wtf Tesla | TSLA stock

we need to talk some real facts about

Tesla and I'm talking hard facts I'm not

just talking about saying the kind of BS

on Twitter or YouTube that just gets

Tesla Bulls going oh man I love hearing

everything great about the company while

you busted oh we gotta be realistic just

like in relationships we have to address

problems just like in politics we have

to address hard questions just like in

stocks we have to understand the

Achilles heel and here's the bottom

freaking line we know about Tesla that

it is a company that has the most

pricing power of all the other auto

manufacturers we know that however

because of a more transparent dealership

less model their price reductions are

much more visible in the face of

consumers and therefore their stock

tends to react a little bit more

negatively to price reductions because

there's an impression that their pricing

power is waning which yes in aggregate

pure margin Decline and pricing decline

both of those combined together is a

weakening of pricing power but relative

to the entire Auto industry they have

the strongest pricing power this is

everybody's reducing prices Tesla still

just has the greatest margins out of

everybody else by far

but there are real problems here with

Tesla one of the real problems that we

face is this nonsense about FSD take

rates people are convinced that if full

self-driving just has a free trial which

I have also suggested in years past in

months past have mentioned it many times

every single Tesla should automatically

come with a full self-driving trial for

the first you know 30 60 90 days it

doesn't cost anything just do that give

people a trial unless you're not

confident that people are going to love

it and then people are going to be like

yeah you know I don't want to try that

you know okay maybe that is possible the

reality is going from fifteen thousand

dollars on FSD to twelve thousand

dollars is stupid FSD at least a b

tested should be reduced to five

thousand dollars four thousand nine

hundred dollars if you pay for it all

right 500 per month for the first year

so six hundred dollars if you finance it

over a year or whatever which is fair

because then people can see okay this is

my payment with FSD but it's only the

first year and then it'll drop up people

would go for that I believe that you'd

probably on new purchases have somewhere

around a 75 take rate whereas I think

this 12 to 15 000 level puts you

somewhere either below 10 but certainly

under 20 of a take rate it's too much

money it takes this you know twenty nine

thousand dollar car with federal tax

credits and turns it into a forty two

thousand dollar car no no no no no

there's this this is not the right way

to play it in my opinion I would rather

see FSD take rate 5X

when you 5x you're going to make net

more money think about it 5x the sales

at 5 grand is 25 000 10 more sales at

twelve thousand dollars is what

1200 bucks more you see what I mean like

we really want to get a substantial

boost in the take rate because it's

basically pure profit turn the freaking

switch on and now you actually make the

vehicles a lot more salable because the

total cost of getting into Tesla and FSD

is amazing now don't get me wrong I do

think there's some premium value to FSD

it is better than autopilot but for most

Highway commuters honestly autopilot is

good enough I've got my in-house

attorney he drives he commutes on the

highway mostly I think he's got maybe

two miles to get to the highway here two

miles to get to the highway here and

then like 30 miles in between eventually

he'll move out here but anyway

you only need autopilot for that kind of

commute you don't need full self-driving

right so I think you really want to go

to the next level of convincing people

to get FSD because here's a scenario

where at twelve thousand dollars you

have people who go and at least a B test

it right here's a scenario where you

have people saying I don't know 12 000

bucks you know is it really worth it for

the two and two or the occasional other

time I'm driving around to the grocery

store or whatever no but 4 900 bucks is

that worth it come on baby voting 900

bucks yeah yeah all right all right

bundle that in come on I'll take it now

you know or even make it like

4 900 bucks if you get it up front and

then 5900 bucks if you get it later so

there's some kind of incentive to close

the deal right I think that's that would

be brilliant banana the disability they

want to hear that because they they

their opinion and it's an opinion I

realize this is my opinion too but at

least I'm saying a B test it damn it

okay that's how you know you test it and

then you will know just like with

advertising test it and you will know

I've been complaining that the front

page of the Tesla website should not

have dudes flooring it for 25 to 45 year

old audience they're convinced they

