Tesla Stock | DO THIS NOW.
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this is Mission critical Tesla has 37
days left to do this and it is
exceptionally critical that it happens
it is important for the long-term vision
of Tesla's sustainable future the
success of full self-driving and
autonomy the success of Robotics folks
we've got to do this now here's my
suggestion and I encourage everyone in
the Tesla Community to consider what I'm
suggesting consider it first don't just
share consider it first and then if you
like the idea share it which I have a
feeling you're going to like it and
here's exactly why Tesla needs to do it
I'll start with that this quarter is
going to suck remember January 1st is a
massive Cliff for Tesla but it's the
reverse of normal years so you literally
have opposite seasonality which is
really bad in the short term it suggests
that people are better off buying a
Tesla January 1st than they are buying
in this quarter because if they buy in
this quarter they have to wait wait
until their tax return to get the $7,500
tax credit if they buy Jan one they
could get it directly via the new IRS
rules which allow that tax deduction or
credit rather to be received by the
dealer and given to the customer at the
time of purchase some people are like oh
well you know doesn't that hurt Tesla
because then it takes Tesla a year and a
half to get that credit no it takes them
90 days to get that credit because
corporations file quarterly simple
anyway here is the idea Tesla should
immediately introduce an FSD at purchase
discount to maximize its take rate Tesla
should offer
$5,000 at a new car purchase compared to
the $112,000 it currently costs after or
at current purchase there should be a
brief 30-day period for existing owners
this means the entire fleet of frankly
millions of vehicles that do not have
FSD have a massive incentive today to
flick the switch and adopt full
self-driving immediately for a cost of
just
$55,000 but there is another option as
well we'll get to that first there has
to be a massive reward for day one
adopters like when you say you have the
biggest sale ever it should be the
biggest sale ever uh by the way don't
buy anything at meetkevin.com on
Thursday yet wait until we actually have
a really big reward going up Friday for
Black Friday so stay tuned this is like
the only time I'm going to tell you
don't buy uh and if you bought in the
last few days don't worry we've got the
same special surprise for you you'll get
taken care of we we love all of you okay
always trying to provide more value but
anyway there has to be a big wedge
between day one adopters that big sale
and reality because that's actually
giving people real value same thing we
like to do with the courses tomorrow
Black Friday but anyway we estimate that
this would likely 5x the current take
rate the current estimated is believed
to estimated take rate is about 7% Tesla
doesn't disclose it anymore the last
time we got 7% was actually Q3 of 2022
so frankly this take rate number could
be like 4% right now which would like 9x
the take rate and here's the thing if
you actually enable this consider the
math on just new vehicle sales on 2
million Vehicles this is like a lever
folks it's a lever that Elon can pull he
just needs to pull it okay take the ego
off the shelf and pull the lever I don't
actually think Elon has a bad ego I I
actually think he's relatively
reasonable and willing to fall on the
sword on many things uh and uh I
actually don't know that this is taking
the ego off the shelf I actually think
this is extremely logical and I think if
he hears it hopefully he will he'll
agree because I I think he's a very very
intelligent and smart person uh and uh
and and he'll see the light of this
consider this this for a moment on 2
million Vehicles sold per year at 28%
more take rate that's the marginal
difference between you know 7% and 35
but it could be even greater uh that's
immediately $2.8 billion of additional
profit per year which works out to about
90 cents of additional EPS in 2024
increasing Tesla's earnings per share by
22.8% that is massive I mean just
consider that for a moment if right now
Tesla is
$230 and you have a an EPS Target of
let's say
$3.95 that means Tesla's trading for
58.3 times you increase EPS 22.8% to 484
that PE ratio drops to 47 and the PEG
ratio gets even more desirable the PEG
ratio would be down at
1.35 yeah now some people are like oh
this is just a short-term benefit wrong
and we're not even done yet with the
suggestion this would not be a
short-term benefit this would be a
massive long-term Catalyst because you
have to understand this every Tesla that
sells without FSD is a Tesla that may
end up in the scrapyard never having had
FSD it's crazy imagine okay I maybe this
is a little crude but okay most of us
are dudes around here and the women who
are around here you know what they'll
probably appreciate the analogy imagine
when you turn 18 you have to
decide to have sex with women or to
never have sex with women and then once
you make that decision you can never go
back that's kind of the analogy we're
making or the analogy is kind of
applicable I believe to FSD because it's
either you buy now at five grand or
you're probably never going to do it
because 12 Grand is excessive now I know
a lot of people are like okay well so
first of all the adoption rate will
probably
Skyrocket uh maybe even substantially
higher than the estimate estimate that
we have of
35% but there is a potential that when
that decision is made at purchase that
it's almost like there will be some
vehicles that never ever ever have FSD
and that's true because think about it
somebody buys it has it for 7 years they
never get FSD they sell it to somebody
else and then that person never buys FSD
7 years later maybe the car ends up as
scrap it went its entire life
without you get it you get it right so
point is that's lost potential Revenue
if you could minimize that up front then
that's exactly what you should do
especially since it's nearly 100% profit
it costs Tesla essentially zero on the
margin to do
this so this not just helps 2024 it not
just helps Q4 which Q4 is is going to be
a problem especially you know since
usually we have a Q4 Rush right now
we're having like the Q4 anti- rush if
