The Full State of Stimulus & Stimulus Checks [Late 12-6]

hey everyone me kevin here happy st

nick's day in my last estate of the

stimulus video published last saturday i

mentioned that i thought there was a 65

chance of us getting a stimulus package

of some sort by the end of the year even

if it was just a matter of delaying

certain expirations and those cliffs

we've got coming at the end of the month

now i also mentioned that it was likely

we would see some form of a compromise

bill not a

tiny skinny package of 500 billion

dollars that will go through

or a larger 2.2 trillion package because

that would

set up republicans as losers or

democrats as losers

and nobody wants to look like a loser

going into the big

january 5th georgia runoff election i

also thought that if we saw a compromise

package we would see it

be around one trillion dollars just to

get us through the next few months

a few days later we heard about a

compromised 908 billion dollar

compromise stimulus package

let's catch up on the state of stimulus

today and look at

all the madness that happened over the

last week and then also

look forward as to what we expect this

week let's get started and the easiest

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what brought us here well obviously may

15th we got a heroes act

this bitterly divided congress because

we had democrats pushing a 3.4 trillion

dollar

massive spending package bigger than the

cares act and republicans dug in saying

no we're just going to hit the pause

let's wait and see what happens

there's no way we are doing a liberal

wish list with items

where this bill includes more references

to cannabis than it does

to jobs and so we had a seven month

bitterly divided congress leading to

where we are now

on september 30th we also had the u.s

government budget end

congress decided to pass something known

as a continuing resolution or

cr to just basically say let's just keep

the same expenses we've had

let's go get to december 11th we'll deal

with something then

and if we pass something by december

11th we'll even have two weeks to

quarantine before christmas day so that

way we can spend time with our family

you can see the priorities at congress

seem to often times revolve around

themselves more than they do the people

which is

kind of sad legislators prior to

november said that they wanted a clean

budget bill on december 11th this would

mean that no stimulus would be added

onto a budget bill if stimulus was to

happen it would

have to happen separately mitch

mcconnell was then sidelined in

negotiations and the white house decided

to take over

to negotiate with nancy pelosi nancy

pelosi reduced her offer to 2.2 to 2.4

trillion dollars

on a hero's revised act which did pass

the house

we mentioned on this channel that if the

house actually passes the revised act

it would be bad and the odds of actually

getting stimulus done would be very low

because you don't just pass something

without the other side being on board

with it

because it ends up going nowhere and

that's exactly what happened

this led to talks falling apart between

nancy pelosi and the white house

specifically treasury secretary mnuchin

white house chief of staff mark meadows

they were only 300 to 500 billion

dollars apart though with mnuchin at 1.9

trillion the democrats at 2.2 to 2.4

it's pretty bad that's kind of also very

sad

because we could have easily had

something before the election here

november 9th six days after the election

pfizer comes out and says their vaccine

is 90 plus percent effective now deemed

to be around 94

effective eight days later moderna comes

out with a drug that's 94.5 to 95

effective 20 days after the election

astrazeneca's drug comes out

that's 70 to 90 effective depending on

dosing

georgia's january 5th 2021 senate

election will

will help us determine control of the

senate right now

538 and and we know that polls are polls

but right now

538 indicates that we will still have a

republican-controlled senate

49 democrats and 51 republicans

however this election coming up has

optics a high priority for both

republicans and democrats and that's

because

no side wants to appear weak you want

both republicans and democrats going

into this january 5th election saying

we are going to do absolutely everything

we can to seem as strong

as negotiators and powerful for the good

of this country as possible

a lot of republicans say we can't have

all this debt while democrats say we

need more spending to help those in need

the cdc has reduced quarantine time

frames to seven days with a negative

test

nancy pelosi also says that vaccine

success has created a new

urgency to provide stimulus in state and

local government funding

immediately so rather than holding out

for a big package

nancy pelosi saying you know what big

can hold on let's just do

something now so we can get funding out

for state and local governments

to support vaccine distribution because

it's one thing to get vaccines to

