Important on: Jobs Recession, Tesla, Cathie Wood, & AI+Nvidia.

in this video we need to talk about the

labor market uh collapse or not we've

also got to talk about Tesla is it

actually going to go up or is it just

going to continue in the same trajectory

that Nvidia went today which surprise

was actually down over 3% on Nvidia

today is this the blowoff of the top

moment for artificial intelligence and

what does that mean for the rest of the

market in addition to that what is the

market pricing in when it comes to

interest rate probabilities we had some

fed speak over the last few days how do

we reconcile all of this and what do we

think about Cathy wood and her Tesla

prediction all this and more in this

video starting with a really cool

announcement tomorrow I will be starting

or beginning my Vegas event it's a 3-day

event and Kathy Wood will actually be

speaking at the event this is a super

big surprise I've not told told anybody

this until really the last hour here and

this video uh and it's really a way of

thanking everybody who had faith in

signing up for the Vegas event without

having the most clear picture possible

of exactly who is going to be there uh

and this is really exciting so it's a

last minute surprise we're super excited

about having Cathy and hosting Cathy and

we can't wait to have a wonderful event

uh with her speaking uh with me at the

event and uh joining in on our Q&A so

that'll be really cool uh you can learn

more about that event uh over at

meetkevin.com that's also where you'll

see that our next coupon code for the

stocks and psych course does expire on

the 28th uh the coupon code is debate

because that's the day Donald Trump and

Joe Biden will be debating each other

now I'm really excited for that day

mostly because I have no idea what to

expect other than it's going to be a

musty TV and probably an sh9t show but

that might be okay because frankly the

market has been a little boring the last

few days am I the only one who kind of

feels that after the FED CPI fed and CPI

reports of last week Market's kind of

been a little like Catalyst free so I've

been searching and I want to start with

the labor market and then testle on the

other things we were going to talk about

so the first thing is on the labor

market I found an argument this weekend

that I really found incredibly

compelling about the labor market and it

probably moves me a little bit on the

Kevin Bull bear scale remember Kevin's

bull bear scale is 10 I'm all in I'm in

margin like let's go we're going to the

Moon okay to the Moon in fact I got some

new sound effects here uh listen to this

tell me uh tell me uh who this sounds

like or whom this sounds like by the

dip uh or or how about this one coupon

linked below

here's another pricing

power

yeah so um anyway uh so little excited

just uh because I have this bull bear

scale and lately I've been at about a 6

and a half to a seven following the CPI

and fed reports but I've consistently

been a little nervous that the labor

market is going to roll over a little

faster than uh people would anticipate

uh We've started to see some

unemployment claims numbers start

ticking up a little bit and we've

started to see estimates from the FED

suggest they're okay with higher

unemployment rate the problem though is

once the unemployment rate goes up about

1% from a low historically it always

goes up another percent this is how we

trigger recessionary rules like the Som

rule which is flaring uh that we might

be going into a recession sooner than we

think which isn't great I'll pull that

rule up so you could see it uh it's a

Som rule indicator I've talked about it

on the channel before but since I

mentioned it here I wanted to bring it

up again this is what it looks like it's

basically just as it goes up you're more

likely to be confirmed as in a recession

what you're going to notice though it

doesn't Peak until after the recession

is usually over or almost over actually

in every case the rule peaked at the end

of the recession there here's a case in

82 where we're still technically a

little bit in a recession but usually

when the number goes positive it doesn't

go negative again absent a recession it

did over here in 86 so keep that in mind

we got up to about a 33 on the rule but

right now we sit over here at

37 so usually when we run up like this

we're getting ready for something like

what we saw here in ' 08 where you kind

of keep going up the do bubble where you

sort of keep going up uh over here in 74

where you keep going up until you're

actually committed to being in a

recession and so that's one of the

things that's concerned me a little bit

about okay well if we do end up having a

labor market weakening that is sudden

and uh faster than expected usually it

comes all at once you keep this in mind

as a tangent here a lot of people are so

concerned about what the consumer is

doing I think they forget that it

doesn't matter what the consumer is

doing even though the consumer is 70% of

the economy I understand that it matters

what jobs are doing because as long as

jobs are plentiful the consumer is going

to have buying power

they're going to have pricing

power if they don't have a job guess

what happens to their ability to consume

I'm just going to let you think about

that while I take a

sip they'll look like that

face not good in fact I probably have a

sound effect for that uh how

about

Reed double reed

so the jobs Market matters a lot and

I've been a little nervous about it

we've talked about this for a while

there's this data that came out uh or a

compilation of data that came out from

this particular group called um I don't

know how to pronounce this I'm just

going to call them dbank dbank is what

we're going to call them uh and what

they do is they talk jolts not only do

they talk jolts but they talk about

prime age labor force labor force force

participation tightening of the labor

market uh the percentage of household

