What the Fed JUST Said.

what did Jerome Powell just say uh

nothing unusual in fact this is

fantastic news and I will break down

exactly what he did say but what we

heard today was just fantastic news for

potentially the stock market rally just

continuing mostly because think about

the Catalyst that we have this week

tomorrow we have the FED speaking in the

house today was the Senate I mostly

expect we're going to get exactly the

same kind of discussion we had today

tomorrow so really you don't really have

a negative Catalyst tomorrow the next

Catalyst the market is really going to

pay attention to are CPI release figures

on Thursday morning 711 that's going to

be with an expectation month over month

of 0.1 core month over month. 2

year-over-year

3.1% and year-over-year core

3.4% uh so that'll be Thursday Friday

we'll get our data on PPI so for PPI

we're going to be look looking at uh 0.1

on the month over Monon 2 on the month

over Monon core uh as well as forx trade

and then a final demand year-over-year

2.3 year-over-year core 2.5 so we're

expecting sort of soft inflationary data

Thursday and Friday and that's really

what jpow here highlighted we got fed

Bingo literally on him being asked what

he thinks about the potential that he's

going to get fired which was really just

sort of clutch in terms of all right

classic way to get fed Bingo but here

are the basic bottom lines of what we

heard today the labor market has cooled

considerably back to pre-pandemic

levels that and along with the quote

that the labor market now seems to be

quote fully Back in Balance it's really

interesting I haven't actually heard

jpow tell us that the market is now or

the labor market is now fully Back in

Balance I thought that was actually

somewhat useful and uh interesting to

listen to because it suggests that their

work on the labor market is basically

done see I'm trying to give you what's

different here and I haven't heard that

one before in my opinion that's bullish

and it's slowly setting up for rate Cuts

if we were to expect a July rate cut we

would have had to have seed planting now

the most seed planting we got was from

Nick T at the Wall Street Journal and it

was just his speculation there were no

quotes from the fed or implications that

the FED cared and we know last week when

J was talking to Sarah

eizen that uh we didn't get any kind of

indications of rate Cuts coming and in

fact today we literally wrote down when

we were playing fed Bingo which is on

screen right here we wrote down does not

suggest when it will be appropriate to

cut we even said no hint of July cut

both of those ended up being true on fed

Bingo not a surprise though no hints

here on a cut means we're really not

setting up for a July cut so unless

something weird happens even if we get a

soft uh CPI or PPI report this week I

really don't suspect we're going to end

up seeing any kind of potential for a

July cut it's just not likely even with

a good uh inflation read now uh keep in

mind Thursday Friday are the inflation

reads I want to look at the world

interest rate probability what's up dude

you just spawned in out of nowhere bro

uh World interest rate probability so

the probability right now per the market

uh Jack what number is that what's the

probability of a rate cut in September

tell the Mike 0

0.745 all right perfect so about 74%

chance of getting a rate cut uh how

about November what do we got for

November what's that number right

there

1.88 okay good job and then what about

uh

December 1.9

seven8 good job dude all right perfect

that's the market implied uh trajectory

right now of rate Cuts uh I do want to

quickly uh before we hit some of the

other things that J pal mentioned just

really really I have to do this I have

to do this I have to shout out that

freaking rally in Tesla let's go what

direction are those mountains going

buddy it's up and it's going at 20 it's

going up that's what we want to hear

high five right here let's go right

after JP's done talking but you started

seeing this move right after after I

think honestly we're clearing the path

here to go into 295 I moved to a

different strike price I took a few

tendies on some call options that I had

but just this morning I opened a few

positions if you're not part of the

stocks and sight group yet where you

could get all my buy sell trade alerts

no guarantees we can make profit but we

tried to uh this is just an example of

my Tesla call we opened this one during

the meeting uh and uh this one I think

we opened yesterday or whatever the day

before anyway I closed both of those to

move to a different strike so let's go

thank you so much JP make sure you're

part of the stocks group again not every

trade aler is something you should copy

can't guarantee you should make money uh

