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SCAM OR 10X? SpaceX Data Centers in Space

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0:00

Wow, it's official. Not only might

0:02

SpaceX go public, but it seems to be

0:04

taking Echoar and Rocket Lab on a rocket

0:07

ship ride with it. We got to talk about

0:10

not just SpaceX, which is famous for

0:13

bringing us these reusable boosters.

0:15

This one landing just minutes ago, but

0:18

also its impact on Tesla. So SpaceX, its

0:23

impact on Tesla, we're going to talk

0:24

about that. and Optimus Robots and the

0:26

robotics market, Echoar, Rocket Lab,

0:29

financials, fundamentals, valuations,

0:32

and a whole lot more. So, buckle up.

0:35

Let's get into what the heck is going on

0:36

here. So, first things first, we last

0:38

heard rumors that SpaceX might go

0:40

public, which I got really excited about

0:42

because my venture capital company

0:44

invested in SpaceX back at about a $350

0:47

billion valuation. And at the time I

0:51

thought, man, Elon, you got your work

0:53

cut out for you, but you know what? We

0:55

want to be on the ride. And holy smokes,

1:00

back then we were told cash flow

1:02

positive, 13 billies in annual recurring

1:06

revenue by the beginning of 2025. Well,

1:08

here we are, end of 2025. Now, we're

1:10

expecting potentially as much as 24

1:13

billion of annual recurring revenue. And

1:16

take a look at this. SpaceX planning to

1:18

pursue 2026 IPO at what kind of

1:22

valuation? $1.5

1:26

trillion.

1:28

Holy smokes. More than a 4x from when my

1:33

venture capital company invested in

1:34

this. And frankly, the game has changed

1:37

since then. This is remarkable. Not only

1:40

is Bloomberg reporting that this IPO

1:42

could potentially be the largest IPO

1:45

ever in the history of IPOs, back uh in

1:48

2019, Saudi Aramco, they raised uh they

1:51

sold about 1.5% of their company and

1:53

they raised $29 billion selling such a

1:56

small slice of their company. SpaceX

1:59

might raise between 30 to4 billion

2:02

dollar at$ 1.5 trillion dollar at the

2:07

middle to end of 2026. Now what I think

2:10

is kind of exciting about this is it

2:12

seems like they keep kind of moving up

2:15

when they want to do it. First we heard,

2:18

oh yeah, you know, we might do it as

2:20

late as the, you know, late 2026, but

2:24

that apparently has been moved up to

2:26

potentially the middle of 2026,

2:29

dependent on market conditions. You can

2:31

see that here. SpaceX's management and

2:33

advisers are pursuing a listing as soon

2:35

as mid to late 2026. Now, obviously,

2:39

market conditions is just a fancy way of

2:41

saying, "Hey, look, if we think that

2:42

there's some kind of year-over-year

2:44

inflation scare, and the Fed goes

2:46

hawkish, and we get nervous about a jobs

2:48

recession, then obviously we'll delay

2:50

until 2027. There's a lot of due

2:52

diligence to do, or maybe even after

2:54

that." This is a very normal

2:56

consideration for companies thinking

2:58

about going public. I know because I

3:00

personally have been through the process

3:02

with a very very small company, our

3:04

little baby house hack. Uh, and we

3:06

decided against it in part because of

3:09

market conditions. Now, we'll see. We

3:11

got some really cool things cooking now,

3:13

but let's focus on SpaceX for now. So,

3:15

this timing thing really normal, but it

3:17

doesn't surprise me that what they're

3:20

trying to do now is jump on space data

3:24

centers. And if you're going to do a

3:27

data center play, while at a time people

3:29

are worried about private credit, Oracle

3:31

credit default swap skyrocketing. JP

3:34

Morgan's worried about increasing costs

3:36

because of the cost of lending and

3:38

inflation leading their stock to fall

3:41

4%. Oracle's down like 40% since people

3:44

started getting nervous about the

3:46

private credit blowups that we're

3:48

starting to see. You know, you might

3:50

kind of think, all right, maybe we're

3:52

starting to run the clock a little bit

3:54

on the whole data center play. So, if

3:55

we're going to appeal with space data

3:57

centers, let's hop to it before data

3:59

centers start becoming ubiquitous. Not

4:02

to reference the stock Ubiquiti, which

4:04

is a really great company, but I mean,

4:06

look at Oracle. We're down from $345 now

4:09

to $221 billion or uh $221 per share.

4:13

And part of that is because they do hold

4:15

over $80 billion in debt. So, you can't

4:18

really blame that the company has gone

4:20

down about 35% when you're getting

4:22

nervous about debt.

