Crypto & Bitcoin are About to Flip.

hey everyone kevin here there are some

big changes on the horizon for crypto

and bitcoin and a lot of this has to do

in my opinion with

the coming of a bitcoin and crypto etf

this is going to be huge for bitcoin and

crypto and in this video we're going to

break down the pros

the cons time frames and potential price

action when we finally get a bitcoin and

crypto etf

but first we got to start at the bottom

and that's not realizing that we've been

trying to get a crypto or bitcoin etf

since 2013 the sec has been delaying or

denying applications ever since

when the winklevoss twins first

submitted for a bitcoin etf

in 2013 and just this year the sec said

oh yeah maybe we'll approve you in april

oh no no

never mind we'll delay that we'll deal

with it on june 17th and then just hours

before the june 17th deadline in 2021

the sec says yeah we need some more

public comments on the potential for

market manipulation and thus we have yet

another delay for the bitcoin or crypto

etfs but folks we've got a lot to

understand a lot to unpackage here

regarding why we even need one

pros cons and all that so let's get

right into it but first let's break down

some of the fundamentals the easiest way

to do this is by starting with

some evidence from bloomberg

intelligence bloomberg intelligence was

asked what is more likely in 2021

100 000 for the price of bitcoin or 20

000

for the price of bitcoin and so to help

answer this question they looked at the

growth in the average annual price of

bitcoin which is this

pinkish line here which we can see the

growth in the annual price of bitcoin

has regularly been going up

this is obviously on a logarithmic scale

so that way we can actually see this

trend on a chart here and it's not just

a

parabolic move up but what we're also

going to be able to do

is compare the volatility of bitcoin on

a 260 day average

over the volatility the s p 500 and so

anytime you get these peaks these are

massive periods of volatility

over and above volatility in the s p 500

and what we're noticing is

more and more specifically here in 2019

and 2020 to 21

we're noticing that the volatility of

bitcoin is much

closer to the volatility of the s p 500

the closer this ratio is to zero the

less

volatile crypto is compared to

the s p 500 and this is where bloomberg

actually goes as far as saying

we might see a transition from gold to

bitcoin much like we saw a transition

from horses to cars from slow and old

technology

to better and faster technology that's

able to serve the same purpose

getting us from point a to point b or

being a store of value or transacting

with currency or whatever it may be now

what's interesting is

since the inception of the bloomberg

galaxy crypto index in august of 2017

which tracks cryptos at a rate of 30

bitcoin 30

ethereum 18.5 xrp 9.3

bitcoin cash 6.6 litecoin and so on

they track the prices of crypto and what

they did

recently is they compared wait a minute

if we just

invested 20 of our money that we would

ordinarily put

into metals like a bloomberg all metals

index

which is kind of like you know it's got

gold in there obviously right so if we

just took

20 of the money that we would ordinarily

put into metals

into the bloomberg galaxy crypto index

how would our returns

have performed and bloomberg found that

with just 20 percent of cryptos

in a normal metal fund

the new combined index

would actually outperform the nasdaq 100

and do so with lower volatility as long

as you are rebalancing quarterly in this

example

they found that you would be up 170

percent

versus closer to 140 percent for the

nasdaq now let that sink in for a moment

what they're saying is you could have

invested in some of the biggest tech

companies over the last four years the

biggest 100

or you could have just put 80 of your

money into the bloomberg all metals

index

and just had 20 of your money in crypto

and you would have

outperformed the nasdaq 100 so really

there's an argument

that you have a bigger risk not

investing in cryptocurrency

then you do have a risk of losing your

money investing in cryptocurrencies

now that's obviously very exciting for

the crypto community but it's really

amazing because it's a sentiment that's

spreading through wall street

and it also makes sense because when we

start looking at populations we see that

more and more people

are starting to feel more and more

comfortable with cryptocurrencies

for example the financial times just did

some research and found

that 2.3 million people in the united

kingdom now hold some form of crypto

assets

that's up 25 from just last year

and only 38 of crypto users actually

think

cryptocurrencies are a gamble that is

down

from almost half at 47 last year

so you're starting to see some major

transitions in cryptocurrency

fundamentals

and this starts becoming really

important especially when we start

talking about

a crypto etf we're also more recently

starting to see crypto hodlers finally

buy and pick up

more and more crypto and this is the

first time we started seeing more and

more crypto being bought

by bitcoin toddlers since october

we've seen net changes to the downside

in crypto

and just recently here in june

2021 we've actually finally started

seeing

a positive reading of bitcoin handlers

adding to their positions with some of

the recent price drops we have

the hodlers in other words are buying

the dip

okay but now folks let's understand that

crypto is becoming more adopted

wall street bloomberg is starting to

look at

crypto as a potential mix in with

gold because the returns are amazing

and even if a small portion of your

portfolio evaporated because

accidentally some coin you bought just

didn't do well

you'd still be better off having a

balance of crypto or variety or

diversity of crypto

than not and that's something that a

crypto etf can provide you

but a lot of folks still wonder kevin i

can just go

buy bitcoin you could even and i don't

recommend this but

you could even swipe up on robinhood and

get bitcoin or at least

the appearance of bitcoin obviously it's

much easier to have a wallet or platform

and go buy your bitcoin there because

then you could transfer it you can

transact with it

obviously all the benefits that come

with something like a meta mask or block

file whatever

so why then do we need a bitcoin etf

or a crypto etf let's talk about

six big benefits and then we'll get to

some cons because there are some

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millionaire all right folks number one