follow Elon Musk they mostly like Elon

Musk though there's some people who are

like okay he's sometimes a little

shyster whatever finally finally they've

changed it to women and families and

that is what I've been complaining about

on Twitter we want women and families

here you go see lady gets in car you got

uh what you know this is going through

so many different Cycles here or

whatever there you go finally finally

okay this is what we want we want to see

children we want to see car seats people

women want to see strollers going into

the trunk okay yes we know there's a

frunk take freaking baby bottles out of

there okay take the damn breast pump out

of the funk damn it come on we need to

expand the audience for Tesla and

somebody not the damn tesl balls who are

the Cyber truck's gonna be the best

selling vehicle ever that may be true

but why don't we talk about real things

Tesla doesn't need more people you know

we need more people given some real

criticism here of the freaking company

change simple things simple things okay

like here's another example you want to

know another example here's something

pisses me off why is it that they know

my damn IP address how do I know that

they know my IP address because I click

on order now and what do I see at the

order now page you want to see what I

see here oh look delivery zip code

Because unless you're on a VPN uh which

I have usually when I'm not streaming on

YouTube uh VPN so man they bog your

bandwidth okay I hate that crap but

anyway they know your location and they

just have a little question mark this is

your zip right or whatever right it's

obviously underlined implying you could

change it if it's wrong but what should

they be saying here hey by the way it

looks like you're you're in California

did you know if your income is under X

or you have this many people in your

household you could actually get an

additional up to 7 500 with with

California the clean energy rebate

you know it might even be an extra two

thousand dollars come on why is that

nowhere here Tesla is selling the damn

cars and they're not telling you

something that could take a few damn

minutes of research why are they not

doing that that's a laziness this is a

lack of oversight on the company that

should be advertising every free

advantage that they have you think the

solar people when they go to sell solar

are like you should buy solar because

you're gonna break even on your solar

investment in four years you think

that's all they say no they tell you

about every tax credit under the sun

because that's called selling why would

you not take a free benefit and inform

your customer about it clean energy

rebate California okay it's not that

hard okay we're gonna do it together and

then I've got some more crap to complain

about look at this what it says look at

this funds are nearly exhausted

applications received on or after

September 6th 2023 will be placed on a

standby list bro why is Tesla not been

announcing this to every freaking person

look at that effective August 15th

increase rebate recipients will receive

an additional two thousand dollar EV

card what the hell

like they're letting all the other

companies pitch this crap okay let's go

in here let's grab a uh let's grab a

battery electric vehicle new scrap a

retire a vehicle no uh okay whatever

let's go with uh San Diego household

size four income I don't know let's go

to 90 to 120. let's just see what we get

we got a freaking calculator

come on wait for it it's loading it's

pinwheeling okay I realize you just not

loaded yet okay we'll let that load for

a second anyway that's the kind of stuff

that pisses me off let's let that load I

don't know why the website's taking so

long in the meantime what do we have

here I'm gonna refresh jeez Lord come on

dude how I mean it is California for you

you know so you gotta you gotta kind of

uh roll with the punches here because

they're not uh they're not the best at

keeping things functional but that's

okay what about the other price drops

okay the other price drops they were

necessary you know how many times I have

complained on this YouTube channel oh my

god with the information that it hold on

a sec look at that look at this I put in

I didn't even put in a San Diego ZIP

code and so they're not even checking on

it but for household size of four

household income of 90 to 120 000 you're

estimated to get seventy five hundred

dollars

come the freak on add that with an EV

card God damn it Tesla what are you

doing you know Ford is doing this

instead you'll just drop the prices

where is your advertising Department

what are you doing okay this is why like

people should be realistic about Tesla

and sending the correct pressure to

Tesla as a stakeholder in Tesla and stop

just sucking on the Katie

Tesla has uh uh then also changed their

prices on the plaid and the s

uh as well as the X uh the s-plat and