4:25

And it certainly doesn't help that even

4:27

after Nvidia picks up potentially 5% of

4:30

its revenue by selling H200's even more

4:33

powerful than the H20 chips to ti to

4:36

China their stock barely moves. In fact,

4:40

if you look at yesterday and today, you

4:43

basically ended the day at the same spot

4:45

as when that China deal was announced.

4:48

So, I get why Elon Musk in part might be

4:51

thinking, you know what, now might be

4:53

the time to IPO while we still can. And

4:56

the AI data center boom is really,

4:58

really exciting. But the space data

5:01

center boom is a totally different play.

5:05

And this one, I have to say, I'm really

5:07

excited about. So, not only are we going

5:09

to talk about data centers in space and

5:10

how this works, but this is going to tie

5:12

into Tesla, and then it'll tie into

5:14

Echoar. And of course, we'll talk about

5:17

uh Rocket Lab. You got to talk about

5:19

Rocket Lab as well. But first,

5:21

understand SpaceX's valuation here.

5:23

Okay, they were $137 billion at January

5:26

of 23. Then they were July 23, 150

5:29

billion. January 2024,

5:31

180, then 210 by the summer of 24, 350

5:35

by Jan 25, that was around they started,

5:38

they were doing in uh late 2024. That's

5:41

actually when I launched my uh VC. And

5:43

what's really incredible about that is

5:45

they had about $13 billion of annual

5:48

recurring revenue at the end of 2024,

5:51

which is the same as OpenAI says they

5:53

have now, except SpaceX was running at a

5:57

profit and cash flow positive. So, think

6:00

about that. Profitable business,

6:02

profitable since January of 2023.

6:04

Actually, profitable business since

6:06

January of 2023.

6:08

$660 million of free cash flow and $13

6:13

billion of annual recurring revenue.

6:15

OpenAI, on the other hand, $13 billion

6:18

of annual recurring revenue. Same, but

6:20

massive losses and massive negative free

6:23

cash flow, right? They're promising the

6:25

world we're going to do $1.5 trillion of

6:28

spend. And people are like, right, where

6:30

are you getting the money from? And uh

6:32

frankly there is nobody who would love

6:34

to stick it to Sam Alvin more than Elon

6:36

Musk which is why I think Elon is like

6:38

bro

6:40

space data centers let's IPO under space

6:45

data centers and then we can finally

6:48

cream homeboy homeboy homeboy Sam Alman

6:52

cuz guess who's also talked about doing

6:55

space data centers. Yeah, you guessed

6:58

it. Here he is. Like I do guess that a

7:00

lot of the world gets covered in data

7:01

centers over time, but I don't know

7:03

because maybe we put them in space.

7:05

>> Like maybe we build a big Dyson sphere

7:07

on the solar system and say, "Hey,

7:08

actually makes no sense to put these on

7:09

Earth."

7:10

>> But like I can say with conviction the

7:12

world needs a lot more processing power.

7:15

But if that looks like tiling data

7:17

centers on Earth, which I think is what

7:18

it looks like in the short term, in the

7:20

long term also, or we do go build them

7:22

in space, I don't know. It sounds cool

7:23

to try to build them in space.

7:25

>> But Sam Alman's not the only person

7:26

who's thought of this. Jeff Bezos has

7:28

talked about it. Elon Musk has talked

7:29

about it. Bill Gates talked about it

7:31

back in 2024. Here he is. Uh, you know,

7:34

solar panels in space. Maybe, you know,

7:38

some people have even talked about,

7:39

okay, put the whole data center up

7:40

there. Uh, it's just bits. Uh, actually

7:43

moving bits from space to ground is

7:45

easier than moving energy uh from space

7:48

to ground. So, you know, particularly

7:50

because launch costs are down, you can

7:52

at least dream of of those things. And

7:54

so none of that is really a huge

7:56

surprise. It's just a surprise that

7:59

SpaceX is also thinking about doing

8:01

space data centers at the same time as

8:04

they've got potentially a run rate to

8:06

get to 23 million subscribers to

8:08

Starlink by 2035. They currently have

8:12

roughly 60% of all satellites in orbit.

8:15

Now those are circa 2024 numbers, so

8:17

they might be a little dated here. and

8:18

they the only private contractor that

8:20

sent astronauts to the International

8:23

Space Station. Kind of incredible. At

8:25

least that was as of late 2024. Now, the

8:28

cool thing about SpaceX is now we're

8:31

thinking potentially that we could do a

8:33

directtoell service in partnership with

8:36

Apple and T-Mobile. That was just

8:38

announced in November of 2025, so about

8:40

a month ago. But more on that in just a

8:42

moment. Instead, let's understand this

8:44

data center in space thing for a moment

8:46

because this seems ah I got to do it.

