Why the Stock Market & Bitcoin is CRASHING.

hey everyone me Kevin here the stock

market is falling and in this video I'd

like to explain why uh first things

first while I wanted to make this video

yesterday I thought maybe today things

would recover a little bit and we can

kind of do a postmortem on what happened

yesterday and I'm over here in Florida

try to get this this flight training

done it's it's it's exhausting but I

still want to provide this value to you

and what I noticed yesterday uh as we

talked about in the course member live

streams as well is there are few things

happening uh first thing is you tend to

see a really substantial selloff at the

beginning of the day uh and then another

sell off at the end of the day uh this

was actually the paler bounce right here

I uh sent a trade alert on some call

options on which which we did have have

a nice rise here but it certainly wasn't

anywhere enough to make up for uh the

drop in the beginning of the day if you

were long holding and not just entering

on that line now today what's

fascinating is we have not stopped that

downsell uh from the opening now this

could reverse and we could get back here

but this is indicative of something

usually when we see markets that dump at

the beginning of the day and the end of

the day this doesn't just have to do

with paler usually it's indicative of

institutional selling this is the S&P

500 right here uh and you can see what's

happening right now relative to uh what

happened yesterday you had the am cell

midday sort of buy the dip uh and then

end of the day sell now why does that

matter well it's a sign of institutions

drisking look I have a lot of experience

uh with with Wall Street and on Wall

Street uh and I'll tell you it's it's

not a very fun place to be mostly

because you kind of have to do what's

good for business not necessarily what's

best for your Investments you on on Wall

Street kind of always have to be there

to encourage people to buy deposit more

funds and of course you have exposure to

the latest and greatest stock the

problem with that is it actually removes

your ability to have foresight for the

Market uh see foresight is actually

really unpopular in the short term right

because foresight would tell you that

when stocks are really eoric you

probably want to sell and go buy

something that's super bearish like

bonds right but doing that is really

unpopular and so institutions usually

don't do that so publicly I find this

every day you get institutions that send

their sort of bulls out onto the street

ah everything's fine everything's fine

go buy the dip but then behind the

scenes institutions are putting these C

orders that we see at am and p.m now of

course AM and PM have the highest

volatility so is it possible that retail

is only trading AM and PM as well I

don't think so I think you know it's

usually just institutions that are your

big AM and PM movers you know right

after market open right before Market

close mostly because the way you could

trade with an institution is you can

Mark orders as Market on close as an

example right so you'll put in your

order you'll take your day doing your

research and your work you put in your

orders for the end of the day and you

submit M them off and then you go home

uh and then right before the closing

bell in the last 15 minutes these orders

get executed so that's typical that's

one of the reasons why you see these

moves now why would institutions be

dumping that's sort of the big question

here is I mean you've got Robin Hood

down 10% well keep in mind that when the

stock market Falls retail investors stop

buying stocks as

much excuse me still a little under the

weather shouldn't have gone to China you

know I thought doing a documentary on

Wuhan would be a cool thing anyway uh so

when retail lowers their volume of

course Brokers uh like Robin Hood are

going to see lower volumes and so people

are trying to pre- price okay Market

down well Robin Hood will go down by a

magnifying effect because of their

exposure to making money off of the

market movements and usually as markets

go down people don't actually trade more

they trade less mostly because some of

their money has evaporated you know

drone Powell is going around with a

giant vacuum cleaner basically sucking

up extra liquidity but

let's talk about some of the other data

that's going on so just this morning we

had the Richmond uh fed manufacturing

and Philadelphia manufacturing reports

that came out now the Richmond fed one

was interesting because they said that

activity actually increased somewhat in

February uh but that was because of a

notable increase in shipments well

shipments mean old orders have finally

gone out the door so what is the forward

information say so their composite went

up because of the shipments issue or

benefit I guess but then on the future

index they write the

following the local business conditions

index remained at5 in February while the

index for future local business

conditions fell from 32 to 2 the Futures

index for shipments and new orders also

decreased substantially from 13 and 8 or

2 13 and 8 subst respectively so both of

those plummeted vendor backlog times

also decreased so that's not great so

all of that kind of went in the Poopers

okay well what else did we get this

morning because that report on the

headline if you just read the headline

it'd be like oh it looks like it did a

little bit better than expected oh boy

go by the tip uh but then when you

actually look at the detail it's like

wait a minute the old stuff is good the

new stuff is bad okay so that's Richmond

fed but then we also got the

Philadelphia fed report this morning we

covered all this in the course member

Liv stream which keep in mind we've got

a large like this is going to be the

largest price increase ever at the end

of this month uh for the courses so go

to me kevin.com if you want to be in you

pay once you get lifetime access and

we're probably going to be doing mini

masterminds later in this year no

guarantees but it'll be for course

members only and the goal is to get the

entry price up to 800 to 1,000 bucks

right now it's a fraction of that so

check that out over at meetkevin.com

you'll be really happy if if you join

sooner rather than later and you hey we

were live this morning for over an hour

and a half uh you know just talking

about what's going on as the Market

opens so if you still want those those

Market open Live streams you can get

those in the course member live streams

every single day we I even do weekends

uh really just trying to provide as much

value as I can to course members and you

