tesla the morning after...

hey everyone me kevin here well it is

the morning after and it is time to

realize the damage that elon musk has

caused and it's time to talk some

updates regarding tesla because there

have been quite a few so first things

first we already know that this weekend

elon musk ran a twitter poll the day

after his brother sold 108 million

dollars worth of tesla stock and gave

away 25 000 shares of tesla stock the

day after elon musk runs a twitter poll

asking whether or not he should

sell

10 percent of his tesla stock in an

effort to pay

taxes now nobody actually believes that

elon musk really wants to pay taxes

instead in all likelihood elon musk just

realizes that he's going to have to sell

tesla stock at some point over the next

few weeks to couple months anyway or

he'd have to take out a loan for

billions of dollars because he's got

some big tesla options expiring very

soon

these tesla options once they vest are

expected to leave elon musk with a tax

bill of somewhere between 10 to 15

billion dollars again he has two choices

here he could borrow money and keep his

stocks or he could sell some of his

stocks pay capital gains on the stocks

he sells but then use the extra to pay

his tax liability for all those new

options that he just got those new

shares that he just got via his options

so if none of that made sense

don't worry about it basically elon musk

probably and is likely to have a 10 to

15 billion tax bill coming up within the

next few weeks just for reference elon

musk has options for 22.8 million shares

which at the pre-market price is worth

somewhere around 26 billion dollars

that's a lot and you're gonna have to

pay a lot of taxes and this has led a

lot of folks to speculate that hey maybe

elon musk is planning on selling his

shares anyway but he doesn't want to

come across as a paper-handed weenie

baby so he left it to the internet

warriors and trolls on twitter which

twitter tends to lean left and

ultimately got this result which most

people pretty much assume that elon musk

knew the answer here would be yes that

yes

57.9 of individuals support elon musk

selling 10 percent of his tesla stock

he asked this question in the same

sentence of course as quote much has

been made lately of unrealized gains

being a measure of tax avoidance or

means of tax avoidance so elon musk now

committing as he says i will abide by

the results of the poll whichever way it

goes elon musk now committing to sell 10

of his tesla stock while at the same

time also changing his twitter handle to

lord edge which is a way of suggesting

that you're pushing controversial topics

on the internet to the edge so he has

redefined himself as a lord edge which i

will show you a couple of other tweets

in a moment here quick news update as

well reuters just broke that a tesla has

released the numbers for sales of

chinese-made teslas in china in october

the number is 54

391 chinese teslas were manufactured 40

666 of those for export that's slightly

less than the 56 thousand and six cars

that we had in september but it's way

more than what we had in august which i

think august yeah here is august was

substantially lower august came in at 44

264. so we went from 44 264 to 56 000.