8:49

I'm a dad. Out of this world. Okay. All

8:53

right. So, people are talking about

8:54

doing data centers in space because you

8:57

frankly you don't have to deal with city

8:59

permits. You don't have to deal with

9:01

energy on Earth. You actually don't even

9:03

potentially have to deal with batteries.

9:06

Yeah, think about that. You potentially

9:08

just have solar panels that operate

9:12

24/7.

9:14

Now you might say, Calvin, how is it

9:17

possible that it could operate 247?

9:22

You know, the Earth is going to block

9:23

the satellites or whatever. True, a lot

9:26

of satellites are in the dark about 50%

9:29

of the time they're operating. But have

9:31

you ever wondered why Google doesn't

9:33

have any dark spots? when you're looking

9:35

on the satellite, you're like, "Huh,

9:37

it's always daytime when I look on

9:38

Google Maps for the satellite view."

9:40

That's because these satellites and

9:43

where you would probably put data

9:45

centers operate in what's called the

9:49

Terminator zone. Little weird. No,

9:53

Arnold Schwarzenegger isn't up there.

9:55

The easiest way to look at it is just by

9:57

looking at this graphic from uh

10:00

Spacecrafts, I believe is their channel

10:01

name. And basically the solar powered

10:04

satellites will just fly right here at

10:08

the edge. So as the earth is spinning

10:11

they kind of just float around the edge

10:14

of the earth circling right where that

10:17

line is. So basically right where the

10:20

sun kind of is between dawn and dusk

10:24

that's where the satellites operate

10:26

which means the satellites solar panels

10:28

always have sunshine. So you don't even

10:30

need batteries, which is insane. Now

10:34

there are some problems that come with

10:36

data centers in space. And when I say

10:37

some problems, there are quite frankly a

10:39

lot of problems. One of the benefits is

10:41

that hey, if you could get unlimited

10:44

energy, great. And we think that space

10:46

is colder because when we go up in a

10:49

plane, it gets colder. We all know that.

10:53

The problem is space is really funny.

10:55

space can go from negative 120 degrees

10:58

Fahrenheit to positive 120 degrees

11:00

Fahrenheit. So, you're going to have a

11:01

whole lot of expansion and contraction.

11:04

Our 5090 GPUs to play Rust or Age of

11:08

Empires or whatever you're playing

11:10

probably ain't going to cut it. You're

11:12

going to need something a little custom

11:13

or you're going to need some special

11:15

housings that are more capable of this

11:17

sort of expansion contraction. Uh, and

11:19

ironically, we think that space will be

11:21

better for cooling, but it's actually

11:24

worse because there's no air flow in

11:26

space. And so, what you actually have is

11:29

when heat is generated by a device, it

11:32

just hangs out. It's almost like having

11:34

a coffee thermos. Things just stay hot.

11:37

And so, this is where we usually liquid

11:39

cool. But the problem is water freezes.

11:42

So, you have to use things like liquid

11:45

ammonia, which stays liquid at extremes,

11:47

but it's extremely toxic. So, when we

11:50

had a leak at the International Space

11:52

Station and astronauts got it on them,

11:54

they had to bathe, sunbathe, the ammonia

11:58

off and get it evaporated in space

12:01

before going into their airlock and back

12:03

into the ISS because the toxic vapors

12:05

would have killed the astronauts on the

12:07

ISS. This was back in 2013. Yeah. So,

12:10

like there are problems using these

12:12

ammonia cooling systems. Now, they

12:14

exist. Basically, have you ever seen in

12:17

those old homes the like old Here, I'll

12:19

just type this in. Old home radiator.

12:22

Uh, yeah. Like the baseboard radiators

12:24

that run water through to heat your home

12:27

or whatever. You know, these old nasty

12:28

things right here. Wow. You could buy

12:30

one here. Cast iron radiator. Vintage.

12:32

1,500 bucks. I don't know why that just

12:36

sounds like an extreme ripoff, but okay.

12:38

I'm not installing radiators anytime

12:39

soon. I'm a I may be a real estate guy.

12:42

Okay, I'm and and I may be looking to

12:45

find out how I can acquire real estate

12:47

in space, but I've resigned to the idea

12:49

that it just ain't going to happen.