just get you know raw Kevin every day

raw raw dog Kevin oh

boy uh anyway so Philadelphia Federal

Reserve Bank uh indicated this morning

the following uh manufacturing activity

declined this month according to firms

responding to February's uh

non-manufacturing business Outlook the

index for General activity at firm at

the firm level new orders and sales and

revenue all declined into the negative

territory firms continue to report

overall increases in full and part-time

employment that's actually good uh and

price indices suggest little change in

the prices of firms own goods and

services but continue to indicate an

increase in the price for inputs so this

is what I've been saying for for a year

now is that companies don't have the

pricing power to keep raising prices on

you with the exception of you know food

and eggs and and insurance they they do

because uh well out of the whole basket

of everything Insurance substantially

lags and then you know we generally look

at food as very volatile just because

Supply chains because of bird flu and

things can can be very volatile same

with energy um but for for most goods

and services you have pricing issues in

fact if you look at the Philly fed one

going back to this one it actually says

the average growth rate of prices Edge

down look at Home Depot Home Depot is

forecasting growth of 1% in comp sales

inflation's going to be higher than 1%

so they are actually shrinking on a real

basis an inflation adjusted basis

continuing on uh they indicate that this

was the first negative read in

employment since April uh or sorry in in

the employment work week so usually when

the average work week Falls that's a

precursor to people getting laid off

layoffs happen last you know people keep

going on CNBC they're like but but the

economy is good because our employment

so when unemployment weeks you are

already at the bottom of the stock

market that's by

time uh current indicators declined to

the worst level since April of

2023 uh and we had the future Regional

activity index turned slightly negative

its first negative read since August so

the Philadelphia fed report this morning

was bad the Richmond fed report this

morning was bad those are just from this

morning last week's S&P PMI report that

I covered was terrible it was really bad

like you should look it up if you

haven't seen it yes S&P PMI report on

business you could literally just Google

that uh and uh and you'll find the

February here you just go there see S&P

Global flash us PMI report pop that open

please I encourage you this is your

homework read it I'll just read you the

first line because I've already covered

this I don't want to sound redundant but

just as a reminder us business activity

growth came close to stalling in

February

so no why is the stock market going down

wow maybe because institutions are

actually reading these reports and while

their minions are going on CNBC telling

you everything is okay they're actually

in the back office is going oh

look there's something you have to

remember and I'm not saying this to be

you know a bear on on Trump but there's

something you have to remember about

Trump

policies Trump

policies are growth negative at the

beginning growth positive at the end so

think about that for a moment what is

what does that actually mean what am I

saying when you fire people even because

of waste I'm not making a political

argument here I'm just saying fact of

matter is when you fire people growth

contracts simple when you tariff tariffs

are terrible economic policy and they're

nowhere near good enough to help off set

our tax revenues but that's okay it's

not political it's just simply stating

both of those together are growth

negative policies uncertainty around you

know what's going on with Ukraine or

whatever or you know are we going to

turn the Gaza Strip into uh uh you know

a new monoco uh these are all

uncertainties that are growth negative

right because we look and we go oh my

gosh what's going to happen what's going

to happen what's going to happen we

don't know Rana had an interesting

argument he's like look Trump if if you

just said like cuz ran is a Democrat

he's like look if you just said this is

what the tariffs are going to be great

then we can plan for it but what's

actually happening it's a sort of like

Hey we're going to do 25% tariffs ah

just kidding you know we're going to

have more troops at the Canadian border

uh oh yeah you know what yeah we're

actually still working retaliatory

tariffs on on uh Canada and be like proo

um this is not this is not to be

anti-trump it's just simply to make the

the statement that that uh confusion uh

does create uncertainties which make

people uh less confident in buying and

they are growth negative for the time

being now consider that for a moment

growth negative at first eventually is

supposed to be offset by what well tax

cuts right let's get some water here

Florida tap water

baby all right so if you have growth

negative policy that hits first later

the goal is to get growth positive

policy but that takes going through

Congress right you have to get your tax

policy through Congress you have to get

your tax cuts through Congress what is

this okay I thought I only had tea and

decaf coffee oh I I need real coffee uh

but anyway thanks Marriott uh tax policy

is going to take a while to actually

implement the tax policy won't actually

probably come until uh we get to 2026

that's probably when we'll actually see

our tax policy so if we have to wait

until 2026 to see growth positive

regulatory Cuts more certainty and tax

cuts well you know by then the economy

could be in a deep dark recession now

I'm not praying for that because I think

that's very bad uh I do think there are

ways you can Hedge for that uh

specifically I'm a big fan of um bonds

uh TLT I think TLT you know $95 call

options 2026 uh and $100 call options

2027 are quite interesting as a hedge

for this you have to look at them as a

hedge because look bonds do great when

the economy does poorly and uh you know

the economy only does poorly two out of

every seven years so statistically if

you were going to throw a dart you're

more likely to hit a bull market right

that said this latest data has moved me

from a four and a half on the bull bear

scale or bare bull scale down to like a

two and a half the latest that is bad

but what about apple apple and it's 500

billion investment let me tell you about

that scam and now for a message from our

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by the way I have four different cell

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traveling like this for work I want to

