Tesla Stocks Real Explosion is Coming.

now we've got to touch on a Tesla and a

price Target by a company that has

billions of dollars under not only

management but specifically in Tesla

stock we're going to go through what

their price Target is for both 2025 and

2030. but first what I'd like to do is

look at an opinion piece by a

balloonberg uh journalist and I have to

say it's pretty good I think it really

hits on some sentiment and I love the

title musk has turned Tesla's quote

failing into winning and really what

what he's starting off by saying is that

there's so much fear uncertainty and

doubt that's placed on Tesla that it's

almost like the old Shakespearean line

of me thinks thou protest too much I've

changed that slightly but that's what we

generally colloquially say uh and that's

really to say that it seems like so much

of the hate for Tesla is misplaced now

there's so much criticism while at the

same time as there's so much criticism

you end up with a company that

outperforms over and over and over again

it's really incredible I mean I have to

say from a personal point of view uh I I

could not believe when somebody came up

to me and said that they actually

uninstalled Twitter solely because of

Elon Musk that they won't buy a Tesla

solely because of Elon Musk and I'm

thinking to myself like how much CNN are

you watching because the hate is totally

misplaced they can't actually give you a

really good reason for hating on Tesla

one of the things people do who hate on

Tesla is they talk about uh recalls and

and I love this this was a fantastic uh

quote here it was actually from a Forbes

article Sawyer Merit here uh quoted this

Forbes piece it was fantastic since

January 2022 Tesla has had quote 21 or

quote unquote recalls for about 4.1

million vehicles with some Vehicles

counted multiple times 99 of those

Vehicles were fixed using a software

update that did not require customers to

go into a dealership or replace car

parts and remember like when you get a

recall for a car it is an opportunity

for the dealership to sell you more

service right so in some regard the

recall game is actually profitable for

companies they get people to bring their

cars into the dealership thinking

they're getting something for free but

of course when you go in

inconveniently taking time obviously out

of your day to actually go there and do

it and have somebody drive you back and

drop you off or whatever you actually

often get sold some form of other

upgrades or service because you may as

well get that additional service done

because you're already there you've

already gone through the inconvenience

of going there so the sunk cost fallacy

sets in people are more likely to spend

money on their vehicles because they're

already there but going back to the rest

of this tweet right here from this

Forbes piece meanwhile Fiat Chrysler Kia

Hyundai VW BMW had no software fixes and

Ford Nissan GM and Mercedes did have

software fixes but they were able to

only fix one percent of the Ford recalls

two percent of the Nissan recalls 32

percent of the GM recalls and 17 of the

Mercedes recalls were fixed via software

updates whereas again with Tesla 99 of

Teslas were fixed using some form of

software update here's that Forbes piece

by the way if you want to look at it

Tesla recalls 4 million Vehicles since

January of 2022. you could uh read the

rest of that Forbes article if you'd

like but really there there does seem to

be this

hysteria around hating Tesla and what's

remarkable is despite all of this hate

somehow Tesla continues to get stronger

and this is what the Bloomberg writer

here is saying while everyone thought

musk's entanglement with Twitter would

be damaging to Tesla or the recall fod

the uh you know business practices

lawsuits whatever

what you end up getting are results that

prove otherwise Tesla they say is now

turning 100 of Revenue into an

industry-leading 26 dollars of profit

for their per uh for gross profit now

keep in mind that is expected to go down

to about twenty dollars so I don't want

anybody to freak out when we see margin

potentially go down to twenty dollars at

least in the next few quarters after

some of the price reductions that we've

seen and until some of those uh

commodity costs actually start flowing

through is lower borrowing any for

further increases keep in mind the Tesla

in their last earnings call told us this

they told us they expect to potentially

see gross profit go down to twenty

dollars and then of course the goal

would be to see that rise back to thirty

dollars about that thirty percent margin

but even at twenty six dollars this is

seen as the widest gross margin uh

really in the industry and if you look

at their net profit margin the way this

they wrote this and then showed a chart

here was a little confusing but this

chart right here here is actually a

chart of their net profit margin Tesla's

net profit margin far exceeds any of its

competitors and what you really want to

pay attention to is byd is right here on

the right it's this Orange Line let's go

let's use the laser here there we go uh

it's this orange line right here you can

see that their net at least on this

chart here for last year sitting

somewhere under five percent right

around three to four percent is where

byd sits Volkswagen knocking on the door

of uh probably what half of that maybe

maybe somewhere around two percent uh

Toyota is over a little bit higher at

about seven percent uh and Tesla on a

net basis is sitting up here at uh 16 to

17 net that's really incredible now

what's also really incredible is you

just had the uh the the uh who was it uh