12:51

Okay, I'm just going to focus on buying

12:52

my little wedge deals. We're going to

12:54

focus on the AI that we're doing because

12:56

we're releasing our AI this month, our

12:58

real estate AI. We think it's like the

13:00

first and greatest AI. Uh we're really

13:02

excited about it. You could learn more

13:03

at house hack.com. Not a solicitation

13:05

even though you can invest in the

13:07

company. is not a solicitation to invest

13:08

in the company. Read the offering

13:09

circular houseack.com. It's got all the

13:11

info and demo and stuff, but anyway,

13:14

basically these space stations have

13:15

massive radiator panels on them. You

13:18

might think that these are all solar

13:20

panels when you look at these, but these

13:22

are actually radiators right here and

13:24

they run the liquid uh ammonia and then

13:27

these are the solar panels. So, you kind

13:29

of have both parts on the space station.

13:32

And servicing this is a big deal. Uh,

13:35

this is kind of what the cooling system

13:36

looks like. So, in 2008, the New York

13:40

Times reported on a robot called Dexter

13:44

that was designed to basically be a

13:47

humanoidish robot that would essentially

13:51

be able to be remotely operated and fix

13:55

cooling issues. So, humans didn't have

13:57

to deal with the gas, the ammonia,

13:58

right? Or the ammonia liquid, which can

14:00

evaporate and turn into gas and then

14:02

it's deadly if you inhale it. And so

14:04

what's kind of crazy about this is that

14:06

this robot not only is massive, it's got

14:09

like this 11 foot arm, but it costs 200

14:12

freaking million dollars, which is

14:15

insane. And this is really where, in my

14:17

opinion, Optimus comes into play because

14:20

how great would it be to just have a

14:21

tethered Optimus robot literally cabled

14:25

in to these satellites and you have an

14:27

Optimus, even if it's tea operated,

14:29

right? Even if somebody's got the VR

14:31

glasses on, like what we saw with the

14:32

water bottles, is it AI? Is it not? Who

14:34

knows? Who cares? The point is, even if

14:36

it is teleoperated, you put an Optimus

14:38

robot as basically a space janitor, they

14:43

could go fix the radiators on data

14:46

centers in space. And so this is where I

14:48

said, "Hey, we're also going to be

14:50

talking about Tesla here. Here's the

14:52

Tesla talk." Kind of crazy, kind of

14:54

exciting if you think about it. It's

14:56

like all kind of linking together. So

14:58

this Canadian robot Dexter, come on,

15:00

man. Like 3,400 lb and $200 million,

15:03

just getting that thing to space is

15:05

going to cost like 50 million bucks.

15:06

It's insane. So you don't want that.

15:08

Instead, these humanoid robots, I mean,

15:10

we look at what Morgan Stanley just said

15:12

about robots. Freaking insane. Morgan

15:15

Stanley just this morning was talking

15:16

about how uh we could see robots in 10

15:20

years, here it is, hit uh 25

15:25

trillion dollar by 2050 of global

15:29

revenues, robot revenues, $25 trillion.

15:33

Just for perspective, the United States

15:35

total economy, all goods and services

15:37

right now is $25 trillion.

15:42

And so I'm like, what? That's literally

15:46

doubling the United States. That's

15:48

crazy. 3,400B.

15:51

Uh, well, Dexter is a 3,400 lb robot. Do

15:54

you want that or would you rather Right

15:57

here the humanoid robotics future? It's

16:01

kind of crazy. Okay. Absolutely wild.

16:04

Uh, oh, look. Um, there it is. We put

16:06

the little coupon code right here if you

16:08

want to get our reinvest AI or the uh

16:11

courses over at meetke.com. Santa

16:13

reinvests. That's what the coupon is.

16:15

That's why we were talking about tommo

16:17

this morning. Remember, not FOMO, not

16:18

SOMO. We're on to Tommo with the Federal

16:21

Reserve. It's freaking nuts. But anyway,

16:23

I'm coming to the conclusion that China

16:25

is going to dominate manufacturing, but

16:27

I'm okay with that because we're going

16:28

to use it. And space data centers might

16:31

be where we actually use these robots. I

16:33

don't know if they'll be Optimuses, but

16:34

I do think we'll have space janitors

16:36

basically that are robots. Now, this

16:39

whole thing is called ISM. It's inspace

16:41

servicing, assembly, and manufacturing.

16:44

I guess there's like a whole acronym for

16:45

it. Uh, but something to think about is

16:48

what about data and how does this link

16:51

with rocket lab and how does this link

16:53

with Echoar

16:55

uh and and you know all of that. Okay,

16:57

so let's explain that because this is uh

16:59

this is important. So what we have is

17:04

low earth satellites like Starlink are

17:06

great for data transmissions to our

17:09

little satellite dishes and actually a

17:11

pretty rapid speed 20 to 40

17:14

milliseconds. Honestly, it's like

17:15

playing Rust. Totally fine. It feels

17:18

like it's real time. And you could do

17:20

that through radio frequencies. However,

17:22

if you're going to do data centers,

17:24

you're going to have to do it through

17:25

lasers. Now, there's a company that's a

17:28

super tiny startup. Uh, and you know,

17:31

check them out if you want, but they're

17:33

called Star Cloud. They're a small

17:35

little startup. I think they're a Y

17:36

Combinator startup. Anyway, they

17:39

actually deployed uh the first H100, the

17:43

strongest data center chip ever to make

17:45

it to space. They actually deployed it.

