Bitcoin Is About to Absorb a Historic Rotation

If the fiat system is $800 trillion and

Bitcoin is $2 trillion, there's a

rotation that'll happen. And that's why

deflation equals delever, delever equals

Bitcoin to go higher as part of the

rotation. Whether it's 70,000, 100,000,

40,000 is not the equation. The equation

that I care about in the chart that I'm

looking at is Bitcoin relative to

software. When that starts to go higher,

everything changes for me. What's going

on, guys? Today, we've got a great

conversation with Jordi Visser. This one

gets very deep into what is going on

with software stocks, the credit market,

Bitcoin, how Bitcoin could benefit from

deflation or inflation. That's going to

be something that all of you are very

interested in. And on top of that, we

talk about the latest developments in

artificial intelligence and how people

are using this stuff, including I

surprised Jordy with one or two things

he didn't know, which is one maybe the

first time that's ever happened on this

show. Here's my latest conversation with

Jordi Visser. All right, Jordy, you

published this great image. Uh, and I

thought we could just go through this

because I think this image really is

going to show us uh how Bitcoin could

benefit from deflation. It's going to

talk about deflation and inflation and

it's also got the macro overlay of just

like what's happening in the world and

why so many people are probably off

sides when thinking about interest

rates, monetary policy, etc. But walk us

through this image that you have here

and kind of how people should think

about what you're trying to communicate.

Yeah. So, I I this has been a um

the last four months, let's take it from

October 10th since that seems to be the

date that the crypto community has has

um leaned on as the day that everything

changed. And let's combine that with the

chart that everyone has now seen, which

is the software stocks relative to

Bitcoin and the fact that it's like a

one for one overlay. And and I will say

not just now but for this. So when

people like Lyn Alden and Sam Callahan

wrote this really good piece on

liquidity and how Bitcoin is basically

ahead of the NASDAQ, but they're all

this positive liquidity story.

>> It's like Bitcoin is the most sensitive

to the

>> most sensitive. And Raul Powell talks

and shows the charts about liquidity to

Bitcoin. I'm not a subscriber to this.

Now, that made sense to me uh let's say

from 2009 or 2010 up until

AI started to accelerate. At some point,

there's a breaking point for me, which

is deflation starts to take over. So,

when you're in a point where the

government is able to print enough money

to stop the Jeff Booth kind of we're

fighting against deflation, exponential

innovation is deflation. At some point,

there's no fight. Um, and you only get

to that point when it's replacing labor.

Now, it's also a democratizing thing.

So, I wrote a paper in Substack this

week about the democratization and I got

into the end about how this destroys the

capital structure of the world. So, what

I believe we're entering into and the

reason software is going down is because

anything that can be recreated

with AI, meaning on code for now,

becomes worthless. Um, it might take 10

years, it might take one year. I don't

agree with anyone that comes up with an

argument that SAS is fine. They are in a

multiple compression because three years

from now, we don't know what's going to

happen. But what we do know is the cost

of intelligence. I pay the same amount

of money for Claude as I did a year ago.

But its capabilities are 100 a thousand

times where they were. Which means in

technology, this deflation is happening

rapidly. The Chinese are offering more

models. So in a world of deflation, all

of the codebased assets should go down.

But when you get to deflation, that's

when you start to care about hiding. And

the only thing you can hide in is

scarcity. So when you watch my videos, I

talk about abundance. That's code. And

then scarcity. We are in the scarcity

seeking mode right now. It's helped

gold, it's helped silver, it's helped

the physical things because for the

majority of people that own the money in

the world, they don't believe in

Bitcoin. The wealthiest people do not

believe in Bitcoin. The only wealthy

people that believe in Bitcoin are the

ones that made their wealth from

Bitcoin. That's it. I That's why when I

did the IPO thing, I'm like, "Guys, why

would you keep all of your money in

Bitcoin? You have to move some of it

into the Trady world. You have to move

some of it into AI, which theoretically

could destroy it." So, that image was

meant to show that we're in stage two of

my thought process, which I think lasts

until humanoids come, but I think

Bitcoin will separate itself from

software, and I think it'll happen this

year. And so for the optimistic side of

me who believes that Bitcoin is the end

result of there a world of code with no

moes pretty soon you're going to have a

growth asset that people look to that is

scarce. So the day that you start seeing

the software names kind of have a little

bounce but Bitcoin has a big bounce

which would be different than what

happened back on liberation day. So

every time we've had a fall to go back

to Lynn Alden and Sam Callahan Bitcoin

and the NASDAQ would run together.

That's why it gets this negative thing.

We are out of that world now. We are now

in a world where deflation is destroying

multiples on companies built on code.

And I don't think people have adapted to

that. And I think the wealthiest people

on the planet who manage money in an

industry that I know so well, they don't

believe in Bitcoin. They don't

understand it because it has no

narrative. It is a true scarce growth

asset that is based on what Mike Norat

said so eloquently there. Whatever you

think about Mike Novagrats, it is a

asset that was built by a community.

Plain and simple, it is accepted as an

asset. Hundreds of millions of people

around the globe accept it as an asset.

To me, in a world of deflation, I don't

know what's going to be here 3 years

from now, which means by definition, the

moes are gone. And you have to believe

in something that has a moat. And as

I've said, religion, gold, and now

Bitcoin. So most people listening to

this are going to believe uh money gets

printed which leads to inflation which

means Bitcoin goes up and that asset

inflation was a direct result of our

inability to balance a budget to keep

the national debt from exploding higher

kind of the the liquidity component that

you're talking about that is let's just

call that up until recently been the

driver of Bitcoin etc. There are going

to be a lot of people who say if you do

not believe that anymore, you're just

moving the goalpost because uh oh,

Bitcoin's not working right now and uh

that means that now you're looking for a

different narrative. I'm not talking

about you in particular, but just like

the Bitcoin community in general. I

think it's a fair question to ask,

right? But what I think you're saying,

Kathy Wood said this to me uh at the

Bitcoin Investor Week conference. uh

I've had a number of other people is

that the driver of value in the world is

actually now changing. It used to be

liquidity and inflation. You're now

saying that deflation could drive value

to all scarce assets, not just Bitcoin,

but gold or anything else. Explain how

deflation drives value into scarce

assets. So, um, at the end of the day,

the one thing that all people have,

whether they're sitting at home or

they're working on Wall Street, is

greed. I don't care what it is. Like,

you're always interested in making

money. And whether it's um

I'm trying to think, Norton from from

the the the honeymooners, which it's a

little bit after your time, but still

for the people out there my age right

now, there's always a scheme that's

going on. There's always some way to

make money.

