those orders coming back

so that's potentially something nice to

hear for tesla although they do still

complain about the chip shortage and

what's fascinating about the chip

shortages they gave a little bit of

color they're like look

we have like 5 000 chips in every single

car uh and it's not the big chips that

matter it's all of the tiny little cheap

ones that are like pennies for a chip

those are the ones that we're struggling

getting and i thought that was really

interesting because i got to think to

myself like yeah i mean they're probably

like five chips just for me to push a

button and like roll the window down you

know for a window and then you know

obviously multiply that by all the

functions of a vehicle anyway best buy

talked about how consumer electronics

the consumer electronics industry is in

decline but not to worry because we've

been planning for it and they don't see

a full-blown recession but they

definitely see a decline obviously we

saw the snap disaster and the line that

really ended up killing trade desk was

them going we believe platforms more

exposed to brand advertising are likely

experiencing a greater impact overall so

that really hurt uh canadians are really

unhappy according to a poll 41 of

canadians have worse finances today than

a year ago and 28 of canadians believe

their finances will continue to get

worse that's not good uh job market

starting to see some layoffs take up

this is kind of expected when we expect

demand to pull down

and the schwab ceo he bought the dip on

his own stock this stock's down 11

uh then one thing that i did want to end

on obviously in addition to suggesting

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uh remember that coupon expires at the

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stocks with the highest dividend yields

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the broader market broader markets down

like 20

18 though up 12 this year and uh it

seems like the s p 500 high dividend

index is up 2.8 so far in 2022. anyway i

gotta go now see ya