Tesla Stock AFTER Robotaxi | Analysis

It's time for an updated price analysis

on Tesla following the launch of the

robo taxi service in Austin, Texas. So,

in this video, we're going to uh break

down how much money Tesla could make

from its robo taxi service and how much

this could move the underlying stock,

which is quite exciting to think about.

It's also worth realizing that as

expected, anytime Elon Musk launches a

product, there is a lot of criticism.

So, let's get started with the criticism

first and then let's talk about the

upside. The goal in this video is to be

as balanced as possible. Criticism

number one, Tesla's robo taxi service is

only available in this small portion of

Austin, Texas. potentially a region of

Austin, Texas that was essentially LAR

based, mapped using other Tesla fleet

vehicles. That's uncertain. That is not

guaranteed to be clear. But what we do

know is that the FSD vehicles that these

robo taxis about 10 to 12 uh Model Y

vehicles use is a beefed up robo taxi

system uh or an FSD system that regular

users do not have access to. That is one

criticism. Second criticism obviously is

that so far only people who are signing

up and who are handpicked by Tesla staff

are having the opportunity to actually

enjoy these rides leading to some

speculation that only people with a

positive outlook for Tesla are actually

getting to experience these rides rather

than potentially third party reporters

or otherwise. So far, uh, one clip that

seems to be circulating on the internet

is this, uh, potentially mistaken left

turn here, uh, in the Tesla robo taxi

where, uh, it looks like the car gets a

little confused in the intersection,

starts jittering a bit to the left. It's

not unusual to see that when a car is

following a lead vehicle. Uh, in fact,

if you look closely, you could see what

appears to be the navigation right here

at the top right. So, the navigation

indicates that the car should be

proceeding straight and following the

white vehicle right here. However,

Tesla's FSD software does bias towards

following a lead car. So, it's likely

that in the very moment where it's lead

car started turning left, you could

actually see the desire to follow the

lead car right here. It got a little

confused and realized, wait, the lead

car isn't going the direction I'm

supposed to be going. And honestly, a

lot of people are pooping on this as a

Tesla failure. I actually I mean like

it's obviously not good that it cut this

yellow line here, but for what it is, I

mean, it shouldn't be doing any of this,

right? This I People do it, especially

if you're in South Florida, okay? People

cut those yellow lines all the time.

But, you know, if this was if this is

how it resolved it without intervention,

obviously if there was a vehicle here,

we would have expected it to stop. I

mean, it's bad. It's not terrible, you

know? So, so it's kind of like the

Chernobyl line. Okay. Not great, not

terrible.

It's a little embarrassing, though. But

in fairness, of the hundreds of miles of

trips that they've already done with

these, for this to be one of the worst

clips, maybe not necessarily that

terrible. Pretty decent. Now, of course,

that's leading to a lot of outrage from

Tesla fans. like this person. Third Row

Theory says, "I'm sorry, Carlson, but

I'm going to have to unfollow you at

this point on all platforms. I really

enjoyed your content since I discovered

you during co, but your clear bias

against Tesla is very off-putting and

not very objective." So this is also not

uncommon to see frustration amongst the

the sort of criticism that gets more

virality on the internet because as

usual when mistakes happen especially

with robo taxis you're going to get more

criticism. Now, here's a post from Tesla

AI's team that uh Elon Musk also shared

on X, and I think I think it's great and

very rewarding for the team to be able

to share this image because it shows

like you've got a whole department

dedicated to this robo taxi launch. And

it's a big deal for Tesla, like very

motivating for all the Tesla employees,

mind you, right? But of course, one of

the first things that you realize uh

when people get into these actual uh

photos is that there appears to be

a set of steering wheels at computer

desks that could potentially be used to

actually drive the vehicles. Uh from the

location here, you can see apparently I

mean it's hard to tell, but that looks

like another one here. Maybe another one

here, another one here. And this is

probably the same thing that you see

with Whimos where they have some kind of

control center where they can kind of

take over driving for the vehicle

remotely if it runs into a problem. And

honestly, it's probably a good thing if

you want end up in some weird

construction zone or whatever, you might

uh you might want somebody who could

just quickly hop in and take over,

especially if it's, you know, an edge

case scenario, right? Uh, here's a

complaint from somebody who says, "Turns

out the very much vaunted, never heard

of that word before. Robo taxi quote

unquote launch, well, it kind of already

imputes some negative bi bias there, was

really a quote mystery treasure hunt as

instead of the robo taxi coming to you,

you get to go on an exciting hunt for it

as it gleefully hides some blocks away.

