The Tesla Announcement & Selloff.

Tesla stock is absolutely getting

whacked today, which comes on the same

day that Tesla is announcing the

integration hopefully of Apple CarPlay

into Tesla's, which of course I

anticipate will be very exciting. I'm

very excited about it and will probably

come as a software update. No

guarantees. We'll see. Maybe Elon will

flip-flop on it. But I have to say

yesterday I drove the Mercedes Sprinter

van with Max as we were going to a bunch

of house hack properties and

dude I mean first of all I missed FSD

but Apple CarPlay was clutch. Really

like it. I got on the phone with Lauren

and I'm like hey Lauren you said the

Sprinter doesn't have as many cool dads

as the Tesla. Which is true because it

doesn't have FSD or whatever. Did you

know it had CarPlay? And she's like oh I

I had no idea it had CarPlay. That's

great. At least it has something cuz the

Sprinter van is kind of like a shell,

right? It's not supposed to have all

these cool features. It's like a utility

vehicle, right? Either cargo van or

family van for us. It's family car. We

got seven kids. Which is why like I wish

Tesla would make a Sprinter van cuz

look, we got the Black X, we got the

Cybert truck, we got the Model S Plaid.

Uh what else? We We don't have a Y or a

three, but we love Teslas. Big big fans.

So, we would love to buy a Tesla

Sprinter van. But anyway, so I was I was

talking to Lloyd about that yesterday.

I'm like, "Yeah, no, Apple CarPlay is

great. It's easy for me to turn on

music. I don't have to sync the stupid

Bluetooth. It's like much faster than

the Tesla. Uh the navigation is

integrated much more easily." So, I'm

kind of excited about Apple CarPlay

because it's just an extension almost of

your phone. Now,

this is great for Tesla users, but what

does it mean for Tesla stock? You know,

we just had this buddy on Bloomberg uh

who works, I guess, with Ed Lello, and

he's like, "Oh, you know, there have

been people who haven't been buying

Teslas because of CarPlay."

Full stop Sorry, Mr.

Bloomberg. I don't think people don't

buy a Tesla because it doesn't have

CarPlay. I think, you know, and I've

been promoting Tesla since 2017. I think

people buy Tesla because of not only

like the lifestyle, but that association

that you have with full self-driving,

safety, sustainability, and fast. I

mean, this is like this is like

everything you want. Fast car, safe car,

energy efficient. Like everything about

it is like this is perfect. Like why

would you not buy it, right? And then

the full self-driving is world class for

the United States. I do think we have a

lot of ads competition coming with, you

know, Nvidia plays over time. Uh

especially what we're seeing in China.

Like we should be really grateful we

don't import Chinese cars because

there'll be a lot more competition for

Tesla. Especially with what you're

seeing with Xping with their robot demo.

Like holy smokes. So you all saw that

robot demo where it's like, dude, is

that is that robot real? Like is it a

human? And then they unzip it and it's a

robot. I'll pull it up and show it in

just a moment. But we got to talk about

like Tesla stock. Uh, and so we're going

to do that and sort of like trajectories

here in the in the near term. This was

the Xping robot demo and dude, people

are looking at this like, dude, that's

for sure a human in in that suit cuz

this is insane. Like look how smoothly

it walks and they gave it tits and I'm

like, bro, like can you can you give

guys anything more than they want?

>> Welcome. Nice to have you.

>> So you want to talk about love making,

right?

>> I mean like this is amazing. So they're

like the Chinese are really competing

hard on robotics versus us and and like

literally in that demo they go up on the

stage. You could see it. They go up on

the stage and start like opening it up

to prove that it's actually a robot. And

it's insane because they knew it was so

impressive. If somebody's like it's just

a one-legged actor. Well, actually in

another segment they because I think

people thought that they also ripped

open its chest. You know, there's also a

you know a demo here where you see it

walking as with just its exoskeleton

which is crazy. Uh I mean then they show

it literally in this Terminator style

body. This is wild dude. That hip

movement. Look at that hip. And I mean,

I love looking at hips of robots, of

course. Um, yeah. So, like that hip. I

mean, who nah, never mind. Nobody would

look at a hip. Anyway, so the Chinese

are kicking butt. The problem is, look,

what's the reality for Tesla stock here

in the near term? Okay, so let's talk

about this.

