THIS could END the Stock Market Euphoria.

hey everyone me Kevin here this is

really interesting uh take a look at

this it's one of the posts I just made

on eack if you haven't heard about it

yet go to

eac.org but here's what's really

interesting list listen to this Goldman

Sachs is estimating that $95 billion

have flown into US stocks in

2023 and so a comparison that I wrote

over here is that Elon Musk sold around

24 billion dollars of Tesla in

2022 the stock market only saw barely

four times that in

2023 so the entire US Stock Market in

2023 has only seen seen four times what

Elon sold in 2022 now obviously that

either means Elon sold a lot or the

stock market's getting very few inflows

and the reality is while it's probably a

mix of both Elon did sell L the reality

is it's been really tough for people to

allocate new money to the stock market

because why would you when there's so

many uncertainties Russia Ukraine Israel

inflation is it coming down is it going

to go back up is this 1974 all over

again and we just walking into getting

Paul vulker of course my thesis is no

because back then we left the gold

standard we came off price caps we had a

horrible uh uh how should I say

management of monetary policy following

the leaving of the gold standard I'm not

saying monetary and fiscal policies any

better today okay there's a lot that

leaves to be desired over there it's

just that conditions today are virtually

the opposite of what we faced back then

conditions back then were that inflation

expectations were skyrocketing through

the roof because people didn't have any

faith at all in the government or our

monetary policy today at least there's

some Faith again I'm not saying it's

high and I'm not here to shill for the

government of the fed I'm just saying

inflation expectations are so low both

the bond Market's allocation of

expectations but also sentiment surve

inflation expectations briefly spiked

after Israel but have plummeted since in

fact if we look at the 5-year break even

for example which is the bond Market's

expectations for inflation forget about

consumers or individuals sitting about

2.2% yeah they've come up a slight bit

because of a tension off of the coast of

Yemen but we're still near Year's lows

why because yes even though oil prices

have started ticking up a little bit and

there are trade fears that we are going

to see some temporary inflationary pops

on Headline reads because of tension in

the Middle East again driving oil prices

up the big picture is that there's a lot

of rationale that says nobody wanted to

invest in stocks in 2023 because there

were so many uncertainties and there

still are uncertainties and 2024 is an

election year so you also have those

uncertainties but consider this for a

moment we put all of that aside for a

moment consider this these money market

rates as interest rates come down or

going to come down as well at the same

time as those rates come down we are

going to see individuals look and say

well what did the stock market do in

2023 for people who aren't regularly

attuned to the stock market in 2023

and what they're going to see is oh my

gosh how did the NASDAQ 100 go up

53% in 2023 how did Tesla year to date

go up

137% coinbase stock year today

341 year to dat Microsoft

54% Apple year to date 55% point is

sitting out the stock Market in 2023 was

actually very punishing and if there's a

record amount of cash on the sidelines

there is a strong thesis that as long as

inflation continues to Trend down that

money will circulate into stocks in

2024 and that is leading Goldman Sachs

to say well as long as we don't then and

I well let me say that I'll tell you

what Goldman Sachs said in a moment I

just want to say this is all predicated

on not having a shock that leads to

larger unemployment because if we have

an unemployment shock we're probably

leaning more towards the recession and

there are the risks that right now

employment is heavily skewed towards

government health care and education

which there's a lot of government and

Healthcare as well so you're kind of at

late cycle employment gains which isn't

great because we wonder how long that's

sustainable and if those gains go away

do we potentially go to negative job

gains which is bad it's a recessionary

indicator and potentially self- fulfills

more unemployment a doom Loop Cycle One

layoff cycle leads to more layoff lay

offs and more layoffs and more layoffs

fortunately we've kind of had a lot of

layoffs behind us so hopefully we're not

going into that direction hopefully most

of the pain is behind us but that's a

risk but what Goldman here says is look

at Global inflation Trends Global

inflation Trends on a month over month

annualized on a core basis mind you and

a three-month annualized basis have

plummeted but not only have they

plummeted if you actually zoom into

these uh you'll find that Global

inflation is sitting at just 2.2 % for

the last 3 months annualized that's

