wooooooooooow

Holy smokes. We are experiencing the

wildest squeeze in the stock market and

today's inflation report clearly

contributed if not even makes the most

bullish scenario

for now. Now, there are some serious

risks which I'm going to talk about

those risks at the end of the video. But

here's something crazy. You might

remember going all the way back to the

end of 2022

when Kevin said, "I don't know, folks. I

think we're going to have this crazy

Nike swoosh recovery and it's going to

end in some insane euphoria." If you

remember, my thesis for that was people

aren't going to believe that inflation

is going to come down. And the basis

that we used back then 3 years ago was

that housing inflation would flatline.

And folks, it has finally happened now.

It took way longer than anybody

expected. And it is a miracle, an

absolute miracle that the labor market

has not collapsed yet. But that's where

we stand today. And it's really

remarkable because today's CPI report

told us exactly this. That owner's

equivalent rent moved only 0.1%. This is

the lowest that we've seen since January

of 2021. And folks, look at the Nike

swoosh. It doesn't matter. Liberation,

the Chinese uh or the Japanese carry

trade, none of that stuff matters. The

Nike swoosh is holding. We are just on

the perfect path of the Nike swoosh of

print print money. In fact, if you look

at the Nike swoosh, we haven't even had

the euphoric part yet, which is crazy

because everything is at all-time highs.

Now, does that mean we could be purely

and squarely bullish?

That depends on the time frame. We're

going to talk about that as we review

some of the data here. So, first CPI

this morning 0.1 lower than expected,

which is exactly what I predicted in, of

course, the alpha report. Now, again, I

I feel like people won't believe this.

Like, the last two days I did the alpha

report, I put it together, I sent it to

course members, even though I'm not I

wasn't publicly live streaming. I didn't

even get a video out yesterday cuz I was

flying back home. It's so great to be

home. And I don't think people believe

it. But yesterday, I'm like, "Hey, hey,

the number to play today, like we go

bullish yesterday." Did I say this? The

the number to play today is the entire

market goes bullish if AMD holds three

or 232. Look how many times we bounced.

Now, it wasn't perfect, you know, maybe

within 20 cents there. But look at that.

That's like four or five bounces on 232.

And that was such a bullish confirmation

in addition to, oh, Trump's going to

release the CPI. Of course, it's going

to be lower than expected. Duh. They

already have the damn data. So he knew

exactly what he was doing. That's why we

said in the alpha report like, "Hey,

this is bullish, bullish, bullish." And

look at AMD's launch off of this. So

absolutely wild. But wait a minute, why

then are we not seeing the 10-year

Treasury come down more aggressively?

Ah, yes. Well, that's because we don't

have enough of a CPI collapse to

actually get us really, really rapid

cuts. So, we're kind of in this really

kind of, dare I say, fantastic spot

where the data and GDP are great, but

there are lingering risks. Again, we'll

talk about those in just a moment. But

look at the Atlanta Fed real GDP now

just upgraded to 3.9%.

Growth seems to be booming on all

cylinders. Then this morning we got the

US SNP

global PMI read and they had a note

about both manufacturing and services

and the note said the following. We had

an acceleration of activity in October,

the fastest or I should say the second

fastest in 2025 with improvements in

both manufacturing and services, modest

employment growth and GDP consistent

with 2.5%. Now that's not as high as

what we had with uh what we got uh in

the Atlanta Fed real GDP numbers, but

both of those are pointing really

bullish. So, the Nike swoosh is pointing

bullish, which has been frankly bullish

since 2022. There are lingering

concerns, which are fair, and we're

going to talk about those. Uh, and we've

now got new S&P data, which is a private

survey, which is indicating bullish for

October. We expected CPI to come in low.

This isn't really a surprise. Why else

would Donald Trump release that and

then, oh, uh, yeah, but, uh, but next

month we're not going to release the CPI

report because we haven't been

collecting the data. He's already

announced that like the White House has

already told us we're not doing it next

month. And meanwhile, no jobs reports

because why not? And we're just going to

rug the Fed on jobs reports because why?

Some people in the comments a couple

days ago were asking, Kevin, why what

benefit would Trump have of hiding the

jobs reports? If he hides the jobs

report and it's low, wouldn't that help

rates come down? That's not all you

want. What you really want is you want

just enough data to get the Fed to give

Trump his 25s, 25s, 25s. You can do that

with the CPI, but if you're running the

data, what you don't want is to panic

the Fed with big negative job prints

because it's not just going to panic the

Fed, it'll panic the job or the stock

market and then you have a crash and

then that unwinds Donald Trump's tariff

trade or his tariff plans because he

loses a lot of leverage and credibility.