Money is a driving factor in a lot of

things. I I really do try to follow a

Buddhist framework in my head and think

about things in that way. And money is a

delusion. People think it brings them

happiness, but when you get more, you

need more. So greed is just part of

human nature and it's just part of the

things that um are pleasure seeking. So

I believe there's a rotation that

happens when you get into deflation like

you're getting now. you avoid the things

that are deflating.

Ford has been a horrible investment.

Europe has been a horrible investment.

Japan has been a good investment over

the course of the last 15 years. It's

been a horrible investment since 1992.

The only thing that's worked that has

either beaten Bitcoin or been close to

Bitcoin has been the thing that Sam and

Lynn came up with as number two on the

list. It's the one that Raul talks about

as innovation directly to Bitcoin. They

move together. So theoretically, you

need to believe that the inflation that

we print money, the NASDAQ and

innovation goes higher. Well, that's

over for me. Commodities have been

sideways since, you know, 2007, even

with the rally we've seen because they

peaked then and they went down. Oil was

$155 when I went to China in 2000 May of

2008. Uh we're down in the 60s. So there

is deflation that happens with more

innovation. It's just that we get caught

in this thing that think well they print

money and the stock market goes higher.

The stock market has not gone higher in

Brazil in local terms. True,

>> sorry, in dollar terms. So, I have this

like thing of rotation in the back of my

mind that if the fiat system is $800

trillion and Bitcoin is

$2 trillion, which it's not right now,

but let's assume we get back to two

trillion. There's a rotation that'll

happen. What'll drive it up to 50

trillion to 100 trillion? The only thing

in my mind has always been the rotation.

The most logical answer is if everyone

who owns the 800 trillion, you took

their average age in their 60s and you

gave all that money to someone who's

younger and you said, "What's your asset

allocation? You have 800 trillion in

this bucket. You have 2 trillion there.

Well, I want some money in Bitcoin."

You'd have a rotation and this would go

higher and that would go down

eventually. That's what I believe. So,

I've said this before. I believe the

world is deleveraging. the 800 trillion

is heading back towards where it should

be which is monetary base of the world

nominal GDP of the world both those

numbers are about $120 trillion now the

question is do we go from 800 to 120

trillion overnight well that was the

great depression that's not allowed

that's what the governments are going to

do everything they can to prevent the

more likely scenario is that we come

down in this manner over the course of

20 to 50 years and that's why deflation

equals de leverage delever equals

bitcoin coin to go higher as part of the

rotation. So, I'm not in any way

changing the goalpost. This has always

been my writing. This has always been my

thesis. I will say to everyone, I got

sucked into believing in Bitcoin in this

theory when I listened to Michael Sailor

back in two in 2021 when he was

describing the decision. And I always

say, yes, he did bring up the basing. He

did bring up that the government was

going to steal his money by moving rates

to zero while inflation was going to go

higher. and he was sitting with money in

his bank in his treasury account. But he

also said he was in this position where

he had to make a decision because of

exponential innovation because Microsoft

had completely destroyed his software

business. He could not compete with them

anymore. That is where you have this

running of inflation that is incredibly

deflationary and it allowed these

companies to have a moat that they're

not going to have in a world of

intelligence. So hopefully that clears

up your your question, gets to a better

spot. Today's episode is brought to you

by BitGet. Bit is the world's first

universal exchange serving over 125

million users with access to over 2

million crypto tokens and trady markets

such as 100 plus tokenized stocks, ETFs,

commodities, FX, and precious metals

like gold and silver. They officially

opened its Trady trading suite on

January 5th, 2026, and has already hit

the milestone of $4 billion of daily

volume just days later. Users can now

trade 79 instruments across global macro

assets such as forex, precious metals,

indices, and commodities directly with

USDT, all within their existing BitGate

account. This experience is designed to

feel familiar to crypto native traders

while opening the door to macro-driven

strategies without the need to switch

platforms.

Users can also enjoy high liquidity and

low slippage while trading these assets

with up to 500x leverage. The BitGet

ecosystem is committed to helping users

trade smarter with its AI agent to

execute trade orders as a co-pilot.

BitGet is driving crypto adoption

through strategic partnerships with La

Liga and Moto GP. Aligned with its

global impact strategy, Bit has joined

hands with UNICEF to support blockchain

education for 1.1 million people by

2027. Bit currently leads in tokenized

tread by market, providing the

industry's lowest fees and highest

liquidity across 150 regions worldwide.

Check them out at bitget.com today.

That's bit t.com

today.

Did you see the chart of uh the major

media like newspaper companies their

stock price and then their revenue?

There is this chart that's floating

around where basically the stock price

about 2 to 3 years before the revenue

turned over the stocks all fell. And the

argument that people when they see this

chart is the market's pretty smart. They

saw that the internet was going to

disrupt these media companies. And so

investors started to sell them. And then

only after 2 or 3 years did you start to

see the actual impact of the financials

because eventually the technology force,

you know, just it's too big to overcome.

The reason why that chart is floating

around right now is because people are

looking at the software companies and

saying, "Hey,

the defenders of the SAS companies is

look at how much money they're making.