Can't make this up." Uh, so it looks

like they're kind of taking a video from

a Tesla bull and it appears they kind of

can't figure out where the Tesla parked.

Now, this is it's unclear if they put

the wrong pin in or uh what they ended

up doing or if the car is just confused.

I'm gonna unfortunately just assume

without watching all this that it it's

it's likely that this is not normal, but

it is sort of a like a day one launch

issue. And they do end up discovering

the vehicle in this parking lot on the

other side, which in fairness also to

taxis, sometimes there are rules against

just being able to stop on busy roads to

pick people up. And if there's no

available parking here, you know, the

idea that, oh, let's just borrow the

bike lane can can sometimes get cited. I

don't know, you know, it it's obviously

inconvenient for the passenger

experience, right? Uh so not not not

great, not terrible. There are also now

these rumors uh and allegations that uh

Tesla uh you know has individuals who

sit inside of the car who will actually

uh tightly hold the door release button

uh to potentially emergency stop the

vehicle. Uh, I would imagine there's

some kind of safety component here where

if somebody tries to open the door, the

car just like stops, pulls over, and

sets the hazards, right? Kind of ironic

the Whimo in the picture right here. But

anyway, there's, you know, somebody

here. It could also just be like they're

holding on to something, but then again,

more and more people are posting figures

of pe pictures of people with their

thumbs on sort of the button over here.

uh almost sort of implying that they

like move their hand their their um

finger off of the switch, you know, when

when there's no concern or whatever. I I

don't know. I mean, this seems a little

extreme, a little nitpicky here, but it

is an allegation that's happening.

Another allegation right here is people

are looking at the other point of view

of the, you know, Tesla control room and

they see here 112 rides and then 499

miles driven. Uh, and so people are kind

of making fun of that ratio. So if we

zoom in on this, what you could see here

is

112 rides, 499. So 499 divided by 112

works out to about 4.4 four miles per

ride. I actually don't take much issue

with this because frankly the hardest

part of the taxi ride, much like in

flying, hey, have I ever told you I'm a

pilot? Is the takeoff and landing. So

it's picking up your customer, parking

where your customer is supposed to be,

dropping off your customer, and that

in-n-out engagement less so like I drove

for 30 miles on the highway. Okay, Robo.

Like Tesla's FSD has been capable of

doing that since 2017. I bought a 2017

Model X in 2017 and I was the first one

of the first people on YouTube bragging

about how amazing Teslas were and FSD

was uh way before it was popular to brag

about it. Uh that's not to say there

weren't other people who were early as

well or or even earlier, but it's just

to say like this is not a surprise. Like

getting highway miles is not a big deal

for Tesla. Okay, that's not the game

changer here. I'll tell you what the

gamecher is for Tesla. First of all,

this morning in the alpha report, before

the market even opened, before it

opened, in our alpha report, which which

is available at meetke.com, you could

join it. Use coupon code Fed uh JPAL,

just J Ap.

We mentioned that Tesla today on this

robo taxi launch is highly likely to hit

347. The 347 line is the way to go. and

uh we literally skyrocketed it all the

way up to 357 only to of course magnet

down and consolidate around 347 because

after all that's how Kevin's lines work.

That said, what we really need to talk

about is what happens when we look at

Tesla revenues uh or FSD revenues uh

inside of Tesla's valuation. I think

that's what everybody wants to know,

like how much is this actually worth to

the stock on a fundamental basis. So

what we're going to do is we're going to

go through this spreadsheet here and I'm

going to break it down for you. I want

to start by saying that the valuation

today we can calculate pretty easily

just by using sort of a forward peg.