the long range S as well as the long

range X and the Plaid X okay so let me

be clear here well first of all it's

nice some of these now qualify for some

additional tax credits as well which is

great

uh for example the model X now starts

under eighty thousand dollars so it

makes it eligible for the federal tax

credit but also some others for States

again like we did in the savings

calculators here I want to be very clear

about this

there is no reason almost no reason to

buy the s to the X the S and the X also

make up like a fraction of the sales I

mean we're talking about under 10 of the

sales okay the three and the Y cell

everyone there's unless you wanna and I

I made this mistake okay I want to be

clear

I I should not have bought both the S

and the X I should have bought a y and a

y

the Y's got enough space the X is

marginally bigger the doors are kind of

cool the Falcon door is cool if you want

to show off you want to waste extra

money it's fine but for most practical

purposes

the uh 3 and the Y which you can get in

the uh six seat configuration as well

these are fantastic cars the seven seat

version of the model X makes your trunk

like this big you can't even put a

stroller back you can't even put a case

of beer back there damn it when you have

the seven seats up okay so there's some

lack of functionality things there's not

much space this is why the Cyber truck

is going to be really cool but I want to

be very clear

dropping the price on the S and X is

necessary in fact they should drop the

price of these more at smart

get you're gonna get extra margin here

like do it I know there's some extra

cost but it's not much extra cost uh but

uh this is smart

they didn't drop the price on the three

and the Y in fact in some countries they

actually increased the price of the

model 3 uh which honestly will probably

more than offset the damage of the price

drop on these cars that people aren't

buying anyway the S and the X because it

doesn't make sense to do that Biden

announced some more grants for auto

manufacturing conversion projects two

billion dollars Tesla doesn't convert

but they do have two billion dollars in

loans to support auto manufacturing we

don't need loans we got free cash flow

although I wouldn't be surprised if soon

if they get some sweetheart deals uh

they'll actually start using some of

those loans or they'll just sell shares

3.5 a billion dollars to expand domestic

uh manufacturing of batteries for EVS

that's good that's great the new uh

Tesla Model three eight percent more

range new rear passenger stream screen I

made a joke I'm like oh it's got LED

strips that's gonna hurt margins it's a

joke damn it I know they're cheap uh

stockless driving grade reduction in

Parts vented front seats that's actually

kind of cool uh look you know these are

these are normal things like these

aren't things where we should be like oh

my gosh project Island it's gonna it's

gonna change all the margins it will be

a more efficient and more profitable

vehicle but you would expect this it's

like you expect Apple to improve on the

iPhone every year that's what a good

company does I do believe that Tesla is

a good company I do believe that the

valuation for Tesla in the future will

be substantially higher than where the

valuation is for Tesla today I strongly

believe that by the end of 2025 it's

actually reasonable to be sitting

somewhere around a 420 figure assuming a

1.67 peg at about a 35 percent growth

rate and about uh 3.5 million Vehicles

sold that's down from previously

estimated four uh I believe that and I

think that

Tesla stock today is pricing in more

pain with margin and uh higher for

longer interest rates that's okay

because it just gives you more time to

acquire shares that will be worth

probably no guarantee it's not going to

double in the future

uh so I'm a big fan of that but I'm a

big fan here of solely being Mr uh you

know oh God is Elon is God and

everything they're doing is perfect no

it's not and they should they if they're

if Tesla's listening this they should be

like I mean Kevin we don't expect you to

be you know we need this kind of

criticism we appreciate it so get some

babies in the damn car pitch the

freaking State bait you know people's

ZIP codes pitch the state based credits

it's free damn money free money you're

letting everybody else take it by not

pitching it it's stupid and I know

people are like a little bit you know

people can search it themselves but they

don't they don't know that's why you

have to advertise

to go on a plane now and I'm gonna go

fly and look at some real estate because

I can't handle this anymore let's not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes congratulations man you

have done so much people love you people

look up to you Kevin financial analyst

and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to

get your take