Look at how much growth they have. Look

at you know the their customer

concentration. Look at uh uh the LTV

expansion of on a per customer basis.

Like all these metrics

are we just two or three years until we

start to see that stuff come down and so

actually the market is forward looking

and realizes the writing's on the wall

or is something else going on that you

know could we actually see multiple

compression but the companies continue

to grow. They actually make more money

in the future. versus just the multiples

have come down and so you don't need to

have impaired financials as much as just

people treat it as less valuable in the

future.

>> So this is a great question and and you

got my brain going a bunch of different

directions. So I'll get to the multiple

compression part because that is

happening right now and I'm going to

show that in the video of the weekend.

Um and it's I mean software companies

multiples collapsing

uh but their earnings are at alltime

highs.

>> Watch out below. So, but let me take let

me let me go a different direction from

where you were going and just think of

something that came in. If you if you go

to a um a hotel, you will inevitably see

physical newspapers that they have

there. Now, in breakfast time, if you go

to any one of the big restaurants here

or Paris or anywhere else, and you grab

a news or you walk into the the

breakfast and you know, you look at the

menu, you realize you're going to have

$150 breakfast of eggs and something.

Um, nothing against the Peninsula and

the St. Reges, but that's just the

reality of what they get away with. Um,

if you just went around the room and you

only selected the people that were

reading a physical newspaper and I asked

you, how would you describe what you

think those people would be? Well,

number one, they'd be older. Um, who

wants to get their hands dirty and go

through that whole thing again? But

there's still people that do it. Let's

assume it's 10% of the people. But then

if you added up the total net worth of

the people in there and what they were

the percentage of, it's going to be

close to the baby boomer like ownership

thing. And that's not a negative thing

to say. Now, do any of them own Bitcoin?

I'm going to say no. Do any of them own

the hyperscalers? 100%.

The reason I bring that up as part of

your question, that is the reason why

when software is going down, Bitcoin has

to go down. The only time this is going

to change is when those people reading

the paper either give their money to

their kids or they get greedy and it's

when the SAS the hyperscalers don't go

up and where Bitcoin does. That is the

multiple compression story. So Bitcoin

to me has to be connected to multiple

compression. It cannot be like I if we

have a collapse in the markets this year

and we get a 20% correction which I

think is a reasonable chance not because

of earnings not because of the economy

not because of rate hikes but because of

what I've talked about the deleveraging

that I mentioned especially for

um diversified asset managers uh who use

coariance matrix to kind of hedge their

book at some point if we stay in this

world which I think we were where

multiple compressions are happening

happening. It's because people don't

know how to value things out three

years. I will talk a lot about this in

this weekend's video. If you don't know

what the world's going to look like in

three years, then volatility has to

increase because you don't know the

value of a company. So, Bitcoin has no

disruption from this. It is still

connected to the fiat system and

software in particular. That's why I I

will keep saying it. It has to be

correlated to some degree. when it

breaks the correlation nothing will stop

it at that point because once it breaks

you'll go we are seeing multiple

compression at the stock level which I

believe is part of the deleveraging that

I expect to happen it's happening from

the deflationary situation that's going

on with intelligence that is driving

things and at the same point increasing

competition to make the world uncertain

what people have to understand Bitcoin

at the end of the day if if I believe

it's going to a million it's a long

duration asset because I don't think

that's happening this year I think

that's happening in the future if you

think anything is going higher in the

future 5 10 years from now and you can

say it with kind of certainty in your

head you're thinking in a long duration

whether it's credit whether it's venture

capital whether it's private equity

private credit doesn't really matter to

me you have a 10-year horizon well 10

years from now humanoids will be in the

elevators with us how do you value even

a physical company at that point how do

you value Nvidia Nvidia at that point

like I don't know how you do it so Elon

Musk talks about this world of abundance

at some point when abundance is truly

everywhere, then you only want to

preserve the wealth that you have made

in your lifetime as opposed to just

having it invested in stocks that you

know nothing about and saying this is

the way the world works. I never thought

it worked that way. Maybe I'm, you know,

stupid. I just didn't think investing in

stocks was a guaranteed winner for all

of our lifetime and that eventually

private businesses would take over for

public companies, which I think I've

talked about. I don't think there will

be public companies in 10 years. I think

there will be an ecosystem of little

entrepreneurs that are making a little

bit of money and enough for them to be

happy while the cost of everything goes

down. That's the world I believe in. I

could be 100% wrong, but I believe the

market every day is getting closer and

closer to that and the multiple

compression is a sign of it.

>> Why do you think that there's not going

to be public companies? That's

interesting.

>> Um I I think a public company by

definition, so you have to kind of go

through this a different direction. Um,

let's use health as an analogy. Let's

assume you see someone who is um 60

years old and they're 100 pounds

overweight and I said to you, what's the

probability of that person living for

another 50 years? And then I saw another

person who was the same age but was

physically fit.

And I asked you, what's the probability?

Now, that person who's physically fit

could die beforehand. But I view all

public companies

as being bloated, overweight people late

in age. So the S&P 500 lifespan is down

to like 15 years. So when you go through

like the hyperscalers, which I pick on

right now, only one of them is from the

1980s, it's Microsoft. The rest of them,

Meta, Amazon, Google, I mean, you're

talking less than 25 years. I mean maybe

Amazon is 25 27 I don't know but

regardless started as a book company

it's not the same right now but those

are not old companies you've got a lot

of companies like Corning that have been

around in the 1800s so physical

companies have very few have lasted so I

don't think they'll be public companies

do I think somehow or another those

companies might be their shares might be

traded but this gets into it if 400 of

the S&P 500 companies basically are no

longer companies and the capital

structure of the future is related to

stable coins, Bitcoin, RWAS, and NFTTS.

Then what the other thing I'm talking

about is you're talking about a world

that doesn't exist anymore. It's like

saying, will there be phones with chords

on them as opposed to smartphones? Um,

the capital structure of the future will

not be the same as capital structure

today.