17:48

Uh, and so what they're like pitching is

17:50

that, hey, we want to be the first to

17:52

bring data centers to space. And they

17:55

have this little infographic which is

17:56

somewhat useful. If you look right here,

17:58

you can see that satellites can

18:02

optically be linked to each other. This

18:04

is a fancy way of saying with lasers,

18:06

you know, in on Earth, we use fiber

18:08

optic cables, which are these like

18:10

little glass flexible tubes essentially,

18:13

and light kind of refracts through them.

18:15

However, if you do it in space, it's

18:17

actually about 30% faster because you

18:19

don't have the friction of the

18:21

refraction in the glass fiber optic

18:23

cable. So it's kind of cool. So anyway,

18:25

you can do these space laser

18:27

communications between satellites really

18:30

rapidly. Uh and these data links can

18:32

then also be linked to stations on the

18:36

earth. Now users like you and I or

18:39

direct to cell communications are

18:41

usually done just through radio

18:42

frequencies like you know 5G or

18:45

whatever, right? That's fine because

18:47

we're not sending massive like pabytes

18:50

of data. But data centers, they're going

18:52

to want direct optical links to these

18:55

satellites. Problem is, you usually

18:58

can't do that through the clouds. So,

19:00

you got to be in places like Arizona or

19:02

Australia and have multiple different

19:03

places to do it. But, it can be done. It

19:06

turns out it's a lot easier to get data

19:08

to and from space than it is to get

19:10

energy to and from space. So, space data

19:13

centers could work. Now, another big

19:16

issue that you're going to have that we

19:17

don't have so much of here is what we

19:20

call shielding or radiation issues. Uh,

19:23

and so if you look at the uh the data

19:27

center play, the startup here, they've

19:29

got this little Y combinator video, and

19:31

this is kind of an example of a shielded

19:33

data center box that they want to throw

19:35

up into space. Uh, and it's cool, but

19:38

you can see there's a lot that goes into

19:41

actually making sure that we don't get

19:42

what's called bit flip because the last

19:44

thing you want is bitflip on AI and all

19:47

of a sudden your GPT is telling you

19:50

literally the wrong answers because of

19:53

space data center bit flips. So, you

19:56

need error correction, you need

19:58

radiation shielding, you need Optimus

20:00

robots who aren't going to die of

20:01

radiations like humans. It's a lot.

20:05

Okay, there's there's just a lot to

20:06

this. It's not as easy as let's just put

20:08

the data center in space. But the point

20:11

is SpaceX and Rocket Lab are kind of

20:15

like the delivery systems to get up into

20:18

space, right? So, it doesn't really

20:20

matter even who's doing the data

20:22

centers, whether Nvidia shipping up

20:24

their chips into space. I mean, gosh,

20:25

talk about a literal like moonshot or

20:28

this is all just like overhyped and a

20:30

big bubble. Who knows? But that's crazy.

20:34

Obviously, all the data center

20:35

valuations could collapse and we're not

20:37

going to put data centers in space for

20:38

50 years if we have a data center bust,

20:41

right? Like if the bubble pops, which I

20:43

think could happen if Sam Alman goes

20:44

bankrupt. If Sam Alman fails, his $1.4

20:47

trillion of commitments disappear, that

20:50

means Nvidia's guidance goes down. That

20:53

means AMD's guidance goes down, right?

20:55

Because the money that's going from

20:56

OpenAI to Nvidia is going from Nvidia

20:59

back into Open AI and then to AMD,

21:03

right?

21:03

>> [laughter]

21:05

>> It's and it's going to or it's it's just

21:07

a mess. Okay, so like could the whole

21:10

thing pop and blow up? Yes. Is it a

21:13

massive bubble? Probably. Do data

21:15

centers in space seem cool? Yes. Do

21:17

space janitors seem like the dopest

21:21

ever? Hell yeah, dude. Like I'm so

21:24

jazzed because like our VC is in on this

21:27

and I'm just like let's freaking go,

21:30

dude. We, my venture capital company

21:32

invested in two companies, SpaceX and

21:35

Aptronic. And SpaceX is like a 4X and

21:37

Aptronic, I mean, if they actually are

21:39

raising at a $5 billion valuation, is

21:42

probably like a 6x. And I'm like, okay,

21:46

all right. When do we go ring the bell?

