a “major boom” is coming… this changes everything

good morning everyone there are a few

important things to talk about for the

economy this week we're going to talk

about what Nick T just said about the

Bitcoin strategic Reserve uh we're going

to talk about Volkswagen lockouts a

little bit we'll also talk about Bank of

America's targets for what is going to

outperform in 2025 in their opinion they

are calling for a boom but in what might

surprise you uh we'll also talk about

some Black Friday sale numbers in terms

of uh how have sales been uh retail

sales at companies how has foot traffic

been how has how have online sales been

uh spoiler alert online sales for at

least the trumponomics course have been

freaking amazing uh still need to change

the price because we're supposed to have

a price bump before Cyber Monday and

then a big price bump after that that's

at meetkevin.com you already know about

the trumponomics course uh everything on

real estate stocks investing trusts tax

savings under Trump now and then with

new laws that are coming in 25 meet

kevin.com uh but anyway traveling right

now I actually got my house hack belt on

uh no I don't have my house hack belt

dang there's this belt company this belt

company's really cool they put a little

American flag or the house hack logo on

it which is really cool so I kind of

love that belt when I've got jeans on

but anyway let's get into the topic so

let's start with Nick T so Nick T posted

a comment yesterday on X he says he

quote tweeted Trump's talk about bricks

which we talked about yesterday bricks

potentially facing a 100% tariff uh

should they try to replace the dollar

which I think is a very strong

pre-negotiation excellent move by Donald

Trump frankly uh to maintain uh the

sanctity of the dollar which is very

important for the deficit financing that

we do I'm not agreeing with it I'm just

saying it's very important and given

that I'm from America I think it's great

foreigners will disagree with that and

they should but Nick T talks about this

idea of creating a federal or questions

this idea of creating a federal Bitcoin

Reserve if Donald Trump wants to

maintain the US dollar uh and I think

what Nick T here misses is that Donald

Trump has addressed this Donald Trump

hasn't said that the United States would

go buy Bitcoin rather what he said is

that any Bitcoin or digital assets any

digital assets could be Ada you know

ethereum could be Dogecoin uh any

digital assets that are seized uh would

not be sold and thereby you would

essentially be creating a us I can't do

this sitting down you would be creating

a strategic cryptocurrency Reserve now

uh some people have suggested that the

United States should just straight up

buy Bitcoin because of course we refer

to it as digital gold some people see it

as a way to be competitive with China uh

and if you use stable coins you might be

able to sort of equalize access to

currency especially as sort of uh that's

way too short that's right I'm wearing a

jacket anyway uh especially as

skepticism around Fiat grows dude I've

never tied a tie sitting down before

it's a really bad idea but whatever oh

it's terrible I'm going to redo it

anyway uh so you know obviously there's

a balance here because you know

transactions that occur on blockchain

are essentially resilient to sanctions

but they're not resistant to monitoring

and one of the big benefits of the

banking sector is that the CIA is all

over those and you know transactions and

and you could really

utilize uh the banking system to track

terrorism so you've got this sort of

balance here and I think Nick T is just

really missing the point that the point

is Trump wants to just maintain currency

that is seized not buy it and at the

same time have a strong dollar now again

there are Arguments for having you know

crypto or Bitcoin that is bought by the

US Treasury like a gold storage that we

have uh except in a digital format but I

don't see that happening anytime soon

although that is a Bitcoin maximalist

argument in fact most Bitcoin Maxi say

forget about Bitcoin for transactions

maybe not forget about it but they're

like it's digital gold man limited

Supply bro all right uh so that's that

on Nick T and Bitcoin we got JP Morgan

announcing that they're opting out of

transition Finance which is basically

what he saying uh they're not going to

take part in the sort of

decarbonization and it's basically just

the next step removed from uh you know

the ESG mandates that have been out

there so they're not going to take part

of that uh as far as black Friday D data

Bed Bath and Beyond Bath & Body Works

and Ulta they each receive about a third

of their annual revenue in this short

holiday season this like 5we period into

the end of the year which is crazy

onethird of your sales and you know 10%