Onchain fundraising, all this stuff. Um

we've seen now multiple crypto companies

whether they're public or private

acquire various type of cap table

management fundraising on chain you know

etc type of businesses. We also see

tokenization coming fairly quickly. Um

figure technologies company I've been

involved for a while now. They just I

think I think they're the first company

to take uh shares and say we're not

going to take the public shares put them

in like an SPV and then tokenize the

SPV. They instead said if you have a

share that is on the uh I think it's New

York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ and we are

going to create native digital shares

and it's a one for one. So for every

native digital share we create we're

taking one out of circulation on the

traditional stock exchange.

>> Y

>> is all of that like headed towards this

theory that you know there's not going

to be public companies. There may be

like public liquidity but it looks

different than you know the companies of

today.

>> Yeah it's a great question and and we

haven't talked about this. So, um, I I

had a conversation with the figure

people and and it forced me to get to

know their their their business more.

Um, and it's Mike Kagny who runs it,

right? So I watched a couple

YouTubetubes with him and I I I

absolutely for people who are interested

in the traditional finance world to

really start understanding the

difference between RWAS and and onchain.

I think what you're bringing up is

something I'm starting to get more

interested in which is um RWA to me

which are going to grow. I've kind of

thought of onchain and rwas as going

outside this building and needing to

take a car somewhere. You've got your

taxis and then you have your Ubers. Now,

when Ubers came out, we had strikes

between this and blah blah blah. Uber to

me is onchain and in in this world that

I'm using as an example and taxis are

RWAS.

they're around and they merge together

like they're still together, but

eventually you're going to have

autonomous vehicles and then there'll be

no taxis and no Ubers and they'll just

be

>> the the what you're describing here is

and for context for those that uh maybe

weren't you know kind of in this

industry paying attention uh almost a

decade ago in 2017

I used to say over and over again

publicly tokenize the world tokenize the

world tokenize the world and my entire

theory was we had an analog world So,

physical stock certificates, physical

bonds, physical um uh you know uh deeds

to your home, etc. We transitioned at

some point in the late ' 80s into the

early 2000s to an electronic QIP system.

And so today, when you buy an Apple

stock, you are really just moving

electronic QIP around in a database.

There is no physical stock certificate

that gets sent to your house. You put in

a filing cabinet,

>> but there's two settlement times.

There's all these kind of inefficiencies

that people know, but we're cool with it

because it's better than the physical

world.

>> Yep.

>> So, we had analog age. We went to an

electronic age. And then my theory was

always we're going to move to a digital

age. And the digital age is what now

people are looking at as onchain all

this kind of stuff. Now the transition

period between these I thought was going

to happen way faster. So in 2017 I was

like you know it's on our doorstep. Here

we go.

>> Interestingly when people were talking

about tokenization back then no one was

talking about the dollar. Everyone was

talking about equity and real estate and

all those kind of assets. Ended up being

the dollar was the first one. Now if you

just think of currencies Bitcoin is

onchain. It is a native asset to the

digital world.

>> Yeah,

>> the dollars in these stable coins, those

are the equivalent of the RWA. You're

taking dollars, you're basically putting

them somewhere and then you are

tokenizing the the wrapper that you put

the dollars in, right, and use it.

>> The reason why I describe that is I've

always used the terminology of is it

digitally native or is it in a digital

wrapper, right? It's kind of like the

way that I've thought about it.

>> It sounds like you believe that both of

those will be options in the future. or

they just have pros and cons, you know,

to to kind of like if you're an issuer,

as an example, do you go digital native

or do you go into the digital rapper?

That's really what people have to decide

is what are they optimizing for?

>> Um, so let me clarify two things. First

of all, when I just to make sure the

audience cuz I'm saying RWAs and there's

probably a bunch of people. So real

world assets being tokenized everything

that you own a piece of art whatever

bringing it to where it has a cus

something that basically says so you're

taking something created in this other

world putting on what Mike Kagny talked

about I would say passionately which in

hearing him talk I I like when people

get passionate about something but it

was this onchain onchain it has to be on

chain it has to be on chain as opposed

to taking something offchain putting it

on chain and I and I started thinking

about it and it gets into the point that

you're bringing I so I think this is the

year. So there were two risks that I saw

this year. One is um a a very large

deleveraging that happens faster than I

anticipate uh because of this rotation

happening away from software and into

hardware. And I think we're seeing the

early signs of that. And without getting

too wonky here, I do think that this

problem is going to persist the entire

year. This structure will extend into

the next years. People have to take

their leverage now. It's just this world

isn't going to go back. But the other

risk is, and this gets into the to the

thing you brought up, and I want people

to think about this in the crypto world

as well, we are entering a year of agent

swarms,

there's going to be more hacking going

on. You just go read some of the stories

about what happened with Amazon back in

December um when service went down.

I I think being off like kind of onchain

but not truly on chain is going to be an

issue. like this is the thing that

speeds up the demand for onchain stuff.

>> You're saying that there's security

vulnerabilities in having one foot in

the new world, one foot in the old world

>> and and that's something I believe and

you can have a bunch of, you know, Adam

Beck and people that know far more than

I on the vulnerabilities between the

two, but it's ironic that I have to

defend quantum which is far down the

road and nobody's worried about agent

swarms.

>> Describe what an agent swarm is. I don't

think most people know. Um, easiest way

for me to describe, we are at the point

where Open Claw, which allows agents to

just run 24 hours a day, 7 days a week,

365 days a year, where they work

together. So, if you want to hack

something as an individual, think about

what they had to do. Even with the

technology they had, it's one person.

Whenever you watch a TV show, it's like

this mad hacker broke in. Well, now

there's billions

of hackers. But here's the thing. The IQ

right now in the models is up near 140

and we have more models coming out. So

what I like to say to people is, hey

guys,

wouldn't Einstein have been a great

hacker? Well, pretty soon you're going

to have by the end of this year billions

of Einsteins trying to hack into

everything. And you know how I know this

is going to happen? Two important

points. Sam Alman talks about it. You

don't believe him, Deisabitz talks about

it. You don't believe him, Dario Modai.