employment versus establishment surveys

immigration and when I first started

reading this I'm like bro how am I going

to put all of this data together how am

I going to consolidate this into one

thought and that's exactly what they

gave us which was I was actually really

impressed by take a look at this now

this is really difficult to understand

at first so I'm going to make this as

easy as possible US Labor Market in one

chart so it's a spiderweb now to

understand it you want to think of the

labor market as being good or like

decent roughly around this sort of blue

line in the middle this blue line in the

middle that I've just sort of made red

is the preco employment Market this line

right here this red in the center this

is your immediately after Co market like

everybody's like oh my gosh we're in a

recession this is horrible this is

really bad and then the orange line is

where we are

today and so what's incredible is we've

had so much data and it's felt like so

much freaking noise I've been try I've

been trying to put together this data

and find just how am I going to make

sense of all this and this chart does it

nicely this chart basically shows that

yeah we have some gyration I'm going to

fill in the gyration over here we have

weaker hiring plans and slightly we

weaker hiring and slightly weaker jobs

availability but we have a lot more job

openings uh which uh this is uh you know

job openings are the opposite of jobs

availability that's how many people are

available to work right uh and then

unable to fill job openings and

temporary help wanted you know these

sort of offset each other over here so

you can see the red is really what's

different between preco and now and we

know that job openings via jolts are

shrinking so think of that as like the

rubber band that's been stretched really

far and now it's a saggy rubber band and

you kind of just have to like shape it

again that's roughly what it seems like

is happening right now whereas consider

when we were in a recession when we were

in Co look at how big of a difference

the purple section here is uh that I'm

drawing right now versus the red the

purple shows you how tight it was then

the red is the only thing that's

different now compared to

preo so this is very interesting it it

in my opinion I'm going to remove some

of the drawings here gives a very good

outline of uh what we're dealing with in

the labor market and this actually made

me think as an investor I go maybe I'm

being too bearish on the labor market

maybe I'm not giving the devil uh the

it's du so to speak I added the blue

mind you okay I translate it still very

loose basically only portion tightening

so far I added the blue just want to

make that clear uh but it it made me a

little bit more confident that this

economy can still actually hold up

because remember one of the reasons I'm

on the seven six and 1 half to seven

scale on the bull bear is the reason I'm

not on like 8 nine or 10 is because

partly because of AI partly because of

how long bed might risk overcorrecting

here uh and

hiring basically having a jobs

recession this makes me less concerned

about a jobs recession now here's the

problem though we know that this is a

very lagging indicator so I don't love

that now I personally think that

consumer sent like consumer sentiment

retail sales data is even more lagging

because you lose your job then you can't

spend anymore right so I think this

leads that but initial claims we would

expect to start see seeing some movement

over here we'd expect to see job

openings like for me to really get

concerned about a recession I'll kind of

draw you what I think this should look

like let's go ahead and use an orange

color and uh once we go with an orange

color we're going to go well that's sort

of the line they have now that's maybe

that's not the best color okay how about

then I'll go with a pinkish purple color

okay perfect so I would expect this dot

to be here so job openings right uh

employment claims I know will come later

so I'm going to leave claims roughly

here although I would expect them to

start spiking a bit I would expect

unable to fill job openings to

actually um I mean this is this probably

is a little bit more of a lagging

indicator uh that's that's a little bit

more of a complicated one because this

sort of implies that businesses can't

find workers I think it'll actually be

really easy to find

workers so I don't know that that one

would be so much of a negative that one

might actually end up staying somewhere

over here uh part-time for economic

reason marginally attacked unemployment

some of these are just really going to

lag quits I would really expect quits to

stay stable where they are people don't

really want to quit in that sort of

environment hiring plans I would expect

tank even more and it already has

started to and then hires would start

shrinking in so you're actually starting

to see where some of the elements uh are

are starting to weaken where you would

expect them to weaken so like my line if

I kept uh payrolls unemployment like

this my Spidey web would probably look a

little bit

more like this if I were to get

concerned so I'd really need to see this

move down very very rapidly as a leading

indicator in addition to these hiring

Serv 's remaining week and then I'll

start seeing a movement and a trend up

in initial

claims so we'll see right now what we're

having happening here at job openings

might still be part of a

normalization okay

obviously this is interesting does it

really move me off the 6 and 1 half to

7 maybe it pushes me like to like 6 8 to

7 but I'm going to probably wait before

like I'm not making any changes just

based on this yet a little too orally so

I just wanted to give that on labor now

let's talk uh Tesla and market so look

first of all Bitcoin I don't know what

its problem is but it continues to Trend

down it did bounce off the 64 level

pretty nicely yes I have a line a lot of