Over the last few weeks, I've made

videos on this. You can go back and

watch them. I said that the biggest

bearish catalyst for Tesla is actually

the comp plan

passing and then the aftermath

because see the most bullish catalyst is

the leadin this comp plan is going to

pass. So what happens traders short-term

traders flood into Tesla stock. So the

stock pumps up to like a 470 value.

Okay. I actually sold a little bit of

Tesla stock at like 455 and sent an

alert to course members because I'm

like, we know what's going to happen

after uh this, you know, the comp plan

passes. It's going to go back down to

414. I've been saying it for weeks. You

know, you could get the alpha report

over at me.com and you could see my

rationalization for this. But my

expectation is that at the same time as

we're getting all this government

nervousness around data, traders are

going to exit Tesla and take profits

near all-time highs. This is also

understandable. People also want to

diversify, right? Like you could have

been in Tesla since 2017, like some of

the shares that I have, and it's like

you've got huge gains on them. Uh I just

got a message. Uh also, heads up, an

investor told me yesterday the reason

they invested in House Hack was because

markets are coming off all-time highs

and they wanted to diversify into real

estate with the gains they had from

stocks. Good for them. That was cool.

That was an investor in in uh House

Hacker Reinvest, not a solicitation.

Read the disclosures over at

househack.com or reinvest.co. Same

company. Uh, and it totally makes sense.

So, a lot of I think this short-term

price action that you're seeing in Tesla

is traders moving out of the stock. And

that's actually going to create an

opportunity for longerterm investors to

increase their Q without worrying about

the P, right? Increase increase quantity

without worrying about the P. Now, there

is also though a realistic problem with

Tesla and and so I just want to be real

like real with everybody here. Tesla is

fundamentally very expensive right now.

we are essentially fully pricing in uh a

robotic and humanoid future and Tesla is

the most like pure play investment that

you can get into humanoid robotics right

now. So I get it like I invested into

Appronic uh both myself personally and

with the VC uh firm that we run and we

invested into that as sort of a

diversifier play into private market

robotics sort of before what we thought

the big robotics boom would be. And so

I'm not in disbelief that robots are the

future, but Tesla's really your pure

play opportunity to to go allin on

robots and a robotic future because

that's what Elon's telling us that

robotics are the future. So you have to

go in here and in order to justify Tesla

$400, you have to take it, you know, we

go, this last one I wrote, I did end of

2030, put in 4 million vehicles, which

is still double the vehicles we do

today. put in Optimize, you know, put in

what? Two million Optimus, uh, uh, you

know, whatever at $25,000 a piece, let's

call it. Put in two million Optimus, and

you have to put in a sexy margin here.

Let's assume, by the way, that built

into the margin for the cars is FSD. So,

I'm purposefully putting, you know, FSD

at zero because I kind of think in order

to get to 4 million cars, just include

the FSD. Like, let that be part of that.

And I'm not going to price in robo taxi

right now just so we can see what the

numbers look like. But we've gone

through these numbers before, right? 4

million cars, 2 million Optimus robots

by 2030, we're at a 315 price at a 50p

ratio. You know, if I do this as a

software play, I have to run this as a

software play to get to 491,

but it's not a software play right now.

Now, if we throw in robo taxi revenues,

great, maybe. But I'm always concerned

that robo taxis are going to kind of

compress that you're not going to get a

lot of benefit from robo taxi. actually

still maintain that Tesla should buy

Lyft. Uh so like I I don't want to be

say I'm like bearish on Tesla longterm,

but like right now we're losing the

trader catalyst, which is yay, stock

plan's going to pass. Now we go back to

fundamentals. And the fundamentals right

now aren't great. I don't actually think

people are going to buy Teslas because

they have Apple CarPlay. I think it is

long needed and it's needed for Teslas.

But I actually think you should buy a

Lyft. Now I don't run Tesla. Maybe

that's a good thing, you know, whatever.

But it's a $9 billion company. It's a

drop in the bucket for Tesla. Drop in

the bucket for Tesla. And I've made this

argument for like a year now. Okay,

Tesla's a $ 1.1 trillion company. Why

would you buy Lyft? Distribution.

Tesla can make a great app. I know that

their software is freaking fire. Okay,

but what you need is distribution. You

need normal everyday humans that go,

"Oh, I need a taxi." and they open up

Uber on their phone and you want to

distribute robo taxis on Uber on Lyft.

