alright well f**k

Happy Memorial Day. Please don't leave

another comment that I'm wearing orange

makeup. I'm just turning orange. How can

I help myself when all of the tariffs

that are supposed to destroy the economy

and push us into a recession keep

getting walked back almost as if all of

the tariffs were just designed to be a

big negotiation after all, like we

thought during the campaign, but then

didn't believe it. Well, I guess we'll

see what happens. But today, I'm going

to provide you an update on exactly

what's going on with the tariffs along

with what Donald Trump is saying and a

full breakdown of what Neil Kashkari

just said at the Federal Reserve. I'll

provide some other updates as well. I'm

going to keep this one concise because

it's a holiday and I want you to go do

whatever it is you're doing. Thank you

for watching. Uh, by the way, if for

whatever reason you decide, you know

what, Kevin, if I could only take

advantage of a Memorial Day to book a

coaching call with Kevin, I would do it.

I'm actually launching that. Uh, if you

go to the link down below, you're going

to see you can book a 40-minute coaching

call with Kevin. It'll be a Zoom audio

call, so audio, not video, but we'll

record it with OpusAI, so you could get

your recording and summation. You can

always reference it again. Just make

sure you apply the coupon code Memorial

Day. Okay, it's 31% off. I'm only doing

it today. I want to see uh how I I'm a

little bored right now. Okay, this this

the next 30 days are going to be a

little bored boring for me. So, I'm

going to book some coaching calls. Only

offering this uh today on Memorial Day.

And if we like it, maybe we'll bring it

back. Uh and we don't have uh infinite

slots for this either. So, go check that

out. Uh it's linked down below. And

you'll go to this screen. Then you press

enroll. Now, just make sure apply that.

Just type in Memorial Day. Okay, cool.

All right. So, Donald Trump this uh

weekend suggested that he would delay

the imposition of the European Union

tariffs on the uh well European Union to

July 9th, which is also the same day

that liberation day 90day extension

expires. Now, this is really good

because last week the European Union

actually sent a proposal to the United

States which the United States outright

rejected. This comes at the same time as

the European Union is threatening

tariffs on around $25 billion of goods,

threatening tariffs on another $90

billion worth of goods. So, in other

words, the European Union is threatening

a lot of retaliatory tariffs while at

the same time, Donald Trump has publicly

expressed that he's frustrated with how

the Europeans are negotiating. This is

also coming at the same time as we have

these reduced tariffs on China of 30%.

Which we hope are going to get

negotiated even lower. But ultimately we

don't know are we going to sit at a 10%

base level or are tariffs going to end

up moving up

substantially. For right now it looks

like we have basically bought ourselves

all of June for those trailing stops to

keep going to the freaking moon. And I'm

just going to be clear here. There's

very little evidence of true damage

occurring to the economy at the moment.

Now, there are pockets of damage,

delinquencies amongst uh lower income

earners, but we've seen that ever since

excess savings have evaporated. Broadly,

the economy, whether it's propped up by

artificial intelligence or corporate

buybacks and spending, whatever it is,

the rich people spending money, whatever

it is, the economy just keeps booming.

Now, we'll see obviously where we end up

by July 9th. And this is why we've got

to talk about what Neil Tashkari just

said. It is worth noting that futures

were just so you know futures are open

on Sunday even if the next day is uh a

holiday. So futures still trade futures

were up 1% on the news of this sort of

tariff reprieve until July 9th with the

European Union on Sunday. So like the

NASDAQ was up 1% for example. Uh and uh

this again comes after last week Donald

Trump said we're going to raise tariffs

to 50%. and the EU proposal for

negotiations was flatout rejected. Now

everybody's taking a different tone. But

what's interesting is you should pay

attention to what the European Union is

doing. They're saying, "Oh yeah, July

9th, this is perfect. This will give us

time to work something out. In the

meantime, they're trying to cozy up not

only to China, but to other countries to

strengthen the euro because in the

future, they actually think the euro

could replace the dollar." And we knew

the Afro wasn't going to make it when

that proposal came. But there was

actually a time where African countries

were thinking about forming the African

Union and then coming up with the

Afrocurrency. So there's a lot of talk

about replacement currencies for the US

dollar. Obviously, we've heard this with

bricks before. And part of me wonders if

during this sort of 90-day pause time,

our enemies are or sort of our former

allies and our enemies are um

coordinating against us. I really hope

not. I really hope like I said at the

beginning of the video that these are

just negotiations. We get rid of

tariffs. And that's exactly what Neil

Qashqari says as well. Neil Qashqari

says, "Look, we are talk and this is

interesting. It's the forward-looking

data that you should really pay

attention to." And technically, it's not

really data. It's more like anecdotal.