actually show up in a state it's quite

another to get facilities set up and

people to actually

administer these vaccines republicans

introduced a

550 to 600 billion dollar skinny

proposal again bringing up the skinny

proposals

at the same time this was sort of

proposal number one in just

the last week here uh this by the way is

a decision mentioned this is between

december 1st and november 6th or

december 6th right here

so the cdc change came out the nancy

pelosi change came out and republicans

as a first proposal introduced a 550 to

600 billion

skinny proposal we won't talk too

terribly much about that one because

that one's mostly blown aside

at the moment the bipartisan group of

republicans in the senate along with the

problem solvers caucus in the house

introduced a 908 billion dollar

compromise

proposal it is not a bill yet it is a

proposal at the same time democrats have

proposed a 1.3 to 1.4 trillion revised

proposal

which is 1 trillion less than their

hero's light proposal however

we'll probably never see the details of

that because this offer was made in

private

and we are unlikely to ever see what was

potentially included in that

instead all eyes are on this 908 billion

dollar compromise package nancy pelosi

then agreed

to back the bipartisan 908 billion

proposal

and she considers making suggestions for

making improvements to the bill

presumably having more retroactive pay

for unemployment and potentially

including stimulus checks

but in her verbiage she essentially

takes the back seat on any of her

improvements and says but at the very

least we need to get this done

she's basically throwing in the towel on

getting any kind of improvements on that

908 billion dollars

so it's unlikely that she's going to get

any through joe biden calls the 908

billion dollar package a down payment on

the support that we need to provide

down payments are generally deemed a lot

smaller than the full price

that means or implies that we would see

a much larger package come january and

february

joe biden has said the next stimulus

package will come in january

after this bipartisan agreement senator

john thune and lindsey graham both

republicans

along with others complain about

increasing debt and spending and what

this means for our future generations

this is very common it's

why are we spending all of our

children's money is the argument that

republicans make

democrats on the other hand say that

people are suffering the purpose of the

government is to spend now

and pay back our debt later this follows

a very keynesian economics

approach to spending when the economy is

suffering

and when people are suffering december

4th

2021 there were murmurs in the senate

that congressmen and women are

considering a one-week stop

gap measure to provide more time to

negotiate a corona bus package

this would delay the house and senate

leaving on their recess for december

until december 18th and it would also

prevent a government shutdown

for an additional week furthermore on

december 8th

through the 10th that's tuesday through

thursday

of this week we expect the fda to

approve

vaccines potentially pfizer moderna

astrazeneca

one of them some of them we'll see so

far i believe in the united states only

pfizer and moderna have requested

emergency use authorization

we will see likely this week although

it's not certain it could be next week

but likely this week

fda approval that is expected to be huge

for the stock market it is expected to

be a very

large positive catalyst for the stock

market but who knows that could already

be priced in

the market's funny then december 11 2020

the us government budget comes to an end

this is likely being changed to december

18th though via that one week stop gap

measure we talked about

now here's what the current progression

is or what's next so first

to get to the next stages congress needs

to finalize an agreement on an omnibus

spending package it's just easiest to

think about a package

and then think about 12 bills being

within that package

and that package being the government's

budget

and a spending so that is known as an

omnibus

package there are currently 300 hash and

trash

disputes to clean up for nancy pelosi

these are minor policy disputes

to actually get this massive package

done

confederate base naming is one of the

issues 12.5 billion dollars in spending

for the va

being classified as emergency or

non-emergency is one of the issues

border wall funding is an issue after

discussions are completed on the omnibus

package then a stimulus package can be

negotiated

but nancy pelosi says that a stimulus

package cannot be negotiated

before the omnibus package has completed

its negotiations

she wants everyone focused on omnibus

and then we'll focus on

stimulus this is why some people say

that eventually we will get something

known as

the corona bus package which is a

combination of

omnibus and coronavirus relief once the

stimulus package is negotiated