uh yeah toy Mr toyoda who is the CEO

over at Toyota he ended up saying hey

about a month ago he was interviewed and

and the Wall Street Journal ran this

story he ended up saying ah I'm part of

the silent majority everybody wants a

hybrid car this is Toyota often

regularly deemed one of the most

reliable vehicles in the industry right

uh vehicle manufacturers in the industry

with some of the highest resale values

they're convinced on hybrids yet within

a month of that it turns out he's

getting the boot and they're replacing

him with a CEO who realizes no no we

need to double down on electric vehicles

not just hybrids but let's keep going

with the with the Bloomberg piece here

so you've got 30 analysts have a buy

recommendation on Tesla a record for the

company since their IPO in 2010 number

of upgrades on the company Rose a 32

last year even though Tesla share price

is plummeted 65 percent amid a nasty

bear market for Tech related stocks

Bloomberg's consensus rating which

quantifies analyst forecast reveals no

other automaker was so emphatically

upgraded perhaps the reason why analysts

are so enamored is because Tesla

continues to prove doubters wrong and

these were some interesting quotes here

listen to this model 3 sedan sales

increased from basically zero to about

half a million units in 2022 uh they had

so they had less than 2 000 in 2017 ran

that up 278 times to about half mil in

2022. I don't think it's in necessarily

really fair to use that 278 number

because obviously if I mean you could

just say they increase sales infinitely

from zero right but from a comparison

point of view it's very interesting that

the Toyota Prius has seen its sales Fall

66 during the same period And while the

next biggest arrival for electric

vehicles saw their sales at byd rise

just 17 times now byd is crushing it

okay don't get me wrong anyway he's

crushing it they do not have anywhere

near the margin Tesla does they have

somewhere around one-fourth to one-fifth

of the net margin we just saw that on

the prior chart

but anyway uh this was this is pretty

remarkable and and I think they make a

really good argument here that hey look

despite all of the hate around Tesla

Tesla's killing it but beyond that some

of the price targets from people with

massive amounts of money like Baron

funds which is billions of dollars of

assets under management are really

incredible let's take a look at some of

these price targets so this is a um uh

you could actually read this full

article in uh Seeking Alpha uh anyway uh

the baron funds letter was was posted

here and they talk a little bit about

the history of them investing in Tesla

first making uh 1.6 percent of their

asset under management uh uh purchase

into Tesla back in

2016. uh and since then obviously a

Tesla has grown substantially they did

end up selling around 6.8 million shares

between 2020 and 2022 about a fourth of

their shares to reduce their allocation

to Tesla because it ran so much

their average cell was about 221 a share

slightly above where it sits now uh and

and of course this was over the last two

years here but they still hold

17.6 million shares of Tesla which is

valued at about 3.1 billion dollars

pretty remarkable but look at their

price target for the baron fund and and

it's just the show this is you know when

people are bullish in the industry it's

it's really interesting to see if

they're actually putting their money

where their mouth is and here's an

example where they are we believe

Tesla's share price would reach 500 per

share in 2025. now I'll try to Pat

myself on the back here but that happens

to be my price target for 2025. maybe

they're watching my videos if you are

I'd love to do an interview with y'all

and if you're not that's okay because I

don't want to read my own opinion I want

to read other people's opinions uh but

anyway uh and their 2030 price Target

which I don't really have a 20 30 price

Target uh I mean I I've mentioned some

out there there's somewhere out there

we've done some numbers on in the past

but it's not super Salient in the back

of my mind but anyway

1500 is there 20 30 price Target and

they are still reiterating that price

Target today

that's based on our expectations for

Tesla's long-term sales growth High

industry-leading profit margins achieved

for its exceptional products not only

are there approximately 80 million cars

sold per year but the quote car park

worldwide that needs to be replaced is

more than 2 billion Vehicles these are

cars powered by pollution emitting ice

engines internal combustion engines I

mean that's kind of like saying an ATM

machine right automated teller machine

machine right it's ice engine is kind of

like internal combustion engine engines

now we gotta be careful on that but

anyway uh if you just say ice it sounds

a little funny so anyway gas cars gas

guzzlers Fair simpler anyway this is

pretty remarkable and a remarkable price

Target and it makes sense I mean after

all the profit margins alone speak for

themselves at Tesla where is it where oh

they were on my uh in my Bloomberg piece

stand by uh the charts over here are

ones that we talk about regularly at

Tesla and we could really use these and

and model uh some of the more in my

opinion worst case scenarios with with

Tesla pricing by seeing hey how what

does tests look like even if we end up

with only a 20 margin in potentially

lower growth rates right uh and so if we

do that well let's model it together

let's see what we get so let's go to a

20 uh gross margin let's assume 20

vehicles

uh or over here by 2025 let's assume 4

million vehicles and we'll go with uh 47