21:48

This is great. Now, all we have to do is

21:50

make sure I can IPO Houseack for a big

21:52

dollar and we're good. Then we can

21:54

retire. I'm just kidding. I don't think

21:55

I could ever retire, [laughter]

21:57

but I'm too excited about the stuff. So,

21:59

like, okay, we got to talk Echoar and

22:01

Rocket Lab. Yes, all of this crap could

22:04

be a giant bubble, but there is probably

22:07

a future to this. I just want you to

22:08

know that as excited as I am right now,

22:10

don't confuse that excitement for, oh,

22:13

this is going to be easy. It ain't,

22:15

okay? Like, who what what happens when

22:18

we start crowding the Terminator zone,

22:20

okay? And we can't all be in that same

22:22

ring, right? Do we just go further and

22:24

further out? But if we go further and

22:25

further out, like are people blocking

22:27

the optical lasers of others? I don't

22:30

know. Should be enough room for now,

22:33

right? And then like who gets the

22:35

terminator zone? China or the United

22:37

States

22:39

or both of us for now until we start

22:41

blocking each other? Can we like can I

22:43

pass you my laser and then can you beam

22:45

that to Earth or are you going to

22:47

intercept my laser and like, you know,

22:49

bit flip me? Don't bit flip my Bitcoin.

22:53

Anyway, all right. So, that cooling

22:56

radiation a lot. All right. But now we

22:59

got to talk Echoar and Rocket Lab. So,

23:02

Echoar is like literally moonshotting on

23:04

this. Uh, that's the ticker symbol SATS.

23:07

Now, this is basically the merger of

23:10

Dish Network. Dish Network was public in

23:12

2024. People lost like all their money

23:14

investing in Dish Network. It's a crappy

23:16

business. But over the last year, this

23:18

company's up like 300%. Uh, and in the

23:20

past 5 years, it's up like 336%. It

23:23

basically just moonshotted in about

23:26

August. And part of that is because they

23:30

sold like $17 billion of their Airwave

23:34

licenses to SpaceX.

23:37

Now, why that's really interesting is

23:40

when they sold these licenses to SpaceX

23:43

to deal with like FCC bull crap or

23:45

whatever, they actually ended up taking

23:48

an $8 billion stake in SpaceX.

23:53

So, think about that for a moment. They

23:55

sold $17 billion of licenses. They took

23:57

$8.5 billion of cash, about $8.5 billion

24:00

of SpaceX stock. Okay, that was before

24:03

they talked about this $800 million

24:05

funding round that SpaceX is doing now

24:07

for employees as a secondary

24:09

and it's certainly before the $ 1.5

24:11

trillion

24:13

IPO potential for SpaceX in 2026. So

24:17

people are like, "Oh my gosh, this $27

24:20

billion company, uh, even if it had $

24:23

8.5 billion worth of SpaceX stock today,

24:26

divided by 27, 31 cents out of every

24:30

dollar that goes into Echoar is

24:32

basically SpaceX stock at whatever

24:36

valuation they got back on September

24:39

8th, 2025.

24:41

Now, if that valuation is up 50%."

24:45

Imagine this. Okay, let's say the

24:47

valuation of $8.5 billion is up 50%.

24:50

Times 1.5. That means the SpaceX stock

24:53

they own is 12.7 billion. Let's call it

24:56

$13 billion. Okay, $13 billion is almost

25:00

half of this company, which means about

25:02

50% of every dollar that goes into

25:04

Echoar is essentially SpaceX. So Echoar

25:07

to some degree, it's a crap business,

25:10

but it's almost a proxy for owning

25:13

SpaceX. I mean, look at this. They took

25:16

a massive impairment on their licenses

25:18

over here in the three quarters uh

25:21

ending or 3 months ending September

25:22

30th. Even if you add the impairment

25:25

back in, these people would still be

25:27

losing money. Now, yes, they have some

25:30

cash flow. Their balance sheet isn't

25:32

that horrible. Their positive cash flow,

25:34

they paid off some debt. Uh, if I go to

25:38

their current assets, I've got current

25:40

liabilities of $9.9 billion and I've got

25:44

total current assets of six. So, I'm

25:46

definitely upside down. It could be

25:48

worse, but they they needed the money.

25:52

Okay, they needed the $8.5 billion from

25:54

SpaceX. If I add that back in here,

25:56

great. Now I can pay my current

25:58

liabilities. Okay, good. Now it makes

26:01

sense. But then how much of Echoar did

26:04

you just gut? Because remember, Echoar

26:06

is a a company that has 5.68

26:10

million Dish TV subscribers. They got

26:12

like two million Sling subscribers, but

26:14

they also do Boost Mobile.