They're all saying the same thing, which

is nobody's prepared for what's coming.

So, let's get back to the public

companies. If you were a hacker anywhere

in the world and you wanted to hack

something, Bitcoin is this little tiny

thing. So, yeah, it might be a great

accomplishment, but you're not doing it

with AI swarms. With quantum, we'll get

there. But you can absolutely hack into

any large company enterprise you want.

So, aren't they the targets now of this

world by people that have AI agent

swarms on their mini Mac, their their

Mac minis at home? So we've opened up

this door and I don't think people have

gone through the risk. So this half

onchain,

full onchain, this is one of the reasons

why at some point people go, "Wait, I

want my money safe. My assets are not

safe. I could be hacked anywhere. Go to

Bitcoin because the agents worms are not

going to get the Bitcoin." At some

point, people start to realize that when

they're talking about things like

quantum, they haven't really thought

about where we are because they don't

use AI enough. But I'm telling you, I

have people in my life, so many of them

now, including me. But let's leave me

alone. People must think at this point

because of how much AI do I'm I've set

this up. people at home that you would

never think are using open claw and

they're sitting there saying this is the

most amazing thing and I actually don't

know how they're incorporating it into

their life but you have to go back to

Iron Man and watch Jarvis and realize

that's what they're doing is allow these

things to run.

>> Have you seen the woman on uh X who is

uh I think she's a stay-at-home mom

slash uh the teacher of uh her children

that she's homeschooling and she keeps

posting these videos of how she's using

all the latest AI and open all this. All

right. So, uh maybe we'll we'll pull up

and and

>> the home table.

>> So, she is uh I think she's a

stay-at-home mom and it's her kids. What

I'm not sure is is it like a homeschool

pod where there's a couple of other kids

or is it just her kids?

>> But she keeps basically uh publishing

these videos and a couple videos a week

and she's showing like here's how I'm

using this technology. So, I don't

remember all of the exact details, but

um it's very impressive in the sense

where she may go and say, "Okay, uh I

want to do a lesson on um you know, I

don't know how flowers grow and she will

go and she'll get a curriculum and then

she'll get some materials and then

she'll say to the AI, I need you to

create the visual illustrations of all

of this." They'll go and they'll do

that, right? And all this stuff. But

then she started using like OpenClaw and

she started taking it like further and

further and further. And so like, okay,

that's interesting because what you

really have is you have a human who is

relying on essentially like a AI

co-pilot to help teach children. Alpha

School is now publishing all these

results and they're coming out and

they're showing that, you know, kids are

basically every kid in the class like

the equivalent of validictorian or you

know what, whatever their claim to fame

is, but they're doing it in two hours a

day. And so you start to realize, you're

like, wait a second here. Uh the holy

grail is one-on-one tutoring. And you

know, Synthesis, a company that I've

been involved with, um, they've got an

AI tutor where parents can go and it's

one-on-one, but it's like a game. And

so, you're like, "Okay, hold on a

second. There's enough data points here.

Like, this is going to change very, very

rapidly." But to your point that they're

not Google engineers. They're not, you

know, uh, super high-tech. Talk about a

stay-at-home mom who's a home school

teacher.

>> Look what she's able to do. Now, she's

got to have some sort of tech background

because the things she's doing seem to

be fairly, you know, technical and kind

of forward-looking. So, my guess is

maybe she worked in the tech industry or

something before, but like that's where

it starts.

>> And all of a sudden, you're going to

have, you know, teachers across America

who just say, "Hey, why am I going to go

spend money?" Because guess what? One of

the problems in classrooms are every

year. What do they do? Please donate $20

to, you know, Miss Smith's second grade

classroom because she needs to buy

pencils and pens and notebooks and all

this stuff. And oh by the way, she needs

to buy textbooks and well now for 20

bucks a month maybe she can just create

it.

>> And Mark Andre gave an interview in the

last month. I forget what what where it

was but he talked about the difference

between being homeschooled and going to

school and how much I mean you don't get

the social side but the learning side is

much better in one-on-one tutoring. Like

it's not even close. So with AI and he

talked about this. I don't know what

college is going to look like going

forward, but I do know people that get

one-on-one tutoring are going to be

better. So, if if you can do and I I

mean I if you go through school and

you're like, "Well, how many hours a

week did you actually go? What is go?"

You can easily do that through AI. It's

not even a problem and it's more

efficient because it's one-on-one. And

if you don't when you get something, you

move on to the next thing. So, it makes

it it first of all, it makes perfect

sense. The other thing about it and the

thing that I guess as we're talking to

people,

this is far easier than people realize.

So, uh, for 22V, there's a, uh, a

salesperson who was on a call with me

and, you know, as I did my payw wall and

as I've done all these videos and and I

I'm trying to teach people how to use AI

because I I think it the longer you go

without using it in an advanced manner,

the more disruptive and dystopian this

is going to feel like. You have to

understand the power of it. It will

bring you joy, but it also make you feel

empowered. And I said to him, he got off

the call. He's like, "So, how are you

doing all this stuff?" And what do you

mean? He's like, "The turbulence model.

You said you built it. How how did you

build it?" And I was like, "Dude, do me

a favor. If you ever see yourself with

four hours of time, do me one favor.

Take four hours instead of whatever

you're doing for those four hours.

pay $200 for one month for Clawude, the

most expensive one, and then just go

have a conversation and whatever app

idea comes into your head, just tell it

to build the code for it, take that

code, bring it into Replet, and turn it

into an app that will be on your phone

all within the four hours. He did it

last weekend. So, we had the

conversation on Friday, he sat down

Saturday, Sunday, and he's like, "Remind

me again." And I just said, "Boom,

boom." And I got that information from

>> from AI. He did it and he sent me the

link later that day. I'm going to be

showing it in the video.