now 54 000 this is despite the fact that

we are in one of the worst supply crisis

ever

and consider folks every time we get

into the supply crisis which intel says

is expected to last until 2023 apple is

delaying potential iphone shipments or

or forecasting uh weaker sales of

iphones because of these shipped chip

delays and you've got more manufacturers

ordering like pre-ordering more and more

stuff making the supply chain

constraints worse right think about it

if you're running a warehouse and you're

already overflowing because you're

having so many issues with supply chain

constraints and shipping delays and now

people are all of a sudden ordering 20

30 50 more than they used to on top of

you already being backed up because of

shutdowns at ports thanks to covet in

china and other places

the fact that tesla is still crushing it

like that

just makes me a little blurry

but the big big big thing here is how

much is tesla down and what are some of

the other crazy things going on at tesla

is this a buy the dip opportunity well

let's take a look

tesla first in the pre-market in the

very first minute had some incredible

volume we had 29 000 shares of volume in

the first minute 26 000 thereafter and

another 22 000 thereafter so you

definitely had some selling pressure

tesla fell as low as about seven and a

half percent however right now in

pre-market it's only down five percent

this is an indicator that folks are

already buying the dip on the tesla dip

which is pretty incredible that folks

are taking advantage of this although

this is exactly the playbook of what

happened last time elon said stock too

high and interestingly after elon musk

said tesla too high or stock too high

essentially when it was around 740 750

stock or the share price fell to around

650 something like somewhere around

there 730 to 650 something like that so

many people bought the dip the tesla

ended up running to fifteen hundred

dollars shortly thereafter and then elon

musk announced along with tesla's board

that tesla would be doing a stock split

five for one and those rumors and

speculation are circulating again that

we might be seeing another tesla stock

split now elon musk was asked about this

and he did reply about two weeks ago

when tesla was around 900 to a thousand

dollars and elon musk said not yet in

response to somebody asking if it was

time for tesla to do a stock split to me

this is an indicator that elon musk is

probably waiting for a similar sort of

catalyst as last time which is probably

something like that psychological

fifteen hundred dollar mark before doing

a stock split again now last time tesla

stock split five to one it did extremely

well it's worth looking at nvidia

that also did a stock split right here

at about 190 post split and take a look

at the stock's performance after that

split it's also worth noting that the

stock split was announced over here

shortly after earnings and the stock

took off leading up to the split did

sell off a little bit right before and

right after the split but really just

continued its run thereafter and so a

lot of folks expect the same for tesla

and it's possible that folks are looking

at yes not only is this by the dip

opportunity but here's another

consideration if elon musk has stocks

that are vesting he'd probably want them

to vest at a lower price so maybe if

tesla stock falls today elon musk could

just execute his options at a lower

price

now pay taxes on a lower difference

because the way that works is you pay

difference between let's say zero

dollars or the 10 cents you're paying

for your options or whatever five

dollars ten dollars whatever you're

paying and the current value of the

stock so the current value of the stock

is lower elon would actually be paying

less money in taxes so some folks think

that elon musk here is just being a

total evil genius that he needed to sell

stocks anyway to pay taxes why not let

the twitter trolls feel like they had

some say in it rather than elon coming

across as a paper hander then

pay then knowing the stock will probably

also fall by the way after that

then execute your options uh after the

stock falls meaning you'll actually have

to pay less taxes than if you waited

until later

kind of funny because the more tesla

stock runs the more elon's tax liability

actually goes up on those stock options

so kind of evil genius here it's also

speculation pure speculation that maybe

after elon's 10 sale he's gonna have

money left over after he pays his taxes

on his 10 and his options and he might

throw some of that money into bitcoin we

might see bitcoin coming back to a

method of payment for tesla's who knows

but we do know that btc is doing very

well lately uh it did shoot up quite a

bit here 65.8 when i made a video first

covering this on saturday i mentioned

that i was going to be buying bitcoin

because of the speculation that

potentially elon musk might uh put some

money into bitcoin i did mention this

was totally speculation but i did look

for some other indicators and i found

enough for me to suggest that i should

put a million dollars into bitcoin on

saturday and that's exactly what i did

saturday was the sixth and i did that in

about the afternoon i believe the price

i paid was about 61.8

so uh somewhere right around here this

sort of plateau over here 60 not 62. so

wherever 61 800 is

obviously bitcoin has performed pretty

well since then so pretty happy for a

two-day return so far of like eight or

nine percent it's not bad but ethereum

bitcoin doing very very well here but

take a look at some of the other things

that are happening here with tesla's uh

well specifically elon musk so it's

worth mentioning a few things here

one is that the next version of

autopilot is coming out 10.4

and it's also worth noting that elon

musk did reply to somebody asking hey

when are we going to get the model s and

x an update for

autopilot so that way people like me

could actually potentially have the

chance of getting tesla autopilot and so

i have a little bit of insight on this

first elon musk wrote coming soon in