lines drawn I know that's that's cuz I

trade a lot I'm sorry when I'm at home

and I'm in the office and I got trading

to do I do my trading uh we did have a

good day trading mind you today uh we

were up uh in the stocks and psych group

we were up about

94 $96,000 today so these were my this

was my trading realized p&l today uh

there we go I don't know why that was

blurry there for a second 620 to 620 oh

that's a little messy and there we

go 96k so it's pretty good uh just for

transparent I traded today uh with

probably an average of about $70,000 at

a time and then I would just sort of go

in and out of positions shorts Longs you

name it uh most of the money I made

today was actually on AMD actually lost

money on Tesla today so it's worth

bringing that up remember I send all my

Buy sell alerts to everybody in the

stocks and psychology of money group uh

they're not guaranteed to make money and

uh look I even have a sound effect for

this now pass performance perance does

not guarantee promise or imply future

returns this is not personalized

Financial advice don't sue me bro coupon

code expiring

soon I'm sorry I'm G to I love the sound

effects soundboards are so cool uh ai's

gotten really good these days uh and so

have uh uh so have um

soundboards so uh okay um with that

let's now talk Tesla so bitcoin's been

falling I think Bitcoin is a little bit

of a hedge for the market but my Tesla

thesis has not been playing out the way

I thought I thought after the vote

passed that we would be getting some

form of larger movement here and we just

didn't get it uh in fact we're still in

this nasty consolidation on Tesla we

have a really hard time staying above

the 182 level and it's very frustrating

because we had a catalyst come out of

the way we had a great move in price

here which the volatility charts we

talked about predicted this movement

right here so what happened it just we

just didn't get a lot I mean we went

from 173 to what a high of like 187 in

tray big freaking deal 187 17 3 8%

nominal for the volatility Movement we

got in Tesla and unfortunately the

problem here I think is that you had a

Federal Reserve that stepped on the

Tesla feces so I don't have Tesla calls

anymore I had Tesla calls last week but

as soon as it stopped working uh I

closed the calls and I send an alert to

everybody in the stocks and pych I go I

literally send a Discord message I'm

like I don't think the momentum is there

for the Tesla trade that this isn't

working bye basically uh I like to try

to send my thesis all the time so so

that way you know what I'm doing um so

the issue with this is the hot fed

whether this is cashcari or some new

members speaking on behalf of the FED

kashari talking about it's likely to

take a year or two to get back to 2%

inflation other members talking about

it's going to take quarters of more data

to bring rates down uh the Federal

Reserve revising up the terminal rate

all of these things are heavily Weighing

on Tesla and unfortunately I think the

next Catalyst for Tesla has moved to

Tesla's delivery numbers which come out

in about 11 days beginning of July is

when we'll see them so the my enthusiasm

for Tesla hasn't changed it's just the

way I'm trading it has changed you

almost have to wait until either the

first or second when we get our Tesla

delivery numbers because uh in July

we'll get the uh April May June numbers

and

I'm somewhat convinced and enthusiastic

about although I could be wrong not only

now all of a sudden the model 3 having

uh the $7,500 tax credit but I'm also

enthused by uh the lower APR offerings

that we're seeing from Tesla because

they're implying that the sale that they

did in May worked now you have to be

careful because if you go to the Tesla

website you're going to find that not

not all of the vehicles have that offer

for example rear wheeel drive model 3s

have the

2.99% the all-wheel drive does not the

long range nor does the performance and

that's because there's a difference in

where the tax credit is eligible versus

where it's not no tax credit they're

giving you that

2.99% and I believe if you jump over to

the model wise which I am curious to see

how this financing is going to affect

their margins but I think it'll okay if

you go to uh the model wise we're back

to

6.39 these were offered at

.99 uh so kind of starting to see those

numbers move up again a little bit in

terms of the interest rate offers so

probably expensive for Tesla but point

is I think the market is trading the

Federal Reserve here and that's not a

good thing for Tesla it's certainly not

a good thing for the solar industry

right now either as we saw with solar

stocks today that said there's also this

question over did Nvidia today signal a

blow off the top now to understand this

we have to get off the average

candlesticks uh this is a very large

magnitude candle over here I know large

sticks when I see large sticks and uh a

blow off the top is not good usually you

would have a lot more momentum to the

upside but the fact that we closed for

13 5 uh then we literally hit an

intraday high of 140 only to go down to

130 is a huge shift because

14076 versus what we are at right now in

postmarket is a move of

75% that's not good and if you Google

what a blowoff the top chart looks like

you could just do this very simply I

just want you to be able to see it fact

check it yourself you get this rapid

Ascent rapid

decline now it may not look that way in

the chart that I showed you uh just

there because I was zoomed in quite a

bit but I'm going to zoom out a little

bit I'm going to go to the average

candlesticks I'm going to show it to you

again do you see what I

mean that's a very rapid

Ascent a blow off the top is a chart

pattern that shows a steep and Rapid

increase in a Securities price and

trading volume followed by a steep and

Rapid drop in price usually on

significant or high volume as well right

well we're certainly elevated on volume

we've been elevated on volume quite