However, you have to be really cautious

about using forward pegs because what

happens is you have to base them off of

either your own growth rate or Wall

Street's growth rate and both of them

could be false. So, always remember that

growth rate matters and use a consistent

standard for when you're making

estimates for a stock. Obviously, PEG

ratios do you no good when something is

experiencing large momentum. They're

typically used for a fundamentalbased

analysis. So, if I get the annual

earnings expectations for Tesla and we

go to let's see here we've got let's see

2025 estimates of earnings per share.

Ah, here we go. financials. Okay,

perfect. So, 2025 we're looking at about

a buck 89 of earnings. Okay. Well, the

stock right now is trading for about

$348 and we're looking at a buck 89 of

earnings. That means right now we're

trading for about uh 184 times. Well,

Wall Street believes that Tesla's

earnings, so their EPS over the next

four years into the future could average

38.8%.

So we take that 184 divided by 38.8%

equals Tesla right now is trading for

about a 4.7 peg which is quite high.

Technically if Tesla were trading as a

manufacturer right now as a manufacturer

Tesla would probably be trading for

about $120 time $120 purely as a

manufacturer and as a service provider.

So like you know uh robo taxi or or some

other higher margin business right

they'd be trading for based on today's

EPS they'd be trading for about $200. So

there's a big premium built into there

for something else. Roboaxi Optimus Hope

whatever. So what I've done is I've gone

ahead and put together a spreadsheet for

2027.

And this is my opinion of 2027 and how

we get in here. So, first what I like to

do is I'm going to assume that for 2027

we're going to have uh 4 million

vehicles. You know what? I'm going to

actually move this over to the laptop

because sometimes the laptop's just or

the computer rather desktop. It's a

little easier to look at. Uh so we're

going to take 2027 numbers for Tesla and

we're going to assume that vehicle

deliveries grow. Uh so we get back to

potentially a lower interest rate

environment. I actually think that's

very likely given also that the Fed is

kind of starting to give us some hints

that they're freaking out a little bit

about the potential labor market, which

mind you, as long as like the people who

buy Teslas can keep up their earnings,

you might actually be in a place where

hey, maybe uh maybe we could still buy

Teslas, right? Uh that's going to be the

important thing. So you ask yourself

that when you're thinking about Tesla,

who's buying Teslas when rates come back

down? Well, hopefully everybody. That's

the goal for any car company. Uh but

rates coming down should be really

supportive of Tesla. So let's go in

here. So we're assuming 4 million

vehicles uh at a revenue per vehicle of

about 34,000.

So this is relatively low. Uh but the

average selling prices for the vehicles

have been falling. And our latest

revenue per uh vehicle has been

somewhere around 40.5K.

But we're lowering this a bit just

because we do think over time these

prices are trending down. We'll

hopefully have some lower price vehicles

introduced, but we can always adjust

this back up. I do think keeping this

$26 billion in here might be a risk.

This is a high estimate for 2027. Losing

uh battery and solar tax credits

uh could hurt this substantially. So,

it's worth knowing we probably have to

lower the energy revenues down quite a

bit. So, that's going to be something we

have to pay attention to as well. And

then what we're going to do is we're

going to include

uh the uh what's it called? Uh the robo

taxi revenues. Okay. Why is my

collaboration? Okay, screw it. We'll

we'll go to the iPad stupid thing. It's

uh classic classic Apple not being able

to sync this stuff. So put a bit like

put an asterisk on this due to uh due to

the big beautiful bill, right? Loss of

energy credits. Mind you, they also get

manufacturing t tax benefits. So, you

you want to be aware of that as well.

Okay. Mind you, I'm also not really

putting any revenues in here for

insurance or semis or FSD. The reason I

don't do that is because I put I assume

FSD is part of the revenue per vehicle.

Uh and uh a Tesla bot. I think we're

still a little too early for this. And

we're going to go throw robo taxi in in

just a moment. But first, I want to show

you what the numbers look like without

robo taxi. So, this is 2027 and it

assumes a massive growth in the energy

business. And if I do this as a

manufacturer, I could get this stock to

about $300 per share as a manufacturer

in 2027. This actually isn't bad if you

think about it. 4 million vehicles at

34K, 26 bill in energy, $300 stock.