>> It's cool, right? It's it's not only

cool, but he, you know, no offense to

this guy. He He's not a guy that I would

ever think would be able to use AI or

has never. He's never done anything. So,

for anyone sitting at home that hasn't

done this yet, you have to do it if for

no other reason, just to see the power

of it and also to understand some of the

things we're saying because what you're

describing is helping their kids.

Today's episode is brought to you by

Simple Mining. Bitcoin mining has a

reputation for being complicated, risky,

and hard to evaluate as a real

investment. If you're considering mining

in 2026, what actually matters isn't

headline profitability. It's uptime,

repairs, and whether the operation is

run like a real business. That's why

I've been using Simple Mining. They're

based in Cedar Falls, Iowa, and they run

a white glove hosting operation where

you own your miners. You choose your own

pool, and you have Bitcoin sent directly

to your wallet. They were featured on

the Inc. 5,000 list as the fastest

growing company in Iowa with over 40,000

machines under management. What stands

out to me is execution. They have the

number one rated ASIC repair center. And

for the first 12 months, repairs are

included. If mining margins get tight,

you can pause with no penalties. And if

you want to resize or upgrade your

fleet, there's a marketplace to resell

equipment instead of being stuck. To

help people think it through whether

mining actually makes sense right now,

they put together a short resource

called the 2026 Bitcoin mining

blueprint. It walks through the five

mistakes investors make when allocating

to mining, and they also explain how to

avoid them before deploying capital. If

it sounds interesting to you, you can

get it for free at simplemining.io/p.

That's simplemining.io/p.

Go check it out today and see if you

should get into the mining game.

Today's episode is brought to you by

Arch Public. I absolutely love these

guys. Arch Public is an agentic trading

platform that automates the buying and

selling of your preferred crypto

strategies. Using sophisticated

algorithms like the intelligence,

arbitrage, and oracle protocols, Arch

Public executes advanced automated

crypto strategies fully customized to

your goals. Is your aim to accumulate

Bitcoin during market dips, generate

profits from Ethereum volatility, or

sell Salana or XRP in layers as it

reclaims all-time highs? If so, Arch

Public is built for you. Are you worried

about doing it alone? No problem. Arch

Public provides everyone, yes, everyone

with hands-on dedicated support from

their concierge team to help implement

the strategy that you choose. As a

preferred trading partner of Coinbase,

Kraken, Robin Hood, and Gemini, Arch

Public offers a proven track record of

security and performance so that you can

trade with confidence. Sign up today at

archpub.com

and start your automated trading

strategy for free. No catch, no hidden

fees, just smarter trading. Your crypto,

your exchange, your profits. Archub. Go

to archpub.com and tell them I sent you.

>> I want to talk about one more thing on

AI and then uh let's talk about credit.

Um did you see Roric AI?

This is me, you know, bragging a little

bit here, but

>> this is going to be the second time

you've said have you seen and I I don't

know what you're talking about.

>> Yeah, I'm an investor in in so uh a lot

of people don't know this. I'm an

investor in Replet. I'm an investor in

uh Synthesis. I'm an investor in

lovable. I'm an investor in Rooric. I'm

an investor in Micro One. Stop. A lot of

luck. Not a lot of skill, but a lot of

luck.

>> I know. I was paying for dinner next

time.

>> Well, uh, as, uh, Peter Thiel says, uh,

you can be rich and poor at the same

time. You can be very paper uh,

successful and cash poor. So,

>> you keep having kids, you'll be poor

>> until they all go somewhere. Then we got

to figure it out. But, Roor, so

Lovable's whole thing is uh, you type

in, you know, kind of natural language

prompt and you can build all these

websites and stuff uh, products types of

ROR mobile apps.

but not on Android.

They are replacing Xcode on iOS. And so

you now, they just launched it this

week, can go in natural language, tell

them what you want, and they will create

an iOS app for you. Can one or two shot

it and it is incredible. It is an iPhone

app. You can have an Apple Watch. You

can put it on the Apple TV app. I mean,

it is crazy what you can do. And so the

reason why that becomes really

interesting to me is

10 years ago what most people thought

you could jailbreak an iPhone. But

outside of jailbreaking the iPhone,

Apple kind of had this walled garden.

And that walled garden meant that most

of the like hacker-ish innovation went

to Raspberry Pies and Android and you

know kind of like the open type uh

operating system.

you start being able to do this stuff on

Apple with the distribution that Apple

has at the high, you know, kind of

luxury level and you can do it across

device. So, it's not just the iPhone but

Apple Watch.

>> Mhm. We're not ready like like we are

not ready for that world where as uh I

saw somebody eloquently tweet. We're now

attacking the offshore development uh

companies

because you don't have to go hire

somebody in name your country elsewhere

and pay them 1,500 bucks to build

something for you. You just one-shot it

on, you know, for 200 bucks a month or

whatever.

>> Yeah. So here's the So using that

example um and it's funny you mentioned

that because he did he called back. He's

like, "To get it on on to get an app on

the phone is a lot more work." And and

I'm like, "All right." He's like, "I I

can do web- based, right?" I'm like,

"Yeah, do it as an HTML. It'll be up

right away." And that's what he chose to

do. So, what you're describing is both

good and bad. And I want people to

understand the reason that

>> he took the he took the easy way out.

>> Yeah. Um well, and that's the way he

consumes things in his his mind. But um

the reason this is important for the SAS

conversation, so if if if everyone is

able to build an app, then how do you

find the apps in the app store? Because

as it is right now, it's very hard for

me to find podcasts that are good.

>> Good content should rise to the surface.