But anyway, he had this like 20 minute

interview. Okay, maybe it was 10

minutes. It just felt really long and

boring. He's like, "Uncertainty may

weigh on the econ." All right, we've

heard all this crap before. Like, I

don't want to reiterate all this boring

crap to you. I I want to respect your

time. So the the thing that I thought

was really interesting is he says we are

hearing from our business contacts uh

that uh our businesses are making

contingency plans should uncertainty

continue uh and that would

include significant layoffs as a

potential. And so he says, "Look, if

tariffs are just going to be, you know,

uh 10% and uh all of the higher numbers

are really just a negotiated level,

maybe things will be fine and the

stagflationary impact on our economy

will be small. But if we end up

negotiating or settling with tariffs

substantially higher, then we could have

real problems and those layoffs may hit

at the same time inflation stays

sticky." Now, it's worth noting that

Waller last week said that the Fed sort

of has a base case that tariffs will end

up settling somewhere around an average

of 18%. Now, they seem to think that

could actually sustain a rate cut by the

end of the year. I kind of think across

the board 18% tariffs is going to weigh

on our economy quite a bit, which I

like. Now I try to, you know, I'm trying

to align like is he thinking, you know,

18% is just going to keep inflation like

decently low but a little higher than

where it would have been, but then they

need to cut because the economy is going

to slow because of that 18%. That kind

of aligns a little bit with what

Qashqari is saying. Whereas, you know,

Qashqari is like it all depends on where

the tariffs settle. Fine. But so far,

even Qashqari says, "So far the labor

market's holding up, so we're just going

to wait and see. September might even be

too soon to cut, which is really

interesting." So obviously, we'll see.

So far, we just get a big kick kick of

the can down the road by Donnie T, which

bodess really well for trailing stops,

and we'll be talking about that like we

were last week. We're like, look, if you

set trailing stops on these EU tariff

announcements, you won't get hit until

you're out like, you know, 4 to 10% on

certain stocks. nothing actually went

down that level as far as I you know of

the stocks that I was watching because

people immediately bought the dip before

there was a dip and now futures being up

1% implies we're just going to kind of

keep going. This is what we've been

saying for the last 30 days like hey

even if you're bearish on the economy in

the medium term like I kind of am I

think you know over the next year you

know we we could fall into a recession

unless things you know really start

cooking again which I hope they do. I'd

rather not fall into a recession. Uh but

you know in the very very short term

like I said 30 days ago even over the

next 30 days until liberation day you

know liberation day

2.0 I'm not expecting any bad data. Now

that said uh Donald Trump uh I also want

to know oh okay and Qashqari Qashqari

also says crypto is speculation whatever

Donald Trump threatened to divert

Harvard money to trade schools. I

actually thought that was this was

really interesting and I've talked about

Harvard before. I'm not the biggest fan

of some of the research money, you know,

getting deleted from our, you know,

research institutions that are

researching quantum mechanics or uh

cancers or whatever, especially since

some of these studies have been going on

for decades. Those make me a little

nervous when we start cutting from

science. But I get the whole, you know,

Harvard versus divert the money

elsewhere argument. And I want to say,

remember in 2021 when I ran for governor

in California, what did I pitch? I

called it future schools. and future

schools would integrate trade schools

into high school. So that way when you

graduate at 18, you could go work as a

journeyman electrician or plumber or

carpenter or whatever framer, right?

That's what we need. And now with AI, we

need even more of that. I've been

talking about that for, you know, four

years. So hearing Donald Trump suggest

that we should, you know, spend money on

trade school, absolutely love it. In

fact, I think he should include it in

the big beautiful bill, but that's not

tentatively in the big beautiful bill.

But whatever. Also, quick correction and

retraction. Apparently, the IRS deems

cash tips in the Big Beautiful Bill as

including credit card transactions,

which is really weird to me because when

I worked at Red Robin, cash tips were

the tips that you got in cash and then

you would have to go to the terminal and

report them. Well, most people if they

got a $10 tip, they'd put like $1 as a

tip in because they just didn't want to

pay taxes on the $9 and they'd pocket

that, which did make it harder for them

to qualify for a home. technically is

against the law. You know, they should

have been reporting that, but that was

just a very common standard. People

wouldn't report their cash tips. Credit

card tips are automatically reported to

the IRS and they're part of your

paycheck or whatever. Well, apparently

the IRS deems cash tips credit card and

cash tips, which is really good for

servers because it would actually reduce

your overall taxation on even credit

card tips, which is cool. And I think uh

it's somewhere around 6040 in terms of

uh cash 60% and 40% credit card tips.

Although I think that's going to flip

over to more CC's o over time here.

Anyway, uh then we've got merits of

Deutsland giving the green light for

Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia.

This is really the European Union trying

to exert their dominance uh and and

push, you know, the European Union uh

into further support for Ukraine against

Russia. I thought it was really

interesting. But Poland actually has the

largest army in Europe right now outside

of Russia, which uh I would not have

guessed that. I would have guessed it

was like France or Germany or something

like that. So, I thought that was very

interesting. Also, with that, uh thank

you for those of you who are emailing me

asking about the deadline for investing

in House Hack. Uh I had an email this

morning, for example. Somebody's like,

"Hey, I'm on a cruise. Like, am I going

to be okay?" Yes, don't worry. No, no

expiration plan for investing in house

hack between now and at least the next

Fed meeting and I'll give you at least

two week notice. We're not going to keep

it open forever because uh we think over

time broader interest rates will fall uh

and then we're going to get rid of this

5% offer. But if you want to lock that

in, the only benefit to investing

earlier until the round is closing for

House Hack is you start collecting that

5% sooner, which some people want to do

because you know stocks are pretty high.

So, I know some people are sort of

diversifying a little bit. Other people

are waiting for those trailing stops to

hit and I'm totally respecting of that

as well because again that's what we've

been advocating as sort of, you know,

broader financial suggestion, not

personalized financial advice. Anyway,

uh risk with every investment. Make sure

to read the paperwork. Thank you so very

much for watching. Uh go check out that

uh coaching call in the first link in

the description down below. And folks,

we'll see you in the next video. Thanks

so much. Goodbye and have a wonderful

Memorial Day. Right.