of the Year crazy but anyway Ulta and

Best Buy have had flat to maybe a little

bit better than expected foot traffic

each of them has been promoting like

crazy this is per Bloomberg foot traffic

at Dicks was solid but not extraordinary

they're hoping they can maintain their

margin and many higher income consumers

or custom customers for Brands like

William Sonoma may have just gone

shopping online in the weeks before and

during Black Friday uh we've seen a lot

of sales move up you know Amazon Prime

day was in October for example uh demand

at Best Buy was really driven by small

appliances uh large TVs and laptops

every time I go to Best Buy by the way

people just want air fryers and vacuum

cleaners I don't really understand how

often you could possibly need an air

fryer or vacuum cleaner but apparently

these sell a lot I have not bought a

cleaner in like 17 years um that's well

un fairness that's because I don't

vacuum anyway okay uh retail sales um X

Auto grew 3.4% on Black Friday per

MasterCard uh that's not inflation

adjusted so in like with inflation

considered you know roughly 3% maybe

maybe give it two and a half% there you

barely grew overall sales which isn't

great because most St sales still happen

in stores and in stor sales only grew 7%

not inl adjust him and e-commerce was up

14.6% uh which is great but not enough

to offset that weak sort of inore sales

number now we're still breaking records

right because normally we're still

moving up we had $10.8 billion in Black

Friday sales per Adobe uh Sensormatic

another analytics firm they thought that

in store sales were actually potentially

down as much as 8.2% uh you're getting a

lot of discounting Home Depot best by

Target Walmart but they're still seeing

good sell through so the discounts are

working at this point you still have a

strong consumer at this point uh you had

about 700 million go to a firm in Clara

BN bnpl sales for example uh that works

out to about 6.4% still relatively low

doesn't in my opinion indicate any signs

of real distress like these numbers

overall pretty decent uh now we do have

some big catalysts this week and then I

want to get into uh the Bank of America

uh targets here but big Catalyst this

week obviously is going to be Friday's

unemployment report Wednesday we get ADP

but Friday's going to matter more we're

expecting 200,000 jobs really this

return to growth unemployment rate

should hold steady of 4.1 steadily

declining opening positions though and

limited payroll growth does sort of make

people scratch their heads that like

could layoff start like you know what's

going on at GM or some of the other

Autos but that industry is just really

suffering Autos are really having a hard

time uh Tesla is sending out like we

have inventory available for immediate

deliveries deals my cyber truck took

like 29 days to deliver I saw somebody

else on X got their cyber truck within

like 7 days I don't know maybe they're

close closer to Austin Texas I I have no

idea who knows but anyway it's it's you

know people are trying to clear out

their inventory towards the end of the

year so a lot there's a lot of hope that

November is going to be better than

October uh but it's sort of asteris

remember October we had negative 29

27,000 payrolls uh the overall report

was positive 14,000 which is dismal only

because of government jobs which we had

huge government jobs in September really

leading into the election that's 785,000

non-teacher jobs which is crazy and we

had revisions down in September and

October so this this jobs report should

give us some clarity uh in terms of what

the trend is the expectation is 200

which I actually think is a little bit

on the high side but watch it ends up

being some blowout and they come out

with like some crazy number like 300 or

400,000 again and then people you know

yields are just going to Skyrocket I I

just I don't know anymore on a month-of

month basis how to trust the data it's

just sort of like give me like the

long-term average then let's wait for

the revisions and then we'll know Powell

and Chris Waller expected to speak

Monday but I haven't seen exactly from

where uh Bloomberg is talking about how

there's extreme bullishness right now

that 57% of investors think the market

will increase next year which is

actually the highest level since 1987

and is a bit of a contrarian indicator

and Bank of America suggests that retail

is just basically going out and taking

more risk more margin debt and otherwise

in fact I'm going to look at finra

margin statistics uh you could just type

literally those words into Google and

you'll get finra sort of overall count

uh we're at 815 Bill uh we've been

higher before we've been in the 900s to

a Trill before but we've definitely been

trending up almost all year some margin

reduction there in July and August as we