Now, that's we're not saying that's

what's going to happen, but it's worth

noting that could be one of the reasons

if you happen to be a magician who

wanted to control this, you want to give

the Fed enough to give them 25 bip cuts

because it keeps the markets going up,

but you don't want to give them so much

that the stock market starts going, "Oh

crap, we're dropping into a recession."

Now, we don't know that's what the jobs

numbers are going to say. But it is

really interesting because it does at

least for uh stock number eight, nine

and 10 that we add to the next 10year

best stocks to buy. Those are for the

next 10 years, my opinion of the next 10

best stocks to buy, which of course we

talk about in the Meet Kevin report.

We've already released the first seven.

We've got three more to go. Remember, if

you're not part of this yet, use the

link down below. Just go to meet

Kevin.com. You join once, you get all of

the courses. Uh you get all the

lectures, the new lectures, archives of

all the course member live streams. You

can go back and look at the alpha

reports and you can not only get the new

ones but also the archival ones if you

want to see. No, when we go live in the

course member liveream together, we

build them out together and so you could

see ah okay yeah Kevin like this like I

had course members yesterday they're

like all right like I didn't even

mention it. I've just mentioned it so

many times. I'm like, guys, you know,

414 line on Tesla. Like, they don't even

need to mention it. They know because

they're learning by using the alpha

report. Look at that. Yesterday, what

did you get after the open 414 bounce

within 10 cents of 414? Actually, within

60 cents of my line, but dude, look at

that. It was straight up after that.

That was really impressive on on a

bounce there. Today, we were actually

bullish. Coreweave uh and MP Material

for a bounce because they've been

selling off so much. core's up 7% today.

It's kind of remarkable. Uh now the risk

of course for any interest rate trades

was that the 10-year Treasury would go

up. Okay. Well, why did the 10-year

Treasury go up? Because we got a good

inflation report, right? Not enough

because that super core level is

actually running at the hottest level

that it's been running in about a year.

It's running at 2024 levels. So super

core still decently excessive or

aggressive and this is probably the

hardest one for the Federal Reserve to

kind of put a lid on. So yeah, we're

seeing tariff components pop up like

household furnishings up the most since

the middle of 2023. Audiovisisual

equipment up the most since 2021. Super

core services skipping 25 paces for

going to the highest pace in 2024. Not

great. Uh we got our cost of living

adjustment for social security at 2.8%.

So all of these numbers obviously well

above 2%. And it's nice that owner's

equivalent rents are anchoring Donald

Trump's tariff inflation down. But

Trump's tariff inflation is showing up.

We know that owner's equivalent rents

because rents are flattening. That

doesn't mean they're falling. They're

still ridiculously high, right? Uh but

because they're flatlining in a lot of

areas, it's it's enough to get the Fed

to give us 25s. Now, the Fed pricing

right now is actually ind indicative of

more than two cuts this year, but not by

much, which is really interesting. If

you look at the current futures pricing,

let me see if I can pull it up here.

Futures pricing right now has a 96.7%

chance of a rate cut uh next Wednesday,

which is pretty much guaranteed. Uh, and

then we actually are pricing in uh a uh

slightly more than two cut uh

opportunity for December 10th. Now, it's

it'll end up being 25 and 25 and a

nothing program. Maybe we'll get our

jobs data at some point this year. I

expect it'll either be right before

Thanksgiving or right afterwards. It'll

be this year we'll get it. Uh but that's

probably the leftover pisser for any of

the bears. It's jobs in China. Now, you

already know that. Now, we're supposed

to have the Trump meeting with Xiinping

next Thursday. We'll see how that goes.

Either way, I would bet on a taco. And

so far, the data that we're seeing on

state-based unemployment claims that are

sort of coming out weekly since we're

not getting the federal data weekly,

they're not indicating some sort of

major shock to employment. Yeah, we just

had announcements of layoffs and white

collar jobs. Amazon says the robots are

going to take over. Elon says the robots

are going to take over and I'm going to

be a trillionaire. Uh, and yeah, you've

got, you know, some layoffs at Target

and otherwise, but none of those are

enough to really offset what is actually

still some hiring happening here,

happening before the holiday season. So,

so far so good. Now, that actually

adjusts, in my opinion, uh, with this

data that we're getting here, the bare

bull scale. My biggest fear has

obviously been the rise of 27 weeks of

unemployment, but if we soft land here,

then that will just prove to be wrong.

It'll have proven to be too

conservative, and it would have made

more sense to be more aggressive going

into, well, frankly, the continuation of

the Nike swoosh recovery, especially

since we're not even at euphoric levels

of the Nike swoosh yet, which is crazy

to think that there could be a whole

another stage to this. Wild. Yes. So,

where do we stand with all of this?