Why not just buy Lyft and have all of

those users yourself? You can now

prioritize Tesla robo taxis as you

expand. You can increase your expansion

much faster. You don't have to get

people to download the Tesla robo taxi

app and have yet another taxi app. So,

if you think about it, like if you're,

you know, if you're at a bar and you're

like, I'm drunk. I need to get a taxi,

go home, or whatever. The first thing

you're going to do is you're going to go

to your reaction. It's probably going to

be Uber even though you might know like

like not everybody is is a big, you

know, Tesla fan. Like people aren't

watching Tesla videos every day uh who

just want a taxi ride, right? So you

pull up Uber and you don't really care

if it's a Whimo or human. You just want

to get home. You know, maybe the next

choice is Lyft. But I think Tesla's

going to be pretty far down the list in

terms of people having that muscle

memory of, oh yeah, I want to order a

Tesla. mostly because right now we don't

actually have, you know, the market

distribution on where these vehicles

are. Now, of course, there's a lot of

debate like yesterday, how do you say

her name? Dedra Debosa or whatever. She

was getting absolutely reamed on Tesla

uh because of her uh comment yesterday

about um the number of miles that Tesla

has driven on um I think I saved it

here. I'll pull it up on autopilot uh or

or sort of like full self-driving and

she was getting reamemed because people

are pissed because they see the rate of

change of Tesla's distribution for robo

taxis as as the game changer right

because Tesla is able to expand quickly

with a human driver now this isn't we're

not going to go into like what is it

what's her dedra doa seems we're not

going to get into like a LAR comparison

or whatever none of that stuff matters

right now what matters is that we are at

a phase days of Tesla cycle. Oh

she follows me. No way. Look at that.

Draos, see Draabosa.

That's it. I always hear it wrong. But

anyway. Oh, that's cool. Small world.

But anyway, here I'm just the messenger,

she wrote, right? Whimo fully autonomous

miles 100 uh million miles. Uh and then

Tesla miles with human safety monitor uh

1.25 million. Now obviously does that

does include FSD and stuff but we are

just moving in a cycle right now from

trade momentum around stock plan to

fundies and fundies are going to take a

while to prove. You know obviously this

is where people are like shouting out

these sort of headlines like here's a

headline from 2007 iPhone versus

BlackBerry. I I had the iPhone 1 by the

way uh and game changer. Like the iPhone

was such a freaking gamecher and this is

why people promote like this rate of

change of the robo taxi expansion. I

agree like Tesla's going to blow up in

service area on all of these and I

actually think they can promote that

much faster with Lyft. That's why I

think like you not only get you could

expand the Tesla robo taxi fleet even

with the human safety monitor nationwide

and get people who want the rides if you

own Lift overnight, dude. overnight

freaking game changer and it's a drop in

the bucket for Tesla stock. Uh Tesla

investors will probably rally around it

and everybody who owns Lyft would make a

big buck. Honestly, I think the cheapest

way to get robo taxi exposure right now

is probably Lyft. Like I don't own Lyft.

I'm not like trying to pump my bags or

anything here. I don't own a single

share of Lyft. Like I own more Tesla

than I own Lyft because I own zero Lyft.

Uh and Lyft is doing some you know fib

retracing over here which is quite nice.

you know, it just broke out of the 22

level. It's a very inexpensive company.

It's a fraction of the value of Uber

because it has also a fraction of the

revenue and a fraction of the uh you

know, distribution. But yeah, I mean, I

hate to say it, but in the like in my

alpha reports, uh in the membership, I

was talking about Tesla will be going to

414. I mean, obviously hashtag no

guarantees, but I was like 90% confident

we were going to go back to 414 after

the share plan. And that's not to be

bearish on it. It's just traders get

out. Okay, this right here is traders

getting in. Now traders get out. We

could stabilize around 350 again. So in

other words, are there going to be dip

by opportunities? Yes. Part of it is

going to be fundamental. Part of it's

also just going to be like what happens

with the economy. You know, if we get a

cra I hate to say it, but if we get a

crap show of jobs data that comes out

over the next few months, yeah, Tesla's

going to get hit as well. So there is a

probably near-term window that you're

going to be seeing Tesla at a discount.