26:17

Heard about them? They have some

26:18

partnerships with AT&T and T-Mobile, but

26:20

they've got about 7 million subscribers

26:21

at Boost Mobile. They used to own like

26:24

$30 billion in wireless spectrum

26:26

licenses, but they just sold a bunch to

26:28

uh Starlink or SpaceX. And they also had

26:31

some satellites called the Jupiter 3 or

26:35

Echoar XXIV satellites in space through

26:38

their Hughes division, but they had to

26:40

file Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

26:43

So like there's risk in the space and

26:45

Echoar isn't clean by any means. Now

26:48

they're cleaner now because they got

26:50

cash and SpaceX stock, right? So it got

26:52

cleaned up a whole lot. makes sense why

26:55

people are like, "Bro, Echoar is like a

26:57

discount way to get your hands on

27:00

Starlink. I mean, frankly, if if they

27:02

got $ 8.5 billion of SpaceX stock and

27:07

it's going to IPO for $1.5 trillion,

27:09

that's probably a double, okay, times

27:12

two, that's 17 out of the $27 billion

27:15

valuation they have. That's like 63% of

27:17

every dollar that you invest in SATs is

27:19

going into SpaceX essentially, right,

27:21

through their ownership of it. Now they

27:22

could squander it. I mean the whole

27:24

company could go bankrupt. The other

27:25

parts of their business could go

27:26

bankrupt. So obviously there's risk,

27:29

right? Then you got Rocket Lab. Okay.

27:33

Rocket Lab at least it's selling for

27:36

52.6 times less than SpaceX. Yeah. Take

27:42

SpaceX's $ 1.5 trillion potential IPO

27:45

valuation divided by 52.6

27:48

and you get Rocket Lab. Now, Rocket

27:51

Lab's founder really likes big logos,

27:54

>> and that was one, uh, everything that

27:56

goes to space should have a Rocket Lab

27:58

logo on it. Um, don't care if we built

28:00

it, don't care if we launched it, but

28:02

everything that goes to space should

28:03

have a Rocket Lab logo on it. Preferably

28:05

the biggest logo that you can fit on the

28:06

component.

28:07

>> I don't know why any of that mattered,

28:09

but let's just take a quick look at

28:11

their financials. So, Rocket Lab not

28:14

only manufactures

28:16

cell solar cells, which is kind of cool.

28:18

So, it's like solar solar cells. So,

28:21

solar solar panels, I guess. Solar

28:23

panels made for space. Anyway, that's

28:26

kind of cool. The CEO calls themselves

28:28

the largest solar panel manufacturer for

28:30

space, which I, you know, I haven't

28:32

independently verified, but I guess I'll

28:34

believe it. Uh, and um, honestly,

28:36

they're not in a terrible financial

28:38

position. Uh, they do have negative cash

28:41

flow. They're they are a rocket startup.

28:43

Uh, so they do burn $67 million per

28:45

quarter, but they just issued nearly a

28:47

billion, well like $865 billion plus

28:50

some other stuff in shares to raise

28:53

cash. And they borrowed about $26

28:55

million, which is a drop in the bucket

28:57

compared to their share sale. But if you

28:58

look at their balance sheet, they've got

29:00

almost a billion dollars in marketables

29:02

and cash, which, you know, if we're

29:04

burning 67

29:07

uh every uh what do we got here? 67 per

29:09

quarter and I got a,000 divided by 67 I

29:13

got divided by 4 I got like 3.7 years of

29:16

cash burn. You know now they might

29:18

amplify their cash burn but anyway they

29:20

do have 50% revenue growth which is

29:22

great and they're showing a 36.7% gross

29:25

margin but a lot of that is because of

29:27

contract milestones. You'll see some of

29:29

that with Apple and MP material as well.

29:32

But it's kind of interesting because

29:33

they should be profitable by the end of

29:34

the decade. And if they are, they would

29:37

be selling with a multiple of about 106.

29:41

So it's going to kind of depend on like

29:43

what their EPS growth rate is. But this

29:45

will make them very market sensitive.

29:46

Like this is why SpaceX says they don't

29:48

want to go public in bad market

29:50

conditions because a company like Rocket

29:52

Lab, for example, is going to be very

29:54

dependent on raising money. So you could

29:55

throw more money into space data centers

29:58

or rockets or whatever. You're literally

30:01

lighting the money on fire with the goal

30:03

of making more money. Okay, this makes

30:06

sense.