reason

why having a crypto or bitcoin etf

is so functional is because number one

it makes

buying easier an exchange eliminates the

complexity of having to

pick a brokerage and simplifies the

process for people who might not be

informed in terms of how to best buy

cryptocurrency it's kind of like a

gateway for regular people who aren't

super knowledgeable about crypto to get

into crypto

think about this if you already have a

fidelity account or you already have a

retirement account at td ameritrade or

schwab whatever then it'd be nice to

just type in

btc and click buy and get some kind of

exchange traded fund that basically

tracks the price

of bitcoin that's wonderful that's

awesome it makes it way easier

now you could also go to like

metkevin.combf and

block file give you up to 250 dollars

when you sign up for a brokerage account

with them so that you can buy your

cryptocurrencies there

met kevin.com bf they'll give you up to

250 totally for free if you sign up

depending on how much money you deposit

over there but folks think about it

it's so much easier to just use the

existing brokerage you have so that's

the

number one reason we have four crypto

etfs and

a bitcoin etf being a really good idea

the second benefit is generally

people feel somewhat confused in terms

of

how to safely store their cryptocurrency

with an etf the financial company takes

liability for this

they can store your bitcoin in cold

storage

they could ensure that bitcoin or crypto

is safe

there are a lot of things that they can

do to make sure that

on scale your cryptocurrency is safe

now some of you watching this videos

video might be thinking kevin it's easy

to

to store my crypto like i can print out

the codes for my bitcoin and then i'm

good

that's fine but for most people most

people are intimidated

by the idea of okay hot storage versus

cold storage okay so one means you're

online one means you're not

and i'm supposed to put all my money on

a code and

store that but what if i lose that

because there's an earthquake or a fire

or something

there's a lot and so the even though

it might sound simple for us for the

vast majority of people

who first hear about cryptocurrency they

get concerned about safety

having an etf removes that concern

for those people number three it also

simplifies

tax calculations you know buy and sell

and you make a profit or a gain it's

potentially a lot easier

for you to through your existing

brokerage report your taxes

your gains and your losses number four

the

and this is one of the big ones you

could potentially see an inflow

a massive inflow of money and a dramatic

price increase

for bitcoin we saw billions of dollars

flood into canada's first

bitcoin etf when it was first approved

we just need an american version of that

the fifth neat thing is if you have an

etf you can also

easily for everyone have options trading

and

simplified short selling now i'm not a

big fan of short selling

but i will say it'd be nice to be able

to swipe up

on robinhood and get myself some options

on crypto

and if that meant i could swipe up and

get some calls on bitcoin

be something i'd be looking at doing

right now anyway

uh and no guarantees don't don't do what

i say because if you lose money it's

ultimately your fault but anyway

just the thought i had that's it not

financial advice

number six having a crypto etf would

allow people to buy crypto

with margin at any brokerage now i

understand

that you can already use margin at some

brokerages to buy crypto

i understand there are risks and

downsides to this but it's not

ubiquitously available

i can't log into jpmorgan where i have a

seven million dollar credit line

and just go hey guys i want to buy some

btc it's gonna be no

you gotta wire it and there are wire

limits in terms of how much you can wire

per day yourself

oh you're sending it to a crypto

brokerages oh well okay we're gonna have

to review this

it's a pain in the frickin butt so these

are things to consider

when we're thinking wait a minute you

know i mean it would actually be kind of

nice to have a crypto etf now there are

some downsides

and we're going to touch on those

because well

you can't have positives without talking

about the downsides now the biggest

downside of using an etf is that