the package must actually be written we

do not yet

have a bill we just have an outline as

to what the bipartisan package might

look like

once it's written it has to get reviewed

in legal review

for congress and then it has to go

through the congressional budget office

who's actually going to determine what

the real cost

of this bill is and the economic impact

of it joe biden implies

that he was the reason nancy pelosi came

down on her offer

and why mitch mcconnell is coming up joe

biden sees red lines in negotiations as

bad

instead mitch mcconnell and nancy pelosi

stopped

hardlining in discussions possibly

because of joe biden

even mitch mcconnell has expressed his

openness to a 908 billion dollar

stimulus package

versus his 550 to 600 billion deal joe

biden says the current stimulus proposal

for 908 billion

is a down payment on what needs to be

done he also goes on to say that in

january another stimulus package will be

passed when asked if republicans will

support this new stimulus package in

january

biden says that the situation will be so

drier if they do not

and that therefore republicans will

support it donald trump reiterates that

he has what it takes

to get the election overturned joe biden

says

stimulus checks may still be in play joe

biden says he supports stimulus checks

rental relief and housing relief

let's now jump on over and take a quick

peek here at what the bipartisan bill

actually looks like

so this is the bipartisan bill and

what's included in it 908 billion

dollars 559 billion dollars of that is

old money

a lot of that is coming from the

treasury department clawing back money

from the federal reserve

this got a lot of negative media

attention and i've mentioned on this

channel no

the media is wrong the ending of those

five cares act programs at the federal

reserve

means nothing for the fed the programs

were barely being used

bring the money back and let congress

reallocate it because it's going to help

convince republicans

that we're not spending as much and to

get a larger stimulus package done

so this was actually a good move 288

billion dollars

for stimulus or sorry small business aid

this is presumed

uh but this is not yet clearly outlined

because the bill has not been written

yet

now this will entail a second draw

opportunity for businesses with a 25

revenue quarter quarter loss possibly a

first draw available if you haven't

yet drawn on ppp funds as a sole

proprietor small business or partnership

though a lot of that remains to be

determined 108 billion or sorry 180

billion dollars

for an unemployment boost this will

provide retroactive unemployment boosts

through

december 1st so going back through

december 1st

and then out unemployment out to the end

of january that is the

the current estimation the retroactive

portion may go back to november 1st yet

that is

still unclear the text has not been

written 160 billion dollars for state

local and tribal support this is urgent

due to vaccine distribution impending

82 billion for education seems a lot

smaller than the initial 224 billion

that republicans wanted

or the 105 billion that uh i'm sorry the

224 that democrats wanted

and the 105 billion that republicans

wanted but

the reason 82 billion might actually not

be that horrible is because half of the

school year is already done it's been

spent with congress

doing basically nothing 45 billion for

transportation 26 for nutrition 25

billion for rental assistance this

cannot be understated

there is so much back rent and landlords

could sue their tenants

and get judgments against them starting

in january under some of these new uh

the the expiring eviction protections

though we may see eviction protections

get extended as well

along with rental relief that would be

good though because it would provide

landlords money and tenants money

16 billion for vaccine development

testing and tracing very important

12 billion for lending support not 100

sure where where they're going to go

with this

10 billion for the post office could

boost workhorse stock

10 billion for child care 5 billion for

opioid treatments 4 billion for student

loans

and then will we get stimulus checks i

believe that there's probably a 20

likelihood that we'll actually get

stimulus checks this year joe biden says

they're still in play

but i'm not going to hold my breath on

that there's a higher likelihood that

maybe we'll see this in january or

february

we'll see though maybe 50 likely

retroactive

unemployment uh 80 chance of this being

through december 1st and 20 chance of it

being november 1st

i don't know that they're going to go

heavily far back on that a homeowner

relief individually i expect that

they'll make some changes on mortgage

forbearance in that but probably not in

this bill that'll probably come

in next year's stimulus packages so

we'll see either way that is the

complete state of stimulus so if you

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