response to this for 2016-17 s's and x's

but i heard through the grapevine that

it's very likely that we're going to

have an upgrade package for the 2016 and

17

s's and x's it's going to be a hardware

upgrade cameras and interior cabin

camera unfortunately i really didn't

want an interior cabin camera i kind of

like that i didn't have it

but it's expected to cost somewhere

around a thousand dollars and i don't

believe that's going to be included in

the original ten thousand dollars but

thousand dollars is still cheaper than

replacing like buying a new car right so

uh that would be a way to get those

older vehicles full self-driving which

is something that i'm excited for a few

other things that were kind of bizarre

here about elon musk on twitter was

definitely one who he may have deleted

it uh where was he replied to ron wyden

and uh it looks to me like he deleted it

i did reply to it so let me see if i

could find it because oh no no no it is

um oh wait did he delete it

uh oh yep nope it is still here it is

definitely worth looking at look at this

so ron wyden who is a senator

says whether or not the world's

wealthiest man pays any taxes at all

shouldn't depend on the results of a

twitter poll it's time for the

billionaire income tax

which take a good look here at ron

wyden's profile picture because that

becomes very very important here elon

musk replies why does your profile

picture look like you just came

it's also worth noting that elon musk

did not write profile picture he wrote

why does your pp look like you just came

you literally can't make this stuff up

to which of course i replied

omfg tesla is 44 of my portfolio and now

i want to buy more i'm not sure who's

more broken me or elon musk

uh yeah so anyway these give you a

little updates kind of on some things

going on here on tesla uh i do want to

talk valuation here as well in the video

let's just take one more look here at

the chart wow we're almost at 66k again

uh well actually we just fell under 66

uh for btc but let's go back to tesla

here so yep still down about 5.14

sitting at about 11.60 this also

makes me very grateful that i did sell a

lot of my uh the call options that i

have i only have two left uh and i had

like 12. so i'm really grateful for that

uh but anyway let's uh let's go ahead

and jump on over it's just worth going

back to some of the evaluation numbers

here so this is my 2005 or 25

spreadsheet for tesla and

what's crazy is my

reasonable target for 2025 and i think

it's very very conservative is two

thousand dollars at

11.65 you're really only looking at

about an 11.28

compounded annual return over five years

which don't get me wrong 11.28

is expected to far exceed the s p 500's

return over the next five years and this

in my opinion is conservative however of

course this could be entirely wrong if

something happened to elon musk and

let's say he disappeared for 11 days or

something weird kind of like the

governor of california

which imagine that imagine becoming the

governor of california and then

disappearing for 11 days without making

any public appearance also right after

you got your coveted booster shot which

kind of kind of sucks i'm all for people

getting booster shots but a little sus

but anyway gavin newsom's missing

what happened to gavin newsom um

maybe he's a tesla short seller and

something happened but anyway

yeah so uh by the end of 2025 i really

think about two thousand dollars is

reasonable and the rate of return is not

as ideal

of course i could manipulate this uh to

the upside there are a few things that i

could do for example if i modified this

to what some other institutional

investors are doing they're going with a

50 p e ratio but they're actually going

with about a 48 to 50 000

uh estimate on the vehicle cost however

that that hurts you a little bit right

that brings you to only about twelve

hundred dollars going forward and that

is with a thirty percent margin as well

so you'd really have to be a little bit

more manipulative here i personally

think that uh tesla's still gonna be at

an insane level of growth and we're

still gonna be pricing that growth in

like crazy remember how p e ratios work

because it's so easy to look at p e and

just like oh my gosh 100 p e it's so

high there's a reason tesla has like a

600 p e today it's because the market is

pricing in so much future growth and so

my expectation is that tesla's going to

kind of grow go on this exponential s

curve and as it ramps and we get from 2

to 3 to 4 million we're going to cars

produced we're going to go from a

price to earnings multiple

of something like uh 600 maybe where we

are now to 200 to 150 to 125 to 100 i

think 100 is probably a 20 24 25 result

and then we'll slowly go down from there

i think 250 for a pe forward pe is

probably more like a 2027 and then we'll

probably settle like at an apple level

like a 30 pe probably closer to 20 30.

so look while i do think tesla has some

really good potential for some great

returns ahead i do think it's a little

bit stretchy at this price me personally

i think i'd probably rather be at under

a thousand dollars because if i'm at

under a thousand dollars that's going to

get me a little bit closer to that

target of a 15

rate of return annually for the next

five years so if i can get a nice

sell-off like a really nice sell-off and

get tesla under a thousand that's gonna

be good for me i'd be really happy for

that that would be where i'm gonna be

buying the dip but otherwise for now i'm

probably just going to uh wait and see

what happens here with tesla is this

going to be the beginning of a downtrend

for tesla or is this just going to be a

continued like a brief little hiccup uh

road speed bump and a continuation i am

about 600k in margin right now so i'm

not like super enthused to be adding

shares so it's not too big of a deal but

anyway folks thank you so very much for

watching i really appreciate you

hopefully this was insightful if it was

consider subscribing and we'll see in

the next video thanks again goodbye

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