make sure I always have cell service

anyway let's talk about the Apple scam

so look I like Apple I like Apple a lot

I think they're a great company I'm a

big fan of their

leadership but when I heard Apple say

that they're going to invest $500

billion over the next 4 years in in data

centers to support their you know

private cloud data centers which isn't

really AI Cloud uh that would be you

know these these AI data centers I mean

I suppose they could be AI for like the

internal neural Nets that they want to

use but they really want to run these on

your devices so I suppose it would be

more like protected Cloud uh for uh you

know things you want to upload on your

iCloud or whatever and then

audited uh servers data centers that are

protected these are somewhat different

from GPU based data centers they might

be more uh you know hard drive based

data centers uh but they'll probably

also be some GPU data centers might be a

mix of both but Apple made this

announcement that uh they want to create

20,000 jobs over the next four years

ideally you know sort of exactly matched

with that Trump Administration it's a

bend the knee is what it is right I mean

meta bent the knee for Trump and their

stock went up like 25% and so you know

people are kind of like oh boy let's go

Trump because it makes our stock go up

that's fine again I I'm not here to be

political but what I am here to do is

look and I I was joking about this with

course members this morning I'm like you

know the meeting between Apple and Trump

probably went something like oh hey

Trump we'll invest all of our cash flow

into uh the United States please please

don't terrif

us and this is what they did kind of in

2018 where you had this Chinese tff war

going on and the Chinese sword in

initiatives and Donald Trump Exempted

Apple from a lot of the tariffs and

actually ended up giving CEO Tim Cook or

CEO Tim Cook ended up giving Trump one

of the first of the new models of Max uh

that were released because of this sort

of relationship that they were able to

earn and the exempting that Apple got

for terorists which is Mission critical

for them because of how much they

manufacture overseas and then also how

much they sell overseas but then I look

and I go uh well wait a second Apple if

I look at your balance sheet and current

assets you all have about $65 billion

which is cool but it's a far cry from

$500 billion so then I'm like all right

well what's their cash flow and that's

where I figured it out their yearend

cash flow is about $120 billion which is

fantastic but that basically means they

are saying hey Mr Trump we will invest

105% of our next four years of cash flow

or 100% of our next four years of you

know projected cash flow back into the

United States you know Trump's probably

like can you all do

more you know but but this is this is

actually a good thing right because you

have a president who is encouraging

businesses to invest in America and you

know a lot of people see that is very

good you create American

jobs uh at some point those data centers

will create more American demand for

goods and services restaurants around

those data centers the construction

industry that gets supported there I'm a

big fan of of those sort of

announcements from the private sector

they're actually not too dissimilar from

the Biden Administration announcing the

chips act and investments into America

right except rather than the government

making the investment announcements it's

private Enterprise doing that uh for the

benefit of them potentially being exempt

from tariffs this is this is the goal of

trump the the whole point here is to try

to get businesses to invest in America

so I see the point in the short term it

does create some uncertainty stuff so uh

you know is the Apple investment announc

a scam no it's just it implies they have

all the money now and they're really

just promising their future cash flow

and I personally don't think that

promising your future cash flow for

Investments is a Sound Investment

decision because you just don't know

what's going to happen between now and

then but that's just my take okay so

then

Microsoft you know this was an

interesting one Microsoft came out and

said oh uh you know there are some

people in the rumor mill talking about

our our us cutting leases which I made a

video on this and they basically said so

the news is true but uh we're going to

reinvest that money into something else

see I personally actually think that a

lot of these companies are going to

realize they've overbuilt llm

Investments you know language model

Investments and I actually think you're

going to see a big movement towards