That's great.

Now, what we want to see is how does

robo taxi affect this, right? So, in

order to see how robo taxi affects this,

let's just assume for a moment we do a

million rides at $15 a piece on average.

A million rides would be huge, right? If

if Tesla could pull off a million robo

taxi rides safely, no issues, gamecher,

but still from a revenue point of view,

probably not very exciting. Why? Because

if we assume a 70% margin, $15 million

of, you know, $15 time 1 million and

$4.5 million of expenses is actually not

going to move the stock at all. Really,

you go from 301. Let's see what it is.

Let's make this zero again.

So, I'll make that zero. It was 30178

30167. It adds about what 11 cents to

the stock. So doing a million $5 or a

million $15 robo taxi rides, that's not

where the money is. This is not where

robo taxi makes money. Where Tesla makes

money is this competing against Uber.

Okay, Uber has about $90 billion of US

revenue. Again, just the United States.

The United States represents about 53%

uh of their total revenues. uh and

you've got about 7 million drivers

worldwide. So assume somewhere around

3.6 3.7 million Uber drivers in America.

Tesla has a huge advantage here as does

any frankly robo taxi company in that

with a robo taxi you do not have to deal

with some loser driver trying to turn

off the air conditioning so they could

save money on gas which is a terrible

customer experience. You don't have to

worry about the driver talking your ear

off when you don't want to talk to them.

And you don't have to worry about them

driving like a loser because they're in

a hurry to get to their next ride.

You're going to get a computer where you

control the AC and you don't have to

talk to it.

I I would love that. Okay. I I like

because I believe that six to seven out

of 10 times I get an Uber that has one

of those problems. They want to save gas

and so they make the experience

miserable. They yap my ear off. They

won't stop talking. Or they just drive

dangerously and I feel like I'm in a

roller coaster back there. It's nasty.

Tesla has an advantage in being able to

get rid of this. And so what you have to

really do to to make this look beautiful

is you have to assume that they could

take share from Uber. So let's say for a

moment uh Uber does three well Uber does

three billion rides per quarter, 12

billion rides per year. Uh and uh they

got about $90 billion of annual US

revenue. That's total potential robo

taxi revenue. They still share that

money. So that's not their income.

That's not the company's income. That's

their total sort of like you know how

much gets transacted through their

application. All right. So if you took

10% of this, you'd have potentially $9

billion of revenue. Uh and this is US

and we're going to go with a 30% margin

on this, right? Because you you're going

to have staff, you're going to have

repairs, you're going to have vehicle

depreciation. The cars you put into the

fleet are cars you're not paying. you're

going to have charging, maintenance,

insurance, uh, supervisors, the app, you

know, all the bull crap, whatever. So,

what we're going to do is we're going to

put $9 billion in here, and we're going

to see how the spreadsheet changes from

uh the $31 price target we had before.

So, if I do 9 billion here, we

automatically jump up to 2.7 in robo

taxi expenses. That 30 is already in

here. Great. Uh, and then what we find

is Robo Taxi has the potential of

adding, I kid you not, $69 to the share.

That's priceless. I didn't even plan

that. Uh, it has the chance of adding

$69 uh to the share price of Tesla uh

with 10% of Uber's

uh market share. Now obviously this

assumes uh 10% of Uber market share and

uh appropriate licensing slash no major

accidents right because obviously

accidents could derail licensing and

blah blah blah blah blah. So you can see

that most of the company's stock

is is probably still overvaluing just

robo taxi unless of course you get a

massive surge

uh and you could get way more than 10%

of Uber that you would get somewhere

maybe around of US revenues 30% or

something like that right that's where

this could get really explosive like you

basically have to replace Uber uh and

the problem there is by that point, how

much competition do you get? You know,

is it going to be like are you still

making $15 a ride on average? The

average taxi rides 15. You know,

obviously some are going to be 50, some

are going to be five, right? So, it's

just an averaging thing. Uh and and I

would actually argue Teslas would be

great for longer distance because

they're so good at driving on the

highways. But anyway, the problem that

you also have is this does include these

sort of rich estimates for energy. So,

if I just have these energy estimates

for a moment, that's going to take $60.