well if you buy cryptocurrency in an etf

you're not able to use it as a currency

you don't actually own the coin you

don't have the private key

because you've got the convenience but

you just own shares of a fund you don't

actually own

the coins themselves so you now lose the

functional ability of being able to

transact with crypto

and you can't vote in any kind of rule

changing forks

in that cryptocurrency this also

potentially leads to the consolidation

of power

to larger brokerages that create these

funds i mean imagine

if vanguard has a swipe up for the btcv

or whatever like bitcoin vanguard etf

and all of a sudden vanguard has all of

our votes

they have a whole lot more power in

voting

on our behalf because we've put our

money into their fund

and they have the votes and we don't so

these are some pros and cons to consider

but right now we also have to consider

are we actually going to see a crypto or

bitcoin etf

so we already know that the decision

that was supposed to come here in june

has been delayed again the sec wants

more information

but the good news is this doesn't mean

that it's not going to happen

we actually have a lot of signals that

are very positive for

a bitcoin or crypto etf coming first

it's helpful to know that gary gensler

the chairperson of the sec the security

and exchange commission

is somebody who's actually well known in

the blockchain community

and he's an advocate of digital assets

he previously taught a class at

mit on blockchain technologies and

kathy wood said in january that she

doesn't believe we will see a bitcoin

etf until its market cap hits

two trillion dollars that would put

bitcoin somewhere around a hundred ten

thousand dollars

but recently she's been revising her

opinion saying you know what it can

actually come

way before two trillion dollars so more

and more

we're seeing folks start revising their

estimates to indicate that

probably by the end of 2021 or sometime

in 2022

we should expect a bitcoin and crypto

etf

so for me i'm kind of marking the

calendar for december on

and then through 2022 to expect some

kind of crypto etf

now what do we think is going to happen

between now and then and what happens

when we actually have

a crypto etf but before we talk about

having a crypto etf

we got to touch on the death cross

because we've got some potential

problems

in the short term that we got to get

over all right folks here's a bitcoin

and take a look at some of these

technicals

the death cross is when the 50-day

moving average

crosses the 200-day moving average and

look at this folks

it's literally about to happen now

the death cross is usually an indicator

of a price

crash coming in fact previously when

this has happened

in 2014 and 2017 and in 2019

after a death cross we literally saw

bitcoin drop anywhere between

55 and 71 after a death cross

now we don't actually expect bitcoin to

fall that much this time

because we've got some pretty strong

support levels beneath this death cross

and where we sit now right now the price

of bitcoin

is sitting at thirty five thousand eight

hundred and thirty five dollars at the

time of this recording

we do believe that we have support

levels at about thirty two thousand

dollars

and another one about nineteen thousand

eight 800. however

after that we start zooming down closer

to about the ten thousand dollar levels

and i don't even have a line drawn that

low so hopefully we don't see any kind

of madness like this

but we have also had folks like michael

bury

predict the large correction coming to

cryptocurrencies

specifically because of high leverage

but now why would i be bringing up the

death cross in this video

well because like it or not technical

traders watch the death cross

if the death cross happens and we end up

falling to a lower level of support

we could potentially end up seeing

volatility in the short term

skyrocket but in the long term if we

stabilize

at either that 32k level or around that

20 000 level

and then slowly work our way back those

could end up being ideal moments

for a crypto etf because it would mean

that we hit a

very very bearish technical and

bitcoin didn't evaporate bitcoin as

usual

survives again it as usual prevails

again and that's what we expect to

happen we expect if there is any kind of

