holy moly Trump | *BIG DETAILS* EU Trade Deal!

Well, a Trump trade deal has been

announced with the European Union. In

this, I'm going to give you details not

just from Trump, but what the European

Commission just said, which is going to

give us more details into exactly what

was negotiated, which is quite useful.

Now, forgive me. I'm recording from the

gym slashtheboard studio. So, we're

going to throw this together quickly

because it is breaking news. And after

coming back from a run, I'm like, whoa,

that was fast. All right. So, I'm going

to start from the bottom up because

you're going to get the most unique

information here first. So the uh the

energy deal that Donald Trump talked

about that there is going to be a $750

billion purchase of US energy that was

inspired because the European Union says

they want Russian energy out. Now they

could just be signaling that because

they've been saying that forever. So

that could just be sort of a cover for

what's going on. But the agreement

apparently is to purchase $750 billion

of US energy over the next three years.

Now, this is critical because frankly,

as an investor, I'm kind of tired of

hearing about all these like $500

billion commitments from Apple to start

investing in America or more than they

have been investing. Uh, and I look,

okay, that's that's 100% of their free

cash flow for the next, you know, four

years, but okay, where are the actual

investments? And when you look, most of

the investments are really just kind of

getting kicked down the road. It's

almost like they're being announced to

gain favor in the Trump administration.

and then we'll see when we make the

investments. Right? This is a little

unique. It's actually better. It

indicates that there will be $250

billion of purchases from the EU uh for

US energy per year over the next 3

years. Uh so uh then I became sort of

like inquisitive about this a little bit

and it turns out in 2023 the United

States already became the largest

supplier of liqufied natural gas for the

European Union accounting for nearly

half of their already uh liqufied

natural gas uh uh sort of imports beyond

uh their their production. Uh the price

of this varies because the price of LG

fluctuates a lot. But LG exports to the

EU, we're only about 13 billion dollars

in 2024.

So when we look at total energy export

exports, we're going to have to start

including not just liqufied natural gas,

but also oil. Now in 2023, the European

uh Union imported 57 billion of oil from

the United States. But now if you

combine these together, you could see

what this trade deal is really

demanding. We're going to be going from

$70 billion, so LG and oil combined to

$250 billion per year. Now, the

president of the European Commission

says the details of this are still to,

you know, to be determined in terms of

how they actually pull this off, but

that is actually pretty impressive. So,

you got to give Trump credit here.

That's impressive because what you're

really doing is you're three and a

halfxing

your exports of US energy to Europe.

Now, this is kind of also a way to like

give a middle finger to OPEC plus uh and

this is by design, right? We want to

incentivize our American oil producers

to open more wells. And what we've seen

over the last couple years is well

counts have actually been plummeting

because there is so much supply and the

price of oil has been falling. But if we

can guarantee more US or WTI blend

purchases through these trade deals as

opposed to the European Union going to

OPEC plus it might give a premium to a

US barrel basically leading to more

production in the United States. So you

got to give credit. I mean that sounds

good. All of these things so far sound

good. Uh the European Commissioner says

today we are at a tariff rate of 27.5%

on autos. That's 25 plus 2 and a half.

That gets down to 15% via this new sort

of blanket tariff rate. Now what's

interesting is the European Union

actually negotiated. They're one of the

first to do this. They they negotiated

in sectoral tariffs. They said, "We're

only going to do this 15% flat rate if

you include semiconductors and

pharmaceuticals," which Trump as of two

hours ago said would not be included and

then did end up including them. Maybe

those were part of the three or four

sort of leftover items to be negotiated

there. Now, that's a big deal because

it's really the first country to fully

incorporate sectoral tariffs. In my

video this morning, we talked about how

Japan is like, you know, Trump's

announcing that Japan's going to invest

$550 billion into US uh corporations or

projects. And Japan's like, wait, what?

Only if it makes sense. Like, we didn't

sort of pitch it like that. So,

obviously, the devil's always in the

details of all of this. And of course,

each side is going to want to come

across as, oh, we just made the greatest

deal ever. I mean, that's literally what

the EU is doing. They're like, oh, u,

you know, hey, uh, this is the largest

deal that that we've ever done. Uh so

sorry about that. Uh so what what you

really find is uh you know everybody's

wanting to brag about how good these

things are. But you also see the

frustration in the EU commissioner's

commentary because in the press

conference she's like well you know we

did the best we could. We couldn't get

any lower, but we don't want to go to

30% tariffs on everything because then

autos would go from 27 and a half to 30,

but everything else would go from 10 to

30, which would be remarkable, or in

many cases 20 to 30. So, it' be a large

step up. So, 15 is better. That doesn't

still mean that there won't be tariff

impacts. Hopefully, I phrased that

correctly. Basically, tariff impacts

could obviously still occur. they might

just take, you know, 6 months to a year

to actually fully hit us, especially

since Chinese uh tariffs at 55% were are

likely this week to just get kicked down

the road another 90 days before we

finalize a real deal with China. Uh so

now Donald Trump is also pitching that

the European Union will make $600

billion in more investments in the

United States. We're unclear if this is

very similar to sort of just a Japan

deal. Uh but we do also hear that the

Europeans are are saying, "Hey, like

this is good because it also gives us

access to not only the US market but

potentially Mexico. So it's better to

have this deal than nothing. Obviously,

it's still going to hurt some people."

Even the EU commissioner acknowledged

this like these tariffs will affect

people like companies like there will be

problems associated with this, but this

is better than the alternative scenario

which is no deal and then even higher

tariffs, right? Uh she also talks about

on steel and aluminum there's still work

to be done here but they face a common

external challenge. Without saying it,

she's basically referring to China,

which is interesting because Europe, the

European Union and China have been

cozying up together, but there's been

murmuring about like maybe them not

being able to get along as well as they

had originally thought during Trump

liberation time. Maybe that also helped

motivate a deal with Donald Trump here.

There won't be any stacking on top of

this 15% deal. This is a quote clear

ceiling. will include cars, pharma,

chips, almost everything. Uh, and there

will be zero tariffs on the following uh

aircraft component parts, certain

chemicals, certain generic

pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor

equipment. In this case, you should

really be thinking about uh like maybe

some of your seammen's products for

lasers or even like ASML chip uh

equipment manufacturing machines. Okay,

that's that's a big word. And we've done

so much analysis with course members and

the course member live streams on ASML.

Uh it's it's really a unique company. It

drives the innovation in chip

manufacturing across the entire world

because they're basically the machine

that makes, you know, the chips, the the

the wafer products. They produce the

machines and they're from the

Netherlands. And so it looks like there

won't be any tariffs on ASML products,

which is huge. Like when we talk about

this in the course member live stream

tomorrow, we really need to analyze and

look for what this tactically could mean

for certain individual names exposed

previously to tariffs and now

potentially no longer. Uh agricultural

products again aircraft components both

sides and uh what we also have would be

a critical raw minerals on both sides.

So uh they do mention that they're going

to keep working on deals here. We'll see

how it goes. Remember, you've still got

another four or five days here before

August 1st. And uh at the end of the

month, we'll also have the expiration of

the quote release the files coupon. We

might be getting rid of the lifetime

access, but we are definitely going to

raise the price. So, if you want to get

in before that coupon expires, use

coupon code release the files at

mekevin.com. I'm going to get back to

training for the marathon. By the way,

if you have not yet seen, I also put out

a job posting. Uh, I'll pin it to my

profile on E. Actually, it's my mo most

recent post on uh X, but if you want to

see it, it's my most recent post on X.

And uh, yeah, check it out. Thanks. Bye.