definitely there are times that there

there are down trades so keep that in

mind there's always a risk with trading

but uh most importantly you want to look

at how can Trends affect your trading

portfolio and what can you do with them

okay perfect so let's take a look at

some of the other things we heard from

Jal meetkevin.com by the way uh for

those courses on building your wealth uh

stocks and sight comes with the trade

alerts all of them come with the courses

uh the course member live streams Okay

so as far as uh rate hikes again

reiterated no likely uh rate Rises

instead the more likely path is rate

Cuts something I haven't heard him talk

about before was that the U uh the FED

talked about how they issued a cease and

assist on uh evolve bank which if you

remember they're involved with the whole

yada disaster with synapse we also by

Jack uh we uh a lot of a lot of the

similar regular discussion about what

we've heard regarding supply and demand

shocks what caused inflation that's not

a big deal uh one negative line was we

heard quote do you agree any deviation

from 2% inflation should be addressed

now J pal said absolutely which was a

little bit more hawkish but something to

keep in mind is JP Morgan's AI model on

Powell's discussion indicated that he

was quote slightly less hawkish than

usual uh that's really because I think

that's he's starting to transition into

we're about to go into a cutting regime

it's probably to be November December

although you did have a lot ofl you did

have at least one politician who

aggressively tried to argue that drum

Powell should not cut before the

election because it would appear

political well guess what he's probably

not going to cut before the election

because guess when the November fed

meeting is two days after the

election yeah November 7th how

convenient don't worry we won't be

cutting before the election we'll cut

right after the election uh Leisure

Hospitality I thought it was interesting

he mentioned that uh you would expect a

Slowdown in Leisure hospit Leisure and

Hospitality hiring since they were so

behind that they finally caught up and

he also mentioned that you'd uh rather

see uh uh you know Dr job broad-based

job creation so far we've had sort of

this narrowing in job creation in the

market and that's not super good uh and

so they're acutely aware of that which

is also dovish

uh he shut down the idea that corporate

greed caused inflation talks more about

supply and demand IM balances which is

the economic answer he also shut down

the idea that corporate uh like

corporations uh you know unfairly boost

housing prices instead he suggested look

it's you know they're they're a legal

buyer of homes they're really a small

percentage of home buyers it's a small

issue and his job is the whole economy

uh he also said that this was an

interesting line that I thought was

pretty doish he said quote we see even

more risk today than we saw in March

regarding unemployment and the labor

market weakening for a long time we

feared the greater risk was not being

able to meet our inflation Target now

there's a greater balance between the

two but he also said there was a greater

balance between the two in March the

difference is now we saying we see more

risk today than we saw in March about

the labor market so again more of a

dovish pow here as far as immigration I

think he gave a fair economic Point here

he says in the long run immigration

probably doesn't affect inflation

however in the short run immigration

ironically might help inflation because

you have more labor which could reduce

wages and reduce the pressure on let's

say Services cost now obviously that's

not necessarily sort of the uh American

answer the American answer given by JD

Vance which is of course the political

answer uh was oh well you know wouldn't

we want wages to go up so Americans can

make more money yes that's the American

politician answer yes that's what people

want to hear uh but is that actually uh

better for inflation no of course not uh

so this these were very fair question or

answers here by

JP uh and of course we need more good

inflation data which a lot of folks

expect we're going to get this week uh

in fact a lot of folks are looking and

saying hey you know what uh you might

want to hedge uh these inflation reports

because we expect them to come in so low

maybe you want to hedge and go short

because if they come in hot the market

could be caught flat footed I don't know

I'm not I don't think I'm going to hedge

CPI I mean if we had a really bad CPI

report I'll just buy puts at 6:30 in the

morning and and ride the trend but I

don't I don't think I'm going to you

know pay the premiums to hedge going

into CPI I'm usually not an event-based

Trader though unless it's jpow honestly