Not $60. That's going to take How much

is that going to take out of this?

6930170.

That took about 40 $39 out. That takes

about $39 back out, right? So, you're

kind of already building in some pretty

decent assumptions at the price where it

currently is. Now, if we go wild here

and let's just leave in the high energy

and let's say that Tesla can do, you

know, there isn't a lot of margin

compression and we could do 30% of the

business that Uber does at a 30% margin.

You know, you don't get the price

compression yet or whatever, whatever,

whatever. That could be huge for the

stock. You know, this could pump you.

you could get $200 share value at 30% of

Uber's US market share. It's it's it's

an interesting argument, right? But it

shows you just how much work you have to

do to get there. Because again, think

about it this way. If Tesla did 1

million Uber Uber rides at $15 a piece,

it'd be $15 million of rides.

That's nothing. Like Uber's doing

somewhere on 12 billion. They're doing

like a billion rides a month. A billion

rides per month. I don't even think I

could do the math on that on this

calculator. I can't. A billion rides per

month would work out well. I could have

done that in my head. I guess that would

work out to about 33 million rides a

day.

That means every hour in the US they're

doing 1.3 million rides. That seems

wild. Anyway, okay. So, let's see uh

what some of your comments are here.

Tesla will get permits at red states.

Cool. How many of your drivers are in

red states would be the next question,

right? So like how many Uber rides of

the uh $90 billion of total available

robo taxi or taxi revenue Uber makes in

the United States in a year, how much of

that is in red versus blue? That would

be worth looking at, right? Uh mind you

that Uber is also in 70 different

countries. So you the TAM is very huge,

right? Uh, somebody says, "I've been

watching your previous videos. Just want

to say pretty impressive." Oh, that's

awesome. Well, thank you. I'm I'm making

a Tesla video right now, so we'll have

to talk about other recommendations

later. Uh, let's see here. I want to see

some of these other somebody here says

Tesla to 8,000 per share by 2032. Let's

go. I have an opinion that uh rates will

be zero and potentially will be at

negative rates in 2032. So, I I don't I

don't uh I'm not surprised by that. Uh

somebody says you need to go to Austin

to test this out. I'm not going to

Austin unless they invite me. Uh you

have to be on like their weight list and

their their fancy thing here. I I would

do it. Uh it'd be I don't Do I really

want to go to Austin? I don't know that

I want to go to Austin. Um I could trip

it, I guess. Let's see here. Somebody

So, somebody here says, "I disagree with

your robo taxi evaluation for 10% of

Uber with scale and labor cost. Robo

taxi is three to four times higher." No,

no, no, no. You're you're forgetting

that I'm Okay, I want to be crystal

clear about this. I'm not including the

labor costs. I'm saying $90 billion of

Uber revenue is the entire taxi value

that they do in the United States in a

year approximately. That's not their

revenue where they already pay labor.

That's the total bill. The bill. Okay.

I'm not taking what Uber made in revenue

after they paid the workers or shared it

with people. I'm taking the total damn

number. Okay. Total. Okay. And then I'm

I'm literally taking that generous total

and I'm only taking 30% off for Tesla's

costs. So, I think I'm being very

generous here. Now, to actually get as

many rides as Uber does, well, you're

going to need vehicles, right? I mean,

in order to do, you know, a million

rides, I mean, if they're doing what, 33

million a day, they're doing a million

rides an hour. Damn, you need you need

like a million robo taxis out there

working 24/7 probably. Uh, which is

fine. You could do that, but it's going

to take your production a year or two to

really like actually create that many

robo taxis, assuming you have the

licensing or whatever else, right? The

problem though, and and this is the

biggest risk for robo taxis, is taxi

revenue isn't that large. Remember, when

you sell somebody a car at a 20% margin,

you're making 7,000 bucks. 78 7

to$10,000, maybe even more if you get a

Model S or Plaid. If you sell somebody a

taxi ride,

you know, every time you get a $15 ride,

you're making five. It's like the

margins are small, so you need to make

it up in massive volumes. And that's

where eventually you wonder like, well,

could Zuks and Whimo compete, but they

don't have the manufacturing piece.