I hope that the service I'm providing

for people with the free YouTube is

helping them navigate this whole thing

between the disruption of artificial

intelligence into their portfolio and

then where crypto fits in the whole

equation. And if that content is good,

then it'll stay and it'll gather

viewers. But if it's not, there's a

billion podcasts out there and I can't

consume all of them and neither can the

people watching. So I have to make sure

that I'm staying on top of things and

hopefully bringing information that

helps not only them but share it with

other people. If someone creates an if

everyone creates an app tomorrow and

there's 8 billion apps, there's no way

to find the apps. So what'll end up

happening is theoretically everything

will be bespoke. And this is why I don't

believe in the arguments of SAS. Yes,

enterprises might be stuck, but like I

gave with the RWAs and the kind of we're

offchain. Okay, well, if you're onchain,

you're a different type of person.

Enterprises will never be onchain.

They're still on mainframes in a lot of

cases from the days of the 1970s because

of how big they are and how bloated.

That's why there won't be public

companies in the new capital structure.

They couldn't change that quickly if

they wanted to. It's the reason why I

think Palunteer is a buy relative to

Microsoft because Microsoft can't

change. It's just too big and they have

they're hoping people will pay for

C-Pilot and stay in their world where

none of the new companies are going to

use Outlook. They're going to use Gmail

and then they'll go on to something

else. So, I do believe the example

you're giving for people out there when

you're thinking about the SAS arguments

and debates, which I don't want to be

involved in, it's really comes down to

bespoke. How do I customize something

for me and can I do it immediately?

Because there's nuances for everything

that happens in a business in your life

and I think that's where the world is

going is bespoke apps.

>> So that was all the fun stuff. Now we

got to get to the tough conversation.

Blue Owl is in the headlines. Everyone

claims that they're gating redemptions.

They came out and said, "No, we're not.

We're actually giving back more money."

Fugazi fugazi. Uh are there problems in

the credit market? Is private credit not

what people were told it was? How do you

think about the fear, the chaos, the

uncertainty, the volatility, the lack of

marktomarket in the private credit

world?

If Salesforce.com's multiple is going

down, which it has, the stock is down

significantly.

A company that is viewed as the best

CRM system,

um, how can't private credit be an

issue? you're lending money to to

businesses

and we're taking Salesforce down without

earnings going down which means we're

questioning their future. And that's why

I said longduration assets are in

trouble. So there's no doubt that

private credit, private equity, venture

capital, all these places have this

problem that I that I spoke about which

is this hyperco competitiveness. If you

can envision a world where there are

billions of apps, well, apps are just

moneti theoretically monetizing an idea

because you can create the app and not

put it on the iPhone. But if all of a

sudden the app store is like got

billions of things. The question is,

okay, now I got to create an app for a

search engine to weed through all the

stuff and find it and you depend a lot

on things that just don't exist. That's

one of the problems of just too much

code being built is the hyperco

competitiveness. And I think where the

credit fears have gotten to from what

I've seen of their portfolio somewhere

between eight and 13% I think it's

closer to 13% is in the software

internet services side. The IT services

sector so not the SL sector but the IT

services is down 20% this month. This

includes companies like Asenture like

this is the consulting side. It's the

service side because you don't need them

as much. Now do the enterprises need to

pay them? Yes. But that's because

they're slowm moving, bloated. Again, if

someone is, you know, if you're trying

to sell food that's unhealthy, you're

not going to be selling it to someone

who's eating soybeans and stuff. You're

going to sell it to people who are less

healthy. So, these bloated enterprises,

yes, they're still going to pay for the

money, and that's why their earnings are

going up. What the market is really good

at is looking forward and going, but

who's replacing that bloated company?

Who which which ones are going to use

Salesforce? And they're questioning it.

They're not saying it won't happen.

they're just questioning it and

Salesforce needs to adapt. So I think as

you go through Blue and all of these

companies and Blue is just one that's

had other issues because remember we had

the tricolor situation for the auto um

subprime auto lending stuff that blew up

in September. I think as I'll show in

this video remember student loan

delinquencies through the roof. Um and

and and again delinquency is measured by

90 days plus paid. Now this is not

enough to take the economy down but in

auto loans in student loans in

commercial real estate in uh what's the

other one credit card all of them are

either at or above the levels they were

in the great financial crisis again

these are small components because if

you look in the aggregate it's not that

big but in terms of just the percentage

of ones that are up there they're big

and so I think the private credit world

is being dragged into the software world

and what people should realize is we're

now having trouble with anything built

on code. So energy companies which used

to make up or they may still make up the

highest percentage of the high yield

market. They're not in trouble and the

reason they're not in trouble is because

we need excess power in the future and

oil prices are stable. The problem for

again technology companies is the pace

of change and the fact that we have this

deflationary spiral which makes it very

difficult and so credit which is a long

duration. you're lending people for long

periods of time, they've become an

issue. And like a run on a bank,

investors want money back. So, there's a

follow-up story today about how they

ended up getting that money. It doesn't

read too well. I'll leave it as whether

the the story is true or not, but they

talked about bragging, oh, these were

99.7%

par. We got them done, but it seems like

one of the companies they sold them to

is a company they're involved with. Then

there was a bunch of pension funds that

were brought up in this and I'm sure the

pension funds are now going to be

checked like did were these good assets

and if they were good assets and worth

what they were again when you're in a

Ponzi scheme and I'm not saying Blue is

a Ponzi scheme but I am saying if you're

in a Ponzi scheme and you have a lot of

money as long as you have some cash and

go. So, if you're selling off the best

assets to get cash to give out,

unfortunately, you end up in a situation

where I think the skepticism on these

businesses since no one knows for sure,

especially in private credit, is going

to remain as long as the deflationary

pressures and technology stay.

>> The blessing and the curse of something

being opaque,

>> yeah,

>> is you don't have to market to market.

Nobody also knows what it is, right?

Nobody knows what it's worth. And that

has been looked at as a blessing for a

long time.

I don't know. But maybe it becomes a

curse now.