like I feel like I could read jpow like

a freaking B at this point and I'm not

trying to like suggest some

overconfidence here I just think my

hours in on analyzing this guy uh are

are are very very high uh and again that

doesn't mean we're always right but uh I

think it's pretty easy to trade J palal

frankly uh I think it's again crystal

clear right now that we're probably

going to get a rapid rate decline regime

starting in November my crystal ball

today would say we're looking at 25 bips

in November uh and then every single

meeting there after 25 bips uh so that

way uh you're probably down I mean how

many fed meetings you have eight plus

November December 10 by the end of 25

You' be down potentially as much as 2

and a half% would be my take now that's

not the fed's projection uh fomc

schedule let me see here because I want

to look at their projection their

projection wait let me guess their

projection is probably 4% my projection

at three at 2 and A2 coming down would

be 5 and quarter would be closer to like

3% on average right they're probably at

4% for next year they are yeah they're

at 4.1 for next year so I I personally

think we're going to get more rate Cuts

than that and we'll get sort of a

consistent 25 25 25 25 I don't think

we're going to get any like you know 50

basis point Cuts or whatever uh but what

I will say is um you know if you don't

yet already follow me on uh X make sure

you follow me there because I've been

yapping about this uh uh not only

ascending alerts on the calls that I've

been buying but I've also been yapping

on X uh Tesla stock is about to test the

258 level if it breaks 258 which I think

it will 295 is the next easy stop for

Tesla so check that out I've also got

some calls printing right now I'm up 21%

on 23% I'm sorry on $90,000 worth of

calls I just bought like 20 minutes ago

so let's

go again I send those alerts to

everybody in the stocks and site group

no guarantees you got to look at the

signal and decide do I agree and

disagree what you do with your portfolio

is totally up to you it's not designed

to copy it's just designed to be uh an

indicator of kind of where Kevin's head

is and emotion is and sometimes they're

wrong like I I really thought Nvidia

would be rallying more right here it's a

little flat right now I'm surprised

Nvidia is not picking up a little bit uh

but that's okay my Tesla tendies are way

offsetting my move on uh Nvidia anyway

thank you so much for watching uh as

always let's go ahead and we're going to

play the good old disclaimer just close

the door

exactly uh and appreciate y'all go to

meet kevin.com to learn more meet

kevin.com Mastermind if you want to be

part of an exclusive Mastermind think

about even having a one-on-one option

there not not sure yet so TBD but anyway

uh let's go ahead and play this thank

you so much overall I'd say bullish on

the FED here kind of expect uh some

happiness over the next uh 24 hours and

if we get a bullish CPI PPI read

honestly just up from there in my

opinion eventually we will get bad data

which could be earnings coming up and

that will drive markets down we are due

for a correction in markets I'm not Tom

Lee Perma here okay I'm Mr flipflop get

it right never forget it even though I'm

a licensed financial adviser real estate

broker and becoming a stock broker this

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ETF and hold long positions in various

Securities potentially including those

mentioned in this video however I have

no relationship to any issuers other

than house act nor am I presently acting

as a market

maker Tesla keeps going let's go

by marles we're going to 295 baby let's

go see you canot advertise these things

that you told us here I feel like nobody

else knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your

take even though I'm a licensed

financial adviser licensed real estate

broker and becoming a stock broker this

video is not personalized advice for you

it is not tax legal or otherwise

personalized advice Taylor to you this

video provides generalized perspective

information and commentary any third

party content I show shall not be deemed

endorsed by me this video is not and

shall never be deemed reasonably

sufficient information for the purposes

of evaluating a security or investment

decision any links or promoted products

are either paid affiliations or products

or Services we may benefit from I also

personally operate an actively managed

ETF I may personally hold or otherwise

hold long or short positions in various

Securities potentially including those

mentioned in this video however I have

no relationship to any issuer other than

house act nor am I Pres presently acting

as a market maker make sure if you're

considering investing in house Haack to

always read the PPM at house.com