And that is not trying to be long-term

bearish Tesla. It's just you're on

fundamentals which are elevated and you

got government data people are going to

be nervous about. So Apple CarPlay is

fantastic. Buying lift fantastic you

know future of robo taxi I'm hopeful I'm

not you know I like my robo taxi drive.

Uh did you all see Carpathy's tweet on

FSD? Uh but if you type in meet Kevin

robo taxi you could see the video. It

was actually very smooth when I went

through and I did this tour right here.

Tesla robo taxi. This changes

everything. This was actually a

fantastic experience. And you don't see

the whole video because, you know, it

was like a 45minute drive around. But

I'm with Ellie and I'm just chatting

with Ellie in in the back of the uh uh

the robo taxi and uh you know we're

we're just talking about like random

things and she's like how come you're

not nervous that nobody's in the

driver's seat and it's probably just

because I've been you know trusting in

Tesla's autopilot since

you know what 2017. So, we're coming up

on eight years of me doing this this

autopilot uh stuff, and it's awesome. Uh

like, it's just a really good

technology. I'm a really big fan of it.

Now, obviously, there are going to be

cases that you run into situations like

obviously we had a U-turn there to a

police roadblock, but those edge cases

are true, too. When I'm driving, you

know, it's like, you know, you're going

to be good on the highway like 99% of

the time, and then you come up to those

weird turns and you're like, I'll just

drive it here, right?

probably doesn't help the algorithm

actually learn, but I'm a big fan of of

uh the technology and I don't think you

could poop on it. I just hope Elon

really gets into more models. Uh not

women.

I think he's got plenty of that going

on. Uh but uh new models, Sprinter van,

I don't think the Cyber Cap is going to

be a big seller. I think the Cyber Cab

is a mistake. Uh and not for FSD

purposes. Like if you want to go cyber

cab for robo taxi, great. You know, this

is his profile picture right now, his

pee pe on on uh um X. And I think that

the Cyber Cap is a mistake for mass

production. I think you should be doing

a four-door, four- seat vehicle, a

twodoor, two seat vehicle. Uh only like

wealthy people who have money sitting

around are going to buy this. Uh and

it's not going to be a good selling

vehicle.

Unfortunately, it would probably be like

the Cybertruck, which a Cybertruck is a

great car. like I will shield the Cybert

truck any damn day. It's just not going

to sell well. So, it sucks. Uh so, more

models is really what they should be

focused on and and I don't know if we're

going to get that focus there. Now,

Tesla also did vote down the XAI

funding, which I actually advocated for

advoc I advocated for voting down the XA

funding. I do not think that Tesla, a

public vehicle with great funding,

should be investing in a private money

losing enterprise like XAI. Not only do

I think you're competing against

commodities, there's nothing unique

anymore about Grock over Copilot or GPT,

like they're all converging to the same

end. GPT is already seeing their user

growth slow down. And so Tesla

shareholders, I think, were smart to

vote down Tesla investing in XAI. Now,

there's this rumor that XAI is raising

another $15 billion, which of course

Elon Musk is saying is false, but he

always does this. You know, it's

probably because it's more. You know, he

might be raising more money. He might be

raising $18 billion and he calls it

false. Or he's uh, you know, raised a

dollar less and he calls it false. You

know, he could find any little loophole

to say why this is false. He did this

with the cancellation of the Model 2

basically as well when Reuters was

talking about it. So, you have to take

this with a grain of salt. Um, you know,

his his comments in terms of why it's

false. But I do think that a Tesla

should not be investing in a private

company that is losing money handover

fist without disclosed financials. Like

if XAI was so great go public then

retail could invest directly into XAI.

But I don't think Tesla should do that.

I think Tesla should take that money and

instead of investing in XAI make a new

model like a Sprinter van. So that's my

take. So short-term, there's a reason to

be bearish, not just economically and

data-wise, but you know, just

fundamentally for Tesla. Uh, so this is

expected. We knew this was coming. We've

talked about it on channel. We talked

about on the alpha report. It's not a

surprise and serious investors are going

to look at this and go, "Hey, you know,

it'll create an opportunity to buy it

cheaper if you're really long-term

bullish Tesla." Uh, you know, some

people are going to wait until the

valuation aligns a little bit more with

fundamentals and take it from there. But

broadly, this is my take and I still

think they should buy Lyft. So that's my

take on what the hell is happening with

Tesla.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Papra there, financial analyst and

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

get your take.