**TERRIBLE JOBS REPORT - WORSE than Expected!**

okay this is bad but a quick note

expiring coupon code tonight expected to

be the highest price increase yet over

at meetkevin.com for the courses on

building your wealth the reason for that

we've got big changes coming for

November and you're going to want to get

in before and get all my trade alerts

for reallocations uh that I might be

making here soon I wanted to flip

bullish today I wanted some good data

but boy we did not get that and look at

some more of these details here first of

all uh the number of of permanent job

losers up on the not seasonally adjusted

basis here and uh on the seasonally

adjusted basis this is really something

that we want to pay attention to because

this is how you end up getting a weaker

economy uh but if you look at the not

seasonally adjusted level we're up

151,000 permanent job losers on the not

seasonally adjusted on the seasonally

adjusted level we are up

214,000 on uh uh permanent job uh losers

which is not great you also have this

ontemporary layoff level going down in

other words fewer people are on

temporary layoffs and more people almost

200,000 more on the not seasonally

adjusted and over 200,000 more on the

seasonally adjusted are not on temporary

layoff these are these are just overall

bad numbers the more I go through the

details the more I nervous I get the

number of full-time workers is down by

over 200,000 in this survey which isn't

great number of full-time workers is

down 200,000 based on this survey again

the more you go through these numbers

the worse it looks you look at the

government data here government data

grew on the not seasonally adjusted

level and on the seasonally adjusted

level it shrunk remember this is where

last month we had this massive surge of

785,000 workers that's right here you're

remember this table alpha 8 I kept

talking about that one like over and

over and over again I'm like this is a

crazy jump 785,000 it's going to get

revised down and guess what it's started

to get revised down but frankly it's not

so much the government workers that I'm

worried about it's go what's going on in

the private sector that I'm worried

about private sector here lost 200,000

on the not seasonally adjusted lost

almost uh what what we got 100,000 100

2,000 right here private sector losing

so many jobs that frankly if it were not

for government hiring in this

report we would have had a negative jobs

report that's scary I mean think about

this for a moment we had healthcare

workers up 52,000 government workers up

40,000 but we lost 46,000 in

manufacturing professional in business

and temporary help we lost 49,000

average it all together private payrolls

so non-government payrolls were negative

you had to have government jobs just to

even get this terrible jobs report that

we got of positive 12,000 now my

nervousness is because we only did a

nominal uh adjustment to that 785,000

government worker Spike that came out of

nowhere last month you know we maybe

adjusted that to like 650,000

approximately you probably still have a

massive amount of government worker

revisions coming and keep in mind these

revisions they're getting worse and

worse in August we initially had a

152,000 labor report and then they told

us oh it actually got better than

expected uh so we went from like one you

know 42 or whatever all the way to 159

people were like oh things are better

the economy is doing better than

expected no it was either a lie or just

bad data and so what happened the August

payroll report went from 159 to 78,000

that's it's a very weak report and that

strong jobs report of September which

was propped up by those 785,000 jobs

would have also been negative headed

output for all those government jobs

31,000 revision to the downside the

payroll report this time headline comes

in at 12K versus 100K expected uh and

the only reason the unemployment rate

held steady is because their

participation rate fell fewer people in

the labor force because people are

giving up they're leaving the labor

force it's so hard to get a job

now obviously we had some seasonal or or

maybe non-seasonal effects here like

hurricanes disaster FEMA hiring Boeing

layoffs and

Strikes who knows the household survey

tries to account for all of that tries

to say hey if you're just on a temporary

layoff we'll still count you as employed

uh if you're going to go back to work

after the hurricane we'll still count

you as employed the household survey

though came in at-

368k again where're last month they tell

us we're positive 430 now it's negative

600 368,000

so the data just straight sucks like I

wanted to go bullish today but the data

is bad this isn't good this is a sign of

an economy that is truly deteriorating

average work week is down an hour

average hourly earnings at 4% the

response rate on the headline The

Establishment survey wasn't that great

47.4% lowest since 1991 but it was

normal for the household survey which I

prefer reading the household survey any

any way because it doesn't have the

impact of double counting employees like

the payrolls report does uh The

Establishment survey but the

establishment survey can be a little bit

more stable less volatile but this is

bad in my opinion like this is this is

going to get us towards that trend of

what I fear which is in January you just

have recessionary payroll reports where

all of a sudden the Federal Reserve is

having to do emergency Cuts I would not

be surprised if this sort of data which

right now is only pricing in about a 25

basis point cut with a 98.5% chance I

wouldn't be surprised if we get another

report that's this bad which I think we

will after that buffer of those

household jobs and those government jobs

continues to get revised down when we

get our November release when we get our

December release in January when we get

our January release in February over the

next 3 months we're just going to keep

seeing revisions down numbers down I

don't see I I don't actually see

employment going up anytime soon so

that's where I expect employment will

continue to go down especially once

government positions have been filled

and seasonal layoffs happen in January

the Federal Reserve is going to be

forced to do emergency Cuts as soon as

q1 of next year to try to avoid a

recession now markets might try to rally

on that because they're like Yay the FED

will save us the FED will cut rates and

everything will be glorious again

they'll turn the money printer on no the

FED historically will act way too slow

to a recession and it'll take a lot

longer to get to Federal Reserve

capitulation and then we'll be in a

place of deflation with lower rates than

we've ever seen before lower wages than

we've ever seen before it'll be even

harder to stimulate to create jobs

because even if there's stimulus people

won't want to hire because they'll just

use AI I know you can't use AI for

everything but the perfect the recipe of

the perfect storm is being created it's

in a freaking

face the good news is we do have an

expiring coupon code today so check that

out over at meetkevin.com you can get in

uh and get all my trade alerts for

reallocations uh that I might be making

here soon take a look at those over at

meetkevin.com do keep in mind we are

expected to have one of the largest

price increases after this expiration

tonight at 11:59 p.m. we'll see you

there thanks so much for watching

goodbye and good luck

[Music]

why not advertise these things that you

told us here I feel like nobody else

knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your take