Well, look, I'm really excited because

you know me personally, I have built

what I think is an amazing baby uh of a

real estate startup that has no debt. I

just announced that I personally am also

debtree. Got some more videos coming out

on that. Uh but we also just launched

the total rebrand of the House Hack

website. I still wear it because you

know the corporate name is still House

Hack. It's the same thing, House Hack

Reinvest. We just think this is such a

cool name because it's like real estate

invest or reinvest your money into

diversified American real estate. But

what I wanted to show you about this is

on reinvest.co.

Now, I didn't pay the million dollars

for the M. Uh but on reinvest.co,

it's amazing this brand is even

available. And so we snagged it. We're

like, "Oh, this is going to be an

awesome app name." We uh we listed our

app. Uh, and so you could see sort of

some of the graphics for what our

projections, I shouldn't say

projections, but what our hopes are, uh,

for our time frames for the app,

revenues for the app, where our pricing

might end up being, uh, how we're going

to give notifications. It's all about

wedge deals and helping people build

their net worth with uh, AI and our

custom MLS. Some of y'all had, by the

way, really, really smart uh, questions

like, "Hey, Kevin, you know, you said

you're running your own blackwells with

Houseack/reinvest.

you know why like is that cost effective

the answer is yes for our training so

when it comes to uh the the ML the very

niche ML training that we're doing we

can actually utilize our own blackwell

chips in a very cost-effective manner

probably about five to 10 times as

costefficient uh because of not being in

a rush to utilize the uh this ML

training so we don't need as many black

wells And the black wells we're using

are efficient enough. They're actually

more efficient than some of like the

4090 chips which obviously are, you

know, fractionally as as powerful. Uh

but the black wells are ironically more

efficient than some of those chips which

is like mind-blowing on an energy basis.

So long and short of it, we do some of

our ML training locally. Uh but when it

comes to inference, when we actually,

you know, run this app, it's it's all

going to be uh uh you know, cloud-based

because it needs to be fast. We can't

have latency from, you know, sort of

in-house Blackwells and waiting for for

them, you know, we're not going to do

that. But it's really exciting because

to me, I'm like, dude, if we're going to

Nike swoosh and we're going to go

euphoric rally here and everything's

going to kind of keep booming, this fine

with us, man. This will be like the most

fantastic environment for growing uh our

our AI product. And we're like, dang,

you know, if we could soft land here,

maybe we can move up our IPO schedule.

You know, I I just sent a message to

course members yesterday. I'm like, hey,

you know, should we do something here uh

with um with with revenues at House Hack

where, you know, not only can we offset

a lot of our operating expenses beyond

what we're already doing, but we might

be able to utilize some of that to

reinvest more into real estate, our AI,

and accelerate IPO time frames. uh and

the vast majority of people are are like

super excited about that. So, we've got

a lot of really exciting things cooking.

Now, obviously, uh this probably means

that uh you know, this this idea that

bond yields are going to fall or TLT is

going to run before Halloween is not

going to happen. So, we're going to have

a cool Halloween setup. Uh but that's

okay. You know, it's okay to be wrong.

Uh not can't always be right. Uh, knock

on wood, the alpha report has been

smoking lately. So, people have really

been enjoying that and sending us

messages about how quickly they're

making money to pay for their

investment, even though the investment

is a tax writeoff anyway with enjoying

the alpha report. But broadly, I do

believe Donald Trump is going to taco uh

with with China. And the biggest risk is

that employment data, but we're not

going to see that employment data for

quite a while. Now, if you want, what

you could do is you could actually um go

to meet Kevin.com/data.

I'm going to update the Bearbull scale

here. So, go to meet kekevin.comdata

uh and you'll see uh some links to the

latest house hack videos. You'll see uh

the Trump taco scale. You'll see the

bull bear or bear bull scale. Uh and uh

what you'll also see is I want you to

sign up here potentially to the uh the

daily wealth here if you want. So, drop

your email in here for the daily wealth

and I'd love uh you to be part of what

we're doing with the daily wealth. You

can get it through the Meet Kevin app or

you could get it via email. If you drop

your email here, you'll get it through

email. And I think it's absolutely fire.

And so if you're not part of that yet,

consider joining this. But anyway, go to

meet.com/data

uh and get my latest update on the um

Bearbull scale. All right, folks. We'll

see you in the next one. Good luck out

there. A pretty wild a wild position

that we're in. And uh it just sort of

makes us scratch our heads like, man,

what's Donnie T going to do to derail

this? Cuz right now this is good. Again

though, what's jump going? What's going

to happen with China? It's the leftover

risk.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Papra there, financial analyst and

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

get your take.