>> I I I think it does. But again, I'm I'm

I'm going to give people now the um a

scenario that could happen this year

that would drive the market down

significantly. And even though I

wouldn't it wouldn't stay down, the one

thing I know about credit is when you

start seeing the charts that I'll show

this weekend, which are okay, we don't

have high yield spreads widening out,

but we do have the tech high yield

spreads widening out. So a lot of times

there's enough diversification it can

go. My my fear is this. If I asked you

what's the biggest debt fear story in

the world, it's the hyperscalers. I

mean, they're taking Oracle's taking out

lots of money. Their CDS is through the

roof. meaning people are betting in a

fairly high probability that they'll

have trouble in the next 5 years. Um

Google just issued 30 some odd billion

dollars of debt. Like these companies

that never issued debt are now

aggressively issuing debt. So if there

was a problem, it would have to be on

the hyperscalers. That's the only thing

big enough in this to to make people

shake. And they've been worried about

it. I think this year if the credit

stuff continues and I've talked about

this if software doesn't bounce there's

and I I don't think it'll bounce

significantly but it either needs to

become a value trap meaning it just kind

of sits at these depressed multiples and

everyone's trying to spend time picking

and choosing it but it's not worth it

because it's just dead money for now.

You could end up in a scenario that if

it falls down one of the hyperscalers is

Microsoft. Microsoft is a it's part of

the SAS world, but it's also part of the

hyperscaler world. So, they're kind of

in the epicenter and they've got one

foot in there, one foot in the

hyperscalers. The hyperscalers have

underperformed the market significantly.

It's one of the reasons why I'm positive

on global things. You asked me and I I

didn't directly um answer it last week,

but you said, "Okay, you might be

freaking people out. Where should they

put their money?" I'm like, well, if you

want to be safe and make money this

year, it's commodities, but it's also

moving into Europe and emerging markets

and Japan and other places because they

don't have that much software. 90% of

the software in MSEI world is US

companies. So, if you don't want to be

like in the the the the pain, go to the

foreign countries because they have a

lot more manufacturing and and

commodities. So I do think that the

reality is if people want to get

negative for this year, you could easily

get to the point particularly with the

Chinese models coming out faster and

faster and faster with the likelihood of

data centers not being built on time.

The reality that we're heading into

midterm elections where right now it is

starting to move. We're not only in the

House right now, but we're starting to

get in the Senate probabilities for

Republicans to lose that. I think the

data center AI push back could be a

bigger story as we get into the second

half of the year. And I think you can

make an argument that if the

hyperscalers and their ability to

actually get this stuff done, they need

the revenues to get their RPOS. They are

spending the money. If these bottlenecks

between memory and turbines and all this

stuff really start to back up and the

Chinese models keep accelerating, you

could end up a point where people start

worrying that this is real and maybe

open AI is an issue and all this stuff

comes to the market. when you already

have credit weakening and you've got the

stories I mentioned about other parts of

the market plus you have the auto

lending side you still have the

commercial real estate side it all

starts to add up and if that happens and

you move equities down then it turns

into a very very scary event for a short

amount of time and I do think this year

that is a probability that is greater

than 25% that we get a a shock of that

magnitude in our heads whether it's 5%

10% 15% fall in the S&P I do think it's

going to happen this year what do going

to uh do in your video this week.

>> Uh I'm going to go in detail at the very

beginning to um emphasize that I think

people are now at the stage where if

you've ignored AI as a money manager, as

someone trading, you don't have any time

anymore. Um it's over. I I it's moving

that fast that every day that you're not

doing something, you're falling further

behind. So I'm going to emphasize that

my payw wall launch. So, I'm going to

emphasize that if you want to not only

keep on top of things that I go more in

depth with, find investment

opportunities, but also relentlessly

talk about the information that we're

going through in detail about why this

regime is shifting. It's there. Also,

the videos that I'm doing to help train

people. I'm finishing a paper on and I

think you'll be interested in this. I

don't know if these are topics that you

go through, but I people have asked me

the question, well, how do I have to

think differently? I don't know how to

ask good questions. And so I have two

things that I'm fascinated with. Um

being trained at Quantico and like how

they train anyone graduating naval

academy anything and you're like I want

to go to Quanico. Okay. What do they do

to your brain to constantly ask

questions in uncertainty because that's

what we're going into. So you need in AI

you need to think more like someone who

came out of Quanico. The other thing is

you need to think more like someone who

came out of the Santa Fe Institute which

is more of a systems thinking get the

whole puzzle thing in. that is the way

that I'm teaching people how to use AI

or at least how to develop an AI

mindset. So I think for people who are

interested in that kind of stuff. I'm

going to talk about that and then of

course I'll go through all of all of the

markets and all of the stuff that

happened. It's been a busy week and

hopefully it makes the Bitcoin crowd

happy that uh this slide that I showed

which I'll go through. I really do think

people have to start paying attention to

the way Bitcoin is trading not in an

absolute basis whether it's 70,000

100,000 40,000 is not the equation. The

equation that I care about in the chart

that I'm looking at is Bitcoin relative

to software. When that starts to go

higher,

everything changes for me.

After you guys watch this video, please

subscribe to his YouTube channel. The

guy comes here every single week. He

drops all this knowledge. We get to

learn from him, me included. And all you

got to do is you just hit the subscribe

button and then he thinks, "Wow, people

are really enjoying this." It's that

simple. That's the thank you. It's a

digital handshake or digital thank you.

just hit the subscribe button and uh

sure will be happy. So, thanks so much

for doing this

>> and thank you to everyone. You guys were

extremely nice at your event.

>> I met a ton of people and uh

>> the community is unbelievable. It's

>> cuz you're cool. It's cuz you're cool.

>> No fashionable. It's good. It's because

it's

>> HRV plummeting, you know, or HRV is uh

raising. Heart rate is plummeting.

People are like, "Hey, I got to be

around that guy."

>> It was very, very good to be around

everyone.

>> All right. Thanks, everyone.