other types of capex so I think they'll

still spend the capex but it'll go to

things like actuators and batteries for

Rob robotics rather than just data

centers for llms that's my take uh but

uh you know something to look at as well

just some other data points here

Microsoft uh while it fell yesterday due

to these lease cancellations and Nvidia

was down 3.1% on the news it you do have

Nvidia earnings coming up and I actually

think Nvidia earnings will be quite

bullish mostly because they're like

never not bullish when have you ever

heard of Jensen go up and not tell you

about the multi-trillion dollar

investment opportunity other R you are

going to get a bullish Jensen

hall now are you going to get the same

levels of growth

projections I don't know I guess we'll

see usually Nvidia beats and raises so

the Market's already expecting a beat in

race will it be enough you know Home

Depot stocks down today and they

technically beat but their growth was

trash I mean to some extent they're even

expecting negative growth so I'm not I'm

not like purely optimistic

uh now that said am I you know a mega

bear well I always just like to use my

bear bull scale I also really like to

take a sip of this coffee but it's too

hot right now so I have been uh under a

five on the bare bull scale so you know

one is sell everything 10 is all in on

margin I've been under a five since last

summer now that's been disappointing

because to some extent that means I've

been more bearish than I should have

been during the uh the the Trump

enthusiasm face which was you know an

incredible

run

but when we actually look at the

underlying fundamental data we look and

say okay is it possible that we pulled

forward a lot of production and goods

and service spending in anticipation

that everything's going to be great in

2025 and then all of a sudden 2025 hits

and it's like oh more uncertainty tariff

uncertainty tax uncertainty the benefits

aren't here yet of course I mean we knew

this we read this like a book before

happen uh pricing power is limited like

at some point the Slowdown will hit and

you know if institutions are just

talking about oh well you know jobs are

still good then I think they're just

again sending their lying Minions on

CNBC to tell you that uh everything is

fine when the reality is it's not and

when you look at hedge fund exposure to

the mag 7 right now people are actually

joking that it's going to be called the

lag seven because hedge fund exposure to

the mag 7 right now is at the lowest uh

level that we've seen in years

uh people are talking about uh how uh

even Baba sold off after they announced

$53 billion of infrastructure spent and

they see that as potentially a negative

Catalyst for NVIDIA although Baba's

actually popped up today Baba's been

doing great since they're they're you

know doubling down on AI so a lot of

people actually on the flip side are

taking the opposite side of that trade

and they're saying nah man all in on

China baby if the us is going to slow

down we'll go to China that's fine I I I

I'll just be transp parent I'm not I'm

not as well educated on uh on China so I

try to stay away from uh opining on

everything Chinese uh Starbucks we saw

cutting jobs Southwest cutting some jobs

uh hims losing its access to I could

probably never pronounce it right but

semaglutide semaglutide that's not so

great for him uh that's been one of

their highest margin products and

highest like I mean I think they charge

somewhere around 199 bucks a month to

have somebody come in uh and be a member

and have ACC to semaglutide through HMS

whereas they charge normal members like

$39 to $59 a month I believe it is so

you know you're getting a lot more

margin over there but you know we've

we've done a whole analysis on him in

the course member live streams you can

go check out uh where we actually go

deep on this but anyo uh

the the uh current latest that we have

from Trump on tariffs is that Canada and

Mexico tariffs are going to be quote on

time now and moving along very rapidly

those are quotes from Trump following an

initial delay until March 4th which is

already next week which is crazy means

that coupon expiration is coming up at

the end of this month already that's

wild February 28 that's going to be a

big one it's going to be the one of the

biggest price hikes uh in a very very

long time and it's mostly because as we

start initiating doing um uh local

meetups later this year uh we uh the

entry price is going to be a lot higher

uh Bond uh oh yeah and then there's this

talk about uh TLT being at some of its

highest levels of short interest in

quite a while uh creating what a lot of