basically at 2% Target and just 1.3% for

November now In fairness if you go a

little bit deeper and you look at what

JP Morgan said this morning for reli he

suggested hey hey we got to be careful

though because super core is still

running a little hot last 3month average

Super core which is taking out housing

and the housing disinflation we're

getting which is also a very volatile

metric super core is running hotter

closer to maybe four to 5% youo and

while it is true that's something we

want to pay attention to the broader

trend is down this is why also in the

Catalyst section if you jump down on

eack to Catalyst I talk about

multivariant core inflation and this is

where you can actually remove housing

and just see Services X housing when you

look at the United States and you

actually look at this trend you could

see that yes even though it's volatile

that red line trend is clearly down so

of course if you haven't been watching

eack yet make sure to go to ec.com you

can see some other Tesla up Ates and

some other news here as well but these

are some very interesting charts from

Goldman's Goldman Sachs and it explains

why Goldman is so optimistic about

actually risk assets going up that

they've raised their S&P 500 price

Target 9% in just the past four weeks

now keep in mind they're only looking at

three rate Cuts they think we're going

to get three rate Cuts in March May and

June of 25 basis Points each basically

three back-to-back Cuts but they think

the f is going to stop and pause there

and the reason they think the fed's

going to stop and pause there is because

the growth trajectory that Goldman has

uh is actually a lot higher than the

Bloomberg consensus that most banks and

economists think growth will only be

around 7% whereas Goldman suggests no we

think growth in 2024 will actually be 2%

which is actually really important for

earnings of US Stocks is that you have

growth now another thing that we could

potentially or should look at here is

the odds of getting five rate cuts that

would be bringing rates all the way down

to 4 to 4 and A4 per. the odds of

getting to that level by December of

20124 based on what the market is

pricing in right now five rate Cuts

ready for this

87.3% yeah so the market is pricing is

almost fully pricing in a full five rate

Cuts Goldman is suggesting three but

only because they think earnings will be

higher in the economy will be stronger

now unfortunately you know I like to be

balanced here and unfortunately there

there isn't a lot of bearishness to

cover right now the biggest bearishness

to cover is what's going on with the

houth so to balance this video out I'd

just like to point you also to e-hawk

hack.com where uh you actually I think I

had a whole piece on this yesterday here

it is houthi attacks are intensifying

this is a big deal you could read all

about this again ec.com it's totally

free like I don't make any money from it

it's just it's a great tool I love it

it's actually a great tool for us as

well because we have all our thoughts in

one place so we use it as a team tool

but we're like we may as well share with

the community but anyway why does this

matter well why do the houthi attacks

over here matter in this straight right

here that is 18 Mi wide at the thinnest

Point easy to launch attacks we have US

destroyers in the region shooting down

drones and involved in the defense of

shipping lanes but that still hasn't

stopped BP from saying for example you

know what we'll just go all the way

around the coast of Africa which

lengthens shipping time frames increases

costs it's why the shipping companies

are seeing their stocks go up like Zim

or MK or whatever because they're like

ah well they're just going to pass the

cost on to the consumer which is

inflationary or or you know their

customer but anyway if you look over

here about 12% of seedborn traded oil

and 8% of liquid uh liquified natural

gas passes through this area uh this is

a lot of an energy Market that goes

through here while it may not

necessarily be a supply concern for

everything like the straight of

Heros it it is a concern for Energy

prices and so that's why at least

recently through trades we're seeing

this Robble Bank had a thesis that if

the United States stops defending in

this area this could get a lot worse

they're right they could get worse if

the United States stopped defending here

but the US knows that and I wouldn't be

surprised if you actually get a step up

of defenses in this area in fact there's

talk about the United States authorizing

Australia to go to this region with

warships to help defend this shipping

route so we'll see but this will be

something everybody's paying attention

to in the near term anyway thanks so

much for watching I got a jet to uh a

big inspection and we'll see you soon

bye why not advertise these things that

you told us here I feel like nobody else

knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your

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