30:08

SpaceX, they called themselves

30:09

profitable. Uh let's say they had $18

30:12

billion of annual recurring revenue in

30:14

26. That's low. The um Bloomberg thinks

30:18

this is actually going to be somewhere

30:20

between 22 to 24 bill is the uh

30:23

Bloomberg estimate. So my numbers are

30:25

probably a little bit low. Uh but if I

30:27

just divide 1,500 then divided by call

30:30

it 23 at the midpoint there we're

30:32

trading for about 65 times sales. If

30:35

they bring 20% uh to the bottom line

30:39

that would be about uh let's see here in

30:42

this case if I if I take the whole top

30:44

line of sales uh let's get rid of this

30:47

here uh screwed this up a little bit.

30:49

There we go. So if I take 20% of their

30:52

annual recurring revenue and bring it to

30:54

the bottom line, 23 time.2 that puts me

30:57

at about $4.6 billion net roughly, which

31:01

is great. But if you divide 1,500 by

31:05

4.6, you're going to be at about a 326

31:08

PE ratio, which for 2026 is going to be

31:11

about three times as expensive as Rocket

31:14

Labs 2029 valuation. In other words,

31:18

both of these companies are going to

31:19

tank like a rocket of recession. Like

31:21

these are literal money burners. And if

31:23

we don't actually do data centers in

31:25

space anytime soon and it takes 50

31:26

years, you're going to lose a lot of

31:28

money on them.

31:30

But I could not be more excited about

31:33

the future when I hear this stuff

31:35

because it all it makes sense. It all

31:38

makes total sense to me. There are so

31:41

many problems

31:43

and I will just say while this is very

31:46

exciting technology and I couldn't be

31:48

more grateful that we invested into

31:50

SpaceX, I just hope we can make it to

31:53

SpaceX's IPO without a recession. In the

31:57

meantime, I will continue buying fixer

32:00

uppers and doing our renovation AI

32:03

because we want to use my knowledge in

32:06

real estate and help other people do

32:08

artificial intelligence. renovations for

32:11

their homes. In other words, you take a

32:13

picture of your home and we tell you

32:15

what is actually going to give you net

32:17

worth in renovating your home. Or if you

32:20

buy a fixer upper or you're looking for

32:21

a fixer upper, we can guide you over

32:24

time as we release features in 2026. You

32:26

know, what you get now versus what you

32:28

get in 26. That's all these things are

32:30

still being built. Uh our core features

32:33

coming out this month are done. Uh but

32:35

there's a lot more coming in 2026. But

32:38

one of the things that I'm really

32:39

excited about is basically screening

32:42

properties that are on the market and

32:44

saying to folks, hey, if you buy this

32:46

property and spend 50 grand fixing it

32:47

up, there's a chance you could boost

32:49

your net worth by $100,000. Now all of a

32:52

sudden, people can actually rate

32:53

properties based on their ROI that they

32:56

could potentially get rather than just

32:58

guessing. They have an AI tool that

33:01

myself and our team trained to bring you

33:05

AI in real estate, which is kind of

33:07

cool. And if you want to invest in that,

33:10

the cool thing is we have no bank debt.

33:12

We are real estatebacked, which is

33:15

great. You could see a lot of our real

33:17

estate under our real estate tab, but

33:19

you can also click the invest and

33:20

reinvest button. Uh reinvest house hack,

33:22

same company. It's just a different

33:24

name. I'm changing it to reinvest. I

33:25

think it's pretty awesome. See, real

33:27

estate invest. Huh? See what I did

33:28

there? Reinvest the proceeds. Keep

33:31

reinvesting profits into real estate.

33:33

Anyway, read the offering circular.

33:35

There's risk with every investment.

33:36

Right now, our current round is based on

33:38

our 2024 valuation, which means if you

33:41

invest, uh, you are investing based off

33:44

of the valuation. I think it's this

33:45

button. Yeah, you're investing based off

33:47

the valuation we had in August of 2024.

33:50

You get a 5% yield paid on a monthly

33:52

basis. So, 5% annual, paid monthly. Uh,

33:55

and [music] it's a convertible, which

33:56

means you get downside protection and

33:58

all of the upside uh, if our valuation

34:01

goes up from this level. Uh, read the

34:03

offering circular. Earliest conversion

34:05

is Jan 27. And folks, couldn't be more

34:08

excited. I don't really think we're

34:10

ready for the future, but I'm excited

34:13

about it. So, with that said, thank you

34:15

very much for watching and we'll see you

34:17

in the next video. Goodbye. Godspeed.

34:20

And good luck. Why not advertise these

34:22

things that you told us here? I feel

34:23

like nobody else knows about this.

34:24

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

34:26

see how it goes.

34:27

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

34:28

much. People love you. People look up to

34:30

you.

34:30

>> Kevin Praat there, financial [music]

34:32

analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always

34:34

great to get your take.

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