people argue is is a potential buy the

dip opportunity in in bonds but then

again I have exposure to bond so I I

don't want to sound biased but I found

that very interesting that short

interest is so high probably because

it's made a lot of money you know you

shorted bonds you made a lot of money uh

now another thing that I'd like to talk

about is U micro strategy and Michael

sailor so Michael sailor bought like2

billion of Bitcoin again at somewhere

around $95 billion and it basically did

absolutely nothing for the stock which I

thought was very very interesting

because you know much like other people

people are like huh usually when Michael

saor buys Bitcoin goes up but that

didn't happen right now and I think

that's because again the

institutions they're not being

transparent to your face in that they're

just secretly de grossing substantially

and that includes de grossing on whether

they have altcoin exposure Bitcoin

exposure whatever it's just it's

basically all turning into

sell which could be very shortterm it's

entirely possible that we get Nvidia

with some Banger earnings tomorrow and

everything just goes back to the moon

and we go back to normal and this was

just a short-term by the dip opportunity

fine the reports that we're reading the

pmis uh Richmond Philly feds uh

University of Michigan sentiment and

some of the other data we're getting

they don't necessarily agree with that

but hey who knows may maybe that'll

spawn new

investment but I think one of the

reasons why Bitcoin didn't actually move

up substantially

after the sale or $2 billion buys

because you basically just match that

with another $2 billion of sales see

that doesn't even necessarily have to be

on the public Bitcoin Market it could be

done through what we call dark pools

which I know I'm going to get a lot of

people Kevin it's blockchain it can't be

dark pool dark poool doesn't mean that

it's not like that that we'll never see

it uh it just means that it's not done

through your open and public market so

for example let's say you have gold

Sachs that says hey we've helped yall do

so much in in in bond offerings uh we

actually were look you know we want to

help you with another Bond offering

Goldman um micro strategy we've made so

much money off y'all in commissions uh

by the way we have about $2 billion of

Bitcoin that we want to offload and I'm

just speculating here right but I just

want to explain how it could work we

have $2 billion of Bitcoin that we want

to offload uh next time you guys raise

money and want to buy Bitcoin can we

just sell it to you directly so that's

still going to appear like an onchain

transaction but it's not going to appear

like a you know a giant Candlestick on

on the uh public pricing markets for

Bitcoin because it could just be an

agreed upon market price okay we we'll

put the transaction through we'll we'll

trade that $2 billion with you uh and

and you'll still see that on blockchain

but you won't see that necessarily on on

like you know somebody put in limit

order by $2 billion Bitcoin you'd see

these giant candles up or somebody put 2

billion sell you'd see these giant

candlesticks down instead you're just

matching a buy and seller at probably

roughly what market price is and then

you can see the volume but the price

doesn't move that's just an example of

how this sort could potentially work

that's at least how these I guess maybe

a better word than um uh dark poool

would be to call it uh block

transactions right uh this is this is

frequently done on Wall Street and so it

can be done in crypto as well uh just

basically manually arranging a buyer and

a seller very very

common so what does this actually mean

though for the long term well uh a

Bitcoin sell down Michael sailor

believes would actually be totally fine

for micro strategy because they say that

even if they had to pay their bonds back

and the company value went down because

Bitcoin went down they would just be

able to pay people back in cheaper micro

strategy

stock I don't know what Michael sailor

is smoking but that's not how bonds

work when you sell convertible bonds

you're promising to pay people back in

cash uh when the Bonds

mature well unless you have the cash

you're going to have to sell your stock

at a lower level to pay people back in

that cash they're not going to take

micro strategy stock at a lower

level most of the convertible bonds that

I've been studying for micro strategy

all have conversion prices that are way

higher than where they are now the last

time I looked at a micro strategy Bond

it had conversion prices for like 2028

at like

$650 and so if it didn't convert at 650