That's one of the benefits that Tesla

has is manufacturing. Somebody says,

Kevin, how do you figure in the Lyft

acquisition? Well, I actually think it

would be very smart for Tesla to buy

Lyft because if they bought Lyft, they

would immediately have rides. Like,

nobody has to go download the Tesla app

to get a ride. They could do it through

the Lift app and then a Tesla shows up,

right? That would be fantastic.

Uh, let's see here. Let's see what some

of your other comments are. Tesla is

slowly turning into a services company.

Well, it ain't so far at all a services

company. In fact, my estimate on this

sheet right here has Tesla at $137

million of service revenue. And if I

remove robo taxi since this is just an

idea right now, uh that would be uh out

of the $177 billion of total revenue

that you we're sorting writing writing

up over here. Oh, sorry. Uh services are

actually only 6.8 billion. So 6.8

divided by 177. 6.8 divided by 177, not

including robo taxis. Services make up

like 3 to 4% of Tesla's revenue right

now. So, it's really hard to argue right

now that Tesla's a service company. I

get it because of, you know, insurance

and and the ideas of where we can go in

the future. Uh, so let's see what else

here.

Uber resets reviews. That's true. And

that's a scam, but they definitely do

that. Well, I shouldn't say they

definitely do that. is my opinion based

on what I've heard from Uber drivers or

people who work with Uber that they just

reset your review. Uh does that mean

that's 100% true? I don't know. I can't

fact check. But yes, I have heard that

they kind of reset the reviews and

that's why you never get into an Uber

with less than like a 4.8 star review.

It's not cuz they're good drivers.

It's because of it's a human business

and uh and and uh you know people people

just get a get a little reset or doodle

and it's over.

Somebody says, "Your analysis doesn't

matter. The market is emotions-based."

Well, that's true. The market in the

short term is emotions-based.

But as a long-term investor, I like

looking at a company like Tesla and

saying, "Okay, well, when is it valued

below my fundamentals, and that's when I

just start salivating."

Uh, let's see here. Somebody writes,

"One million cars times 30 rides per day

times 365 times 5year estimated life of

a car." smiley face. Well, I mean,

again, I don't we don't even have to

multiply that far. 30 rides per day, I

think, would be too little because that

would be 30. What are we doing? That's

30. Oh, maybe not. 30 million a day.

That's about what Uber's doing, right?

Yeah. Yeah. I think because we were

saying 33 million. Okay. Yeah, that

could work. So, 30. Yeah. Yeah. I mean,

that's that's just like the math we were

doing, which is uh Uber's doing about a

bill uh rides in the US per month. Works

out to about 33 mil. So, yeah. Okay. No,

no, no. I I I think you're just sort of

back uh like running off of some of the

numbers that we were talking about.

Yeah, that's fair. That's a good way to

put it.

So, let's see here. Uh

somebody says, "Super slim margins."

Yes, I agree with that.

It is a very a super uh nominal margin

business. This is true. Tesla needs to

expand insurance. Yeah, they will.

That'll come.

Uh let's see.

I think that's all I got on Tesla.

I mean, I'm looking at the rest of your

comments here. Why not factor in Tesla

current multiple? After all, it will

always trade rich. No, it won't. Tesla

does not always trade rich. It

absolutely doesn't always trade rich.

Two years ago, I was trading for like a

one peg, you know. It definitely does

not always trade rich. Uh, so that's

that's a very very flawed mentality of

looking at fundamental analysis. If you

want to say that it's always going to

trade for a four or five peg, by all

means, go for it. I'm not going to put

my money on those pegs. Now, I'm not

saying like, oh my gosh, go sell. I'm

not That's not what I'm saying. I'm

saying new money, right? Uh, anyway. All

right. Uh, three members of the Iranian

Navy killed an Israeli air strike. Oo,

yikes.

That's my Tesla take. Why not advertise

these things that you told us here? I

feel like nobody else knows about this.

We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes. Congratulations, man.

You have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you. Kevin Praath

there, financial analyst and YouTuber.

Meet Kevin. Always great to get your

take.