frankly since

about February not exactly sure why

we've been so elevated on volume but but

look at the volume measures here volume

volume all of a sudden right here this

moment around March is when that volume

exploded and all these volume

candlesticks look teeny compared to the

amount of volume that's moving in on

Nvidia I mean this it the

volume moved by a factor of 10x now I

know they did a 10 for one split but the

split was right here and volume has

actually declined since the

split so it's almost

like whatever Happened Here LED Nvidia

volume to explod

load uh and uh uh that has potentially

led to this creation of a blowoff

top chart pattern and the fact that

we've moved basically 8% in one day is

bearish for AI now these are technicals

I people get mad at me all the time when

I talk about fundamentals I we can be

very clear about

this if Nvidia can sustain more than 10

actually call it 20% growth every year

for the next four years so we get to the

end of this year which is their January

31st and then we get 20% 20% 20% 20% if

we could do that four years in a row

nvidia's valuation is

fine however if Nvidia gets to the end

of this year we end up at $2.70 of

eps which puts us at 48 times earnings

and then after that we have the Wall

Street projected earnings which are

32.6%

9.85% 94% and -

3.05% all that averages out to 10% per

year well now you take 48 divided by 10

you're a 4.8 Peg that is a ridiculously

overvalued stock now this takes a

crystal ball of looking into the Future

Okay well what's going to happen with AI

demand I don't know is Apple and our on

device chips built by companies like arm

going to take Nvidia uh uh inference

compute

away do we really need to keep training

new gpts or safe super intelligences as

Ilia uh from open AI is now

creating or are people just starting to

waste their money and have we done the

training we need and now it's kind of

like great until there's a new

innovation maybe we don't actually need

this much Compu I don't know

that is ultimately for you individually

as an investor to determine the chart

pattern doesn't look good the Bitcoin is

situation doesn't look good what the FED

is doing to Tesla and end phase and the

interest rate sensitives does not look

good and they always say don't fight the

FED unfortunately what all of that

collectively could mean for this jobs uh

information which we could flip back

over to the jobs chart oh sorry that's

just the p&l again for the coupon expire

next week on the stocks and site group

sorry sorry um okay here we go I'm

actually really excited about that I 96k

trading on average like 70k today is a

good day I'm pretty happy about it I

think I think I might have myself a my

tai maybe not I got an event to prep for

tomorrow but

anyway there is a concern that this uh

could happen in other words my purple

version could happen right now markets

are implying 1 85 rate cuts by December

and where we are pricing in a full rate

cut for immediately after the election I

don't think the debates are really going

to change anything uh for uh quite

frankly the um trajectory of this

economy and then I don't think that you

know commentary like Barkin I'm just

reading this right here my personal view

is to let's get more conviction on

inflation before moving forward I mean

there just going to say the same stuff

and just like it feels like the most

boring job like let's just do nothing

until something breaks is what it feels

like obviously they've been asked about

this Drome Powell himself said no we we

are acutely aware that we do not want to

go break something and we don't want to

get to a situation like that but if you

end up breaking something which quite

frankly could very well happen you will

probably have rates that are in line

with my thesis from a very long time ago

and by very long time ago I mean about 2

years ago when I said that I think you

should mark your calendar for the early

2030s I don't remember exactly what I

said either 33 or

32

uh and by then I think we will have a

30-year mortgage that is under 2%

probably like

1.75% a lot of people like Kevin no way

in hell you're smoking the dopes and I'm

like

no I'm not and I think I'm going to be

right hence why I want to get my hands

as many assets as possible namely more

stocks in an ETF I can tax trade in more

real estate more companies I can be

involved in startups house hack my you

know brokerage company suit hack uh

obviously you know the channel here I

know I haven't posted as regularly I got

to I get back into that the event has

taken a lot out of me just prepping for

it and content and that um but anyway

hey should be a fun weekend we'll have

uh Kathy Wood Ben Mala uh it's going to

be a great group uh you can learn more

about that at meetkevin.com I'm pretty

sure we're pretty much out of tickets

there might be a few left I'm not sure

there's a counter on there uh very

limited tickets Avail yeah whatever you

take a peek at that so um there you have

it thank you so very much for watching

go to meetkevin.com to learn more uh and

uh make sure to subscribe subscribe to

meet Kevin go to

meetkevin.com and if you have questions

email staff at

meetkevin.com

[Laughter]

[Applause]

I love this stuff where's Stars and

Stripes no this is how you got to do it

you got to have stars and stripes in

there we're going to have so much fun in

the market open live streams if you're

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YouTube meet Kevin Market open live

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Market's open at 5:25 a.m. but you got

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this see you in the next one not

advertise these things that you told us

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this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it Go

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always wait to get

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