anything you'd have more of a q1 push
than a Q4 push because of this tax
benefit change it's a big problem and
and keep in mind this is not only a
long-term solution but it also benefits
Tesla you have more capital for Tesla to
advance Optimist and invest in FSD
technology more you have more Capital
available to scale factories faster you
get more users actually using FSD so
more data you benefit shareholders you
benefit the long run mission of Tesla I
also believe that the market has priced
in the value of FSD at
$33,000 that's what I believe that's
$3,000 for some reason this is
apparently turning this into Euros as
well so €
2,750 that's what I think the value of
FSD is based on analyzing the UK's car
market okay so if you consider the 's
car market and the value of FSD is
$3,000 then somebody who pays 12 for it
is basically signing up for an immediate
depreciation of
$9,000 whereas if somebody pays five
they're only facing resale depreciation
or loss of about 2,000 now that's
actually pretty reasonable now you
substantially reduce the purchaser risk
of opting into FSD thus reducing the
desire of people to just turn on and off
Tesla FSD for $200 a month also consider
this at $200 per month your offsetting
break even is at at $5,000 $5,000
divided by 200 is just 25 months at
$112,000 the break even is 60 months so
do you want to break even in 2 years
buying it versus having a subscription
or in 60 months in 5 years well come on
by 5 years people have already upgraded
and moved on instead now you motivate
people to actually buy it because you're
minimizing their resale risk what you
could also potentially do is offer a
$300 subscription option where you
include $100 of principal payments
towards FSD so then you have it you you
make the $300 subscription payment for 5
years and then you own FSD when you do
the $300 option if you do the $200
option you never actually end up owning
it that actually reduces your monthly
cost if the resale value is $3,000 to
just about $150 per month it's actually
a better deal to pay Tesla more per
month in this
example so I highly encourage people to
consider tagging Elon Musk or friends at
Tesla uh you know I love Tesla I love
the community I really have massively
high hopes for Tesla I'm literally am
putting my money where my mouth is you
know some people are like oh you know
Kevin you know one day you're like oh
this is a big Catalyst for Tesla which
is true all the other electric vehicle
manufacturers sucking and scaling back
their production is a huge Catalyst for
Tesla and then I see comments like oh in
the next day you're like uh this is
short-term bearish both of those can be
true this isn't flip-flopping we have a
short-term massively bearish Catalyst we
are in Q4 which will go down down as the
highest interest rates ever that Tesla
sold cars in ever in the life of Tesla's
existence Q4 2023 will go down as the
highest interest rates ever combined
with a tax benefit to wait until Jan 1
Q4 is going to suck unless we pull a
lever here now I realize some people be
think shortterm think again every car
that doesn't have FSD day one is a car
that potentially never has sex I mean
never has FSD ever that long-term hurts
Tesla so what about those who paid
$112,000 in my opinion first of all
you're not guaranteed any kind of
benefit to or like price guarantee you
are with me Kevin if you buy the courses
but again don't do that today uh so
instead with FSD what you could offer is
some kind of reasonable referral credits
there's no guarantee with FSD that
prices won't go down but hey if you give
people like $20,000 in referral credits
they could buy some Tesla tequila and
they can drink over it you know they
could they could really you know think
about life with the Tesla hoodie or
whatever the Tesla hoodie is actually
really nice it's really good and it
reminds people it's like literally
built-in advertising it literally
reminds people oh yeah I could use my
referral link and refer people to Tesla
so you're literally creating advertising
not just with the news of the FSD effort
but also the referral credit part so in
my opinion this could be the best ad
that Tesla makes this holiday season I
know Tesla will hear us if we work as a
community to share the message so you
know like share repost retweet whatever
screenshot and tag Elon whatever it
takes make Q4 the best quarter ever #
i'mot leaving I also have a screenshot
version of this so like if you want to
take a screenshot of this as one post uh
and that would make it easier to share
it's right here just like screenshot now
and then crop it and that's an option
for you stay tuned for the Black Friday
sale which I'm excited for uh let me
look at some of the other replies that
we have here uh let's see here so
waiting until robot toxy I don't think
we're going to see robotx until 2030 so
I think that's a mistake this literally
benefits FSD forever so anybody telling
you this is just like a short-term thing
is is nonsense uh and then the idea of
Tesla being compute constrained is quite
frankly offset by them having more
Capital if they have more Capital you
could pay a premium over the other
people trying to get chips okay so
screenshot and share this pull the lever
uh some people here a lot of people here
saying FSD isn't good enough to justify
$112,000 a lot of comments about this
it's not even worth $10,000 people say
so people are starting to have a
conversation about this let me know what
you think thanks so much for watching
bye I not advertise these things that
you told us here I feel like nobody else
knows about this we'll we'll try a
little advertising and see how it goes
congratulations man you have done so
much people love you people look up to
you Kevin P there financial analyst and
YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get
your
take even though I'm a licensed
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affiliations or products or Services
which we may benefit from I personally
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hold long positions in VAR ious
Securities potentially including those
mentioned in this video however I have
no relationship to any issuers other
than house act nor am I presently acting
as a market
maker
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