people get their cash back well how are

you going to pay people back if the

stock is

$200 well that's probably a lot easier

than if the stock is

$25 so that's going to be something to

pay attention to in the next cycle

that's not to be bearish Bitcoin it's

actually to be bearish micro

strategy same that's uh they've set

themselves up for quite a lot of debt at

a at a higher cost basis right so that's

going to be something to pay attention

to all right so now we've talked

artificial intelligence Bitcoin we need

to talk housing

so see housing out there I'm a big

fan but it depends on the location right

now Florida and Texas and many parts of

the country including some parts of DC

are going

through a supply shock more inventory is

coming on the market at the beginning of

the year than buyers are showing

up that is a positive Supply shock which

typically leads to a reduction in

prices that creates an opportunity and

that is where I personally see an

opportunity to move more of my own money

into house hack yes I do selfish plug I

suppose but here's what I love about

house hack first of all our reg should

be out within the next week or two we'll

probably talk to course members about it

first but but I I'm not sure how long

it'll be it could be even longer so this

video is not a solicitation because

there's there's nothing to do right

now but what we'll probably do is keep

doing what we've been doing which is

when we raise money we buy real estate

where we can get it for a discount that

protects us if the market goes down but

it means we are one of the buyers during

a panic period we're raising cash we pay

out our our uh rental yield it's about

5% so we pay that out

uh and if we can grow the value of the

company you get that upside as well

that's basically what we do but I just

buy fixer ERS go around the country buy

fix ERS and we expand the business right

now we're pretty heavy West Coast but

we're looking to expand towards Texas

and Florida and we actually think we

don't know if that time is right now but

we think soon there will be an

opportunity to start buying the dip on

Texas and Florida I think we're getting

closer to that buy the dipo opportunity

it might still be a year but we're

getting closer uh event they'll bottom

out uh and uh and then also develop adus

so I'm a big fan of real estate now

aside from from talking about house hack

why do I think real estate is so

interesting right

now well I believe that if the market

truly is slowing down then interest

rates are going to plummet in fact I

think that in the longer term we'll

probably see interest rates come all the

way down to the 30-year mortgage will be

lower than

2% we'll end up having a 40 or 50e

mortgage it'll be under

3% we'll have lower 30-year mortgage

rates than we've ever had before I think

we are heading into more of a

deflationary spiral rather than uh an

inflationary second wave so I think

these these concerns that like credit

agricult have about oh we're going into

stagnation because January's inflation

report was slightly high whatever

dude you can believe that and and look

if there's deflation and a recession you

know what'll do really well as gold but

I actually think we'll have deflation

and

recession which means bonds will do well

gold could do well because of the

recession aspect but but you'll lose the

inflation

buyers so real estate is very

interesting though because if you can

own

assets that uh that are sensitive to

interest rates this is why I like rock

and mortgage United Wholesale I think

some of these are near Rock Bottom I'm

not saying they're at their bottom yet

but they're near Rock Bottom uh end

phase uh you know um uh

housing these are assets that I think

can do really well when rates

plummet and if the stock market slows

down because the economy is starting to

slow down and institutions are starting

to see the red

flags and that ends up leading to

layoffs then yeah it's just a matter of

time for rates to plummet uh and so you

want to sort of preposition and and pre-

anticipate some of

that

so that's my take and uh if you want

more details and Analysis from me make

sure you're part of the courses huge

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kevin.com course member live streams

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long-term short-term real estate stocks

we cover it

all really encourage you check it out go

to Meek kevin.com thank you so much for

being here folks and uh hope to be

better soon still feel a little under

the weather I'm going to have some

coffee now and uh we'll see you in the

next one appreciate yall see you goodbye

and good luck