had to sell off that makes sense uh

walkouts for Volkswagen start on Monday

in Germany they failed to reach an

agreement to slash costs Bloomberg also

thinks that overall the entire Market

had such good earnings in 24 that comps

for 25 are going to be hard except for

restaurants restaurants had such a

terrible 24 they might do better in 25

unless there's a recession of course but

that works for everything Hezbollah is

still getting struck by Israel but

that's because Israel is complaining

that Hezbollah violated their ceasefire

agreement because are sneaking weapons

around between Lebanon and Syria

apparently who knows what's going on but

that's not great for the ceasefire but

we'll see if that's just like a limited

one time like is that it are you going

to hit us one time or you going to hit

us again Bank of America's heart net

okay this is the interesting one ready

this is the big boom he talks

about all right the big boom he talks

about the boom and meet Kevin's

trumponomics course price oh I had to

slide that one in okay no he's actually

talking about uh he sees four themes in

2024 that he thinks are going to reverse

we had this huge populism move uh in

2020 sort of anti-pop move rather a move

to the right more conservativism in 2024

throughout the entire world and uh he

didn't say this but I think what he's

alluding to is this warning that

fractionalisation is basically a way of

saying hey like Republicans better get

done what they can get done in 2025

because in 2026 you go into an election

year and the GOP basically has one year

to get anything done they've only got

220 seats is right now that's what we're

expecting on a 218 majority that's tight

you cannot lose a lot of seats so if you

get

fractionalisation on spending you know

fiscal conservativism whatever so we'll

see what happens here and how uh those

efforts can be combined with the efforts

of Doge to potentially actually get

things done uh we'll see another one is

uh 2024 he says was anything but bonds

and now he's like hey if bond yields go

close to 5% back up the truck I don't

actually think we're going to go back to

5% but if we have a really crazy high

jobs report Friday maybe we will uh I

think the bottom is in and we're

trending up on bonds but I guess we'll

see the data will tell us uh I'm long

the idea that bonds are going to

outperform almost everything in 2025 but

this is old news at this point uh AI you

get the recession hedge and you get the

lower interest rate hedge like it's it's

it's both best of both I just don't see

inflation reigniting my opinion I'm

putting my money where my mouth is uh

and I've been of the mindset of this for

many years uh but anyway um then he

talks about how in 2024 the AI Monopoly

dominated mostly mag 7 he thinks that's

going to dissipate maybe you have more

flat performance in the max 7 you want

to look elsewhere uh look at symbotic

okay I just got some exposure to

symbotic I did a whole video on it you

could just type in meet Kevin symbotic s

ym b o t i see s iotic anyway um not

symbiotics atic uh and then uh in 2024

he says uh everything was everything but

China but now he thinks go for China I

think all well sorry he thinks all four

of these are going to reverse and the

way you're going to play it is this

you're going to go along the US boom and

you're going to short the global bust in

q1 so Global recession q1 prices go

lower in q1 but higher uh so lower

internationally internationally higher

in the US and q1 then this is crystal

ball okay he says after the bust in

q1 by International in the second

quarter and and now he's thinking maybe

that's when you divest from the mag s

then you buy treasuries if they you get

to 5% and he actually says buying China

stocks is a potential hedge I struggle

with this because I think the consumer

cooked over there you're going to have

like japanification or whatever consumer

just not going to trust China anymore uh

and then he also says crypto could be a

hedge I'm not sure about that because

crypto is gener deemed to be a risk

asset but maybe people can leave me a

comment to give me some insight on this

because I just don't see it as a edge

but maybe it is you know maybe it's a

it's it's a hedge against the dollar

right like Michael uh sailor over at

micro strategy says so there you have it

go to mea.com for more trumponomics uh I

got to go to work so I appreciate you we

got some really big due diligence going

on for roboh hack. I expect a video on

that tomorrow if you signed your doc you

signed and you're an accredit investor

uh also go to meetkevin.com for the

tromics course and uh we are coming up

on that deadline for houske so go to

house.com to learn more about investing

in houske thanks so much for being here

we'll see you in the next one goodbye

and good luck