The Coming, Disastrous War w/ China & Taiwan - Closer than Feared

I discovered this really remarkable

piece on Taiwan that I've got to share

with you because it is kind of scary and

I didn't think about this

I've regularly been one of those folks

here on the channel just full

transparently fully transparent that's

been thinking I don't think China is

going to invade Taiwan because their

economy is in the doldrums they're

talking about more stimulus now finally

yesterday they're signaling more

stimulus everybody's like please try to

stimulate we're gonna turn into Japan

people are freaking out about the

Chinese economy there's some people that

are like why did this is it and there

are other people like no they're going

to turn into Japan all the smart people

leave all the rich people leave you know

it's a problem

stay away from China so you have a lot

of noise around China

and all this noise around China

especially the economic problems have

left me somewhat convinced that China

would not be so stupid to invade Taiwan

as much as China's uh you know policy is

that they really want to turn Taiwan

into like a Macau or a Hong Kong which

are CCP controlled but autonomous region

so it's kind of like you're your own

place but we still own you

so what's this piece that I just

discovered that potentially throws this

idea on its head that China

won't try something really aggressive

with Taiwan well it's this

it's that it's a Wall Street Journal

piece discussing that taiwan's biggest

national security threat is not actually

an invasion of Taiwan it's actually

that 97 of its energy is transported

to Taiwan

rather than

created

on the island of Taiwan

now that's a little scary why is that

scary well it's scary because China has

regularly been thought

to

desire blockading

access to Taiwan and the way you could

do that is if you just look at the map

because you've got China

right here Taiwan right here

if China blockades not just the Strait

of Taiwan but potentially all the way

around Taiwan notice the more populous

era or side by the way is on the Chinese

side

then what happens taiwan's screwed or

really quickly by the way taiwan's

semiconductors according to this Wall

Street Journal piece uses somewhere

around six percent of the entire nation

of taiwan's energy

all of it six percent goes to Taiwan

semiconductors it just shows you how

much their manufacturing chips over

there which is kind of remarkable

they're your Nvidia chips for example

but look at this piece because this

piece was remarkable so uh pointing out

some of the best they rely on sea

shipments for 97 of their energy

Taiwan has been slow to expand their

renewable energies especially wind and

solar on the island itself

uh defensive analysts now think Beijing

lacks the capacity to launch an outright

Invasion instead they're more likely to

attempt a selective blockade or

quarantine so squeezing rather than

flattening Taiwan into submission in

other words China could basically win

Taiwan just by circling Taiwan cutting

off the flow of energy and you've got

days of energy left and then you're

screwed we'll talk about exactly how

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so uh what else we have here we have

well total energy self-sufficiency is

Out Of Reach analysts say mitigating

some vulnerabilities and the potential

in the case of a quarantine could help

by time

but even still you're basically screwed

if you end up having China just circle

Taiwan and cutting off their energy uh

Taiwan uh right now even if they were

able to run on just a quarter of its

energy Imports for just critical

infrastructure wouldn't last very long

in fact the length of time they would

last that's what I would like to find

right now here it is here's how long

they might last

they only have two terminals capable of

collectively storing less than just two

weeks worth of natural gas

eight days worth of air conditioning uh

in a in a summer month so in other words

you've got about enough natural gas for

two weeks for the electricity on uh for

electricity on the island

or eight days so you know four what is

that six days Less in the summer when

everybody's cranking the AC I know we

don't have naturally natural gas powered

ACS but that's how we generate the

electricity to get AC right but anyway

uh you have

very limited time before Taiwan

basically runs that energy that means

the lights go off that means uh

infrastructure turns off street lights

turn off chaos right computers turn off

internet turns off everything's bad it's

actually a very potentially easy way for

China to just Crush Taiwan uh which is

kind of scary at the same time you have

politics that are sandbagging energy

Independence whether it's nuclear power

or more solar and wind or a new natural

gas plants which some folks are arguing

that it's actually the Chinese Communist

party that's planting uh you know

protesters or your chinese-backed uh

parties and politicians

arguing no no no we don't want more

natural gas because that's bad for the

environment meanwhile China knows what

they're really trying to do is just

sandbag Taiwan and make them even more

vulnerable kind of an interesting

allegation somewhat makes sense but uh

you know they're also pulling off the

same kind of in my opinion stupidity

that Germany pulled off which was let's

close our nuclear reactors which is what

Germany did and now Germany Imports a

ton of their electricity from France

which guess what makes it with

nuclear power

then you've got the uh current you know

head of the country basically saying

yeah you know what

in 2016 what what did they say they said

we're gonna phase out nuclear power by

2025 because why not be more at risk of

getting cut off from China and why not

use more natural gas when we could be

using less but no it's not politically

popular to build new nuclear power

plants because the old ones sucked

that's basically what's happening you're

looking at nuclear power plants from

like the 60s and 70s that had problems

whether it's Fukushima or otherwise and

rather than rebuilding modern ones

that are substantially safer let's just

shut them all down it's it's honestly

like so stupid oh yeah here's the part

about TSM using six percent of taiwan's

total energy consumption

that energy consumption assumption

surged up 34 in 2020 and 2022 or between

that time frame kind of wild uh but

point being

this

this definitely makes you want to look

at the whole China Taiwan thing in a

little bit of a Different Light because

if you're thinking China neat which I

originally thought too before I saw this

I'm like wow I mean if China's gonna

invade Taiwan they're gonna need you

know well first of all they're going to

be sandbagging their economy because

it's going to take a large like

Herculean or Julian effort to actually

pull it off

to invade Taiwan especially when you've

got countries like the United States

suggesting we'll defend Taiwan at all

costs kind of like what we're doing in

Ukraine oh you got a problem

but you don't even have to do that you

don't even have to shoot anybody no

weapons no war all you have to do is

stop the flow of natural gas and they're

screwed and then flick a finger you know

snap a finger the existing politicians

as soon as the internet and power turns

off all the existing politicians get

voted out the chinese-backed ones come

in you have regime change

instantaneously they turn the power back

on everybody's like Yay the power's back

on the new politicians Rock we're

Chinese now woohoo

I mean I'm obviously substantially

oversimplifying here but uh

I guess the point is I never thought

about it that way and I wanted to share

with you because I it makes me think wow

that's actually a whole lot more likely

uh than uh than we originally thought it

could be because again China could pull

it off without destroying their now I

want you to know this when it comes to

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