fall in the prices of crypto

that crypto will slowly climb its way

back up

and that slow ascent could be the

perfect time to start

a crypto etf now another thing that's

neat about the crypto etf

uh whether it's a crypto etf or bitcoin

etf is that we might also see things

like

an ethereum etf we've already had

ethereum etfs filed for

another thing this could paint a perfect

opportunity for is the creation

of multifaceted etfs where we have an

ethereum etf

a bitcoin etf or an etf that has a mix

of ethereum and bitcoin and other coins

which

actually provides more liquidity and

potential more of a

price positive or positive price action

push

for those other coins we have already

started seeing

some amazing price action in ethereum

for example

and this could be accelerated by an etf

which is very good for ethereum consider

this when we

overlay the bitcoin market cap with the

ethereum market cap as a percentage of

total market share of the crypto markets

we see that

bitcoin's total percentage has actually

fallen

while ethereum the whiteline's total

percentage has risen

ethereum's percentage going as high as

about

23 and bitcoin's percentage of market

cap

going from a high of almost 80 percent

of the market

to right now sitting around 42

of the market and in my opinion crypto

etfs will just help accelerate these

trends of giving more power

to more versatile cryptocurrencies i

think

a crypto etf and bitcoin etf are going

to be phenomenal

both for bitcoin for ethereum and for

other coins this is wonderful

however we do have another risk another

risk is the fact that we know pretty

openly that celebrities are getting paid

big dollars for promoting random alt

coins like consider kim kardashian who

was paid to promote ethereum max on her

instagram

or floyd mayweather who promoted

ethereum max or

other influencers who took sponsorships

from gemini

now it's totally possible that these are

just straight legitimate

sponsorships but one of the risks is

there are a lot of people who know

nothing about cryptocurrency and this is

a double-sided risk

today people might not know anything

about cryptocurrencies

but see ethereum max be intrigued but

then find it too complicated to invest

or invest in something they're clueless

about and then lose money which might

jade them against the entire crypto

market

whereas if we had crypto etfs it's

entirely possible that people could buy

a crypto etf that maybe

includes one of these sponsored coins

like maybe there's a crypto etf that

includes ethereum max

but it also gives you a bigger exposure

to bitcoin and ethereum

and a smaller exposure to something like

ethereum x now this is no slam on

aetherium max i've got no qualms

and i've got no commentary on this other

than to say that crypto etfs will

probably make it a lot easier

for many different folks to get involved

in cryptocurrencies and to me a crypto

etf

is exactly the kind of mass market

catalyst that we need

to push crypto to the next level that is

big prices rocket ship to the moon no

guarantees could end up being temporary

but honestly i think this is exactly

what we need now of course there are

endless other issues to deal with

such as el salvador and the world bank

and the imf being concerned about crypto

regulation being concerned about crime

the by mining ban of cryptocurrencies in

china

we've got hedge funds looking at

cryptocurrency more

as an offset to gold we've got hedge

funds

shorting crypto currencies because

lately well it's been making money

and we've got a death cross on the

calendar to me

we have a ton of fun between now

and big potential for crypto but

in my opinion my time frame for crypto

is

starting at the end of this year i'm

getting really excited

for 2022 for crypto and i'm looking

at this death cross on the daily basis

because if i see an opportunity here to

dive in

i'm gonna take my opportunity i'm gonna

go pick up some coin because i think

over the next few years

we're gonna see an explosion in

valuations

thanks to these etfs there's a lot of

crap between here and there

but i'm really excited about tracking

all of this and if you found this

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you thanks so much for watching and

we'll see

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