000 Revenue per vehicle we'll keep

everything kind of stable here uh that

we generally do

so sort of re-explaining this whole

sheet again if we go with just a 20

gross margin which is pretty weak we

expect that to rise up to 30 percent

again the end of the decade maybe within

the next few years who knows uh at uh at

a 30 percent assumed growth rate which

is lower than that's probably the lowest

part of the range that that Wall Street

is generally expecting you're still

sitting at about 400 bucks per share at

a 30 growth rate and then a 1.67 x Peg

which is a very reasonable ratio very

very reasonable for for a company

growing at 30 to be selling for 1.67

times Peg we're closer to like point

eight point point nine right now on on

what Tesla's selling for uh but it's

it's a long-term average is

substantially even above 1.6 but anytime

anyway

so if we just change that to where the

margin is approximately right now and we

go to say uh oh I don't know let's go

with an expense of 74 that gives us

profit of about 26 so if we go with

about a 26 margin uh that number changes

to 533 bucks pretty quickly but you

could see how every one percent makes a

difference you have 533 bucks

we just change margin one percent

uh 533 turns into 511. so you're looking

about 20 every one percent of margin at

Tesla is worth about 22 dollars per

share it's quite a bit because that

margin is going to fluctuate and I do

think there's going to be some fear

around what happens in the q1 Q2

earnings for Tesla uh specifically

because marginal probably be its weakest

during those quarters and those will be

quarters that uh that that were also

still evaluating hey is inflation ever

going to go away is the Fed ever going

to relax so uh these These are uh you

know these these are things to uh pay

attention to uh from some comments here

uh we've got someone saying Mr Toyota is

a genius slash sarcasm someone's

laughing too how much a CNN are you

watching I mean I hate to say it but

they seem to be one of the pure ones

that seem to be bagging on them pretty

pretty heavily here have you guys seen

The Electric solar powered Yachts you

know I think I hate to say it but I

think a lot of anything any solar

powered engine for now probably just

clickbait most of the solar power that

we can actually support on any kind of

vehicle right now just goes into

pre-conditioning cabin temperatures for

either cars or boats uh you know

anything widely if it's if it's powered

solely by solar it'd probably take you

know 12 hours or more of sitting in the

sun potentially days of sitting in the

sun to actually fill up your batteries

is it possible yeah I mean to some

regard we could put a Tesla you could

put a solar panel on a Tesla and

potentially charge the sucker up if it

sits out in the sun for a couple weeks

you know I mean eventually it'll it'll

it'll charge it up solar power isn't

quite there uh for for compact form

factors yet now can you do it with solar

Farms absolutely big fan big fan of

solar forms I think we should have a lot

more solar Farms out in in uh you know

the desert areas of California or Vegas

we've already got solar Farms but we

should have even more I think that's a

phenomenal way to do it and now you're

also producing solar at scale throwing

solar panels on on smaller Vehicles

though I think is mostly just click bait

and and trying to make people you know

be able to say oh I'm green you know

that'd kind of be like oh my jet has a

solar panel on it it's like that's it's

just it's like [ __ ] excuse me but

for for you know the what what it's

actually producing so I'm not I'm not a

fan or a believer in any kind of solar

panels on vehicles and I probably won't

be for a very long period of time

because the solar panel technology its

capture rate is still very very weak I

mean its efficiency is gosh a solar

panel efficiency has got to be somewhere

in the 20 range so it's still really

inefficient but what's remarkable is as

much as we're seeing solar panels spread

imagine if we could just increase the

efficiency of solar panels I mean

they're already good in in bulk Factor

good enough to be on the roof of your

house for example good enough to be in a

solar in a solar arm not there yet for

vehicles but but uh there's so so much

potential science that can go into

making the capture technology for solar

so much better uh that uh that that in

the long term there'll be some pretty

neat advances and yeah I think in the

long term in the future sure solar panel

of vehicles I think uh would be a

possibility but I don't think we're

anywhere close to that I think we're 20

30 years away from seeing that but uh

you know it's interesting still

interesting anyway uh a yacht was

unveiled in Dubai the hull of the art

was all solar panels that's interesting

thank you for sharing that uh let's not

possible smart

um you guys still don't buy it

especially the hull of the ship I'm like

you really need the angle of incidence

matters so much and I mean maybe you

could argue you're getting some

reflectivity off of the water to try to

power uh this but I wonder how much how

much efficiency Falls now if the hull of

the ship instead of you know actually

pointing at the sun is exposed to

um uh to solar the solar radiation uh

that that brings the solar energy I

don't know I don't know I'm not buying

that one and then and then when I hear

Dubai too I'm like okay like a world of

like facade man come on and I'm like

sorry if you live in Dubai but you

probably know it or you've been to Dubai

it's all facade uh but anyway so you

know what it's very fitting actually

that the facade of a solar panel boat

was unveiled in Dubai